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http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2013/05/fed-induced-stock-market-mania.html
read what he had to say on sat 5/4
great post
both family's are moving in tomorrow YHOOOOOOO
i have a new house i start tomorrow but sunday I'm going in the hot tub
yes ( we got two homes being moved back in for the first really this weekend crunch time lol )
as the market goes I'm starting to buy the short side again
in time we will see 1900 on the s+p but first we need a pull back say to the 1300s
may have to buy back some of cbi too it just may turn out to be a nice trader like intc is
hope all is well with you
for the call/put players here
you may want to look at some leaps soon on the call side for intel
as she gets closer to the mid/low 19 i will be buying
a good trading stock imo
I will be watching that 81.45 line
gold is giving a green light to the dollar move up
yes your right about that
ok stop for a sec here ............
if you went back in time 20 years -30 years - 40 years and 2008 happended ?? what would of happend ?? would we of let the banks fail ? would we have QE at all ?
but we are not 20 or 30 years ago we are here in todays world
the powers to be will do all they can to keep the ball rolling down the road ( THEY WILL CHANGE THE RULES TO KEEP IT GOING ) play the markets knowing this dont fight them ! ride there coat tails and maybe we can get a little ahead
well I'm adding to my short trade ( but at this time I'm under water ) lol but can add more if it goes lower
still holding all core stocks but sold all trading shares on the long side
only thing I'm buying (little at a time ) is on the short side
we will see if I'm right or not
make a plan and play it out
ttr
the fact that ben bernanke is now insisting he will not stop the QE means to me that he sees trouble down the road
food for thought
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
WE ARE NOW GETTING DEEP INTO EUPHORIA PHASE
We are now at the point in the bull market where traders think that stocks are bullet proof.
Back in December I warned this was coming. I said at the time that this round of QE was going to be different. That it would have a much bigger effect on the market than the analysts were expecting. I remember at the time analysts were claiming each round of QE was having less and less effect.
I was confident that QE3 & 4 would usher in the euphoria phase of the bull market. Actually Bernanke is putting in place the final components to bring about the end of the bull. Let me explain.
QE infinity has, and is generating a runaway move in the stock market. The problem with a runaway move is that it's artificial. Let's face it anyone with a shred of common sense knows what's driving this move and it isn't the economy. Bernanke is crazy if he thinks the stock market is acting normal. Well this is the guy that said the subprime crisis was "contained". Any artificial move is destined to end badly, just like the artificial housing market ended badly.
The problem with runaway moves is that they stretch way too far above the mean in both price and time. As this process progresses institutional traders become more and more nervous, so the market becomes more and more shaky. Kind of like a heavy snowfield just waiting for that last snowflake to turn it into an avalanche.
And that's exactly how these runaway moves end. At some point all of these nervous investors try to get out the door at the same time, and you get a crash or semi crash. My best guess is that it will come in June or July. Until then the market will probably continue to creep higher with occasional 40-50 point corrections.
That's another characteristic of runaway moves. They set a standard correction size early in the move and all corrections there after fall in the range. Then at some point one of those corrections spikes through the range and months of gains get wiped out in a matter of days, or even minutes. The flash crash in 2010 is an excellent example of a runaway move crash.
So here's what I think is going to play out. Unknowingly Bernanke has put in motion a runaway move that will end in some kind of crash this summer. Depending on how long and far above the 200 day moving average this thing stretches will determine how violent the crash will be when the forces of regression take over. If this lasts till summer like I think it could then we could see a crash of 15-20%.
When that happens Bernanke is going to freakout and crank up the printing presses even faster. 85 billion may become 150 billion. When that happens commodity markets are going to go crazy just like they did in 07/08 as Bernanke tried to print away the real estate implosion.
When commodity prices spike, economies collapse...just like they did in 2008.
All the pieces are starting to fall into place. QE infinity is driving a runaway move in stocks that will end like all runaway moves, with some kind of crash scenario. That will trigger even more printing which will spike commodities next year, and that will be the end of the economy and the beginning of the end for this stretched and extended cyclical bull market. Look for a final top late this year or early in 2014 and a very extended topping process as the fundamentals slowly overwhelm Bernanke's printing press.
http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2013/04/euphoria-phase.html
if she comes back into low 19,s I will pick up more trading shares and sell when it goes back up
holding my core shares but trading shares to get my money back
whats your thought on this market ?
let's make some money
all is great (got # 17 family to be able to move back into there home ) yes I get paid for it but seeing the smiles as they move back in there home is a great feeling
starting house 18 tomorrow and making money in the market things are good
how are you ?
ttr
cbi
YHOOOOOOOO nice picking big guy 5% move today
you may want to have a look at the weekly $usd 84 is coming will it break through it ? imo yes
we will see
http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx
thats alot of red
lol I like the dog shit lol
pimco makes money as you know just get your monthly divd and ride it out great talking to you i still see 1350 on the s+p this spring we will see
oh and great story about the med trades love it great job
hello SG
great to hear from you . You where always the king on scalping and glad to hear you still got
I have alway felt if you find something that works just keep doing it over and over again before long you got a little money lol
I on the other hand like the movers like silver and now usd/dkk trading off the weekly and daily charts for now and its paying off i dont really look at the other pairs just the one I'm in and dont have the time to read the news like before so just TA for me
keep making the pips talk to you all soon
ttr
yes trading weeks nows( still dkk )
still working 7 days a week fixing what sandy did up here
great to hear that about you hope the fish start bitting soon
smart move I'm still short ( and under water ) waiting to buy more at a lower price
still playing arr ?
hello javalin
hows the trading going for you ? you up north or down south ? hope all is well
dont see pennies posting ? is he ok ?
hello ptliamhis try to paper trade at first before you use real money
no nice call big guy and thank you
i now have free shares so will ride it out and put the other money to work work for me
thanks for cbi going be banking some
you see what the dollar did this week ? I'm happy
cci below not as a
nice goal you got there
before I go get some dinner ( very hungry at this time of night )
Something i have been playing with in fx markets but looks like it works on stocks too
pull up a chart I like heikin ashi but candles work too put in a 50 ma and a 100 ma and a cci 100 on the chart wait for the price/candle to cross both 50 ma and 100 ma in the same time ( in any time frame ) most times when this happens so does cci cross the 0 mark when i see this it tends to hold for a nice trade ( up or down ) the dollar on feb 7 did this on the 4 hr chart and then again on feb 21 on the daily chart so yes I'm long the dollar in fx and getting short stocks
just something I have been playing with take a look tell me what you think ?
oh pss when the price crosses just one ma at a time most times it fails on that run so good for a trade too
talk later lets make some money ttr
i see higher lows
so now we going see higher high
back up here ? some sandy homes real cheap
s+p 1700 hear we come
hello dent
you moved ?
no no no many tmes I have been wrong
Ms market is the only one I know that is right all the time
I like to let others post too that way I may learn /see soming that I missed
but will I share sure look at weekly usd i see breakout and back test we just getting started on the move up IMO
take a look at the dollar tell me what you see
15% from 1530 gets you to 1300 so its just a little pull back then up we go
this week I'm starting to build a short ( short the market ) going take weeks to months to play out but after we make some on the short side will build a nice long trade
we will see