https://twitter.com/#!/RichChristy
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US Futures Are Tanking, And Hong Kong Is Getting Slammed
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-futures-are-tanking-hong-kong-is-getting-slammed-2011-11
The Simplegreen Room File sharing DropBox
A couple of you have asked me how to login and start using the dropbox that we all share and use to exchange files. I honestly have forgotten to get back to some of you. It has been a really busy month for me so if I have forgot I do apologize. PM me or reply and I will send you the info and username/password
went short on EURUSD around 1352 today. Looking to get out at 134
EURCHF 4hr chart
finally hit the top of the tunnel. been waiting on that for a LONG time. went long.... again.....
yeah camarilla nailed it for sure on both AUDUSD and EURUSD. Missed out on EURJPY ......
You are very welcome. The indicator is a god send. mix in the QT you created and that crazy macd setting or the TDI and its clean.
inside the camarilla indy i do however turn off most of the mid and long range fibs. just adds to many lines to the chart. and I set the GMT Shift setting accordingly. during daylight savings time i had to set it to -4. now that we are out of that i put it back to -5. essentially whatever your broker uses I would use. FXCM tells you the GMT time zone at the bottom of the console so i just go by that.
one other thing I am hearing a lot of is CHF chatter. lots of talk about more intervention.
its really weird that i have been holding this for so long. i want to close it just because its starting to feel like a stock that i am holding hahaha. but hard to keep it below 123 anymore and now with more talks going on? could be interesting.
one thing i have learned with this pair is indicators just dont work all that well right now. i wouldn't dare short it. only buying on the dips.
quick 20pips due to some twitter chatter
im tellin ya bro. its an amazing tool. just throw in some keyword alerts and you hear stuff right away. took a peek and got in 10pips before it started its 40pip march. and now its falling again. but 20pips is a quick 260 bucks.
Keep your eyes on USDJPY! On the move again!!! went long at the top of the tunnel. very conservative stop
Yup. .98 was my original thoughts on where it would go. didnt quite get there but 14pips off is close enough. closed 70% of it and letting the rest run wild.
I think we retest october 7th low. maybe lower
UPDATE on open Trades
closed USDCHF @ 92 all thought i see it going to 93-94, maybe higher.
AUDUSD - close to +300 pips and counting. all though i moved it into profit instead of break even
EURUSD - closed for 67 pips profit. Its up and down. not liking it right now.
GBPUSD - my favorite trade right now. Due to the tunnel on the 1hr i went short @ 15840. still holding onto this one. i think we go much lower.
EURJPY - i ended up jumping in around 104 last night but again with this pair im not sure what to make of it. have it set to break even.
Went long on USD/CHF @ .91650 with a stop below the tunnel on the 1hr chart. really think we see some higer prices on this one.
still holding a short on AUDUSD from 1.01 with it set to break even basically. Still thinking we see this go much lower.
EURUSD I am short but not loking good right now. about -20 pips under. all the reports im reading are saying this is going much lower and most of the techs looks like it would be the case but not 100% sure due to the Euro issue
GBPUSD still shorting this pair. If it goes above 1.605 ill close it out
EURJPY I am still not sure what to do with this pair. i love trading it. BUT. right now. NOT SURE.
just some stuff i have going on right now.....
Good Evening Simplegreen Room. Hope all had an enjoyable weekend and getting ready for another week of Forex trading.
I am still sticking with my below parity call unless we rise above 1.02
Been shorting the heck out of EURUSD and AUDUSD today.
I will have to post my trades because I dont believe some will believe the numbers I claim!! haha. unreal week.
Quad Tunnel and Camarilla are the bomb.
Possible as low as 98
JER I am really sorry we didnt meet up today. I didnt forget. Work had to tied down for hours. wish I could trade all day. hopefully one day soon :)
let me know when you back and we will talk charts and the indicators.
Rich
went short on AUDUSD at 10341!!!
thinkin i should close it now. up 40 pips as i type this
you got it.
and i got your pm. lets see if we can hook up tomorrow. i been dealing with football all day today. watched my birds destroy their season. boooo
Australian Dollar To Trade Heavy On Dovish RBA Minutes
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/australian-dollar-trade-heavy-dovish-234500926.html
Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bearish
AUDUSD: A Double Top in the Works?
Correlations: Euro and Australian Dollar Strong Proxies to Dow Jones
The Australian dollar bounced back from a fresh monthly low of 1.0052, but the high-yielding currency may face additional headwinds over the following week should the central bank talk up speculation for lower interest rates. Indeed, Treasurer Wayne Swan said the Reserve Bank of Australia has ‘room to move’ on monetary policy in light of the slowing recovery, and the central bank may continue to scale back the rate hikes from the previous year as the downturn in global growth dampens the outlook for the isle-nation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes highlights the biggest event risk for the following week, and the statement may reveal an increased willingness to deliver another rate cut in December as the central bank aims to encourage a sustainable recovery. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants see at least a 25bp rate cut next month, while investors expect borrowing costs to fall by nearly 150bp over the next 12-months as the central bank curbs its economic assessment for the region. Speculation for lower interest rates is likely to dampen demands for the high-yielding currency, and we may see the RBA extend its easing cycle into the following year as the uncertainties surrounding the world economy instills a weakened outlook for the region. However, the high-yielding currency push higher over the following week should the rise in market sentiment gather pace, and the reaction to the fundamental developments may be short-lived as risk trends continue to dictate price action in the foreign exchange market.
As the AUD/USD pares the decline from earlier this month, we may see the exchange rate threaten the 200-Day SMA at 1.0417, but the moving average may continue to hold up as resistance as the pair appears to be carving out a head-and-shoulders top. Should the bearish pattern play out over the following week, we may see the aussie-dollar fall back below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2010 low to the 2011 high around 0.9930-50, and the pair may threaten the rebound from 0.9390 as interest rate expectations falter. - DS
JER
Here is what your chart should look like after you setup the files in metatrader
The chart is using the following indicators
Traders Dynamic Index (default settings)
This hybrid indicator is developed to assist traders in their ability to decipher and monitor market conditions related to trend direction, market strength, and market volatility.
Even though comprehensive, the T.D.I. is easy to read and use.
Green line = RSI Price line
Red line = Trade Signal line
Blue lines = Volatility Band
Yellow line = Market Base Line
Trend Direction - Immediate and Overall
Immediate = Green over Red...price action is moving up. Red over Green...price action is moving down.
Overall = Yellow line trends up and down generally between the lines 32 & 68. Watch for Yellow line to bounces off these lines for market reversal. Trade long when price is above the Yellow line, and trade short when price is below.
Market Strength & Volatility - Immediate and Overall
Immediate:
Green Line is Strong = Steep slope up or down.
Green Line is Weak = Moderate to Flat slope.
Overall:
Blue Lines - When expanding, market is strong and trending. When constricting, market is weak and in a range. When the Blue lines are extremely tight in a narrow range, expect an economic announcement or other market condition to spike the market.
Entry conditions
Scalping:
Long = Green over Red, Short = Red over Green
Active:
Long = Green over Red & Yellow lines
Short = Red over Green & Yellow lines
Moderate:
Long = Green over Red, Yellow, & 50 lines
Short = Red over Green, Green below Yellow & 50 line
Exit conditions*
Long = Green crosses below Red
Short = Green crosses above Red
* If Green crosses either Blue lines, consider exiting when the Green line crosses back over the Blue line.
IMPORTANT: The default settings are well tested and proven. But, you can change the settings to fit your trading style.
==================================================================
Camarilla (default settings with GMT shift set to -4 for my time zone)
==================================================================
Quad Tunnel Moving Averages (which consist of the following EMA's)
EMA(121)..yellow
EMA(144)..blue
EMA(169)..red
EMA(196)..purple
EMA(400)..white
How the QT works is this: Anytime the 196 is on top its a bearish sign...if on bottom its supporting there so its bullish...corrections take action to tunnel like a magnet.A Tunnel Twist is when lines converge and 196 moves from bottom to top or top to bottom.The QT is effective on all TFs including one minute but is VERY powerful on longer TFs as is tha case with any good tech tool.
Of course I can not take any credit for the Quad Tunnel and its settings. It is the genius work and creation of Simplegreen himself from the Simple's Green Room (http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=5392)
If you have any questions please let me know.
RC
I thought you guys may find this interesting. Here is the chart I have been using the past couple weeks. Now with the Quad tunnel that Simple and Pennies so kindly showed and explained to me, I feel I have an amazing way to pin-point entry's and exits. Just wnated to share what it is I have been using and how I have been able to gain close to 1000 pips this past 8 days. Really amazing stuff. Minus the Aussie madness I always get myself into
GBPUSD Chart
http://chart.ly/us93f39
oh I am long on $USDCAD as well. Long @ 1.0110 with my limit empty :)
FOREX-Euro jumps vs dollar, Italian debt sale awaited
Fri Nov 11, 2011 2:27pm EST
* Italian debt auction, yields to determine euro's fate
* Busy U.S. data calendar, retail sales closely watched
* Japanese intervention risk rises as yen rallies
By Wanfeng Zhou
NEW YORK, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The euro rose the most against
the dollar in two weeks on Friday and may extend gains next
week should an auction of Italian bonds go smoothly, easing
fears of the country's ability to repay its debt.
Italy is slated to auction 3 billion euros of five-year
government bonds on Monday. It will be closely watched by
investors after Rome managed to sell 5 billion euros of 1-year
debt this week that helped Italian yields stabilize below the
critical 7 percent.
Trading could continue to be volatile and headline-driven,
and the outlook for the euro remains bleak as the euro zone has
yet to find a solution to prevent the debt crisis from
engulfing its larger economies such as Italy and Spain.
"It's going to depend a lot on how the Italian auction
goes," said Boris Schlossberg, director of FX research at GFT
in Jersey City. "If (yields) stabilize at the 7-percent rate,
or ease back down to 6-percent, which will be even better,
definitely the euro stabilizes.
"Structurally, there's still a tremendous amount of
pressure on the euro," he said. The rates "are still
extraordinarily high. It's the punitive cost of refinancing
next year that's really going to weigh on all those European
economies."
The euro last traded up 1.1 percent at $1.3756 ,
after hitting a session peak of $1.3795 on Reuters data and
well off a one-month low of $1.3481 set on Thursday.
Italy's Senate approved a new budget law Friday, clearing
the way for approval of the package in the lower house on
Saturday and the formation of an emergency government to
replace the one led by Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.
The dollar slid as low as 77.051 yen on trading platform
EBS, the lowest since Japan's massive yen-selling intervention
on Oct. 31. It was last down 0.5 percent at 77.226 .
Analysts said the latest sell-off puts intervention risk
back on the radar screen, making short dollar/yen positions
particularly risky.
GO LONG EURO/DOLLAR
On the week, the euro slipped 0.5 percent against the
dollar, on pace for its second straight week of losses. The
dollar declined 1.2 percent versus the yen, the biggest weekly
drop since mid-August.Goldman Sachs recommend investors go long the euro against
the dollar, forecasting a bounce towards $1.40 as near-term
policy uncertainty declines.
Former European Commissioner Mario Monti is widely expected
to take over as head of a broad-based national unity government
in Italy, a move many investors would welcome.
Adding to positive sentiment, Greece's newly appointed
Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said the new national unity
government will do its utmost to deal with the crisis-stricken
country's problems.
"FX markets had started to price extremely negative
scenarios again in recent days as visible in risk reversals for
example," the firm wrote to clients. "These two developments
(in Greece and Italy) suggest that eurozone fiscal tensions
could continue to decline, at least for a period of time."
One-month risk reversals in euro/dollar
traded around 4.1 in favor of euro puts, suggesting investors
are still betting on further losses in the single currency. But
the level of bearishness fell from Thursday when risk reversals
hit 4.575 in favor of euro puts.
FOREX-Euro jumps vs dollar, Italian debt sale awaited
Fri Nov 11, 2011 2:27pm EST
* Italian debt auction, yields to determine euro's fate
* Busy U.S. data calendar, retail sales closely watched
* Japanese intervention risk rises as yen rallies
By Wanfeng Zhou
NEW YORK, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The euro rose the most against
the dollar in two weeks on Friday and may extend gains next
week should an auction of Italian bonds go smoothly, easing
fears of the country's ability to repay its debt.
Italy is slated to auction 3 billion euros of five-year
government bonds on Monday. It will be closely watched by
investors after Rome managed to sell 5 billion euros of 1-year
debt this week that helped Italian yields stabilize below the
critical 7 percent.
Trading could continue to be volatile and headline-driven,
and the outlook for the euro remains bleak as the euro zone has
yet to find a solution to prevent the debt crisis from
engulfing its larger economies such as Italy and Spain.
"It's going to depend a lot on how the Italian auction
goes," said Boris Schlossberg, director of FX research at GFT
in Jersey City. "If (yields) stabilize at the 7-percent rate,
or ease back down to 6-percent, which will be even better,
definitely the euro stabilizes.
"Structurally, there's still a tremendous amount of
pressure on the euro," he said. The rates "are still
extraordinarily high. It's the punitive cost of refinancing
next year that's really going to weigh on all those European
economies."
The euro last traded up 1.1 percent at $1.3756 ,
after hitting a session peak of $1.3795 on Reuters data and
well off a one-month low of $1.3481 set on Thursday.
Italy's Senate approved a new budget law Friday, clearing
the way for approval of the package in the lower house on
Saturday and the formation of an emergency government to
replace the one led by Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.
The dollar slid as low as 77.051 yen on trading platform
EBS, the lowest since Japan's massive yen-selling intervention
on Oct. 31. It was last down 0.5 percent at 77.226 .
Analysts said the latest sell-off puts intervention risk
back on the radar screen, making short dollar/yen positions
particularly risky.
GO LONG EURO/DOLLAR
On the week, the euro slipped 0.5 percent against the
dollar, on pace for its second straight week of losses. The
dollar declined 1.2 percent versus the yen, the biggest weekly
drop since mid-August.Goldman Sachs recommend investors go long the euro against
the dollar, forecasting a bounce towards $1.40 as near-term
policy uncertainty declines.
Former European Commissioner Mario Monti is widely expected
to take over as head of a broad-based national unity government
in Italy, a move many investors would welcome.
Adding to positive sentiment, Greece's newly appointed
Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said the new national unity
government will do its utmost to deal with the crisis-stricken
country's problems.
"FX markets had started to price extremely negative
scenarios again in recent days as visible in risk reversals for
example," the firm wrote to clients. "These two developments
(in Greece and Italy) suggest that eurozone fiscal tensions
could continue to decline, at least for a period of time."
One-month risk reversals in euro/dollar
traded around 4.1 in favor of euro puts, suggesting investors
are still betting on further losses in the single currency. But
the level of bearishness fell from Thursday when risk reversals
hit 4.575 in favor of euro puts.
Sell-off picking up? Commentary from Fed officials and IMF's Zhu not helping investor confidence.
I do find trading EURGBP to be a fun pair if you can figure it out. sometimes its a little tough to trade but it moves around.
Interesting read from FX Street: http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=b140c1e0-adb2-447b-a913-ecbf25f45a95
You HAVE GOTTA LOVE THIS GUY.... GOOD LORD
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-ecb-must-intervene-save-192037434.html
If you havent already notices I am kind of a big space nerd, in some respects. Check out this video that NASA released of the asteroid that flew by us. cool stuff
I am sure you fella's have seen this but nonetheless wanted to post it here just in case. Some interesting charts to look at!
http://peterlbrandt.com/comparison-of-djia-200708-vs-present/
Forex Flash: EUR/USD, a complete collapse is likely to be prevented by speculations of QE3 - Commerzbank
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Despite Friday's rebound the Euro depreciated heavily this week in view of rising Italian yields that soared above 7%. Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke commented, "In our view the euro will continue to react sensitively to a deterioration of the debt crisis. A new Italian government is unlikely to change this, as it will remain unclear how the reform efforts are going to progress".
"However, we do not expect to see a proper collapse of the euro against the US dollar as there are increasing signs that the US central bank might initiate another round of quantitative easing (QE3) in view of the low inflation and high unemployment rate", said Praefcke. "As a result markets will pay particular attention to the US price data next week".
"Weak inflation data might fuel speculation about QE3 thus putting pressure on the US dollar, which would at least grant the euro a breather. However, even then the debt crisis will remain the main issue so that the risks in EUR-USD should continue to point to the downside", Commerzbank analyst added.
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=3abc1cc6-03ea-4d74-908e-4fe4c0bae0ba
sometimes the simplest is the most obvious :)
thanks
I have two broker accounts. a FXCM Standard account using Marketscope 2 and Tradestation http://www.tradestation.com/ which is by far the best broker I have ever used. I never thought about that but your right i suppose i can hedge if i really wanted to. good point pennies
Have two questions for the board:
#1: Is ANYONE trading GBPUSD? What the heck is up with that chart. the 1hr is insane. I went short @ 1.6080 but not sure what to make of it
#2: NSDUSD. Normally I like to use this pair as my ATM machine but I swear its got something against me? HAHA. ITS NOT DROPPING. the pair has a good looking bearish gartley on it and it hit the H5 target on camarilla which almost always leads to an awesome drop but its just sitting there. Anyone trade this pair?
that looks like a good place to close the short but i am still holding a short from 14050 when RSI3 dipped below the middle so i really can only short the pair due to the horrible rules about hedge trading in the US.
estimator i like to think of twitter as my personal weegee board haha it really has a wealth of knowledge and normally the news hit there before everyone jumps in so i tend to listen what twitter has to say.
basically CHF just said: Danthine hits the wires, EUR/CHF jumps. lots of news about it pushing the pair up to 130-140. its way over valued, in my opinion BUT you cant do anything about it. just go with the flow. i refuse to short that pair basedon the pegged ceiling imposed. every 100 pips I open a lot. been doing so since 120.