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I know. I was just giving an example of *real* inflation, not the tame stuff that we've had here, even in the 70's.
The Bills will destroy the Pats. All the bogus interference calls that Bledsoe used to get when he played against the Bills (in Foxboro, of course) will be reversed in one evening, proving that there is justice in the Universe.
Bills 36 Pats 23
In the early 90's, in South American cities, people used to keep Dollars at home, then exchange them for their local currency on their way in to work each morning. The money changers would hang out in the medians of the roads heading into business districts.
People probably changed as much money as they would need that day, and no more. No one wanted to hold their own currency overnight...
Are you sure about that? Has it actually been documented?
I don't think so. I think it's more like $^$*%
But it's getting support by da boyz, for the time being. Have patience, will short...
Since the $US bounced off 86 on 9/2, it's up almost 2%, but in the same period, Gold is up almost 1%.
Best of both worlds for us...
I have it on good authority that XWG and RMBS have agreed to buy each other, with stock, at 40% above yesterday's close...
C'mon, Zeev... it's a new IPO and it's Chinese!. Who needs valuation metrics?
I think they have a good product. My main concern is their competition. There are several mega-players who could easily duplicate what they do. Maybe the best thing DSCM has going is the name, which can't be stolen...
$US getting clobbered. Perhaps people are looking for $60B+ for tomorrow's trade deficit number?
Thanks! Nice site...
Trade deficit? ANyone know when the numbers come out? For some reason, I thought it was today...
Melinda Gates doesn't have any track record, except with DSCM. Of course, I'm only referring to her record as an "insider" who has to file Form 4's for each transaction (she is a director at DSCM, and therefore an insider).
As for her DSCM, she bought 2.6m shares at $2.03 three years ago, and she's bought 1.5m shares in the last three months, starting at $2.50.... so she's way ahead.
I'd be more impressed if she had to scrape to come up with that kind of money, but I think she can probably come up with that much just by looking under the sofa cushions...
I did very well shorting CURE earlier this year. That huge acquisition they made last year smacked of real desperation on the part of management... or maybe it was just plain stupidity. Either way, it doesn't speak well for the company's prospects...
Wow... GEPT sure looks like a screaming short, if shares are available.
1. Cramer recommendation - a temporary effect
2. New camera - bfd - as if they're the only one...
You can say that again...
The beginning of the end of the $US as the world's reserve currency. In the long run, it means we won't be able to finance our debts simply by printing money...
Andreas - Thanks for the work. Would you consider limiting that first chart to just 2005? For one thing, Zeev had a terrible 2004. More important, though, the scale (when including 2004), makes 2005 harder to read.
Just a thought...
I'll betcha that story is bogus. Not that I don't think we should be doing more with stem cells in this country - I just think the story is very implausible.
I think you should look at the alternatives, or lack thereof, that these cities have. New London, like many such cities, is going down the tubes because it is losing its tax base. What would it do w/o aggressively trying to pump up that tax base? lay off most of its police, firefighters, animal control people, etc.? Then, when the remainder of its people flee (selling their property for much worse deals than the Keno plaintiffs will get), the tax base will disappear completely, and the city will become a dead zone. The Keno plaintiffs will still have their houses, although they won't be able to leave them safely and, even if they did, they wouldn't have anywhere to go...
Well, if the "it" you're referring to is paranoia, then, no, I haven't gotten it yet. I believe in lots of small conspiracies, but very seldom believe in big ones. They're too hard to pull off.
As for the probable failure of an ETF due to lack of available bullion being "good" for the price of silver because it demonstrates scarcity... I think the author is reaching a little too far in an effort to be optimistic.
But, here, I'd rather be wrong on one or both scores. If there's a grand conspiracy, it'll eventually collapse, and the price of silver will skyrocket. If the ETF fails due to scarcity and everyone suddenly realizes that silver can't be stockpiled like gold, then the price will soar.
I agree... the reason that a silver ETF would be great is the same reason it'll never happen. Too bad...
I have no comment on GOOG's policies or prospects. I'm only saying that those sales were under rule 10b(5)-1. Going back seven months, there have only been four sales (out of about 60) that were not. Make of that what you will...
I would add that I've been intensely studying insider transactions for several years, and can pretty conclusively prove that insider sales do not predict future price drops. In fact, stocks that have been heavily sold have, on average, actually gone up a little. I'm not confident of any explanation for that.
On the other hand, purchases by insiders are slightly predictive, but only sightly.
Thanks, Bearmove. That is a good site. I would point out, though, that it doesn't label transactions as to whether or not they were under rule "10b(5)-1", that is, that they were part of pre-determined plans (nearly always to sell), and were not in response to material information.
Keep in mind that those GOOG sales were all 10b(5)-1 sales, that is, they were part of pre-determined selling plans.
http://www.law.uc.edu/CCL/34ActRls/rule10b5-1.html
Watch him with the sound turned off... more entertaining that way.
CNBC serves the Market very well. Their whole goal is to excite people into buying, then scare them into selling, all in the name of "balance"...
Yes, things do seem to be different. Rather looks like the people selling Euros are buying the S&P 500, and Gold
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=X&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=spy,gld
Newly, you might find this interesting... there's an unfinished construction sitting on a double corner lot on the Manhattan Beach Strand just up from the pier. If it were finished, I think it would be the biggest structure on the entire Strand... maybe 6000 sq ft. I'm not sure when they stopped construction, but it's been at least 2 1/2 years that it's been sitting there, framed and floored but otherwise just sitting open to the weather and salt air.
Here it is:
http://www.californiacoastline.org/cgi-bin/image.cgi?image=200406154&mode=big&lastmode=seque...
I'd sure like to know the story behind it...
I think it depends on the area, and I'm only familiar with one very small area.
Let's put it this way, I doubt that many duplexes would have worse numbers than the one I used to own. With a fixed-rate mortgage (assuming nothing down), I think the costs would be about $96k/year, and rent (assuming both units rented) would be about $47k/year. If you depreciated the whole thing, and had enough other income to deduct the entire loss, you could get the cash loss down to maybe only $10k/year, or somewhat less than 1%. Once you got the rents about 30% higher, you'd be cashflow break-even. And, of course, there's price appreciation...
Essentially, you'd be making money off the tax benefits of the depreciation. (I'm no accountant, so there may be holes in this logic)
Manhattan Beach (Sand Section)... so you probably know that market better than I do.
As for improvements, I made some... maybe enough to make a $50-$75k difference today.
A duplex that I bought in 1986 for $315k may have peaked in value at around $400k in 1990, then dropped back to around $300k by 1994. Right now, it would probably sell for $1400k (too bad I don't own it anymore!).
OK, that's a 367% increase from the 1994 low, but it's still a 250% increase from the 1990 high. Even in inflation-adjusted terms, that's still about a 100% increase.
At the 1990 peak, it would have sold for 16 times its annual rental potential. Today, that ratio is about 29.
IOW, things are way out of line with the prior peak.
I think war is coming soon. I can see it now... masses of heavily armored French cavalry plodding forward through the mud while English longbowmen pick them off...
Guilty. He's been sentenced to take over Squawkbox from Mark Haynes...
What a joke. I sure wish that IIJI was shortable. I've shorted it four times in the past, and made good money each time. These new NASDAQ rules are taking all the fun out of it...
Think of the U.S. as the keystone of the world economy. Just because the keystone starts to crack doesn't mean you can replace it, or the whole arch falls down...
Debt per se does not create dollars or inflation.
Not necessarily, but when the debtor cannot, for the foreseeable future, stop borrowing, then the debt has to be viewed as creating implied dollars, as the only way the debtor can pay off is by printing money.
As to how much we can borrow via treasuries? Who knows? So far we've managed to do it. Bonds trade by supply demand so when people are holding enough treasuries, the bond price will drop due to excess supply. To entice further buying, interest rates (the yield) will rise.
Not if the buyer can print his own currency, and doesn't care about return.
We are so far in terra incognita that no one knows when the game ends or how. So pick your own tsunami.
I live 7000 feet up in the Rockies. If I pick a tsunani, it'll be someone else's, not mine <g>
Yes, but we seem to have gotten into a situation where those dollars end up in either the stock market, the housing market, or the accounts of the Chinese and Japanese central banks, where they just sit, without coming back into circulation here and causing inflation.
So, what's going to make this no longer feasible? The Fed is perfectly happy with inflated stock and real estate prices, and the Asians show no sign of wanting to cash in (they know their dollar assets are depreciating, but they just write that off as a cost of doing business with us).
If the Fed is monetizing our debt by buying up long bonds (in the meantime keeping long rates low and prolonging the real estate party)... what's to stop it?
(serious question - I'd really like to know)
Gloriosky, Sandy! That'd be Little Orphan Annie...