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Hola amigo. I don't mind being called a moron. As Mark Twain reminded us, "It is better to be quiet and have people think you are stupid than to speak and remove all doubt."
KMAG is doing great business, and that is not reflected in the price. That is because KMAG hasn't completed the necessary steps to join the big kid's playground. But those steps are being taken and will occur in time. We were told that the all important audited financials will begin appearing during Q3. Other issues from NOBO to CEO share purchases will become public knowledge in time. Revelation of big name accounts will leak. The high OS is not as much a hindrance as feared. I showed projections that based on past share structure the old highs in today's shares would be .45. That is a reasonable target.
It just takes time, and the long base trading channel between appx. .005 and .0035 persists. So do we sell and await an entry point while we gamble at another table? We could estimate that all the issues will be resolved by sometime in Autumn. Why not sell now now and return? Because stocks don't work that way. We don't know when the smart money will begin accumulating.
We are bottom fishers, or more politely, value investors akin to Warren Buffet. Or we are morons by all appearances. The hard thing is to hurry up and wait, and it is so easy to spend the time rehashing and babbling.... oops.
Old timers leaving, devout believers doubting, negative sentiment snowballing, swing traders switching back from pumper to basher; all add up to a contrarian buy signal. As the ship is abandoned and the sinking is augmented by the mysterious "Darth" seller, there could be a swift, brief capitulation washout. Only the nimble and deft would benefit from it.
At that level the Darth seller will subliminally become the Jedi force of accumulation whom everyone comes to laud and love. Good luck to all trying to play this, and good fortune to those who suffer holding through the agonizing wait.
KMAG is in a long base formation and one can try to trade the channel or accumulate at the lows. The valid long term technical buy signal will be when the channel is broken to the upside, tested, and higher highs and higher bottoms established. That is much higher than here.
I absolutely agree Ceeker. In fact, on the chart I gave to jaime yesterday (post# 74839) there is an indication that once we pass .05 there is clear air all the way up to .12. First there is a lot of congestion between .01 and .02 to get through. One would think, though, that with the protracted drop we've endured, all of those traders from the .01-.02 area are already out. If so, and fundamentals remain strong, .05 and above by December is not out of the question.
Yes, small world wide web, where two guys find that they share in common the West Coast, Nashville, music and KMAG. I expect KMAG to eventually pull off more surprises than that. I am thinking that berdboy's prediction of .03 by December is well within reason.
Hey Compadre. Look at my little chart custom made for you. The red arrow points to the fact that on that day in 2009 when KMAG ran up to .055 intraday, it nonetheless closed just under .03. Your plan to lighten up at .03 is wise and prudent as there is much resistance between .02 and .034. (green arrow)
However in the event that the price should make another spike like in 2009, you may consider setting another sell on an ask at somewhere near .05 in case history repeats. Keep in mind that in the long term there is little resistance between .05 and .12 and the volume is sparse pre 2009 (blue arrow).
If the KMAG yoyo fever breaks out with high volume, we could see some spectacular moves as there is little overhang between .05 and .12. All this speculation on my part is based on the premise that there will be continued earnings surprises and good news.
Good fortune to us all
I love the garden analogy. I am starting a second planting of beans and one seedling is lagging, struggling to break out of the dirt. I can only watch, knowing that any meddling on my part will only interfere with the plant's growth.
I hope you are right turn144. I have been getting those looks and commentary as well. KMAG could upgrade my status at home and even get me an allowance increase to buy more.
I have no idea how the next guidance PR will be met. With more massive selling of shares coming from who knows where? Or will potential buyers on the sideline finally jump in?
If earnings and profit margins continue exponentially as suggested, I am certain that in time you and I will be superstars at home.
poolguy, The spike to .022 a couple of months ago is an indicator of the percentage moves KMAG is capable of. But the market has not yet fully accepted Jeffery Reid's master plan. Whatever forces are depressing the price will eventually subside if profits continue to increase and contracts accumulate. To put a timeline on price appreciation is speculation but a couple more quarters of stellar growth could conceivably convince the market in my opinion. Yet it could happen any day. Trading volume is drying up indicating we are running out of sellers and buyers.
KMAG needs public awareness to draw in more buyers and maybe a killer contract would do that or just a long string of amazing earnings.
Mark Hulbert has a newsletter based on the "contrarian" approach to investing. He measures sentiment by monitoring market newsletters and tallying positive and negative commentary on stocks, currencies, etc. The concept is that when a majority is negative, there aren't many sellers left to push price down. When the majority is bullish it is likely that the market is saturated with buyers. The strategy is to bet against the crowd. There is a significant level of accuracy in Hulbert's analysis, but it has to be tempered with other fundamental data to get timing tuned. I was loosely applying contrarian theory to the feeling of negativity toward the current price that Ihub posters have been expressing. My comment was a quip and has absolutely no merit. I apologize.
You are so right. The fundamentals not only have to hold up, they have to surprise, stun and overwhelm those forces keeping KMAG down. You and others have discussed quite well what could do that. Hopefully progress will evolve and clarification will appear sooner than later.
We are not alone here. Silver stocks are lower than they were when Silver was in the teens. Yet there are bonds selling for more than they are worth. The world is crazy except for us and I have doubts about me.
These long term charts only graph how it once was and how it could be again. Earnings are way better now than when KMAG was at $1.35, so after adjustments to the current OS, .45 to .60 is not unreasonable, being essentially a breakout to new highs. But beware, the charts also warned of a possible low volume drift or high volume capitulation toward .0025. We just have to see that as a possible buying op while keeping an optimistic eye on that long term chart and an inquisitive ear on the pulse of KMAG's growth and operations. Ironically, a very positive signal is the growing negative sentiment... always a contrary indicator.
P.S. Thanks for not coming down on me when the reverse head and shoulders pattern blew up in my face. I jumped the gun and screamed buy before the buy signal was confirmed with rising bottoms. Oops. I bought and hope no one else did. The chart was accurate, I was a fool. Thankfully I am forced to average in.
Masterlu, Intermediate and long term charts below.
Of course charts need fundamentals to illustrate so, as usual, I agree with your viewpoint. They also illustrate anticipation of and reaction to news and PR's (or lack thereof). With the disclaimer that fundamentals are not reflected by price lately, here is what I see.
KMAG hit a split adjusted price of appx. $1.35 in 2007 when the share structure was about 175 mil. That SS is about 1/3 of the current SS of 609 mil. One third of the 2007 price is about 45 cents! Coincidentally, that is a resistance level and near a support/resistance level of .60 on the long term chart (green line). So if fundamentals and public perception cause a replay the 2007 price move to $1.35, a 60 cent price is a conceivable objective based on past price performance and the current OS. ..eventually. Again the technical analysis only corroborates fundamentals.
Using the same thinking we could expect resistance at just above .10, at .20 and between .45 and .50. These are long term projections! Notice that anything below .05 is just random noise on the long term chart.
So, intermediate term- On the next chart, yes, there is danger of a washout to major support in the .0025 area (green line). On the upside there are resistance levels all the way to .01 (blue lines), then intermediate term resistance just over .02 and at .034. (red lines).
For me, sometimes the big picture puts day to day drama, hyperbole and disappointment in perspective.
Very well played GOLDBUFFALO
Ha Masterlu. As Joni Mitchell put it:
"Now old friends are acting strange
They shake their heads and say I've changed."
But you're still talking to me old friend. And I'm still listening to you.
Very informative conversations here today. Thank you
Well Pilgrim, we are riding on the same trail, and I'm not getting out of the saddle anytime soon. I have plenty of KMAG which I got at much higher prices and I don't mind the wait, or the possibility of picking up more. You can see on this chart the fan formation which only shows that the rallys are getting smaller and the bottom is still defined by a long term support line. This implies that as the swings get smaller, the flippers make less money at greater risk. Bollinger illustrates this more simplistically on lowman's charts, but the inference is that we that we go up, down, or continue to drag along. Who needs a chart to figure that out! However, the Bollinger bands and the Weinstein long base channel both portend that in the end there is a probability that something dramatic will happen; ie: the coiled snake reference.
Beware the bear trap. We could have a staggering quick capitulation drop then a reversal. The converse of this has been happening with lower and lower bull trap upward spikes followed by drops.
Or if the "Bollies" widen out with an upward bias on the upper band we are looking to traverse the long base channel to the .006-.008 area and a long term buy signal upon breaking that resistance.
What all this means to me is that a buying opportunity is approaching either at higher prices or lower, but with the probability of lower risk than at present.
Woah, pardner, don't shoot.
I was paraphrasing lowman and acknowledging the the dismal prospects of the viewpoint he suggested. I also referred to turn144's optimistic scenario. My conclusion was "We shall see." Refer to my chart and observations in post# 73961 and you will see that my long term objective is .25 based on technical possibilities in response to a rosy earnings future. But I also warned that .0025 is not out of the question in the short term be it due to the Darth seller or drifting due to lack of buyers' interest.
Lowman makes a good point that technically, the Bollinger bands must resolve soon. There is a chance that price could move significantly from either side of the bands once broken. Personally I don't have the slightest idea of how this will resolve, but I have ammo in my belt waiting for Bollinger to make his draw.
There are 2 basic ways to view the reality of constantly declining price; optimistic and pessimistic, which suggest courses of action. In the long trek of riding to yonder peak I think it prudent to scout all paths no matter how gloomy some short term possible pitfalls appear.
As the great Duke said:
"Courage is being scared to death... and saddling up anyway."
In regards to your statement, "submitted for your consideration", Let's leave Rod Serling out of this!
An apt simile Buffalo. Sitting on the deck in the doldrums singing sea chanteys, carving scrimshaw, charting our position and checking the bilge for leaks.
Thank you turn. That is a good point. I would like to see KMAG break to the upside and I hope that it doesn't take a couple more convincing quarters.
That is quite impressive thinking lowman. I agree, I see no wedge in play at this time and previous wedges didn't confirm with rising channels. See my addition to your chart below. The prospect of a 54 million overhang is disturbing. Couple that with former lackluster response to news as you did and a dismal picture appears.
Turn144 offers hope in pointing out that exponential growth will open new eyes to KMAG. We shall see. But if we have a bad day and the bollinger bands break to the downside, I think we shall see selling from the recent buyers as mental stops are triggered. Then we have to examine lower support, or at least a test of the recent .0028 intra-day bottom. So we are either in a perfect buying atmosphere presently awaiting exponential earnings news, or the mother of all buying opportunities awaits us at lower levels. The resolution is to keep buying. I anticipate that a year from now we may meet at a jovial annual shareholder meeting and reminisce about these times.
Chart. At times the big picture puts things in perspective. This chart illustrates the complete history of KMAG. The price is adjusted for the split which greatly multiplied the amount of outstanding shares. Despite the dilution sometime back which converted debt to equity, it would not be unreasonable to project a long term price target of .25 simply based on historic support/resistance levels. However, the same charting techniques allow for a theoretical decline to .0025 and perhaps lower. Time will tell.
I don't know the preferred share conversion mechanics in this case, but generally as I understand it, the preferred shares must be converted to common before he gains the common voting rights. So if we get wind of him converting we could surmise that he is liquidating or there is some intrigue going on whereby he needs voting control.
This is all conjecture of future possibilities inasmuch as all indications are that presently he is not converting preferreds and is in fact accumulating commons supposedly to reduce the float. I can only accept Jeff's word that presently he wants the share price to rise.
I see your suggestion as highly probable, and I do hope that he is gaining all the shares you are observing. Because, then we know that the float is getting more reasonable for upward pressure from buyers who will appear when the conditions are right. I'm guessing that those conditions include more positive quarters, perhaps audited filings and maybe if possible some name dropping of big clients.
As I understand it, the preferred shares are convertable to common shares with voting rights. Furthermore, the number of shares after conversion gives him nearly a 50% stake in the company. Add that to the shares he is assumed to be acquiring on the open market and he could assume control of the company. A poison pill to any hostile takeover attempt or power play from an external entity.
My sardonic suggestion is that when the company's future was uncertain he found a way to convert or divert the debt. But now he wants voting control of the company and needs hundreds of millions of shares to obtain that. And who is to blame him after the recent seemingly manipulative gyrations, not to mention the rantings and inciting of shareholders on discussion boards telling him how to run his company.
Jaime. You are a welcome asset to any room you enter.
Yes, It is wise to examine all angles, even those which evoke discomfort. But the bottom line is still the one that investors look at first. I'm getting settled in on my summer place. This ole farm is like the market, sow the seeds, pull the weeds, and wait until harvest time.
Right on. All discussion of manipulation, NOBO, O/S, MM's, Mini and UFO's will disintegrate in a wash of new orders, clients and earnings. Well, maybe not the UFO's.
Let the man do his job and after a couple of spectacular quarters have vindicated the company watch the disscussions change to retirement homes and cars.
If channel traders and the sell on news strategists are ruling the price behavior it is because there are not enough value investors to shrink the virtual float. There are not enough value investors because the OS is so large and value investors need proof of value. Audited financials would help insure credibility, and several more quarters of impressive earnings will reveal that growth is sustained.
The spike to .02 was fortunate for the lucky ones who traded it, but it should not be a guideline for the future. The market will do it's uncanny best to frustrate most people most of the time. Long term investors here, myself included, act like short term investors when we make enormous price projections in miniscule time frames. And we are quick to tell the CEO how to run the company. His job is to generate business ours is to wait.
If you want to keep it positive, stop bragging about the millys of shares you have. Some of us went all in at much higher prices and can not at this time aquire large stakes. I resent those touting the large amount of shares that circumstance has given them, while I spent more money in good faith and own a fraction of the shares.
To keep it positive let's discuss the positives of the company.
A possible, eventual o/s, not float. I apologize for the error.
Oh please no more short stew. I would love some news to make the dumplings rise, I was just musing that it is not officially mandated. I totally agree with the gestalt you outlined and that there has been created an atmosphere of immediate expectation that without resolution will lead to some pot holes on that bumpy bottom.
Ironic. It is presumed that he is buying shares to assure control and to lower the float. However, with his preferred shares he has virtually raised the float to a possibily eventual 1.2 billion and has no need to buy shares for control.
But right, news about earnings makes all that irrelavant. That news is not officially necessary until earnings are reported. The emails, PR's and hypotheticals have done nothing but to stirr buzzing impatient investors. Mid summer is when this game should really start with official news. I just got in too soon and will have to ride out the bumpy bottom.
Profound Bullion. Your scenarios may still have time to play out. I would add that QE3 or whatever it will be called is what the market is waiting for. The downward trend in oil belies the slumping economy and a sentiment toward deflation. The euro fracturing is causing irrational safe haven flight into the dollar. All this is the tide retreating before the tsunami.
Jim Rogers bought dollars a year ago and yet he advocates aquiring real commodities and agricultural assets for the long term. Peter Schiff suggested that there will be a vacum drop in perceived inflation before hyperinflation hits. 2008 was the first ripple of the flood to come. 2012 or 2013 will be the caption for history and I too am accumulating physical including a farm. But while the water imperceptably rises I am loading USSIF into my ark because the assets are worth more than the price paid for the shares.
mackie, and the tug of war between frustrated speculators selling and patient long term investors buying is what creates a long basing process that could last into the Q2 reporting season. This is a good time to turn off the noise and wait. Keep buying regularly. Many are demanding some word from the company, when that has recently only brought on more frustration. Silence is golden and the company owes us nothing but to succeed. Let this silence shake out the faint of heart. Eventually, the market will recognize KMAG's value and the share price will reflect it.
"LOLman"
Yes, the truth shall set us free. Nonetheless, I am old enough to have fresh in my memory how I used to have to wait for the mail or Sunday business section to keep me informed.
Master, thank you for your insight even though the truth can at times be a sour apple to the palettes of those wanting only sweets.