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total nonsense... total... later.
and to add.. No the attorneys have absolutely zero say in an accounting matter. They can give advice, but taxes are accounting issues for the most part. I could file a tax lien against the company tomorrow if I worked for them for example and thought they had not paid social security taxes on my behalf.. If I can get an attorney to file the paperwork, it gets filed. Doesn't mean anything.. Companies have hundreds of lawsuits, tax liens from various states etc.. Doesn't mean any of them are accurate or will ever go anywhere. In lawsuits, most companies do not disclose them at all until their legal counsel tells them it is likely they will have to settle or a court decides. Otherwise, they generally take the stance it is not likely to happen and therefore do not even accrue for the event.
I highly suggest, anyone with money in these types of stocks takes accounting or finance classes. This is not a game folks. This is not Las Vegas. IF you don't know anything about accounting, you simply cannot understand how a company should be valued. Invest in mutual funds - that is why they are there..
bottom line here.. Need financial statements now from HSXI. They likely wont do audited ones because it is expensive. Plain and simple. They will get someone to issue another research report in hopes that will propel stock to higher levels and off pinks..
you clearly have not worked for any kind of substantial firm or company.. Companies keep this info, especially something I would even deem immaterial quiet every day. So GE for example - do you think they have liens or lawsuits that you would not know about. I can guarantee they would. If they are in debate or immaterial, they would not need to disclose. If you had any accounting background (which generally you should to invest), you would know that you don't even accrue for things like this until they are more likely than not to occur. So if Healthsonix feels this is either a. Immaterial or b. highly likely it will be reversed or negotiated away for whatever the reason, they would have absolutely no reason to disclose it. In my mind totally immaterial......
Thus the reason I no longer participate in these boards... With exception of posts from Vulcan, Matzel, and a few others, you have to wade through a ton of total nonsense to have any intelligent debates/discussions..
I've held companies that have gone bankrupt. Held companies that have done great. HSXI is nowhere in the same ballpark as the bad ones.. I have ordered at least a dozen times right up to today from HealthSonix - sending ZingiberRx to people I know. Every order is filled timely, shipping prices have gone down - meaning reaching higher volumes.. Every question I have posed to company answered same day and are completely accurate. Oh yeah Bigfatbig.. I did my own investigation per your recommendation. Here is the thing - if company does have a 500k tax lien you have to be a director of the company to know that. So be careful. You are either spreading false information or you are spreading currently insider information if you work for the company or know someone who does. I literally picked up the phone and called the tax authorities. Spoke to several nice people in the province. Said absolutely no way to know that info without being a legal director of Healthsonix. It is not public record information. You can debate that all you want - I'm sure you will. Also, not to mention 500k lien would be IMMATERIAL.. Since you don't seem financially inclined, you would probably not know the meaning.. adios.
Tato.. It's just the opposite. Many of us try to back up our thoughts with factual info or at least strategic thinking.
News flash for you... Investing is extremely boring. You seem like you might be better off in Las Vegas. Talk to a fund manager... they go over the same data day, after day, after day, after day, after day.......... What makes it slightly exciting is the ability to notice very small changes in the numbers or markets that help you make the right decisions.
Tato - you are right. There is redundancy but as Vulcan pointed out, sometimes it's needed. When your reviewing your investments, you need to keep going over the fundamentals.
I typically invest long term only so I just try to review investments about once per quarter. However, at this point with HSXI I'm looking for other angles that other people here might have that I may not be seeing. I try to get meaningful discussions going based on fundamental financial analysis. Too many investors don't challenge themselves to run the numbers, and then re-run them constantly to see if you are coming out with what you initially had.
Thanks - appreciate the interest as I'm interested too in what others think.
Here's some of my thoughts in no particular order:
1. I'm frustrated with the fact the letter has not yet arrived.
2. If the letter does not have at least high level financial info, my frustration will grow. If they have the AMEX filing ready to go, then they have financial info they could share so I would not understand the reasoning for not sharing it. As we have seen with comparables, in the medical products industry, even sharing horrible financials allows the shares to trade higher.
3. I continue to use and be amazed by their products. I recently ordered more ZingiberRx - still can't believe how well it works - and I'm saying that as a consumer, not as an investor.
4. From the few conversations I have had with people at the company (mostly last year) I think the management is an experienced, focused team. I think they are very much concentrating on the long term strategy and not willing to sacrifice with short term activities. But it's hard for all of us including myself to remember this because we want to hear constant updates.
5. Clearly the company is making some decent money because they have gone for a long time without the need to do serious dilution at this low stock price. This HAS TO MEAN they are not burning through cash. There is no other way to interpret the lack of dilution. So this further supports my beliefs that they have decent financials and have some significant sales - otherwise they would have run out of money a long time ago. This is really the most important point... But stock price will not trade higher until market gets confirmation of this fact.
Of course I'm saying this without seeing actual dilution numbers right.. But if they are quietly diluting to either management or other investors, it means they have financials to back it up and get people to invest further. Otherwise they'd be tapping general market with their equity.
6. I personally believe they are forging further agreements with pharm companies. I think they are just continuing to be very quiet about it (again - long term view vs. short term view). I could be totally wrong here, but I think this is more supportive of the fact they haven't needed to raise more cash via equity. I think they are making plenty of money on therapy alone. I believe Abbott agreement is still ongoing.
So bottom line is, I think the fundamentals are all still very supportive of an incredible investment. We just have to keep patient for now and watch what happens this year. There are a ton of dynamics in play for this year namely the US economy. But medical co's historically do very well in slower economic times because people focus on spending money on what counts, and not so much on luxury. I will be baffled if they don't release financials either in the letter or within the next month. I think long term view here is optimal.
Would like to hear other thoughts on any of these points as well.
If this isn't another proof of the potential - more comparables in the medical industry. Did you notice - they all have financials availalbe.. Protalex even has no revenue and they trade above a buck with a much higher market cap than HSXI who we know has solid revenue...(just don't know how much).. Did you notice hte revenue of the others... Not too far of a stretch for HSXI.
From 1999 - 2001 Sono traded between 4 and 30 dollars per share. This is the only company that HSXI has ever named as a comparable. the revenues for these years are probably similar to what HSXI is starting out as - in 1999 - I would equate that to 2007 for HSXI. Probably around 10m in revenue (again we are guessing). But they will be close to making money is my guess - maybe I'm wrong here, but they have said they would be cash flow positive in near future. We can all admit, these were not great years from a stock market perspective - i.e. we are not in great markets right now. Difference between HSXI and SONO. SONO was releasing financials....
For the Years Ended December 31,
-----------------------------------------------
2001 2000 1999 1998 1997
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------
(in thousands, except per share data)
Statement of Operations Data
Sales revenues............................................ $ 45,695 $ 32,037 $ 10,185 $ -- $ --
Cost of sales revenue..................................... 21,861 18,649 6,498 -- --
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------
Gross margin on sales revenue............................. 23,834 13,388 3,687 -- --
Grant revenue............................................. -- -- 125 973 2,948
Operating expenses:
Research and development................................. 12,715 11,835 14,533 9,474 7,064
Sales and marketing...................................... 22,312 17,371 9,767 3,120 1,268
General and administrative............................... 5,198 4,647 2,637 1,904 610
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------
Total operating expenses.................................. 40,225 33,853 26,937 14,498 8,942
Other income (loss):
Interest income.......................................... 1,123 2,478 1,600 541 --
Interest expense......................................... (175) (155) (117) (41) --
Equity in (losses) earnings of affiliates................ (675) (830) 30 -- --
Other loss............................................... (291) -- -- -- --
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------
Total other income (loss)................................. (18) 1,493 1,513 500 --
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------
Net loss.................................................. $(16,409) $(18,972) $(21,612) $(13,025) $(5,994)
======== ======== ======== ======== =======
Basic and diluted net loss per share (1).................. $ (1.59) $ (2.01) $ (3.08) $ (2.72) $ (1.28)
Weighted average common and potential common shares
used in computing basic and diluted net loss per share (1) 10,300 9,418 7,025 4,796 4,684
and so net point about SGN.. You can release terrible financials and still have more value to your stock. Vulcan noted this a while back, and I was willing to wait until early this year when they closed out 2007. But now that they have, they need to deliver. And they still may - they still have plenty of time, but don't expect to see any meaningful moves in the stock until that time.
Exactly right. But I don't think they will ever hit 2 bucks per share without the financials. If you look at any comparables (if you can go back far enough on some of them), they all had financials prior to getting to that level to go to AMEX. Also, I think they have plenty of revenue to report for 2007 - otherwise they would have long since run out of money. At this point, there is no reason for them not to at least tell us what Revenue and Gross profit were at a very high level. Otherwise, they can say all they want about this year, but we will only be able to continue guessing about what that translates into as far as financials. I know several people who would never buy a stock without financials. I am typically one of them, but since I started out using their products, can make some broad assumptions based on initial analyst reports, I'm fine with it. But normally, it would be crazy.
Thanks for continuing to link and provide info.
The only action that will move stock price at this point is financial info. If there is no financial info in the letter on Friday or separately filed, we can expect to be in this PPS range until that is provided. Look at SGN (Signalife) as a comparable.. They have less than 200k in revenue and lose money. They are on the AMEX and have traded well above 2$ for much of the last 5 years (they now trade at .60). We know that Healthsonix will come out of the gates with revenue of probably 100 times that amount. But why does SGN trade higher... They have financial info available..
Thanks MnM - I hadn't picked up on that. Clearly they are rolling it out. As per my other post, once you get into a full pharmacy chain, you could be talking a few thousand locations in a matter of weeks.
Shoppers Drug Mart in Canada has over 1,000 stores alone.
I agree - probably held off to announce with advertising campaign as well. Also, the management team seems to more worried about making sure everything is working right and going well before announcing something. This is good in the long run and is a sign of mature, confident management team in my opinion.
I think at this point, stock price won't make huge moves until we can tie some kind of revenue numbers to all the work they are doing. Right now we still have to guess how much ZingiberRx they are selling. My absolutely wild guess is they are probably selling currently something like 2,000 units a month (total guess and probably pretty conservative) which would equate to about 50k in monthly revenue. I'm guessing they are probably test marketing in a few stores - let's assume about 5 stores. You could assume they are selling a few hundred tubes a month at each location not really counting online sales. this kind of stuff could explode into 10,000 units sold each month in no time flat if they get into one entire pharmacy chain (a lot of pharmacies have on the order of 2,000 stores - so you can see just selling a few at each store is huge.
I tried to find out how many tubes of BenGay are sold each month and then back into something at this point in time for Zingiber just starting out, but haven't found enough info. Any suggestions/estimates anyone might have would be great.
IN any event - it points to millions of dollars in revenue this year which when added to the other offerings, hopefully makes you see it's not too hard to get to 20-50million in revenue this year.
As Matzel noted, the charts are really reading what was already there - they are showing what is already happening.
Don't get me wrong - charts are valuable depending on your strategy. For example, if you simply wanted to trade stocks without knowing much about a company, you could follow hundreds of stocks via charts and buy and sell when the charts indicate you should. That is a strategy and it can be very profitable - not to mention for a lot of stocks it keeps you from getting burned. Without charging and investing solely on strategic outlook of the company, it's hard to follow more than a dozen or so.
For the rare stock like HSXI, in my experience, charting often just forces you in and out of a stock that might have been better off holding or waiting to buy or should have bought previously. Sounds like you recognize that with HSXI if you have been holding for a while.
But it is also an indicator of when general market activity for a particular stock is rising/falling - as you noted - we can welcome the charters because they will certainly increase the activity and demand for a particular stock.
Not a big fan of charts other than helping for momentum entry/exit and short term trading. Charts don't lie because they are based on history - kind of hard to be wrong. However, they do not do a good job of telling how high or low a stock will go or for that matter what form they are in - e.g. will it finish that head and shoulders or go into another form. But appreciate the viewpoint because they are an indicator - trending averages. On stocks like HSXI it's difficult though - not a whole lot of history/consistent volumes..
Keep in mind you won't get the volume on stocks like HSXI for a few reasons:
1. Generally stocks in similar industry/place in life cycle don't have huge volumes (look at daily trading vols of comparables I have listed)
2. Huge restricted share base for hsxi and a lot of people hanging on to their shares for moves much higher than this..
Thanks Matzel. That's why I've been investing in HSXI since 2006 and continue to do so. When you look at comparables, you can see the opportunity and given that those comparables at the same stage often did not have fully developed products like HSXI does, you can really understand the near term opportunity as well.
it's like plate tectonics.. plates grinding together waiting to pop.... You can feel the tension in this if you are buying or selling from day to day.
Ok - enough of that hypothetical mumbo jumbo... The reality is, this should easily be a $2-$5 stock at this point... I have always preached comparisons right... and have given many other companies as examples at varying levels of revenue and profit including SGN, REST, IRIX, CLN, ABMD, and BVX.. Here is another one CTE - Cardiotech. They make cardio products (read profile), have revenue of about $21m but lose about .22 per share (21 million shares outstanding and most of that is float - i.e. very little restricted ownership). The stock traded back up to a buck today and has been as high as 6 bucks and is on AMEX.
Ok - so let's reiterate HSXI. We don't know any financials yet, but we can draw some conclusions.. If they launch the darn infomercial they could easily sell a few hundred thousand units (200,000 units represent less than one half of one percent of the 48 million Americans who suffer from Arthritis - in case you are wondering how I can easily expect them to sell a few hundred thousand this year... more like you could see them do at least 500,000 units which is still only 1% of target market - but let's be conservative...). Even if they sold them for $100 each (even though we know they sell them for $180 each) that's $20,000,000 in revenue. And I would believe the margins are quite high... That does not include ZingiberRx, AquaSonix therapy or anything else.
See the comparisons that you have to always do - because that is what management is looking at (otherwise they wouldn't be there) and that is what analysts guiding the company are going to do... look at comparables. It is easy to see why management is confident they will not have any problems getting to AMEX. CTE is already on AMEX - if you look at the last five years they were well above $2 per share for quite a while. CTE is still very much development stage, however, they do sell products obviously. HSXI has said most of development is behind them AND expensed already. They have also said several times they expect to be cash flow positive essentially in first year of full ops (I'm guessing they mean when they launch infomercial)
So it is easy to say that when you add in all the revenue potential this could easily be the next Abiomed in a year or two which has $50m in revenue and trades at $15 bucks today AND THEY STILL LOSE OVER A DOLLAR PER SHARE......
So why are we at 16cents... Because we don't have the financials and until then it's your estimate vs. mine vs. how much we trust that management is on the right track. But they could be total idiots and still sell 200,000 of the enSonix@home units so that is why I invested.. You almost don't have to believe anything management says at this point if they just release the infomercial (but add to that I believe them because they have done what they said they would - just a little more slowly than we all would like) .. Also, I have an enSonix@home unit so I know it works unbelievably well. I use Zingiber all the time so I know it works well...
So you can feel the friggin pressure building when you think about comparisons and potential... Releasing financials today with anywhere from 10m to 20m in revenue would make this minimum $2-5 per share - then they move to AMEX. Then at the end of 2008 after 10 months of an infomercial, more therapy treatments, the ATCA up and running in Florida - if they report 50m in revenue easily a $10-20 per share (again - look at Abiomed folks.. this is not a stretch - it is the market norm - look at Abiomed charts - it has traded in this range for long time)... Look at the comparables - that's how I'm drawing this conclusion.... Not just making it up..
I welcome any comments to the contrary (as long as they are backed up by similar supportable numbers/data)...
I'd still want to see the fact that Abbott agreement is dead from HSXI, not from someone who doesn't have a name in Abbott Investor Relations in the US where they are rolling this out in a small geographical area in Canada.
With regards to Abbott and their interest in the technology - let's get back to the facts stated in the original press release on Abbott which I have copied here again.
HealthSonix, Inc. (Other OTC:HSXI.PK - News) (Frankfurt:H7S.F - News) announced today that the joint marketing program with Abbott Laboratories has commenced in Southern Ontario, Canada. The program is the first of its kind and offers Rheumatologists the option of prescribing "combination therapy" for patients with advanced rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, and ankylosing spondylitis.
"The guidelines published by the American College of Rheumatology [ACR] for rheumatoid arthritis state that 'the ultimate goals in managing RA are to prevent or control joint damage, prevent loss of function, and decrease pain,'" said Dieter D. Doederlein, Vice President Corporate Development of HealthSonix. "To maintain joint function, the guidelines suggest that 'regular participation in dynamic and even aerobic conditioning exercise programs improves joint mobility, muscle strength, aerobic fitness and function, and psychological well being without increasing fatigue or joint symptoms.' That is why the combination therapy now offered by Abbott Laboratories and HealthSonix is a significant new development for both rheumatologists and their patients," said Doederlein.
The reality is, HSXI needs Abbott, and Abbott needs someone like HSXI because the ACR is recommending combination therapy (drug and non-drug). They know that the combination therapies (like so many other medical treatments these days) are best because no-one treatment works better than combinations of treatments. In treating cancer, heart disease, arthritis, etc., combinations of drugs, diet, exercise, etc has a better effect than just drugs alone. That is why Abbott would be willing to pay for the treatments - because compared to what they have invested in their drugs, it is nothing for them to offer Aquasonix and pay for it if it helps them maintain and possibly gain market share.
thanks Matzel - I thought I had read somewhere that Frankopan was involved in funding - and that's exactly where it was. I knew there were a few others as well, but given Ivezic was (or still is) a partner at Frankopan clearly they have a large interest...
I shouldn't use the term "management" so loosely - but the assumption would be that management and other "inside" investors are the ones who hold the restricted shares. At last public count (I believe in one of the interviews CEO did with Christian Financial Radio) he said there were 55M shares outstanding and 15.5M in float (meaning about 40m shares are restricted. That means over 70% of the shares are "restricted". This has probably changed slightly since then because that was many months ago - most likely more restricted shares were issued paying management or medical advisory board in restricted shares instead of cash.
So net is, someone or some group has a huge restricted investment in HSXI - usually a very good thing because it means they will do everything in their power to cash in on the common stock.
My opinion has been the shares are held by management, medical advisory board, and private investors probably represented mostly by Frankopan (total guess on my part). It is hard to find much info out about Frankopan except that Ivezic has worked for them and I'm guessing probably still represents. I am assuming their customers are wealthy clients. Ivezic is put at the helm of HSXI to monitor this substantial investment - again that is my guess. But if you look at some of the info in the past - Frankopan has been major investor in other prior companies that Ivezic has run and his bio says that he has been a partner at Frankopan. I think the two go hand in hand - Frankopan finds investment they like, buys into it heavily, puts Ivezic at the helm, takes the company to the next level making stock price appreciate and allowing investors to cash out of their substantial restricted shares.
So bottom line is - over 70% restricted ownership interest means there is a huge vested interest in making sure everything with HSXI is done right.
Thanks - I was aware of that because they clearly stated it in their last Green Barron released letter. I was just speculating on what might be going on while they continue to be very quiet at the beginning of this year. Also, because another key item that we have not heard about was the announcement of a financial institution that would bring them to higher exchange - that was due in mid December. Clearly financial markets are in turmoil so institutions might have just put them on hold.
I was just purely speculating... For me I have always said near term make or break is execute on GEn 2 and infomercial in Feb/March along with releasing financials - which they have only generally talked about.. never committed to a specific date on financials. I review seriously about once per quarter, but speculate on strategy whenever I feel up to it : )
Thank's Matzel - maybe at the end of the day just as you point out that maybe they are executing on plans and will update us when ready. This is of course in line with their thinking all along and therefore is probably the correct assumption.
But what I find interesting is when I think about what the management stake is. If 10% of the company was held by insiders, I might think that they would just be working, collecting their options and paycheck and looking for the next move to pump and dump shares. But over 70% of the stock is owned by the company management and others. You can't pump and dump that kind of ownership - it will completely tank the stock. So their payout is going to come when the stock price goes up organically (i.e. stays high enough to allow them to sell their shares into a marke that is constantly buying HSXI) either because of their success in executing or selling out.
The other thing I find interesting is the CEO. He has worked for Frankopan for many years and takes on the role of Interim CEO in companies. The prior company he headed was funded by Frankopan. So my take is when they find an investment they are interested in for their very private and probably very wealthy clients, they take a large stake, and then put someone like Ivezic at the helm of the company to ensure their investment is well taken care of. So the point is, if these guys were worried about the current stock price they would be out there every day releasing updates - or at least once per month and be very responsive to questions (even if they are receiving a lot more inquiries) like they have done in the past. We'll see - still too early to tell. Key determinant for me will be infomercial. If that misses without a good excuse (like a buyout) then it will be disappointing.
There's obviously something brewing... Here is a company that easily could have 30M in revenue this year... The enSonix@home alone (forget about Abbott, ZingiberRx, or anything else they may do), once they release the infomercial it will be targeted to the 48m Americans with Arthritis, not to mention the millions of people around the world who will see the infomercials via satellite...But let's just say .25% (yes - one quarter of one percent) of the 48M decide to buy an enSonix at home - that would be about 120,00 sold at a price of let's say $150 each (it will be more than that).. That's $18m in revenue and if you take that down to EPS even on a conservative basis you could easily get to a dollar or two per share.
The management seems to not really care about the current price. They have seemingly stopped responding to some of the inquiries posted here. So there are two things you could be thinking..
Possible Downside: If I'm a pessimist on the stock, I'm thinking the mgmt really screwed something up, lost deal with Abbott, and will not release infomercial for another several months. I can't for the life of me think of a reason why. I'm pretty cynical, but if you are management and you are sitting on a product that could easily generate millions of dollars in revenue and very high profit margins, why would you not be out there with the infomercial, announcing an update every other day. Look at all the companies who do so with less than a million in revenue and much, much less potential..
Possible upside: They could care less about the current stock price and continued questioning from investors if they had received a buy-out opportunity that they are actually considering. That would also likely put everything on hold while they reviewed it. They were supposed to have announced a Wall Street firm to help them move to Amex, and several other things by end of year 2007.. However, if a major pharm was interested in buying them out (which is quite possible), the Pharm would use their own distribution channels already in place to market, distribute, and sell the product and there woujld be no need for move to Amex, Wall Street firm's help etc.. They would not need an infomercial or anything else. I admit - this is pretty far fetched and I place about 5% weight on such a scenario, but CEO has said in the past they have received offers but they turned them down because they were not looking for a quick buck. I think in that interview (with Christian radio) he said they were not looking for the quick pop to $2 per share. So if you play that scenario out - if you look at 3-5 year revenue projections, you could see why they would turn it down. But what if Abbott (who by the way offered to pay for the AquaSonix for customers so was clearly impressed) became further impressed and decided to just try to buy them out.. If they believed a 5 year revenue projection of $300m then that would easily fetch 500M plus in a buyout offer or close to $10 per share (this could also be conservative). This is something that the company would actually have to stop and take time to review.
Total speculation and highly unlikely it is reality - but you have to wonder why a company with a medical product that works (again look at comparables in same industry) would all of the sudden seemingly shut themselves in... If you are management makes absolutely no sense. I think maybe more likely scenario is they are continuing to just roll out on their plan, but ufnortunately doing so at a slow pace...
wrong. He said it was 15.5M. Clearly has stated it in a few interviews.
by the way.. the CEO has stated several times that o/s is about 55m and float is 15.5M. This is way before Abbott news. They have also stated many times they have enough money at this point in time and would not do another issuance until stock price was higher. If you notice, the reports of 51M in O/S and float of 14M are old - most from back in 2006. Therefore, it does not take much to understand that the reason for the increase in shares is likely not going to be in the float because several of the senior managers are probably taking more shares (i.e. non float) instead of higher pay.
Just amazes me the mis-info that get's spread on these boards. Total and utter speculation which is entirely not correct if you listen to what the company has said over and over. Share volume... Total nonsense. Maybe with a stock that has no revenue, but if the company is making money (and since we don't know how much they are making we can't factor in cash burn or accumulation) you will never be able to complete the equation. So you HAVE TO listen to the facts they provide.
What is your support for the issuance of 1m after abbott news?
Sound - care to share how in the world you arrive at 20M in float now? Real financial/math not just pure speculation.
looks like just an artist rendition of the building. They moved into new headquarters I believe about a year ago or so so it is probably accurate, just not an actual picture.
The Website is great! They even give exercises to do etc.. read the In The News tab and look at some of the reviews. I knew it was taking off for runners - I know some marathoners who use the product and I guess it is really taking off for them for recovery and to help them get over aches and pains so they can keep running. Overall pretty robust website...
So like I've always said.. let's analyze this a little more.
1. They released the website when the info release said they would - within 7-10 days.
2. The website looks great and is a strong indicator that they are getting enough attention for the product to dedicate not just a part of their website to it, but an entire website. Websites are fairly inexpensive these days, but the new zingiberrx.com site is I would say pretty good.
3. Clearly the lack of an immediate press release shows they are so confident in probably the private investment and sheer market interest in the product that they don't feel they need to announce every single move they make immediately... i.e. hopefully now some of you should believe me that they are more interested in doing the right thing than hyping everything they do...
with that last point made, they of course need to announce the website at some point to ensure it IS advertised.. But they did this last time with myarthritisstore.com - they released it without announcing it to allow them to test out the traffic etc.. They can actually watch how visitors are travelling through their site and make small adjustments to ensure efficiency etc., before they do big announce..
By the way - right now you can only buy it via their websites unless you live in Canada where they are doing some retail testing in some of the drug stores. That's what the reference in the last info they released was about - that the retail trials are working well.
The website is now up... Go to www.zingiberrx.com
Meant to add when you posted this note was that yet another way to support HSXI is not only to buy their own products or have people you know obtain a sample of ZingiberRx.. But I would suggest going out today and buying a tube/container of ZingiberRx. If you already have some and don't need another one now, give it to your grandmother, your grandfather, neighbor, friend, church.. In place of some of the $ donations I give to churches and the like, I now buy a container of ZingiberRx every month or so and donate it. This has two major benefits. It obviously helps us as investors, but it's also nice to do for people who might be in need of some pain relief and it's really no more out of pocket money for me because I'd be making donations anyway. Or forego that expensive cup of coffee a day and buy one tube a month to donate to someone who needs it. Real revenue generation equals real stock price appreciation.
one more thing.. so your risk is (1) whether they will execute and (2) timing... Timing is the killer of most people that invest in penny stocks. They invest for the short gains and that's fine. But when you find the future Ventana medicals or somewhere less, you miss the powerful moves because you would have already cashed out...
By the way, I'm not a penny stock investor - I avoid it like the plague. I'm here however, because I was first a customer of HSXI and when I experienced how well their products worked I started doing my research. I came to trust that the company was going to follow through on their plans and you look at who is on their medical advisory board, history of management etc.. The medical advisory board is a big factor... If you are a reputable doctor, you don't associate your name with a company unless you are confident their products work. Then look at the research they did - this all just told me I wasn't having a freak experience when I used their at home product - which blew me away. How many products have 80% of the people saying they have major improvements -that is better than a lot of drugs that cost billions to develop.
So my point is the following... Most penny stock investors never hit that big reward, because quite simply time is their enemy. So many of you might be looking for the pop to a buck.. Ok - that's great - you make some money and you move on. Good for you. But my goal (assuming they continue to execute) is to hold this stock for several years so my risk is not what happens today/tomorrow, my risk is what happens over the next year as they try to execute long term.
The management knows they are all in incredible positions. They are sitting on a potentially huge return. Why do you think over 70% of the stock is held by insiders.. Why do you think there has been virtually no turnover... These guys know they will get paid big time if they can execute on their plans. But YOU have to be willing to wait. Forget about whether they will reach $2... focus on their execution of long range plans... But of course that depends on your individual goals and your own time horizon.
Just trying to share some experience and things I learned the hard way. When you see press releases from these guys, always analyze the strategy - not just the stock price.. try to figure out what it means, not just what it does to the stock price.
my opinion... I think the company has always viewed that they would have no problem getting to $2 per share as they continue to execute on plans. So their view has been to submit the application and then when they move above $2 per share they can attempt to move. A lot of companies in other industries apply after they have reached those levels. But if you look at other comparables, you will see that a price of $2 per share for HSXI is fairly easy... IF you believe all the assumptions that have been done by analysts who covered. When I first started following this stock I had taken the analyst info and cut everything in half. And if you look at some comparables, you can still easily get to stock prices above $2 per share. The problem is, they won't get there until they release financials. In the past I have said, I don't think releasing financials is important to do UNTIL they are ready to do it - i.e. I'm happy to wait until they are ready. The idea would be when you see those financials they should show millions of dollars of revenue and hopefully close to break-even or some profit. I would expect financials in Jan/Feb of next year - be conservative and call it March. I'd expect until then price could potentially jump back to a $1 or so with more positive news and realization that these are incredible levels to buy at by a larger audience.. Then once they release financials, do infomercial, sign more deals like Abbott, etc... Price goes up, then once you start getting into the 2-5 dollar range then larger funds can start buying... You get the picture, but it is all contingent on getting these things done - that is your risk..
By the way, here are some of the comparables I look at:
BVX, ABMD, REST, IRIX, SONO (this was the only comparable used by analysts - I think that's a little weak)and then finally VMSI (this one has revenue today of where HSXI was projected to be in 5 years)... Look at stock outstanding, revenue, profit/loss, PE, etc., etc.. You don't know much about HSXI because we don't have financials. But they have made statements that they expected to be cash flow positive in 2007 (I would guess 2008 now is more likely considering infomercial is pushed out, etc), etc.. Make some assumptions about how much revenue they will bring in, etc.. Then you will see it is very easy to see them above $2 per share. Especially because they (HSXI) is out of their R&D phase and has expensed their R&D along the way so unlike a lot of start up companies, they don't have this huge crushing expense that makes most of these companies have net losses - and they still trade often at several dollars per share.
not necessarily skeptical or feeling you portrayed a lie. Only point was I had heard the exact opposite and without documentation it's just un-documented opinions. But if you had an e-mail from Abbott contrary to what HSXI announced and assuming you are a shareholder, can I ask why you did not challenge HSXI? See what I mean?? The Abbott partnership is the foundation of their long term strategy so if that were no longer in effect it would be considered material and would clearly warrant a press release.
You can tell I've seen stock boards for more than a decade and am skeptical of any information that is not public - because 99.999999999% of the time, it is not accurate. I'm interested in investing opinions based on actual facts... i.e. how do you interpret the recent or past press releases and what's your take on long term strategy. Not, I talked to person x and they said y, etc... Because then it starts a long battle of trying to determine if what you posted is accurate, etc... Translation - even if you are right it is a waste of time because I would never buy or sell based on what you said..
Not saying you may not be right in the end, but lets have some damned proof people!!!! : )..... Post it with the company contact information on it if you want it to be taken seriously!!!! Because then you are either willing to be taken down as spreading incorrect info, or the person who made such a statement will be held responsible.
Otherwise, this chat page and anyone like it is a waste of time. I'm interested in what's your opinion on investing in HSXI or for shorting it for all I care. That's what this is all about... share your opinions on how to be a better investor.
It's got to be public info or substantiated otherwise posts like this are not really relevant. Because I could post the exact opposite which is what my understanding is. We could debate posts like this for days/months - your understanding vs. mine. So we (if you are a long term investor in HSXI) give them another quarter to see what they come up with. If they produce financials then it should address revenue (or lack thereof) from Abbott agreement.
I agree Matzel - think there were not any bad intentions but it has to be made very clear... Anyway, I read the info on Green Baron this morning. Since it was about time for a 3 month review of holdings, this was timely for me.. And I think overall it is good news, but I think based on what they said with this update, they need to nail these dates otherwise they will have lost credibility. I also think it now becomes more important for them to share financials by early next year (January at latest). Up to now I haven't thought too much of not seeing them, but they have had several delays and yet more delays puts them in a "put-up or shut up" situation I thought they were going to avoid.
Anyway - see my thoughts below each one if anyone is interested..
1. The enSonix@home device has been undergoing QC testing for efficacy, overall performance and durability over the past 3 months and has now been cleared on the main functions for production. Engineering had suggested additional, minor improvements in some of the features and these have been incorporated. Finished production units are expected in February 2008.
- I commend the company for being patient and getting it right.. But if they don't nail February - their credibility is out the window because that will be a full year late.. Originally Gen2 was supposed to come out spring of 2007.
2. The infomercial for the enSonix@home unit is essentially complete: the product beauty shots will be completed upon receipt of the finished enSonix@home device.
- Same as above - obviously they go hand in hand..
3. Marketing has recommended that the launch of the infomercial be delayed until February 2008 as the television clutter at this time of year would make it more challenging.
- obviously has to be timed with final release of Gen2.
4. Management has scheduled additional meetings in Dubai to address the high level of interest in our products for distribution in the Middle East.
- Not as impressive as it sounds. Middle East market is not so great. Once you get out of Dubai, Saudi, and UAE (which are not very big markets by the way), the markets are very poor and highly fragmented - not to mention riddled with ah - hello political problems galore!! I have seen many other small companies go this route and quite honestly was a little depressed to see HealthSonix announce this. I'd rather see them talk about the state of Kentucky and what they are doing there than the Middle East... Only positive spin here is if investors from Dubai are willing to back company in general..
5. The IR meetings in New York have been progressing and 3rd round meetings have been scheduled for next week. HealthSonix expects to announce the selection of one or two institutions to work with the company on its financial planning and application to move to a more senior exchange within the next 2 weeks.
- This is interesting, but not very telling.. If they get backing from major house in NY to help them move listings, then great. But obviously share price is real determining factor so for now, meaningless.
6. The ZingiberRx sampling program has yielded excellent results and several retail listing test markets are underway. A dedicated web site for the cream is almost complete and will go live within 10 days.
- Interesting and is telling of how hot the product could be. But alone, this is not enough for a company like HealthSonix to take off. The product is great and I use it (have stopped using any Tylenol etc when have muscle pain in favor of this, but it's one part of the arsenal.
7. We are currently concentrating on the ZingiberRx cream and the take home unit as they offer the most immediate sales and profits; however, the AquaSonix and Treatment Centers are still very much part of our long range plans.
- Ok great - nothing informative here..
Again - overall I think there are some good points, but if you have been following the stock as I have for a long time, in my opinion they have put themselves in a position where they HAVE TO DELIVER in February/March time-frame. In other words, they need to produce financials, get the center in florida close to completion, and release Gen2 and infomercial. So again, we will revisit in about 3 months from now.
you have to wonder who is selling at 13 and 14 cents per share....
The different in point of view is that you are looking at the trading technicals (nothing wrong with that and can be rewarding) and I am only looking at the business itself. The people moving the stock now are small buyers getting in and out, not large buyers who will carry the stock. Take advantage of these people getting in and out - short time longs and shorts..