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there are many things that could derail this so called bull...things that no one is really talking about...who knows, maybe aliens invade on august 1st... haha...if they take obama place, maybe we will rally, who knows.
mom and pop don't have money to put in this gambling casino anymore...they are buying food, and trying to pay the mortgage, just hoping to keep there jobs or not get there credit line shut off to keep there small business open...it's a currency game of hot potato, and when the music stops is when it will end...and i think the c.d. is skipping here!
that candle stick does not spell continuation...
we closed below the, so spoken about on cnbc, 200...and the 50% fib level. looking at the weekly and monthly, still nothing to suggest anything higher than what we have already achieved...if they want to be cute and double top it at 1130, that fine, but wouldn't that be too much of a repeat of feb. 2009, before the crash down to 666...just a thought
blasher you read my mind with that secondary smaller pitch fork...we are right up against the mid line...and a backtest of the broken up move that created that gap lower at the end of june...nice!
it is in the making my friend...a gap up tmw will be faded...and would be akin to your long call with bernanke speaking last tuesday...take a look at chart 1.2, there is lot's to observe on the chart...and it is suggesting an end to trend...keep your eyes peeled!
how many days did we close above the 200ma on the daily spx chart?
make a fist with your right hand and stick up the finger next to your index, and that is your answer!
doji candle...
djt down 1.3%
oil down 2%
and 30y bonds held that higher low on the daily...
how much more evidence to suggest a top is needed?
more like a brisk walk...
either this is the warning of the end, only to begin the real selling friday, or, it's the beginning of the end. take your pick... will be waiting to see what happens at the open tmw...if we do not gap higher and have a trin sub .50 i will be looking to buy more puts.
out just before the spike...
bought 105 spy puts @ .58$
sold 105 spy puts @ .74$
i can see this is a top in the making. doji may very well materialize itself today!
well...to mesh the two perhaps would be best...i saw the potential for reversal at the vix 21.87, and the 50% fib retrace for spx...so, picked up some 105 aug puts for .58$ will be out sooner than later...looking for .87$ for an exit.
in the before market action there was a spike on spy to 107.36. and over the last 2 trading days they hit around that number aswell...it seems like a far ways away...but these spikes have a history of being met sometime in the near future after being generated. will be interesting.
what do you think of vix at that 21.87...short term support? maybe try to get back to 25? before going to 18.75?
did vix hit support on some time frame here at 21.86
new highs are not following...and the bonds, which is a leader not a follower, have not made a lower low. this is my single day above the 200sma on the daily...tmw should be a doji, with a close below 200sma...then down
will be looking to short the 1st hour of open tmw...1120-1124, then 1080 sometime this week.
that would fit perfectly with my scenario!
does he only have one count? why 1189, and does he give a time frame?
if you insist on us calling you crazy. :)
let's talk again on monday's close...
i really hope they can pop this up here...
down she goes...
i will be shorting the last hour, looking for a 5 minute topping candle stick to enter...
the 26th is a big astro-day with explosive consequences.
so if you do not see a clear direction why buy puts? why not wait? are you board? afraid to miss the move?
just trying to stimulate some neurons...
no doubt...but i am looking for specific data to support position. earlier, i suggested to be careful due to the weekly crossover of the 13 and 55sma on the weekly. that with the macd below the 0 line, and momentum continuing a down trend, would give me conviction to hold puts, regardless of price action on the shorter time frames. for entry of those puts i would pay closer attention to the hourly and 15 min charts for topping patterns. but that's me. i am curious what was Harley's motivation at the time of buying those puts.
technically on chart what prompted you to take that position exactly when you did...if you do not have a good answer with specifics, you will be in a world of pain, unless you are lucky by nature.
you must of had a good reason to get in those puts...has anything changed since you purchased? is this noise? can you add at higher prices? when do you think it will get to 107?
free murray math webinar right now. https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/296296475
hey fox, nice 4/8ths retrace for amzn coming up here...112.50, might be a happy place to short once again.
2-bit, attention sil vous plait! the weekly chart of oex has a very very very bearish cross of the 13sma and the 55sma. the 13sma is falling, 55sma is flat and the next support under is the 89sma. so for next week, unless we close above 510 today, is 463. in my opinion it will overshoot that by a little, then go down further the following week. the last time the 13sma crossed below the 55sma on a weekly time frame was back in the 2nd week of jan. 2008. and the 3rd week of trading in jan was a big down. so if i were you, i would once again take a look at the higher time frames for an answer to this chop chop chop.
bonne chance mon ami!
i'm making the move right now...it's so much easier compared to this game. euro, british pound, and aussie dollar going to be my markets.
u in any trades?
we should get a shooting star daily candle tmw...which will let you know that the top is in.
the correlations are not correlating in this market in case you missed that...
they bought sept, cause they are big money, and don't need money right now, and know that the market is going to take there option to a 10x-20x there investment in time...
i guess i rather play a 200pt downside target then a 20 pt target higher...that's just me though.
do you think the market will be bullish if does...i have said before, that the best fake out and the best pick pocket play for the boyz would be to close 1 day above the 200ma, then tank it...get everyone long or thinking long, then down down down!
if you want to bet against 25,000 spx sept puts bought at the bid yesterday, and confirmed today with the open interest going up in exact proportion, be my guest.
not too mention the 50,000 vix 60 calls that were picked up for aug expiration, two days ago.
for the short term...
keep you eye on the bonds. has not changed it's trend, and holding very well right now.
did you not pay attention to the astro-elements that are starting to take shape tmw, and thereafter?
when djt is up 4% the trend should be clear and pullbacks are buys...for now of course...the winds of change are coming tmw...you will be able to get in some puts for next to nothing and make some crazy cash in the weeks to come.
sideways...look at the hourly...the 13 and 89 are both pointing straight up so the bias is up...macd is well in pos territory...relative momentum index is above 70 and still climbing. so the trend right now is up...either look for pullback set up to the 13sma or sideways and reversal down.
the 5min says up..it's not even close to looking bearish yet...
i am talking about the oex here and above.
look at the next higher time frame for answer...if not there, go to the next time frame till you get the answer...either today or tmw will be a tradeable top, fyi!
did not know that you spoke french too...took me a second to figure out what you meant there...cleaver!
price target and time frame...
431.25 coming for your oex...