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John..assume you meant Israel imports most of it's oil from Russia..hadn't thought about that. Yeah..dubya has the brassiest gonads since Teddy R., so he could do that.
Edit thought: The US is going to be blamed by the Arabs whether we do it or not. We're Israel's sponsor, attack will probably come from Iraq..etc. Heck, we might as well do it, or help the Israelis.....I don't know how Israel can possibly stand by and let Iran get the bomb. Unthinkable..in the words of Tevya.
Ult osc showing pos divergence on the NDX. It's been a good signal when it occurs..and doesn't happen all that often. Positioning long for Mondays open could be a play...a bit risky with Israel only waiting for everything to line up in order to bomb Iran.........I don't think they will choose our national holiday to do that though. Probably after the elections.
lol...I just assumed that was one of the unwritten rules, since so many of us guess what's going to happen. I am frank when I say that mine is just a guess. Regards.
The liberal part of the national news has orgasms over Obama...forget anything fair and balanced, or any investigative reporting by CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC..won't happen.
yo, bro..
smarty..thanks..sort of what I remember too. "If" we get a knee-jerk rally next week (seems possible), and that is followed by a big capitulation down in late July or early August.......I could then see a sustained upward move into the election.
Of course, if it looks like Obama will win, the conservatives (they are the greedy capitalists) may sell everything and move to China. Can you imagine what some greedy American entrepeneurs could do in China?
Just kidding you on Obama, of course. I am getting ready....I now need to learn the words to the Black National Anthem as sung at a government meeting yesterday in Denver...am going to refer to the Presidents home as the Black House..going to listen to rap, and learn some ghetto slang..getting ready..
ollie..I believe your thinking is right on..I have certainly made more money after a turn, than trying to anticipate one..maybe I'm just not as smart as some.
Since we're all allowed at least one guess per day, my guess is that this is a sucker rally..and that the market turns down into the early end of day. Regards.
Small/Mid caps of the RUT and MID weaker than NDX. That's supposed to be positive for the mkt.
Speaking of seasonality..election years are supposed to be stronger, but does anyone have a history of the summer action leading up to the election? Just wondering if we get the VIX>40 shakeout, if a sustained rally into the election might follow.
Assuming Chenard is right..there is a bigger down yet to come. Any interim rally may be short in duration, but could be violent if short covering is triggered. Interesting stuff to ponder.
Just a reminder this is a half trading day..if you want to change positions at the close. I think it ends at 1:00 ET.
Thanks for reminding me of that...VIX>40 will be a real big capitulation. Remember that warning from Europe that Ollie posted a few days ago?..obviously, nobody in America is going to paint such a bad picture..I tend to take that warning seriously.
Good for you be...I would guess you are one of the more successful traders on the board. This far, it has been an exceptionally good year for me because of the strong trends both up and down. Good luck and hopes for continued success for you.
Wow..taking care of some honey-do's at the close and amazed to see the big drop at the end. I wonder if most everyone who wanted to sell has now sold?
lol..yep..the real truth is in the account balance. I have probably beat this horse enough. I mentioned at the beginning that there were few who could or would follow trend trading..mostly because it is unexciting.
I was shown again today, that I am not good at predicting trend changes...I thought (as did many here) that today would be an up day..and in fact, took a more risky partial order position at a lower price, anticipating a trend change. Wrong again..fortunately, my price was not met, and I remained in the short 2X etf.
There are lots of ways to make a buck in the market..and most of you have found the ways that work best for you. Regards.
Gleno, I ignore any period less than a day. Determining the trend change is the easiest part. It is a 2 box reversal, which means that the down trend price has retraced the last red box, and gone upward to form a new white box. I don't look at it as "giving back" anything..since if I hadn't been following the trend, I wouldn't have anything to give back.
I use a box size setting that make a reversal on about a 4% price move. Less than that will increase whipswaws..but it is up to everyone to decide for themselves.
Beautiful trend that has been consistent for almost a month now..starting on June 6. The long trends are where the profits really rack up..and the whipsaws are to be endured, or minimized if you can.
Gleno may be like the golfer I saw this morning who, as he walked by his ball in the short rough off the green, gave the ball a kick towards the green, while the rest of the foursome were parking the carts, and getting their putters out. Remember Gleno is a 3A..so he hates to lose.
For any interested in trend trading..today is a good example of why you don't want to set the box size too small to catch a reversal. If the box size were small today, the sell of the inverse etf would have occurred, and also the buy of the long etf. Then, as the market headed down you would be lamenting the system, rather than having stayed in the short issue, and be counting your money. Regards.
Gleno..thanks for passing along what information you can. Somehow, charts make more of an impression than words. I see this was a chart that could be shared..if you find similar ones, please keep us informed..or your commentary..I promise to pay attention.
Gleno..that link on institutional selling would pay for the subscription alone, it would seem. Do you use that information in your trading decisions? Regards.
John..exactly. After the close yesterday I put in a full order to buy MVV at 73.50. Since I believe there could well be a reversal to the trend starting tomorrow... I am using a variation of seeing a Renko trend change. After the close today I did the following:
1. I reduced the # of shares to be bought at 73.50 by 1/2.
2. I placed a new order for the "missing" 1/2 shares to be bought at the lower price of 71.25. I reached this value by changing the MVV points from 1.5 to .75. This brought the bottom of the last red brick to a price of 69.75...adding a 2 brick reversal would add 1.50 which brings the reversal price to 71.25.
The concept is that I take a bit more risk of a whipsaw on 1/2 of the shares, but get an earlier entry on 1/2 of the shares in case it is a real reversal, and then the other 1/2 shares are added at what should be a confirmation of a reversal. Regards.
Good luck to all on their long positions for tomorrow. I would agree that it does look upish.
Primary trend is still down for now..but I placed an order for a partial position long (and closing the short) at lower prices that might trigger tomorrow, just in case there is a valid trend reversal. Regards.
Gleno..you rascal..lol. "so if that happens, pick your long vehicle".
The trend is still down until it isn't my friend. You are a risk-taker of the first order.. good luck.. you "could" catch the trend change on the button... Regards.
Hi John..I use daily..I don't like to be tied to the computer when there are better things to do during the day. I adjust my buy and sell prices for the long and short vehicle after hours for the next day..and then just leave those GTC orders in and let the market movement put me in the right trend.
Low stress trading..and the only time I mess up is when I start to think and evaluate, and yes,.. guess.. Regards.
Another red Renko box just got filled on the MID. It's not exciting to watch, like the 5 minute candlestick charts are...unless you like to make money.
Hey..someone always benefits from someone else's pain. I see that overnight millionaires are being made in North Dakota as oil/gas wells come in...like the old days in Texas and Oklahoma.
Selling into the close in the direction of the primary trend.
Going against the trend is risky.
I will stay short for now, and wait for a reversal signal. I expect a bounce early tomorrow..but I am going to stay disciplined. Regards.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$MID&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44375386330
Looking at the previous support levels to the left, and the flattening of the force indicator..I would say you guys have a good chance to be right about an up day tomorrow. Good luck to all.
lol..excuse me for laughing..this is my last post on personalities. About a week ago I was having a late breakfast..our house is on a golf course, and a mountain stream flows through our lot, then turns and cuts across the 2nd fairway...the 2nd green is within half a stones throw of the house. This guy had driven down the fairway nicely, and laid up short of the stream for his pitch shot to the green. He lined his shot up carefully, wiggled his hips, looked good..then he swung and looked up at the same time..the ball dribbled along the ground and into the water, and before it had made it's second bounce his club was in the air..flung as far as he could throw it. You could literally see the steam rising..lol..........I couldn't help but laugh. sorry, because that could have been you.
lol..natural selection..survival of the fittest..do you suppose Gleno was a handful for his parents and elementary teachers? I can see him running the halls, no matter how many times he was asked to walk, etc.
Gleno..good luck with your trades. I don't know how Renko will work for real short-term trades....maybe too many whipsaws, I don't know.
A 3A personality, eh? Is your wife an A type also..or more laid back? I would think it would be tough if both were A's.
watching paint dry is far more exciting..lol..I know you are a hyper-guy who hates to wait for the light to turn green..etc.
Which reminds me....for years I took the same road to my work in Florida. I soon became aware of a distinctive car that would zoom by me like he had bad cramps and needed to find a bathroom fast. A little later I recognized who was driving..he worked in the same building I did. Shortly thereafter I noticed that he was in the cafeteria sipping a cup of coffee before going to his work...every day he leisurely had coffee before work, after driving like h--- to get there.
That still puzzles me. There was a country song a few years back "I'm in a hurry, and I don't know why".......I wonder why some people are like that? It must be genetic..hyperactive personality.
OT..the West is alive with..wildfires! Over 1400 in California alone. And, the Mississippi is flooding Missouri. More concrete evidence of global warming.
The local prarie dogs seem upset, disconcerted, confused. They wander aimlessly, rather than engage in their usual play. They sense global warming is coming...
Gleno..yeah, a lot of similarity to P&F..the boxes must be filled, and remain filled through the period end, otherwise the filled boxes "disappear" if the price drops below (or above) the box fill. It takes a lot of distractive noise or chatter out of the display....and takes awhile to get used to not seeing those gyrations.
Hi bobjack..I started some 10 years ago in Rydex, using the usual guess indicators..discovered Point&Figure charting..found the signals to be too slow..noticed after awhile that the 2 box price reversals (rather than the 3 box reversal of the standard chart), could be used to identify trend changes. I wish the Renko charts had been available through some service then..it would have made life easier.
I now look at the usual indicators every day..especially breadth indicators. There is value there..but often ambiguity. I am an old digital engineer..I like "0" and "1" conditions. That is a plus for me on the Renko charts..either the day finishes with a box filled, or it does not. There is no ambiguity.
I still have an account at Rydex...they are good..I have been quite satisfied with them, except for the limited trading times they offer. Most of my money is now at IB, and I place orders to buy or sell ahead of time, based on the Renko charts. When a reversal occurs, I am out of one trend, and into the other...rather seamlessly..and hopefully without too many whipsaws. Regards.
lol...do you think Bubba has some anger management issues??
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/06/30/report-bill-clinton-tells-friends-obama-can-kiss-his-butt/
smart..thanks for pointing that out. The rise in buying should occur after the first of the month..when the retirement funds receive their inflow and managers put the money to work. I have always considered the rise of the last days of the previous month as front-running that inflow.
Hmmm..I wonder why that would stop? Owners of the retirement funds designating their money to go to money market rather than stocks? Therefore, fund managers, who always hold some cash, wait until they see what they have before they buy after the new month flow is received? Are people being pinched economically to the point that they are stopping their IRA contributions? Any other ideas?
ollie..I take that quote seriously..assuming it is not a hoax.
Everyone should be positioned short by now..unless they are the fearless type that tries to trade against the trend.
If we have a reasonable box size on Renko..we can ride the trend down..and, if we get a reversal brick upward, take it..if it is a whipsaw,it only costs us a small amount, and then we take the next red brick signal downward and continue the downward trend. We haven't lost much in the whipsaw, and we are right back in the larger trend.
Done right, it is a low stress method of trading. But I see from the other Renko thread that a lot of people still like to stress and guess, by using a lot of confirmation indicators, etc. Hey, if that makes your day..do it by all means. I think it is better with a more simple approach..but I realize many think that more indicators are better. Regards.
bobjack..I think your understanding is right. I think a 2 brick, or about 4% reversal signal works best for me.....if the price has moved almost, but not quite to the point of filling another box in the direction of the trend..I will set my reversal buy or sell a little closer.
The Renko is like anything else...after you look and play with it for awhile it's strengths and weaknesses become more evident. Experiment..count the return..adjust..count again, etc. You will likely find a medium that meets your risk and return tolerances. Regards.
The ATR(14) is the default size. I find that is a bit too big for me. I am using a value of 1.5 on the MVV chart..and a ratio-equal value of 1.1 on the MZZ chart. That is about .67 of the ATR value.
In general, one would want to have a box size large enough so that the period being used (15 min, 60 min, daily, weekly) is not whipsawed often within that time frame. For a daily chart, I think that should be about 3-4% to indicate a reversal. You decide for yourself what you think is right.
Remember that whipsaws are return reducers..but you want the box size small enough to capture a good part of the next trend up or down..and, perhaps suprisingly, making the box size much larger does not necessarily eliminate whipsaws..but it will reduce the return. Choosing the best fit of box size is important.
Off to church..see you later on. Regards.
Gleno, I don't use any indicators..just the boxes themselves. The video that was linked used a number of indicators as confirmation or decision signals. I think the video was good..and I imagine that the fertile minds here will find many adaptations that are beneficial. I don't have an opinion on minute charts..although I do think the Renko concept will work in most any time period..if the box size is chosen properly. Good luck with your choices. Regards.