What am I doing? I'm waiting for the trade to come to me! What are you doing?
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when? soon I hope
FAZ is look'n very interesting at this level
For those wondering why the market leaked higher in the last hour, it is because someone got an advance copy of the transcript (or advance notice) that in this Sunday's latest attempt at faux transparency on 60 Minutes, the bearded mutant-cum-supreme genocidal overlord says that more QE is coming. From Reuters: "The euro rose to a session peak against the dollar in late afternoon New York trade on Friday after a report on the CBS website that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did not rule out buying more than $600 billion of bonds in further quantitative easing." It also explains why the euro is back to 1.34, and is right in line with our expectations that the EURUSD is only weak so long as the market realizes that much, much more QE is coming. How much? See the chart below for our ongoing expectation of what the Fed's balance sheet will look like soon. And yes, the $7 dollar jump in gold late in the day may be multiplied 10-20x on Monday after the world realizes that the US economy is as fucked as always.
Perhaps it is time for Goldman to revise its 48-hour old "alles gut" call?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bernanke-tells-nation-sunday-more-qe-coming
naaa.. FAZ will start getting the love it truly deserves
Thanks Sid!
Thanks, yeah a running fld would definitely be a nice present! Unfortunately I've added my fld shares to my heaping pile of "hope stocks".
I'm sorry to hear that, maybe a vacation would help, it usually helps me. me? I'm doing ok, today is my b-day so I have that go'n for me.
How've ya been Connie?
We're used to it No respect I tell ya, no respect
I get the same feeling 4kids! Thanks so much for your continued insight. Yours truly appreciates it very much!
cheers!
PB
I like to plot the 15min, watch the 5min and play the 1min
Well technically it works in any timeframe but depending on the market it's much harder to pick bottoms and tops in shorter timeframes.
Fibanocci levels work well with the f's too
Thanks for your response Cowboy I'll check those out!
Cheers!
PB
Cowboy, do you have a favorite news source where you get the latest "financial news" sentiment?
The Dylan Ratigan Show: Investigating 'fraudclosure'
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31510813/#40221916
Govmn't high salaries are in place merely to "stimulate" the economy. Don't you get it? We should be thankful to all those govmn't "workers" because they're saving us little people!
I solved it. Just call me "slash-n-burn" from now on. LOL
well that explains it! LOL
sure, who wouldn't wanna be a cowboy!?
Nice call! When I grow up I wanna be just like you Cowboy!
I saw that, those sitting on FAZ right now should be rewarded nicely, not that I condone such trading behavior
Yessireee! choo-choo......chugga-chugga-chugga-chugga
So Long, Dollar by Jeff Fisher
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig11/fisher-j3.1.1.html
Every day the US Dollar moves closer to collapse.
International investors, unlike most Americans, are aware of the risk, and are nervously watching Gold and Silver march higher.
As the primary reserve asset on central bank balance sheets, the US Dollar is a major risk for central banks and their solvency.
How will central banks deal with this balance sheet risk?
First, it is clear that no central bank can sell Dollars and buy their own fiat money which is a balance sheet liability.
If they did, it would be a direct deflation of their banking reserves and highly disruptive to their own domestic credit system.
Therefore, a central bank must sell dollars for anything but their respective currency.
For example, we recently witnessed China buying Japanese JGBs.
This creates a potentially very chaotic condition for markets.
US dollars may at any moment move very quickly from storage on central bank balance sheets into the global economy chasing anything and everything capable of being a reserve asset.
The dollar's velocity would be very likely to spin ever higher as buyers and sellers toss it back and forth like a hot potato.
The effect of the Dollar repudiation US Treasury bond prices will be extremely negative.
QE II is an attempt by the Fed to get ahead of any Dollar selling to stabilize long-term interest rates.
We are already seeing sovereign debt prices collapse in Ireland, Portugal, and Greece.
The factors pushing up yields in those countries exist in the US, UK, Spain, and Japan.
However, any attempt to cap yields will just tend to push rates higher.
Ludwig von Mises explains this very well in his book, The Theory of Money and Credit:
At first the banks may try to oppose these two tendencies that counteract their interest policy by continually reducing the rate of interest charged for loans and forcing fresh quantities of fiduciary media into circulation. But the more they thus increase the stock of money in the broader sense, the more quickly does the value of money fall, and the stronger is its countereffect on the rate of interest. However much the banks may endeavor to extend their credit circulation, they cannot stop the rise in the rate of interest. Even if they were prepared to go on increasing the quantity of fiduciary media until further increase was no longer possible (whether because the money in use was metallic money and the limit had been reached below which the purchasing power of the money-and-credit unit could not sink without the banks being forced to suspend cash redemption, or whether because the reduction of the interest charged on loans had reached the limit set by the running costs of the banks), they would still be unable to secure the intended result. For such an avalanche of fiduciary media, when its cessation cannot be foreseen, must lead to a fall in the objective exchange value of the money-and-credit unit to the paniclike course of which there can be no bounds. Then the rate of interest on loans must also rise in a similar degree and fashion.
As the dollar falls, the asset side of central banks will be falling in value, too.
This will pressure a dollar heavy central bank's solvency.
How will Japan respond? Will they panic and begin adding Yen assets?
If so, that will inject base money into the Japanese fractional reserve banking system and be wildly inflationary.
What about the other Asian central banks? They all have balance sheets loaded with dollar assets.
If they begin purchasing assets in their respective currencies, massive inflation will break out in their economies, too.
What about Gold and Silver? On a net basis, central banks can not increase their gold or silver reserves.
Quite simply, there is not any way of increasing supply in a meaningful way.
The next big risk is how will international trade be settled?
If India and China no longer want dollars, how will they settle trade?
The Indians will surely not want to grant the Chinese the luxury of settling in Yuan, nor will the Chinese want to grant India the luxury of settling in Rupee.
What about Russia/China trade? Or Japan/Saudi trade?
The IMF, controlled by the US, will likely suggest SDRs.
SDRs are too dollar centric and esoteric to be accepted internationally.
Trade must be settled and mutually beneficial or it will not happen.
Without trade global economies will collapse.
This is the biggest risk of all, and it must be addressed immediately.
Gold is the only commodity that can fill the void that the collapse of the dollar will create.
The Dollar stole Gold's historic role as money at Bretton Woods, and only Gold can replace the dollar in international trade.
The unique conditions created by World War II facilitated the rise of the Dollar.
Those initial conditions will never be replicated for the US or any other Nation.
awwww... too late, I switched to beer already Maybe next time.
It looks like FAZ will be fun tomorrow! Coiled like a spring is my assessment. Let's see what happens......
how do you take it? I'll fix ya a cup.
FAZ is the favoured ETF based on the the daily chart, that's for sure. Lately I've been trying to determine a general trend by looking at longer term charts in pre-market. This morning for instance, the 15 and 30 min charts indicated that FAS was going to be our general "up trend" ETF for today. I'm wondering if I'm biasing myself by doing that. The F's do seem to have a mind of their own ya know. lol
Sounds like wise advice. I try to play the FAS/FAZ pair, I wonder if watching both charts is just making things more complicated for myself.
awesome, FAS has been berry berry good to me
cha ching!
Fed Celebrates Its 100th Birthday
http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/economy/commentary-mainmenu-43/5102-fed-celebrates-its-100th-birthday
In a remarkable show of both contempt and hubris, the Federal Reserve System announced that it will be celebrating its 100th birthday at exactly the same place where it secretly started, in Jekyll Island, Georgia.
The first meeting was carefully concealed from the public, as attendee Frank Vanderlip, President of National City Bank of New York (representing Rockefeller and Kuhn-Loeb banking interests) noted later:
Despite my views about the value to society of greater publicity for the affairs of corporations, there was an occasion, near the close of 1910, when I was as secretive — indeed, as furtive — as any conspirator…. I do not feel it is any exaggeration to speak of our secret expedition to Jekyll Island as the occasion of the actual conception of what eventually became the Federal Reserve System….
The servants and train crew may have known the identities of one or two of us, but they did not know all, and it was the names of all printed together that would have made our mysterious journey significant in Washington, on Wall Street, even in London. Discovery, we knew, simply must not happen, or else all our time and effort would be wasted. If it were to be exposed publicly that our particular group had got together and written a banking bill, that bill would have no chance whatever of passage by Congress.
In celebrating its “centenary of the 1910 Jekyll Island meeting that resulted in draft legislation for the creation of a U. S. central bank,” it is holding a two-day conference to discuss 1) the origins of the Fed, 2) how closely the Fed has followed its original “mandate,” and 3) what its track record “teaches us about its role going forward.” In a hat-tip to its conspiratorial foundation, the Atlanta Fed’s website admits that the Jekyll Island meeting in November, 1910 was secretly planned by Senator Nelson Aldrich, the chairman of the National Banking Commission:
Over the years, the clandestine nature of the meeting has been criticized as allowing undue Wall Street influence over the founding of the U. S. central bank. However, the meeting itself was just one step in the process that led to the creation of the Federal Reserve. [Emphasis added.]
The conference taking place this weekend follows the announcement of “QE2” (Quanitative Easing), the now permanently ongoing monthly attempt to reflate the economy with money created out of nothing. Chairman Ben Bernanke, who is chairing the conference, wrote in the Washington Post:
Not withstanding the progress that has been made [by the Fed] … we could hardly be satisfied. The Federal Reserve’s objectives … are to promote a high level of employment and low, stable inflation…
The FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] decided this week that, with unemployment high and inflation very low, further support to the economy is needed.
Once that decision was made and announced, the chairman then left for the celebration off the coast of Georgia along with former Chairman Alan Greenspan and presidents of various branches of the Fed from Atlanta, Philadelphia, Cleveland, St. Louis, and Dallas. On the roster of presenters are various economics professors and Gerald Corrigan, managing director of Goldman Sachs and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The Fed is considered to have more power over the economy than even the Congress. In commenting on the new financial regulation bill, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) said, “The regulations [in this bill] should be on the Federal Reserve. We should have transparency of the Federal Reserve. They can create trillions of dollars to bail out their friends, and we don’t even have any transparency of this. They’re more powerful than the Congress.”
The Daily Bell noted that the meeting is in distinctly bad taste, given the timing of the announcement and the continuing flow of bad economic news that drove the decision by the FOMC to do more of what hasn’t worked so far. But because of the power of the Internet, the Fed faces increasing pressure to disclose its behavior, especially now that Rep. Paul appears to be headed to chair the House monetary committee that oversees the Fed.
One hundred years ago, the Fed was spawned in a secret meeting of bankers and Wall Street financiers. Without the Internet and thousands of bloggers and investigators exposing the machinations and imminent destruction of the currency as a result of Federal Reserve policies, the 100th birthday of that meeting would most likely also be taking place in secret.
Ron Paul Is About to Totally Revolutionize the House Monetary Policy Panel
Odds are you haven’t heard of the monetary policy subcommittee. Officially known as the House Subcommittee for Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology, it’s a subdivision of the House Financial Services Committee that has mostly occupied itself with pressing questions of issuing commemorative coins and whether or not to eliminate the penny.
That’s about to change. Ron Paul, the Republican Congressman from Texas, is the ranking member of the monetary policy subcommittee, and when the next Congress takes over he’ll likely be the chairman of the subcommittee.
And Congressman Paul has some big plans.
“I will approach that committee like no one has ever approached it because we’re living in times like no one has ever seen,” Paul said in an interview with NetNet Thursday.
Paul said his first priority will be to open up the books of the Federal Reserve to the American people.
“We need to create transparency there. To see what it is they are buying and lending, and who it is they are dealing with,” Paul said.
Paul mentioned that he hoped to use subcommittee hearings to educate the public about the causes of business cycles—which he believes are mainly attributable to monetary manipulation by central bankers.
Monetary reform is also on the agenda. Paul is a noted advocate of the gold standard.
“We will have to have monetary reform,” Paul said. “I think those on the other side of this issue are already planning. They are going to try to replace a bad system with an equally bad system.”
Study agriculture and mining, Jim Rogers advises Oxford University students
INTERNATIONAL. Legendary global investor and chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, Jim Rogers said trying to push the problem out to the future by printing more money isn't going to work.
In a lecture at Oxford University’s Balliol College Thursday, Rogers reiterated his opinion about US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, saying, “all he understands is printing money."
“Dr. Bernanke unfortunately does not understand economics, he does not understand currencies, he does not understand finance,” Rogers told the audience.
He was referring to Wednesday's Fed annoucement that it will buy an additional US$600 billion of Treasuries through June, expanding record stimulus in a bid to reduce unemployment and avert deflation.
Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital, believes there are other reasons behind the Fed's announcement.
"At the end of the day, all the deflation talk is a red herring. As global demand for dollar-denominated debt falls, the Fed is looking for an excuse to pick up the slack," Shiff said in his last weekly commentary.
"The true purpose of QE2 is to disguise the decreasing ability of the Treasury to finance its debts," Schiff claims.
"By announcing QE2, it [the fed] can monetize government debt without the markets perceiving a funding problem. If the truth were known, a real panic would ensue. So, the Fed pretends buying treasuries is simply part of its master plan to boost the economy, even though, in reality, it is simply acting as the buyer of last resort," he wrote.
The New York Fed's operational account – where QE2 purchases will be held – already owns 30% of T-bonds maturing between 2014 and 2020.
Two-thirds of the Fed's newly created US$600 billion will be spent on T-bonds maturing between those dates, notes Tracy Alloway at the FT's Alpha blog.
“All he [Dr. Bernanke] understands is printing money,” Rogers said in his Oxford University lecture.
“His whole intellectual career has been based on the study of printing money,” he said. “Give the guy a printing press, he’s going to run it as fast as he can,” Rogers was quoted as saying.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan weigh in the debate, commenting on QE2 last night.
Speaking at the foreign-exchange FX10 Conference in New York sponsored by Bloomberg, Greenspan said the US is involved in a "dangerous game" and a "risky strategy."
"When the Greek crisis hit, everything reversed and the flood of money coming into the dollar turned that around," Greespan said referring to the strengthening of the US currency in the May-June period.
"The overall reactions in this market are really telling us that we're involved in a dangerous game," Greenspan said.
I know everyone is saying, let's wait for a couple of years...let's keep the stimulus going...then we'll solve the problem, he added.
"I think it's a very risky stategy," the former fed chairman stressed, adding that If he knew we could do that, then it would obviously be the best strategy. However, "I am not sure the markets will allow him to do that," he concluded.
Rogers outburst in Oxford didn't surprise his many followers as he has been repeating his views on US economic and monetray policy in many appearances on Business TV networks and other events around the world.
"The things that have worked in the past... will be you go bankrupt then you re-organize and you start over. You have a painful period for awhile, and then you start over. This has been done in the past 3-4 thousand years, and that's the way you do it," Rogers said recently.
"Trying to push the problem out to the future, and printing money, we just had another example here in the US, it didn't work and it's not going to work."
With central banks "flooding the world with money," the only place for investors right now is in real assets, such as metals and agricultural products, to protect themselves from central banks debasing currencies, Rogers advises.
"Paper money is not going to do it for you," he tells investors.
Yesterday, he told students in the audience to scrap career plans for Wall Street or the City, London’s financial district, and to study agriculture and mining instead.
Rogers has spent a career being one step ahead of mainstream investment thinking. He rose to fame after co-founding the now-closed Quantum Fund with George Soros nearly four decades ago. During his ten years with the fund, the portfolio gained more than 4,000%, while the S&P rose less than 50%.
The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.
--John Maynard Keynes
this 'ol dog is learn'n every day! LOL
Another great site is http://www.babypips.com/school/, while it concentrates on FOREX most of the lessons apply to trading equities as well.
Our friend Sidney turned me onto that site! Thanks Sid! :)
That's a great site!
Grant Says Fed Seeking to Generate `Debased' Dollar