TSLA recovery for today looks to have topped out, don't you think?

I don't think a sharp selldown from 161.70, but maybe 158? Any thoughts?

if it goes below 155 again and closes the day at or below that, I doubt we can get to my target of 167 before another downturn.

The amount of the drop, typical recovery, no real change in the story, but overvalued stock. Those are the factors.

To late today to buy calls in TSLA. buying 160 calls at 1.60 was my play, I would sell them before the close.

Likely a move down in the AM Wed, before another move up close to the point where it would be a safer short.

But you were being sarcastic no?

I think in the next few days TSLA can hit 166.50 or so.

saying if tSLA got close to 158-160 I would put it again.

I think tsla it likely to rally back to about 158 from now.

That news was out 4 min after the open. It's hard to say how soon it got factored in, but I guess it took 30 min at least.

If you check out a 20 year monthly chart of SPY, you will see it stayed lofty and overbought according RSI and other momentum indicators from mid 1996-1999.

The QQQ hasn't been around long enough to show the 1996 - 1999 period.

So this condition can and has gone on for years while the markets went up.

I don't see how you can use this.

Roy

One example was the one I used.

Now NFLX did plummet but that was almost entirely because Icahn decided to sell a large position. He wanted to get below the threshold of 13Bfiles so now he can sell without filing.

No doubt many were selling AMZN, but not one concentrated seller with an agenda to sell a set amount of shares. Ichan had to sell enough to get below the filing threashold regardless of the price.

The sellers in AMZN are willing to sell down to a certain price, then hold off on selling till another day.

A big position like Ichan had he can't let the market know he is selling a little at a time, the price will decline quickly. Those hedge funds that have to file sell all at once.

AMZN looked more stable at the high price it was at, maybe came off a couple of $ premarket, and as often happens there was profit taking in the first hour, but the stock quickly rebounded.

So I doubted AMZN would close at below 360. Maybe some put buyers thought about NFLX so they were willing to buy 360 above 3.00.

I don't have trouble selling small cap stocks that spike way beyond the value I think they are worth, and once and a while wonder why anyone is buying at those levels.

I suppose I don't yet have a good feeling with what is fair value on an option while it is trading. And since I normally think in terms of 3-18 months on investments, it has been harder to think in terms of hours.

These were the things that was going through my head. Likely I think too much at times, and at other times act impulsively from emotion.

What went through your head when you bot the puts at ~1.40 something. Good trade to buy and sell at a double, but ...

IMO this is a distribution phase of the market.

Selling big winners slowly every week.

One reason the weekly options are difficult for me is that I have a notion of what a stock might close at that is often correct.


So it is hard to buy say a 360 put on AMZN for any price when it looked to me like it will close above 360.


I looked at those AMZN 360 put when they were 1.50, but did't want to buy when the stock was 365 since it looked like the stock wouldn't close down below 360.

So do many have the problem of thinking this option is likely to expire worthless even though during the day it might triple then go to zero?

Now cheap options in the first ten mins are often a great deal when you can find them.

Basically options often look overvalued to me.

Anyone feel like that?

For safety, maybe the low on IWM of 110.57 is it for today.

I think all the high PE stocks are going to sell off today into the end of the day.

IMO the market isn't really going to be doomed, but a bear marked always comes. Calls are a little more likely to work, but puts work just as well for big gains.

What helps me more is looking at the daily chart for 2 months.

And not looking at valuations. Many stocks shouldn't be as high as they are, but that often happens in the market.

I could see TSLA was likely to rally the last couple of days, though it is IMO in a downtrend and not going to exceed the old high.

I also use those, but often the less frequently mentioned stocks are better trading, less competition. You get much bigger gains.

You do have to have option liquidity, some of the lesser traded stocks have no option liquidity and big spreads. But not all.

Also getting to get ahead of the market, anticapting what will happen but entering a trade too soon. then selling too early because I didn't enter at a good price.

Several problems are looking at too many stocks, getting easily distracted, then not trusting my instincts / charts, waiting too long to get into trade then it runs away, second guessing myself and selling at a loss minutes before it moves my way.

Paper trading may work to help me.

Not sure about what to do about my trading, the main problem is I lack any confidence. Like I was tempted to buy the TSLA puts thinking it was ready to tank again.

I will have to think about this. Any advice is welcome, but not sure how t get over it.

asia is tanking, but I sold the IWM puts at a small loss, in at 0.22 and 0.25, sold at 0.21.

But they were a distraction I didn't need, I can't concentrate on other trades if I have an open position.

Also for some reason it's a negative for me if I post about trades. I think my need to prove I am right overrules my common sense in trading.

I also think earnings are pretty good.

Though when a company missed, like CREE, it drops very big.

I should have sold the puts, 33% gain 4 min after I bought, now about even.

well, I bought the IWM 111 puts for overnight at 0.23 and 0.25.

Just too cheap I think for a small pullback.

what about a IWM 111 put at about 0.27, any thoughs? If we get some of these high flyers to sell off again it would pay off.

Elon Musk: Tesla Stock Price More Than We Deserve at Bloomberg(Thu 1:20PM EDT)

I guess it helps the down move if a big seller step in and sells a few million shares. AKA NFLX.

Like Apple has been so good in the past 3 years since Jobs died.

But the stock was short term oversold with a lot of shorts. Short term meaning on a daily chart, long term monthly it is vastly overbot.

sorry, IMO it could close at a little below 170, or stay up there past 171.

I thought calls this AM was the best choice, now I don't know really because it's betwixt over short covering and another sell off.

What is good question, what will amzn do now that they are going to report earnings?

My take is there won't be a big selloff, maybe some gains or maybe at the EOD Friday just hold around current prices.

But just a guess.

well now it does look like it will fall into the close, no way to tell how much. But a slow move back down right now.

I would be interested in what Roy thinks about TSLA at 170.90.

I don't like buying puts on a stock in this situation at this time of the day on the day before expiry.

Because it's so tempting, and someone is willing to sell those puts at 2.12. The TA IMO is ambiguous. It could sell back off before the close, or it could move back up to the upper 170s, close to 180.

I think the stock has topped out, but the story is intact and even if it is going down it won't go easy.

It seems to me that they all do with the exception of apple, which often moves counter to the IWM.

I don't think the IWM can move up with stocks like AMZN, TSLA, BIDU moving down. One maybe, but not as a group which should include NFLX, PCLN, etc.

wrong about tsla, it continues on the now established downtrend.

I am thinking AMZN tomorrow close will have good enough revenue to boost the market, then maybe more downside.

IWM is recovering, this seems to also drive many stocks like TSLA NFLX.

I think for today without news the downside is done.

I thought the same, the 50 day may provide support. Typically the stock will go below it, then rebound.

Well, when NFLX went below the closing price and went slightly negative, I was tempted to buy calls.

So I can see how someone might buy calls.

And it did rise 8 points from that price, meaning +8.

I didn't buy calls because they were too expensive, and the stock dropped too fast again for me to react.

Also this AM I was having internet problems off and on.

There will be a time very soon to buy some calls in NFLX. Not get as huge a gain as the puts, but it will be good.

Well, when NFLX went below the closing price and went slightly negative, I was tempted to buy calls.

So I can see how someone might buy calls.

And it did rise 8 points from that price, meaning +8.

I didn't buy calls because they were too expensive, and the stock dropped too fast again for me to react.

Also this AM I was having internet problems off and on.

There will be a time very soon to buy some calls in NFLX. Not get as huge a gain as the puts, but it will be good.

Thanks it looks like Apple can still move up quite a bit.

He didn't really say NFLX was overvalued, but that investors were too Euphoric and it was like the last time investors got that way.

I am pretty sure NFLX caused the rest of the selloff, along with being overbought.

Maybe the CEO is honest, I know hard to believe.

I can't tell if we sell off to negative in the indexes for the day or stay positive.