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Double from yesterday's close. My first 100% rise in a day.
Best ask was 81 a few moments ago...
About to jump?
True. This has been a very good morning, especially with all of the anticipated dilution. I don't have any idea where the stock price might stabilize. But I see that since 10:00 the price has been focusing more narrowly into about 54 cents, but a top of under 57 that wouldn't get taken out after a few tries. My guess is that the breakout later will be upward, and we may surpass 65 cents, a double of yesterday's close.
I wouldn't put a lid on today yet. The leg up this morning might not be the last one. We have already tested 50 cents twice as a bottom and could break out above 60 cents in minutes.
Watch the volume and compare the earlier highs.
The old high was about 59 cents in June, but the stock was living in the low to mid 50s soon after while management was seeming to get its act together. We are back in that range this morning, but no better so far.
Volume is also rather high, but not yet at records.
This leads me to believe that some PIOE investors had some idea of what was announced this morning. Obviously it was good enough news for us and some others to be surprised by, and this brought a round of new buying and a return to valuation that others had already considered appropriate.
So far, though, it doesn't look like a "sell on the news" situation since the stock is not well known and the earlier "rumors", if any, were not out there for people to know about in any big way.
So I am hopeful that the news will create a lot of new buying interest as more investors learn about this company.
The turducken is in the oven!
Best ask was up to 60 cents moments ago.
Hopefully it turns out to be a chicken stuffed into a duck stuffed into a turkey and we all go home well fed...
If you know something good is coming down the pike, the answer is unavoidable. You tell us. On this board. Right here. Today.
PIOE looks to be in bottom-fisher's mode lately. (At least, I hope it's at the bottom.)
We have bigger volumes, but the price isn't rising. If something were cooking at the company, I would expect a slow rise until the news develops.
But what we have now is "the exit of the impatient" (and who could blame them?). The bottom-fishers are snagging the shares as their owners give up and move on.
Q3 Releases Were Between 10/26 and 11/18 Since 2011. So we probably have at least a month to wait.
Doubtful a press release for patent sale/lease appears. Maybe something has sold by now. Who knows? The next quarterly report would say, but I doubt that a sale would appear as news unless it was huge.
Nothing to worry about when volume dries up in no-news PIOE. The fun (or worry) comes later when something in the company changes.
For now, here are the rules:
1. On high volume days, we say something like, "PIOE is worth 45 cents."
2. On low volume days, we say, "PIOE is worth 48 cents if you want to buy it, 39 cents if you want to sell it."
It's just the nature of tiny volumes to create a large spread between bid and ask. (Or maybe, temporary large spreads create low volume days.)
Not much good news imaginable except expenses in an inactive company should not be taking much away from cash holdings for legal fees, administrative and accounting fees (since a lot of that work is done). And if officers are not taking any salaries that would help. Oh, and maybe their new specialist director will soon find buyers for their cutting-edge technology patents. Oh, and maybe they are negotiating with a company to acquire profitably.
100 shares sacrificed at 36.81 cents proves nothing.
Not much bad news imaginable except expenses eating away at cash holdings, such as legal fees, administrative and accounting fees, and if officers are taking any salaries or reimbursement of expenses. Oh, and maybe they can't find buyers for their aging technology patents. Oh, and maybe they can't find a company to acquire profitably.
I also see that a class action lawsuit is filed against GSB for allegedly overstating licensing revenue by around $400k in 2016. I assume that is what caused Accounts Receivable to be reported allegedly incorrectly high by around $400k.
I don't like to see lawsuits. Has the company made an explanation or defense of the situation?
Do you think GSB will be profitable enough to take full advantage of NOLs? They have earned between $3.74 MM and $6.50 MM annually before taxes over the last four years. Their before tax profit margin was 18% in 2016, which may be hard to maintain.
The NOLs may last a long time. Too long to be valued highly?
Agreed that the heavy buyers are still in. There has not been enough volume to indicate that the big guys are getting out at all. But movement of smaller players did drop the price after the report. And it is certainly normal to see share prices move after financial reports come out!
The rumor mill gears up for big grind!
Those who lost bets on their 50-cent investments into the idea that big news was due may be nearly finished with their selling and they are moving on to other bets.
Meanwhile, it is good to see that those who remain still see PIOE as worth 4.5 times book value, with movement back toward 5.0 (around 50 cents per share).
The Value of the NOLs
Much has been made on this Board of the NOLs being valuable. I am unclear on how this could play out in an acquisition, but please correct any of the following if I am wrong.
If there is an acquisition where PIOE buys a company and the previous owners receive their price and go away, the NOLs would mean nothing to those sellers. They get their cash, but they can't receive NOLs-- NOLs couldn't transfer to them to use somewhere else.
After such a buy by PIOE, PIOE would be making money with their newly acquired company and use the NOLs to reduce taxes. The NOLs' benefit goes to PIOE.
So, to use NOLs in an acquisition, PIOE would have to acquire something where the owners of the acquired company stick around and do not just take cash and walk away. Maybe this would be more like a "merger" than an "acquisition". In a stock deal like that, the owners of the company that would be merged into PIOE could benefit in the future by the NOLs because the stock that they receive would benefit down the road with non-taxable earnings.
But how much would those owners discount their acquisition/merger price because they might make future profits that are benefited by NOLs? Like you said, Paideia, "Once a deal is announced we'll probably be able to figure out the value all parties agreed the NOLs were worth." Would they be worth much in the merger? I don't know. Would they be worth much to the stock price when it is forecast that the newly merged PIOE will 1) have earnings going forward and 2) have no tax liability on those earnings? That should be a "YES" in my opinion.
It's only lower until the next good rumor.
As I recall, they have $4.5MM cash and a line of credit of $10MM. They are trying to sell or license their patents, of an unknown asset value.
So, perhaps they can control a $20MM company all together. Maybe profits would run around 20% return on assets (which is quite high), or $4MM per year. (At that size the NOLs would be very underused.)
Maybe that is what keeps the stock price above 40 cents or so.
I still don't have a clue how PIOE could own a company that would have earnings large enough to be worthy of its NOLs. Maybe $30MM in yearly earnings is reasonable for NOLs to last around 10 years? Maybe a 10% return on assets would be typical for such a large company? So the assets in that case would be around $300MM. How could PIOE control all that? I don't know if there would be a way or not, or how such a structure would affect PIOE shareholders.
I don't really expect that sales or licensing of patents would deserve a special announcement, so that kind of action might be announced with quarterly results. But any good results could start showing up in the stock price depending on rumors that might possibly build, or if insiders begin buying.
Or, in the lyrics performed by George Harrison,
"It's gonna take time
A whole lot of precious time
It's gonna take patience and time, um-mm
To do it, to do it, to do it, to do it, to do it
To do it right child."
("Got My Mind Set on You") written and composed by Rudy Clark and originally recorded by James Ray in 1962
Slojab, here is the exact quote from PIOE's 2nd Quarter Report: "I know many of you are anxiously looking for an announcement from the company regarding our IP monetization and/or acquisition activities; we have been active in both of these objectives and we look forward to updating you on our progress in future quarters."
I don't know what "we have been active" means. It is the opposite of "we have done nothing", is all that I can say.
The objectives that they say that they are pursuing are "IP* monetization and/or acquisition activities".
*Intellectual Property- works or inventions that are the result of creativity, such as manuscripts or designs, to which one has rights and for which one may apply for patents, copyrights, trademarks, etc.
I don't doubt that they're honest, either. Mark Ascolese entered the company after what was either a huge mistake or a fraud in 2013 when there were allegations that the company misstated the identity of a purported Chinese partner (with Qiyuan Network System Limited, which the company's management discovered was neither an affiliate nor a subsidiary of the much larger Digital China Information Service Company Limited). I would definitely have my doubts if he had been involved back then. I believe that their CFO resigned in those days as well-- sometimes a bad sign.
But since then, the company seems to be clean.
You bring up the worry about someday they may be "taken to the cleaners in a deal for the company's assets". This is very hard to judge, but they already sold nearly all company assets and took it through bankruptcy and a name change. Did they get enough for it? Book value of assets is not market value, so financial reports don't tell the whole story. The share price certainly declined greatly through those days, but maybe they averted a complete failure by getting out before it all dwindled away.
What they ended up with, as of now, is they are relieved of their debts, have patents and an investor of over $4 million. They have NOLS that should be valuable in the right place. So how good will they be at trading what the have for something better, not worse?
We don't know, but they tell us that they "have been active" in pursuing the objectives.
Hmmmm. That said, the bid sinks to $.35
I like your opinion. Rebound to 50 cents may not be far off at all if the bigger players still believe the company is worth that. I doubt that today's news changed their opinion of value. We may just be seeing traders move on to other opportunities for a very short while.
On the one hand, no bombshell news is ready. On the other, 210/P10 Investment LLC paid $4.65MM at $0.21 per share to get something.
At this point, an acquisition does not seem to have been pre-planned. But perhaps it was pre-planned and is a very slow process.
So far we are taking about a 10% hit for the disclosures made public today. Evidently, the deal is far enough in the future that they didn't want to delay the report beyond the normal time, and so they suffer some share price damage now.
Market reaction is bid/ask .47/.50 (Yawn.)
It looks like the news was as expected.
But little guys might be looking to get out for awhile on a delayed basis as the news gets around to them.
Hopefully share price would recover after a little selling. But, remember, I am a lousy forecaster!
"I know many of you are anxiously looking for an announcement from the company regarding our IP monetization and/or acquisition activities; we have been active in both of these objectives and we look forward to updating you on our progress in future quarters."- PIOE 2nd quarter report
Quarters with an "s".
Next news expected Halloween night? Late January?
About 10 cents per outstanding share, book value.
I'm thinking of the quarterly report as "Delayed" at this point, since PIOE missed their old ACPW habit of a second-quarter report by the last Tuesday in July.
What does this mean?
Report due or not, there is no major news to announce or PIOE would announce it. But a report on the second quarter may be delayed because they don't want to come out and say basically nothing at this time when they could wait a few weeks, if that is what is needed, to announce big news.
So a delayed report might actually mean something is brewing.
The share price is a pretty solid half dollar or so. It is not rising on speculation of good news, and it is not falling on fears of bad news or no progress.
In fact, it is so steady that I suspect that the bigger-money players here are able to step in to buy stock at around 50 cents when demand falls and maybe even sell stock at around 50 cents when demand rises. Those big-money people may not want to see the share price move until the deal is done. It may be important to them that their investment stay within a certain value range to protect, and not let some panic-selling whacko move the price to 20 cents during a very slow day.
So, this shapes up to be good news for now, in my mind. A deal announcement seems more likely than not in the short term, with some share price protection possibly going on. If the deal does break down, though, the price just might collapse before the news comes out. But what investment's price doesn't do that if it is about to fail?
By the way, last quarterly report was discovered on a Wednesday morning. So they apparently reported after Tuesday trading but before Wednesday trading sometime. That was on May 31.
Nobody seems interested in speculating about tomorrow's news (or lack of news). Price and volume are very quiet today. No new expectations at this time, it would seem.
News tomorrow, but is there anything to say?
Tomorrow, that is, if their pattern holds. Here are the 2nd quarter news release dates under ACPW:
Tuesday, July 26, 2016
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Monday, July 30, 2012
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Here was their latest release date (1st quarter, unaudited):
Tuesday, May 30, 2017
TUESDAYS prevail-- the last TUESDAY in JULY almost every year.
What if no news tomorrow?
1. It's a different company now, so it might report on a different schedule.
2. A delay can be GOOD if they are not quite ready to disclose something big. (News on schedule could be BAD, because they may be saying that no deal is in the works.)
I'm leaning toward that if there is news tomorrow it will be mixed. The March transactions may make the balance sheet better. But if they had super-duper news, I don't think they would hold it back until report date.
Of course, there could be a coincidence that the deal becomes ready right around the report date.
All we can do is guess about PIOE and plenty of other investments, though.
I've been invested three and a half years in ACPW-PIOI-PIOIQ-PIOE and now need 70 cents per share to break even. But 50 cents is getting more and more tempting the longer this goes on. The losses are much smaller in dollars than they were.
Worries are that maybe there is no deal soon, and maybe the patented technology is becoming old.
What keeps me in, I guess, is that I should have lost everything via the usual kind of bankruptcy, but this didn't go that way.
I have also worried that the sale of Active Power's assets were somewhat of a giveaway, so the only way to avoid messy lawsuits would be to keep the shareholders breathing for awhile. But that is on bad days...
The market believes the true price per share now is around a half dollar, and somebody real made around a $500,000 (a million shares) bet on that price being low. So I'm still hanging around hoping that the buyer was right.
But there are still bad days where being on the million-share seller's side seems the way to go.
Ten Days Until "Normal" Q2 Earnings Release Date, More or Less
But these are abnormal times.
IRS Private Letter Ruling, Anyone?
The longer the delay, the more I believe that our government is at work. This is especially true when the PIOE parties were likely to have gone into all of this complicated work and expense with a pre-planned outcome in mind.
The big story seems to be the NOLs. If PIOE's use of bankruptcy law is so outrageously novel, they may need an IRS Private Letter Ruling to be sure that the NOLs can be utilized in the ways that they wish to.
Two months is about the minimum for this process. Who knows how long "or longer" is when you are talking about the Feds?
Oh, and a Private Letter Ruling might cost $50k or more or less.
This is not the only reason for time to pass. I can think of a few more, like:
1. Company-to-be-acquired's timing is better in, say, 2018.
2. There was no pre-planned deal. PIOE was to be marketed for a good return and that marketing is still going on.
3. It was thought wise to put some time separation between the bankruptcy and what happens next to avoid any possible legal connection between new acts and earlier acts.
4. Endless other possibilities...
But if things are going awry and it takes a long time for that to happen, the government is a good suspect.
No indeed. I, bob4uall, made my 1st post here today. The question was real. I usually post to the PIOE board.
Is there expectation that stockholders' equity goes positive in the near future? The last figures I saw were negative. But they were fairly old.
What was going on yesterday? I don't know.
Since market makers generally like to keep their positions even, not overly long or overly short, the normal answer would be that the MM found a great price level yesterday where he could buy shares at $.52 and sell them at .53 all day long and in a high volume. This would happen if both a big buyer and a big seller came in on the same day, and voila!
Was this prearranged between a buyer and a seller? Well, I have seen one trade clear for many more dollars than these yesterday, so if it was, then I don't understand why there were so many +/- 10,000 blocks instead of maybe a few very big trades.
PIOE is thinly traded so there are not lots of traders coming into the market every day. So the MM may be the other party operating to handle either one big seller or one big buyer yesterday. So the MM might be longer by several hundred thousand shares now than he was, or he may be shorter (or even short) the same amount.
In this case, MM's plan would be to sell off his extra shares later at hopefully higher prices, or buy back a supply of shares at lower prices.
This still doesn't explain why there were so many trades instead of a few big ones.
But notice that buys and sells never got out of balance or the price would have moved up or down more than it did. So this seems as if the MM (or somebody) stepped in to stabilize the price when needed. Why? Unknown.
So if MM is in balance where he wants to be, expect nothing to happen. If he's sitting on more or less shares than he wants, he will try to move the price. What does this tell us? Nothing.