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PCS @ $9.21; three key price points: about $13, about $9.50 and $8.19.
$8.19 is a crucial support level;
over $9.50 regains the positive trend line on the one year chart, just drawing a straight line through the 1/10 and 5/10 tops leads to a trend point of about $9.50;
over $13 regains the positive trend line on the three year plus chart, same as above.
For now lets just see if we can stay over the $9.15 support level (which was the old resistance).
GLTU goldbarren: PCS earnings 8/5- see where she blows from todays $9.21 close.
Todays $9.21 close is significant because PCS closed over the resistance level of $9.15 from 6/15/10;
next resistance is the $10.14 on 9/18/09;
then $11.69, which was support on 7/30/09, but is now a resistance level;
and the the $12.69 on 8/5/09.
S&P upgrades PCS to positive and predicts net free cash flow in 2010:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-upgrades-metropcs-outlook-to-positive-2010-07-02-121450
$8.19 Q2-2010 closing price. PCS earnings for Q2-2010 Thursday August 5, 2010.
Huge resistance around $9.25;
support at about $7.50.
"PCS on Track for Initial LTE Launch" http://lteworld.org/news/metropcs-track-initial-lte-launch
PCS Golden cross: 50 day ma x 200 day ma.
Bloomberg article on PCS: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aZ_aQ8GlBkPU
05/06/10 S&P RAISES OPINION ON METROPCS COMMUNICATIONS SHARES TO STRONG BUY FROM BUY (PCS 7.99): PCS reports Q1 earnings per share of $0.06 vs. $0.07, $0.07 below our estimate. Service revenue was 6% better than estimated on strong net adds and higher than expected revenue per user. EBITDA was lower than expected due to the cost of higher net adds.We believe PCS's
new pricing plans are gaining favor with subscribers and momentum should be solid throughout 2010.We are raising our 2010 earnings per share estimate by $0.01 to $0.54 and 2011's by $0.16 to $0.77.We are increasing our 12-month target price by $2 to $12 based on enterprise
value/EBITDA peer analysis. /J.Moorman, CFA
PCS Q1-2010: EPS $0.06. Net subscriber additions in Q1 were 691,602, an all time record for a quarter.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?PCS p&f: double top breakout; P.O. $15.50.
PCS' price action has baffled me, so it is hard to say right now. It is possible G4-LTE will revolutionize the wireless industry as we know it (eventual lower costs with about x10 speed). One year from now we should have some idea if Lindquist and PCS pulled off it's LTE launch successfully. If so, could be $10++. JMHO
PCS Q1 2010 results: net income of $23 million, or 6 cents per share (in Q4'09: earnings of $44 million, or 12 cents per share).
Revenue was $971 million, up 22 percent from $795 million a year ago.
PCS ended the quarter with 7.3 million subscribers, making it the fifth-largest U.S. carrier that owns its own network.
Earnings next Thursday, May 6th, for Q1'10: $0.06 avg. est. (Yahoo).
S&P is only giving yearly est. (since PCS stopped giving earnings guidance in 2009) for 2010 it is $0.53 and for 2011 $0.61.
Augria U.S.A. upgrades PCS to "buy," with $9 TP, from "hold" rating.
One holder of the 2014, 9-1/4% PCS Senior Notes: http://seekingalpha.com/article/195590-hugh-hendry-s-eclectica-fund-likes-annaly-capital-management?source=yahoo
No, but sure wish I had bought back into AXTI in July 2009 when 50d ma crossed over 200d ma. Current macd not looking to good, and overall markets overbought. JMHO GLTU
PCS to launch G4 before VZ: http://www.seattlepi.com/business/1700ap_us_tec_techbit_metropcs_4g.html
Moody's upgrades PCS debt to B1: http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=110323320&source=Newsfeed
A day late, in Q4'09 PCS borrowed about $400M, the Senior Notes Due 2013(?) were at 9-1/4%.
more on G4-LTE: "Our buy opinion ($10 TP, PCS @ about $7) reflects our outlook for 10%
EBITDA growth in 2010, despite a competitive wireless industry.
We expect further consolidation in the prepaid space that will eventually take pressure off of the competitive pricing.
Additionally, we believe that PCS's early move into 4G with LTE could bring it an early adopter advantage (and could spur growth).
We believe PCS shares are attractive at current levels ($6.25, 3/4/10)."
from Moorman's S&P PCS Stock Report, 3/4/10.
PCS @ $6.55. Closed over $6.45 50 day MA and the $6.48 on 2/25 (earnings date) and is more than a one month closing high. The 2/25 inter-daily high was $6.69.
MACD crossing into positive territory and histograms trending higher again, see stockcharts.com
If we can get there, about $8 is a huge resistance level.
Book value: $ 6.49; beta 0.65 (source: Yahoo), closed over book for first time in over a month.
I have to admit I am flabbergasted by todays price action after PCS's earnings report, down almost 5% on heavy volume, >11M shares. 350K block at end of day on down tick. Can't argue with that price action, "Mr. Market" is king and "someone" wanted out of PCS today.
So with all the "good" news, for the first time PCS made over $64M in FLCF, as Curely would say, "What happened?"
PCS is too "long-term" a play, timeframe here is two+ years out.
Margins being cut to mid 30% due to increased expenses for rolling out new markets and plans.
Company offering no financial guidance for 2010, uncertainty, the big boys do not like uncertainty.
About $600M more long-term debt, to about $3.6B. We are in a period of economic deflation, where debt is a killer. But "the company exited 2009 with consolidated cash and marketable securities of about $1.2B." (from Zack's)
Linquist said PCS going to spend about $500M in 2010, half for G4-LTE roll-out and half for market expansions. More uncertainty here too. JMHO
February 25, 2010. S&P REITERATES BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF PCS. Q4 earnings per share, before one-time items, of $0.10, vs.$0.09, and $0.04 below our estimate. Total revenue was 4% ahead of our estimate,but EBITDA was 3% below our forecast on higher than expected operating
expenses.
We continue to think PCS holds a solid position in the high growth,
prepaid sector of the wireless market.
We are reducing our 2010 earnings per share estimate by $0.07 to $0.53, and we are introducing our '11 estimate of $0.61.
We maintain our 12-month target price of $10, based on revised enterprise
value/EBITDA peer analysis. /J.Moorman-CFA
2010 earnings est.: $0.53
2011 earnings est.: $0.61
MetroPCS generated positive free cash flow (cash flow from operations less capital expenditure) of approximately $67.7 million for 2009, compared to a negative free cash flow of $507 million in 2008. So, for the first year ever, PCS is actually making money!
Good Q4-09. 2009 EBITDA $956M; income from operations $67M; EPS $0.49 vrs. $0.42 for 2008.
"Core" mkts doing well, but growth is slowing from 2008. "Northeast" mkt expansion is the key for PCS since in 2009 EBITDA loss of $205M and "penetration of covered POP's" 2.8%, compared to "core" mkts, 2009 EBITDA +$1.16B and "penetration of covered POP's" 9%, but net additions in 2009 of 674K, more than "core" mkts total.
"Current assets:" end 2009 $1.49B vrs. 2008 $1.04B. "Cash and cash equivalents" end of 2009 $929M vrs. end of 2008 $697M.
Monthly avg. "churn:" 2009 5.5%; 2008 4.7%, not good, but almost 1.3M more subscribers in 2009 than in 2008, so that could be part of the reason.
Room to grow in "northeast" mkt, which PCS did in 2009, service revenues of $235M, vrs. in 2008 $12M. PCS needs to get "penetration of covered POP's" in "expansion" mkts to "core" mkt range of about 9%, which would be an increase of 6%, or +200% from current 2.8%.
"Cost per gross addition" (CPGA) and "cost per user" (CPU) both went up in 2009.
Linquist reaffirmed that PCS was going to move forward with G4-LTE new technology in the second half of 2010.
The "net cash provided by financing activities" increased in 2009 to $449M, due to "proceeds from 9-1/4% Senior Notes Due 2014," in 2008 is was $74.5M.
The time is now for PCS and within two years, by 2012, we should know if Linquist & Co. pulled it off. JMHO
PCS Q4-2009 earnings $0.09: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/MetroPCS-Reports-Fourth-bw-752007592.html?x=0&.v=1
Re: PCS earnings est. Moorman (S&P) has earnings est. for Q4'09 of $0.14 and 2009 $0.53. For 2010 it its $0.60 (note I believe the current 2010 avg. est. on Yahoo is $0.41)!
The only earnings estimates I rely on are from an S&P "Stock Report," (beware S&P has different types of "reports" on stocks) signed and dated by the analyst with a firm target price for the covered stock.
Even with this, you must be very wary. S&P raised PCS to a "Buy" on 7/28/09 when the stock was trading at about $12, and at that time had either an $18 or $16 TP. Today, there is a different S&P analyst, James Moorman, who still has a "Buy" on PCS and a $10 TP.
Do not rely in any way on Yahoo analyst earnings estimates, they are incomplete. Do not rely on Reuters in any way either. JMHO
"If or when gold "blows off," GDXJ is going to make a big move." from Richard Russell's dowtheoryletters.com 2/17/10. Remember: IF or when ... . Gold just over $1,100 oz.
The question -- Why hold gold if deflation is our future?
The answer -- The Bernanke Fed will fight tooth and nail against deflation. They will do it with zero interest rates and the creation of massive amounts of more dollars. This will have the effect of destroying the dollar over time. And it will direct "survival" traffic toward the one item that can not be devalued -- gold. When all confidence in fiat paper disappears, the rush will be on for the one money that cannot be destroyed or devalued -- gold.
Russell recommendation -- Do not expect too much from gold now. Over time, gold will prove to be the ultimate reservoir of wealth. In the end, gold will be "the last man standing." Compute your gold position in ounces, not in its current value in dollars.
Apr. gold closed up and holding its own after yesterday's big surge (no profits taken, which is bullish). If or when gold "blows off," GDXJ is going to make a big move."
Q4'09 institutional holders just about filled in, button in I-Box. Wellington largest seller at almost 8 million shares, but still holding a nominal amount of PCS so not at the end with the sold out positions.
Janus sold about 60% in Q4 after being buyers in Q2 & Q3.
T. Rowe Price added, becoming the second largest shareholder.
On the whole, IMO, not good and I am looking at damage control here just trying to get out without a loss at about $7.35 avg. GLTA
fredman, pz don't keep posting the same thing, we know where you are re: PCS.
MACD hisograms trending up, almost to zero, even after todays hit. MACD line crossing over signal line. Technically PCS is showing we are headed up. JMHO
the end of Embry's Vancouver speech, Jan/2010 : "More importantly, if gold were overpriced (@ $1,100), the gold producers would be experiencing an earnings bonanza. A close examination of the recent earnings statements of most major gold companies reveals that they are earning very little and are certainly not achieving the return on capital necessary to justify their involvement in a very risky and difficult business.
I find sentiment in the sector to be remarkably subdued in the face of compelling fundamentals. Many attractive junior gold stocks are not even keeping up with the rise in the gold price. If history were any guide, these stocks would be rising at three to four times the rate of the gain in the gold price, but investor skepticism is holding them back.
From a media perspective, if we were approaching the end of a bull market, the newspaper articles and television clips would be universally bullish touting the obvious merits of the yellow metal. There is indeed more coverage recently because of the relentless price rise, but it tends to be skeptical with the bearish commentators continuing to get the most exposure despite having been continuously wrong.
There is no better example of this than an individual who my compliance department would prefer that I not identify. However, I'll give you a broad hint -- he writes virtually daily for a noted Canadian gold Internet site. Dubbed the Tokyo Rose of gold commentators, he is always quoted in articles with a negative slant despite having been consistently wrong since the inception of gold's bull market. In my opinion, as long as he gets any press at all, we are a long way from the end of this bull market in gold.
Finally, it is widely acknowledged that if the peak gold price in the last great bull market ($850 in January 1980) were to be adjusted to reflect the U.S. inflation rate in the intervening period, it would be equivalent to $2,300 today. That the current gold price is approximately half of that should put to rest any suggestion that this is a bubble.
That's not to say there aren't several bubbles forming in other financial markets (most notably in government debt instruments) as a result of a new bout of central bank madness, but gold is not on the list. In fact, I believe that we are many years and several thousands of dollars in price away from the end of this powerful bull market.
In conclusion, I now firmly believe that the chances of gold ever trading below $1,000 per ounce are remote. The only caveat I would offer is that if the world suffered a catastrophic deflationary collapse, an outcome long predicted by the noted Elliot Wave theorist Robert Prechter, gold could briefly be swept under but would then re-emerge with even greater relative strength as the only true safe haven. However, in a world of pure fiat currency, I think that a near-term deflationary outcome is highly unlikely. In fact, I strongly suspect that gold is going to stage a parabolic rise from current levels in the not-too-distant future, a development that will come as a shock to the many detractors of the world's only real money.
Gold is the only real money because it isn't someone else's liability.
This remains one of the best supply-demand imbalance stories I have encountered in my long career and it will only be enhanced by the existence of massive short positions that will be impossible to cover amid myriad paper claims on gold that dwarf the physical supply, which, by the way, is a subject for another day.
Thanks very much for listening. It has been an honor to speak to you."
Comments on GDXJ and speech by John Embry:
from Richard Russell's dowtheoryletters.com 2/210 (no connection but highly recommended, especially for gold bugs, $300 a year)"
"The whole universe of precious metals was higher with April platinum up 39 to 1578.80. I'm thinking of buying GDXJ, the low-priced mine index which includes 50 smaller gold mines. If gold ever blows off (which I think it will) there'll be a frenzy to buy the smaller gold mines, many of which will be taken over. It happened back in 1980. Big mines buy 'em for reserves."
Also: all people interested in gold and fiat money must read John Embry's, Chief Investment Strategist, Sprott Asset Management, Toronto, speech on 1/18/10 in Vancouver. He lays it all on the line re: the future of gold and fiat money. His complete speech is posted on RR's dowtheoryletters.com daily blog on 2/1/10, but you need to subscribe to get this, but this is one way of gets Embry's speech.
LEAP's debt is part of the problem for PCS to digest it. As some of the blogers have said, maybe LEAP needs a bigger fish to catch it than PCS. We shall see.
PCS and LEAP have their broadband services on different platforms, Leap uses 3G, PCS is going to use LTE, or G4, technology.
So, again, it does not make sense that PCS buy LEAP. IMO Lindquist made a brilliant move leap frogging over 3G, going straight to G4 technology, which is supposed to be about x10 faster and cheaper to operate. LTE is the future of wireless communications.