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Somebody already pointed out it is time for management to show that they have some faith in this stock. With all the salary that they make can they not come up with say $50,000 and buy some shares at these prices?
I would not expect Diwan to do the buying since he just raised money to invest in facility. But what about Seymour? He talks so much about how much he believes in this stock. Seymour, if you do not have the cash, take some loans, but come on buy NNVC stock. If you buy some stock it will put a floor under the stock. If you do not buy any stock at these prices, it will just show that you only talk to support this technology and do not have faith that it will succeed.
Seeker
I also think it is Seaside dumping. We had already known that at these depressed levels any selling will lead to severely depressed prices. Still NNVC took a chance and decided to raise $5 million. In my opinion it was a very bad move. So now Seaside gets all these share at prices which are below market prices. Seaside is no long term investor, they just want 15%. So they go right out and sell the new shares in the market. Now we are seeing the result.
Seaside has no choice either. They do not want to hold this stock long term, they got to sell it at whatever prices they can get. This is not Seaside's problem, it is the problem of owners of NNVC shares. Seymour does not seem to understand this clearly. More than us it is Diwan and Seymour who will suffer due to this horrible decision.
Seeker
>> So, do you think SS88 was unaware of this when they agreed to another $5 million in funding at under $1 <<
I have no idea what Seaside was thinking. Personally I did not know that the volume would die out so badly. Not that it matters much to me.
Seeker
I suspect Seaside may be crying. The stock trading volume is so pathetic that Seaside has no way to sell stock into the market. I think they just wanted to pocket the 15% and sell the stock. However, right now there is no way they can do that. If they sell the number of shares they have bought the stock would just tank.
This situation is very similar to China and US$. China owns such a huge quantity of dollars (more than half a trillion). Now if they actually try to get rid of the dollars and convert it into yuan, the value of dollar would sink and yuan would appreciate. That is exactly apposite of what China wants to happen since the sinking dollar would reduce the value of China's US$ holding.
If Seaside sells into this market and value of NNVC stock goes down, their own stock has lost value. We are also in the same boat as Seaside now. Who knows how this will turn out. If Saeside is unable to sell for say several months, they would be very unhappy.
Seeker
"Management may also realize that there are developments coming soon that will counter any Seaside selling."
I sure hope so.
The problem is even when the management recognizes that the valuation is so low they still decided to do all this additional selling through Seaside. The stock is trading at such low volume that this additional selling can be a problem. I am hoping that there are investors who understand the low valuation and will be ready to step in now. I got in too early.
What is this Cox pump- I understand it is caused by Cox's bullish articles, but ever since I have been with NNVC, which is not long, I do not seem to have seen any Cox pumps. When did the last one occur and what sort of PPS effect did it have?
Seeker
Sell order at .985 may not matter. The stock has not reached that level so far.
Despite the slight slide in price, I am seeing some buying interest today. The stock has sold at ask several times.
The Pfizer guy said:
"While the technology and proposed approach is interesting, it has yet to achieve proof of concept in the clinic. "
In the clinic means in human trials to me.
Even if there was a person at Pfizer keeping an eye on NNVC, somebody else bringing NNVC to the attention of the boss helps. Such people are lokoing at numerous companies. Which one to bring up now? NNVC? Why? Something else brings up NNVC and then the discussion can go forward. If a large company was to make a small investment in NNVC, it would be a big deal. At least this selling through Seaside will stop.
The volume completely died. 6,400 shares so far today, worse than even yesterday.
Thanks, Gary.
Looks like we still have not seen the reversal. The lower volume signal is present, but the reversal must be crystal clear to buy such a trading pattern. I look forward to your future post on this subject.
Seeker
Gary,
You abviously know much more about NNVC technicals than I do. I look forward to your analysis once the stock charts are available. I was able to look at the chart on Etrade and still do not understand the importance of 0.95 and 1.01. So you must understand them better.. Do you have any links for descending wedge pattern so that I could figure it?
Seeker
Bunny,
I seriously doubt Seaside has a delay between converting into actual shares and selling them. I think they just want to make money on their 15%. Now if they delay between conversion and selling, the share price could go down by 15% and they would not be able to pocket 15%. Why would they take risk? They are not long term shareholders like we are. So I think they convert and immediately sell as soon as practical. You will note that the last installment of conversion happened on Oct 14 and it was a very small conversion. Have you noted the serious drop in trading volume. I think it is just because at this time Seaside does not have much to sell.
Note that even today somebody tried to sell. The share price fell to 0.78 momentarily and recovered. If Diwan felt that sub $1 price was too low to sell, the result will be a gap in the next Seaside contract. That will give the stock price time to recover. The last few contracts have been one right after another. I suspect there will be a delay here to let the stock price recover.
There is definitely a big demand for NNVC shares. All this time that Seaside has been selling the share price has not just plummeted. If their was no demand we would see that Seaside selling had a disastorous effect on stock price. I personally have bought over 200K shares, there must be many more like me.
Seeker
Question is whether they will start another cycle of selling through Seaside. They have mentioned that they have enough money until about end of next year. However, they also mentioned that they need lot more money to complete all work before FDA filings. So essentially they need to raise more money, even though they have enough for now. If they start raising money through Seaside stock sales at these price levels it will seriously depress stock prices.
My best guess is that they do not wish to raise money at these price levels so we should see some immediate relief. This guess is based on what Diwan did. He did not complete stock sales that he had said he would do. Instead he stopped the sales prematurely and decided to raise more money through loans. My guess is that means they think sub $1 prices are too low and do not wish to sell at such depressed prices.
Seeker
Thanks, Gary
Do not overreact.
It is just one page missing in the 10K filing. It will be fixed today. Anybody can make a mistake, we are all human beings. Seymour has already said it will get fixed today. Let us be sensible.
The stock is certainly not halted. It is trading as NNVCE.ob. The current situation is
bid/ask .885/.915
last 0.91
volume - 16,700
Seeker
GaryR,
Since you understand NNVC trading patterns much better than I do, I have a question for you. When NNVC was trading in the $1 to $1.10 range recently there was enough volume. I was amazed how high the volume was. Then it fell below $1 and the volume vanished. So do you think that $1-$1.10 range was an extreme and investors were getting out of it and now that it has fallen below $1 it is no longer an extreme and the trading has died down? The volume continues to amaze me.
Seeker
Seymour's reply:
Company that filed our 10K left out one page. That was refiled with the SEC this morning at 6am and symbol should revert to NNVC later today or tomorrow
Eugene Seymour, MD MPH
Chief Executive Officer
NanoViricides, Inc
310-486-5677
Clearly they use another company to file their SEC filings. The mistake must have been done that company.
Seeker
NNVC had applied for 10K extension and then subsequently filed the 10K. The symbol change should be related to that delay in filing the 10K.
I have asked Seymour what caused the symbol change. When I receive a reply I will post it here.
Seeker
Seymour's reply to this article:
I've already offered him some of our herpes drug for testing in their model ( once we find out more of the details of the study)
This results don't surprise me at all.
Wouldn't it be interesting if all one needed to avoid Alzheimer's would be a once a year treatment with an anti-herpes drug?
Nothing in science is outside of the realm of possibilities.
Yesterday, I was contacted by a physician/scientist who asked for my slides so she could use us as an example of a disruptive technology when giving her talk at the TED conference
Also, a well-known neurologist/immunologist feels that MS is caused by a virus and he'd like us to make a drug against what he feels is the offending virus.
As soon as we get the flu drug approved, these types of requests will accelerate
Sincerely
OK to publish
Eugene Seymour, MD MPH
Chief Executive Officer
NanoViricides, Inc
310-486-5677
If we have a lot of orders open in the 80s that will put a floor on the stock price. Still I had expected the stock to go above the $1 technical barrier. That did not happen. Looks like you will see your orders in 80s get filled soon. Hopefully, after that bottom test the stock will go above the $1 barrier.
What happened to all the volume? It was easy to break the $1 barrier on the way down. Now we are having trouble breaking it on the upside.
Dr. Seymour gave an excellent reply to my questions. Here is his reply.
Seeker
I read everything that's posted about NNVC anywhere on the Web
I understand the concerns of most investors who are watching the stock price slowly deteriorate in spite of nothing but positive results from the Company. The real indicator is the progress of the Company over the past 6 months. When we first started the Company 6 years ago, we had a long way to go. I now see the light at the end of the tunnel...dim but getting brighter by the day!
Groundbreaking results for HIV;
Groundbreaking results for influenza;
Successful deployment of optimization program to improve previously reported FluCide efficacies;
Dengue and herpes of the eye, skin and genitals studies in the works;
Acquisition of new 18,000 foot space;
Development of specifications for a cGMP plant to be built in the new facility. (Actually, the cGMP facility will be built to our specifications offsite, then delivered and installed in the new building. The company building the plant are experts in building cGMP facilities. We have experience with this because the Level 3 Biosafety facility that we used in Vietnam was paid for by the Japanese government, built in Sweden and shipped to the site in Hanoi where it was installed by technicians from the Swedish factory);
Hiring of premier FDA consulting firm;
On-going preparation of documents for the pre-IND submission, now with the assistance of the Biologics Consulting Group;
Acquisition of enough money now in the bank to bring the first drug into the FDA;
Personal guarantees by Dr. Diwan for the acquisition of the building, construction of the plant and outfitting both with the necessary equipment;
Now pursuing an international strategy for approvals in countries other than the US;
I was personally contacted by the Health Ministers of two countries who want us to bring FluCide to their countries for testing as soon as possible (we won't even consider those offers until we have production capabilities from the cGMP plant);
Multiple offers to address both scientific and investor groups (six accepted in Sept/Oct alone);
Not bad for a Company that spends a fraction of what other biotechs do. And speaking other other biotechs, just look at the $6B market cap of VRUS that has compounds in trials for Hep C and wants to out license their HIV drug. Essentially they're looking at one disease while we have 9 indications in our pipeline (IV and IM applications for FluCide), herpes of the skin, genitals and eyes, dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue fever, HIV and epidemic keratoconjunctivitis. I know that I'll get criticized by those who say we should focus. We are VERY focussed on getting FluCide into the FDA and as we've previously announced, we'll do our best to bring one new drug to the FDA every 6 months. It's the first one that's the tough one. After that, it should be a lot easier. Each one of these indications addresses a multi-billion dollar market.
Money is not holding us back. Everything that we're doing takes time, no matter how much money is available. Also, no one should repeat the 4 employee fiction. It just isn't true. All of that info will be available in the 10K. We are searching far and wide for qualified PhD's who don't need a lot of hand-holding to get up to speed. These people are more difficult to find than you can imagine. Credit our education system for sending too many people to Wall Street and not enough to the lab benches
There is a succession plan. My role will be to become the medical director/advisor and we'll bring in people who are experienced pharma executives to handle sales and production.
There has been a lot of talk surrounding September 30th and the pre-IND filing. As others on this Board have said, you only file when the dossier is absolutely ready. All of the data to be included in the filing comes from outside sources, something over which we have no control.
People worry about competing technologies....like the DRACO system from MIT. Read the scientific paper and then decide for yourselves whether or not they represent a challenge. They will then have to go through the same process as we will so no one can leapfrog to the front of the line. Our animal data is unassailable. Others have a long way to go to match what we've done over the past 6 years (and the 14 years prior that Dr. Diwan was working on this)!
Finally, in our favor, the trials are short for FluCide. After all, influenza is a time-limited disease from which you recover (unless you die as two of my friends and a number of my patients have already done...the latest 18 months ago from the H1N1 that was circulating in 2009. Dead in 24 hours). Initial human trials will take weeks, not months nor years
And here's a little note from the Chief Medical Officer of Sanofi with my comments following:
With healthcare costs under scrutiny, the pressure is on payers to understand the value of new products, Lehner noted. “That puts pressure on us early in development. We need new evidence in parallel with clinical trials: not just safety and efficacy, but also effectiveness.”
“Randomized trials are not going to be enough for payers in the future,” said Brian Sweet, executive director of development for AstraZeneca. “Being able to show proof that your drug is good for the healthcare cost system has never been more important than now.”
This is wonderful news for us, particularly with regard to the flu since I feel we can cut 5-6 days from the average length of hospitalization with FluCide!!! So whatever we charge, it's irrelevant because of the hospital days saved. For a sick elderly patient with the flu, I would imagine that the daily hospital costs in the ICU will exceed $5000 per day. Saving $25K while spending $2K for our drug is a no brainer (drug charges for the intravenous preparation for extremely ill patients and daily hospital costs are just estimates for the purpose of comparisons. Outpatient drug cost would be 10% of that figure {all estimates})
Hope that I have answered everyone's concerns
Sincerely,
EUGENE SEYMOUR, MD, MPH
Chief Executive Officer
NANOVIRICIDES, INC
Nanotechnology-based targeted anti-viral therapeutics
http://www.nanoviricides.com
eugene@nanoviricides.com
Seaside question - I have a question about Seaside. They have bought a lot of stock from NNVC. Are they allowed to sell it in the open market? Does Seaside have to file insider sales forms with SEC if they sell since they are a big shareholder by now?
Notreat, The technicals are terrible. Accumulation/Distribution is negative ever since April. We touched the previous low of $1 today. Still we have not reached the oversold condition in slow stochastic. If we do not hold $1 level, the stock could break a very strong support level.
In my opinion all this is just a result of sell off in small stocks. Generally that results in indiscriminate selling of all small stocks once the economic cycle has peaked. The small stocks that cannot hold their prices are then considered weak and more selling follows. If we get some good news we could easily turn direction.
It is ridiculous for NNVC to be subject to economic cycle. It should really be a news driven stock.
These companies act more like consultants. They give you advice, but you still have to do a lot of internal work. If the contract is such that the company will handle all issues related to FDA submissions, then NNVC may not need more poeple.
In most cases the companies want to employ personnel who do the detailed work. If those people are with the consulting company you lose control. Say you had consulting company deal with FDA. Then for some time you had less work, the consultant shifted people around. Now when you go back you have a different set of people. You have lost the personal touch, you just have documents as records.
I am sure the company has a growth plan. It will be good if we knew about it. I did e-mail Dr. S. the psotings. Let us see if he replies to it and if he agrees that it can be posted on the Ihub board.
I do not think they will hire a lot of people in the cGMP operation. We do need the facility and equipment. But we do not need lots of people manning it. The equipment is needed since we need a very specialized manufacturing process. However, maybe one or two technicians will suffice since there is not much to produce. We only need small batches until we get to commercial production. That will not happen until the NDA is approved. Until then we need small quantities for trials.
There are two aspects to this:
(1) FDA approval process is slow. Once you make an application it takes them months to reply. If you goofed up on your application, that will make them reject it and then you will have to send them a modified application and again you have to wait several months. You do not want to do this back and forth process. It is very important to talk to FDA in detail before you submit the application. FDA will hold meetings in person to advise the applicant. Once you have done all your due diligence you want to submit an application that will be accepted in first go. This due diligence takes time, but it is time well spent. You do not want to hurry up just to get rejected.
(2) Still NNVC pace has been super slow. That was my first observation when I started investing in this stock. Their strategy made sense at one time, but it is no longer valid. In the beginning the company had very little money and raising money was very difficult. So they used their money wisely by being super frugal. That was okay at one time, but is no longer fine now. The company already has enough money for now. They no longer need to be super frugal. Now they need to speed up. Speeding up requires people to do the work. Do not forget time is money. If we delay the approval process we will surely lose money that we could have earned. Surely some other competition could come up. But even if competition does not come about, we are still losing money that we could have earned. What they need to do is to hire some more people so that they can speed up the application process. They will also need people to run the trials. However, what is see is business as usual. They have the money but they are not hiring. They not only need consultants, they need internal employees also. Having few employees will delay the FDA approval process. Each time I communicate with Dr. S I make the point to tell him that they need to speed up which is almost equal to saying hire a few people. Maybe more of us need to tell him that. He listens well.
When I look at this company I see a multi-billion dollar corporation. I do not see it as a small company as it is now. A big company does not have four employees. It is time we started to plan being a multi billion dollar corporation.
I think I should send a copy of this posting to Dr. S.
Seeker
If a foreign country has a great unmet need and allows testing I do not think there would be a problem. Consider the case of Aids. Say we find that Aids virus has become resistent to current drugs and lots of people are dying in an African country. Since NNVC has a drug the country allows quick testing of the drugs on this population which is close to death anyhow. Once we test the drugs we find that there is no toxicity and great effectiveness. I do not think the FDA would have a problem as long as the tests were done in a FDA approved manner.
On the other hand we do not want to test in an inhuman manner such that we raise the possibility of large scale human toxicity just because the standards were lax in some country.
Worstluck,
I expect to be in NNVC for at least a few years. At this point I am buying for long term investment. When this stock starts going up we will see major share price swings. Then I might do a little trading. Not now. Right now is the time to accumulate.
Seeker
Still selling continues. So I placed another order to buy 10K at 1.02. After this buy I will have over 200K shares.
They keep selling and I keep buying. I bought 23K more today. Relentless selling.
Seeker
Thanks. I am a newcomer, so did not know the history.
That is good to know. If they offered any investor with minimum 20K share purchase the right to buy, then the company did a very fair job. How did the offering go? Did they offer shares at a certain price (how did that compare to market) and warrants? Are you talking about offering in 2008 or earlier?
How did you get the warrants? Were you able to participate in the previous offering. Did the company invite all accredited investors to participate, or was it an offering to a select few? Some more details will be appreciated.
Looks like the consensus is that this is ok. So let this issue go for now.
I still think this is dilutive. While warrants may have been included in total share count for fully diluted calculation purposes, the actual dilution does not happen until the warrants are exercised. When the warrants were awarded they were not awarded with the understanding that you will certainly make money on these. That is why they were awarded with the understanding that they are valid for three years. Extension of term is a sweetheart deal no matter how we explain it.
I had seen that these warrants were awarded in 2008 for three year term. I did not know that the original shareholders investments are from far earlier time.
Essentially the warrant time extension for no compensation creates classes of shareholders. The higher class is the ones who offered their money directly to the company. The lower class being those who invest in the market. Why not offer a rights issue where all existing shareholders have a right to buy new shares directly from the company so that we all participate in the offering, not just a few shareholders.
Despite my reservations I will rather let this pass uneventfully. We should help the company not cause a problem. However, I will say that if they keep doing this it is likely to bring a lawsuit. The lawyers are after nothing but money and that will embroil the company in litigation and that will be very bad. Their focus must be on drug development not on unproductive things.
Seeker
Leifsmith - You said "I own quite a bit of stock in NNVC and I'm quite happy with Dr. Seymour's approach to the lenders."
Well, tell us how you are happy with this policy? The procedure clearly dilutes our holdings without any benefit to the company. How about creating a few warrants and give them to whoever you like. The idea behind a public company is to be fair. If one does not intend to be fair and instead be partial to a subset of people, one need not form a public company, instead be a private company and do what you want. The idea behind a public company is to work for all shareholders, not a few.
I feel like a complete fool after buying so many shares today. I had looked and this company had not shown partial behavior before today. Why do you think the heavy selling happened at close? Some people saw this filing and sold. Not everybody takes every word of management at face value.
I personally do not like the company giving a benefit to a subset of shareholders. It is unfair.
Seeker