I am updating my staus.
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As I posted in my FUD - the company with the patents is private - it announced it's first sales this year and is backed by GS amongst others.
I don't deny there's some risks here but the information looks interesting and GS don't invest for philanthropic reasons.
rich
Hi FP - I've been reading over the most obvious documents... which bit are you referring to... I can always ask the IR department now I've phoned them - he seemed helpfull. My last question was basically do you exist and are you represting GCHT.
The diagram has 100% everywhere but they also refer to 54%'s as well...
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1380528/000114420409056757/v164649_8k.htm
rich
GCHT: Ari, It's right to emphasise the speculative nature of the stock but I still think it's worth talking about. The rate of manufacture of the £128 M order make it worth following. Interesting to see what quarterly results like - or indeed if they get them out on time
rich
Scam, can't rule it out But can't see it yet either. If information comes to mind that suggests it's a fraud I am always happy to sell whatever the position.
Who wants boring stocks anyway
rich
A little over doing it Joe, surely, he's a crook or a theif
GHCT FUD
What is the technology?
The Sweedish government funded an R&D project into windpower in 1975. The Sweedish goverment gave the developed technologies to a company called "Deltawind AB"[1]. Companies can license from this entity to commercialise the technology.
'The 2-bladed wind turbine was developed by a firm called Deltawind AB (“ Deltawind ”). GC Nordic has a 10 year license with Deltawind, with opportunity for renewal, which allows them to manufacture and distribute these turbines in the Chinese markets.' [2]
Subsequent to the deal "Nordic Wind Power" bought DeltaWind AB and will, I suspect, own it's patents.
Who are Nordic Wind Power?
Nordic Wind Power is a private company which has been financed by, amoungst others, Goldman Sacs [2]. The CEO of Nordic Wind Power originally worked for Vestas a major player in Wind Power [3].
Why the name changes?
The Visa Dorada names and similar were all due to the previous management and nothing to do with the recent mangement - see Who is JOhn L. Lennon. [6]
The GCHT changed the name of the company to "Nordic Turbines" , however, Nordic Wind Powers began to seek damanges against them. Subsequently they changed their name to GC China Turbine Corp." [4]
Why won't the company pay over $1.00 for the shares?
The share price movement has been metoric - when negotiations were done the price would have been in the $1 and change region - it opend at $1.13 on Oct 6th, the day the signed the definative agreement. It's no surprise that the institutions paid around $1, or less, for their shares.
Who is John L. Lennon?
John L. Lennon owns a number of shell companies it is claimed by others that some of these were used to defraud investors - I have not checked this information. What is clear that he is no longer involved since the reverse merger took place.
"Change in Management . As a condition to closing the Exchange Agreement and as more fully described in Item 5.02 below, Mr. John J. Lennon has resigned as the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer, President, Secretary, Treasurer and director on the Closing Date, and Mr. Marcus Laun remains as a director....." [5]
Who is Tomas Lyrner?
Tomas Lyrner is according to GCHT press release [7] to be GCHT future Chief Engineer. Tomas Lyrner has previously worked for Nordic Wind Power according to a document found on ECN website [8]. ECN is the energy research center of the Netherlands [9]. The importance to GCHT is that he was involved with the development of the turbine and will be useful in adapting the design going forward.
Best SEC Introduction to the company?
Background released an 8-K on 6th October 2009 [4]
Offical take over 8-K [6]
Stock issued to founders for cash 45,000,000 for $45,000!
What happend in 2006 during the startup of the company doesn't seem relevant but are all in the June 10-Q filing [5].
Who is there IR Firm?
The information can be found on the website [10]
Boundary Point Investor Relations, Inc.
1-888-838-8478
E-mail: info@gcchinaturbine.com
- I've checked this number and you talk to human who represents GCHT.
Where are the SEC Filings for GC China Turbine Corp?
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001380528&owner=exclude&count=40
Disclaimer:
I am a private investor in GCHT, which I consider speculative, I have never accepted money from any firm to write about it and that includes GCHT. Instead of attacking individuals I think time would be better spent attacking the evidence for and against the company.
[1] http://www.nordicwindpower.com/technology/technology.html#technology2
[2] http://www.nordicwindpower.com/news/releases/NordicWindpowerfundingrelease.pdf
[3] http://www.nordicwindpower.com/news/releases/NordicCarboneRelease031809.pdf
[4] http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1380528/000114420409051727/v162166_8k.htm
[5] http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1380528/000114420409043579/v157686_10q.htm
[6] http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1380528/000114420409056757/v164649_8k.htm
[7] http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GC-China-Turbine-Corp-Signs-iw-542176813.html?x=0&.v=1
[8] http://www.ecn.nl/docs/library/report/2001/c01059.pdf
[9] http://www.ecn.nl/en/
[10] http://www.gcchinaturbine.com/contact/contact-inquiry.aspx
Cheers CSP&FOZ - clearly I need to look at FX again
rich
Hi CSP, "China's yuan continues to strengthen" to my knowledge yuan is pegged / fixed to dollar... they trade together.
While the Chinese gov my come under pressure they haven't relented on this matter to my knowledge and don't look like they will in the immediate future.
Changing valuation between yuan and dollar is a possible upside in the mid to long term.
I'm sure your aware of this but making the point crystal clear to all readers.
rich
Ah, I'd forgotten... Am I workshy or what
I'm getting $13.37 per day which sounds slightly higher than yours. I would round that down to $13. Would even be tempted to use $10 or 11 as no one minds if your low... but whine if you are high
I wont't check your method against mine until after posting. This way I won't follow you and make, potentially, the same mistake. Sometimes it's good to reinvent the wheel
I broke it up so [A1] calculates the number of days that the shops open for all the year and the shops open from April [A2] and divided by 2 - to approx the delay for opening the shops - this assumes a constant opening rate - probably not true. Then we divide the revenue for the shops [A4] by the sum of the days [A3].
Next bit is Total number of store open days for a full year [A6]... which, finally, give the estimate of revenue for revenue from pharmacies in 2010 [A7]. I've put the forumlaes in so it's easy for anyone to put in spreadsheet and tweek.
.................................... A.........Formula
[1] Days for shops open all yr......356,400....=9*30*1320
[2] Days for shops open part........197,280....=6*30*J24/2
[3] Total Days open Sum ............553,680....= Sum(A2:A3)
[4] Rev from all Shops............7,400,000...............
[5] Dollars Per day...................13.37....= A4/A3
[6] Total Days next year..........1,825,000....=5000*365
[7] Revenue 2010..................24,391,345...=A5*A6
rich
Oops 3 acronyms and 1 abbrv eom
Yes, I'm sure the only OTC has been mentioned before but clearly it could be confused as having a monopoly on the drug. Anyway, no harm done... everyone should be clear on what BSPM has or hasn't have and that this information is supplied by company not a third party.
If not, they can sell their shares on Monday at a profit
Perhaps the 7 reasons for buying BSPM should be explict about this being the only OTC TCM for HEP-B CSP?
Right, that's enough, 4 acronyms in any one sentence is more than enough.
rich
Ultra long is meant to be one of the best investor on fool caps but doesn't know about a reverse takeover? Half the argument was the shell company had done lots of things previously. WTF was that about?
The other half was that the institutions had got a massive discount to the pps but given that this has gone up like a rocked that was hardly a surprise....
I didn't answer his points as it's difficult to make a case while watching the stock go down 22%
Not sure how to interpret altergo but just to say that Scam and ultra have the same viewpoint but are different people.
rich
UltraLongs posting...
http://caps.fool.com/Pitch/GCHT.OB/4391175/oh-my-god-where-to-beginbr-br-.aspx?source=itxsittb0000001
BSPM Selling point: Only SFDA-approved OTC drug available for chronic hepatitis B in China [1]
My understanding is the changes in Chinese health system will allow less centralised health system (can't remember where I read this - if anyone can confirm) - so more sales decisions through pharmacy. So, having the only OTC drug could be a marketing advantage.
[1] http://www.hcinternational.net/pdf/BSPMInvestor%20Presentation.pdf
rich
Quick Valuation by FY 2010....
Net Income 16 Million
Outstanding 6.4 Million
EPS 2.5
So, assuming we get through 2010 and we apply a multiple of 20 times earnings we have pps $50 or 2.9 times higher than todays price of $13.
Anyone disagree?
rich
SBAY: Think someone said NAZ expects some guidance? Perhaps he was asked to supply some? Rather than him wanting to? Given the numbers it looks foolhardy.
rich
Cheers FP, very useful...
Ah didn't know one hadn't been signed - made notes that each had an *intial* order of 50. 50 isn't alot - the wind farm I went to in Scotland had 120+ and they were going to add more... I'm wondering if some of the confidence in numbers is that they expect follow on orders - it would explain their hurry?
Not, sure if they are looking after windfarms or if they put them up for other people.
Our Clients:
Daqing Longjiang Wind Power Co., Ltd
Wuhan Kaidi Electric Engineering Co., Ltd 000939
Kelipu Wind Power Co., Ltd.
rich
Ha, well, as long as it's a reasonable attempt in good faith - that's fine by me. If someone has a better story then let them tell it.
Hi FanPaw,
I don't know of any guidance.
I'm working from the presentation given in the Ibox. They have financial statements for the next few years. It's near the end.
2010
Rev $88 Million
Net Income $22.7 million - I think Geo applies standard US tax rates so perhaps thats more conservative?
After yesterdays announced financing I'm using 59,470,015 shares outstanding. Which I calculate as 52,570,015 for intital merger, 6 Million for follow on + 500,000 for $1,000,000 covertable at $2. This was slightly less than the expected 62 Million I was using from Geo guestimate. So that gives me $0.38 cents - but you could revise that down by applying a stricter tax rate.
What do you make of that PR 3rd Sept that included the intention to deliver the 128 million order within 6 months? It would kinda make the estimates a bit low.
rich
Cheers I knew there would be a good explanation
Can't do http://www.goongood.com/ either.... it's quite easy to block people from outside China,say. But it is strange. I think it's legitimate question to ask management.
Any ideas?
rich
Aggreed, lame. As soon as they start to discuss something they have a responsibility to their readers.
rich
All this information is freely available in the 10-Q's and K's but thank you, again, for bringing this to our notice. There are only a limited number of licenese to collect blood products - CBPO had little choice about who they deal with. As far as I can understand all these court cases came about because of the people they bought the collection stations from; who clearly are a bunch of criminals. That said CBPO has been entrusted to clear up the mess that is blood products - will they do this? Well, I haven't seen some malpractice generated by the operations of the company or by the directors been directly involved in wrong doings. Have you?
rich
SBAY - smart move by management! They are going to uplist. After uplist they can do forward split. Like SKBI did... Just get it up there..
The month is ticking off... in a few weeks time off to NAZ.
rich
Trader: Don't disagree. The guidance I'm working from is from the presentation... Which I've got 88 million in revenue and 37 cents for 2010. So were at around 10 times next years P/E. Has anyone got any better guidance? Well, I say guidance but I haven't seen an EPS guidance.
However, from their Sept PR that's looking an easy ask. No, idea where the truth is but should be fun finding out Clearly, the company has the capacity to do it in 5 months if it wants.
rich
Trader: Hello, I thought I gave the PR but if not here it is...
http://www.gcchinaturbine.com/news/news.aspx?nrnum=279
*If* they intend to fullfill the backlog like they said in the PR then the income looks substancial and way above guidance - I can't see any other way of reading the information.
I know nothing about trading but even I know this suckers going down But I will hold and wait to see what the next CC regarding orders is.
I should say, I only found out about this last night as I was digging around as I couldn't fathom the buying interest - that's how good my DD is
rich
GCHT - I think this was the intersting PR (it has been picked up by others before)
So, they are going to do $128 Million revenue in 6 months.
"Management has determined using current production capacity information based on their latest production runs in their facility in Wuhan, China, that the Company has the capability to produce an average of thirty (30) wind turbines per month. This new production capacity will now allow the Company to fulfil its initial orders of 150 wind turbines, worth in excess of US$ 128 million, in the next five to six months." [1]
In their presentation the 2011 numbers with [2] 210 M net sales was $40 Million net income. So with 128 million revenue were talking about $24 net income in the next 6 months - assuming similar efficiencies. I'm working with 61 million shares (I'm too dumb to work out how many shares but appreciate they PR today would affect this outlook) so that's $0.39 in 5 - 6 months.
So, to me ***** the pump message that's nothing to do with it.
The actual problem is can they keep up the orders? And, anyway, what's the hurry - why don't they string the orders out
rich
[1] http://www.gcchinaturbine.com/news/news.aspx?nrnum=279
[2] http://geoinvestingpics.com/gcht/gchtpp.pdf
Bogus: No objections at all. Any worst case should have a most likely case. I will confirm your numbers later for my own peace of mind.
I wonder how they get so many up and running? Is it a distributor who sets this up with their channel. Hmmm....
rich
SKBI - yup, too illiquid eom
SKBI 2for1 Split@close Nov16th
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Skystar-BioPharmaceutical-iw-1590343230.html?x=0&.v=1
rich
850 M Rural Pop uses 12-14% of total consumption of pharmacutical products [1].
[1] http://www.hcinternational.net/pdf/BSPMInvestor%20Presentation.pdf
That's another way to look at it... there's some serious volume.
It's true that China has a payment per service - so Dr get paid for each drug they prescribe which would lead to over prescription, however, I'm feeling there's some pent up demand there.
rich
BSPM - EST Low ball $ per outlet per day (Repost from Emerging)
Outlets
End March 1320
End Oct 3512
Worse case days open for outlets - so taking the information I'm trying to get the lowest number of combined days the outlets were open. And that "magically" the remaing 2,192 outlets made sales from April the 1st onwards (once again unlikely). Note: The more outlet days I make the lower my final estimate becomes - so conservative.
3 * 30 * 1320 = 118,800 (March, 3 months)
7 * 30 * 3512 = 737,520 (April - End Oct)
-----------------------------
Outlet days 856,320
-----------------------------
Money made for those outletdays = $7.4 Million
So each outlet makes $8.6 a day.
So, with a full year in 2010 with 5,000 outlets running 365 days.
365 * 5000 * 8.64 = $15.7 Million revenue.
Obviously, that ignores their plans to increase outlets to 10,000.
New products should have positive affect.
The changes in rural health initiative may affected sales, one way or another, since end of Sept.
Did I get that all right??
rich
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Biostar-Pharmaceuticals-Inc-prnews-3257545683.html?x=0&.v=1
Hi Ed, It's an unknown - and markets just love unknowns. It's a great "honor" to have a drug on the list but when Global Gains pushed them on this it was clear there was some pricing pressure.
I'm going to listen to some of the upcoming CC's to see if they give a clue.
"so I'm guessing the Chinese government isn't restricting the prices too tightly, although correct me if that's wrong?"
That would be my best guess. They seem to understand businesses have to make money.
They also want more innovation - so drugs which are developed/ unique should get higher margins.
I think the big change is that you no longer have to go through Doctors/hospitals to get all your drugs (read an article put on the CXYN or this board about that)... and I assume that more people can buy through pharmacies... so CXYN share holders have reason to be optomistic about volumes going forward. I wonder if peoples see this the same was as I do?
rich
$33M Revenue Estimate from their updated numbers - which is 83% more than last years.
That said last year Q2 & Q3 were the same - so they could get $46 million but that said I don't know if they shoot low on their estimates? If they were really that much higher then I would wonder why they didn't gun their recent estimate, 22 days after the quarter closed, a little higher?
They do have more branded franchise shops than they had last but many of the shops were still selling their fertilizer last year (see previous posting). The benefit of branding is that the shops start to sell a higher and higher % of YONG - so this is a slow burn benefit YONG will see over the next few years.
So, you might well be right but I won't be upset if revenues were $33 Million - I'm hoping for $35 and anything above is bonus time.
I this a reeasonable scenario might bethe Non cash charges generated by warrants to come into play and reduce the GAAP EPS - this may well panic some investors and there could be a sell off but I hope that more experienced investors would see that as an opportunity.
Ooooh, I'm such a wet blanket!
rich
CNOA - that's a high estimate. If it only gets $0.14 or something it hasn't been a disaster by any means.
While it's absolutely possible to get those numbers there has been precious little feedback coming into their big quarters - but you would expect them to beat last year given strength of Q1 & Q2.
I very much against going into a quarter with an high expectation.
rich
Valuation based on 2010 figures:
Using OS of 61 Million from GEO site.
EST 2010 ncome $22.7 Million (from them)
That gives $0.37 cents a share.
So, on 2010 with forward P/E of 20 we have $7.40 stock.
I like the potential of the stock but we've yet to see a 10-Q. Difficult to sell a stock going up like rocket
Don't know how much cash it has - it could be significant?
rich
Hi Ed, the Chinese are also mulling over their system - The PRC government has a list of essential drugs that they will set the price on. I suspect that the increased volume will compensate for reduced margins but that's a guess.
There are two short campaigns going on against CSKI and AOB.
As you say, it's a good sector, especially rural health and I think significant growth will continue over the next decade.
rich
OT BRK BNSF buy is bet on US coal.
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2009/11/03/buffett-uses-bnsf-to-bet-on-coal/
Intersting he's come to same conclusion as Chinese coal investors. Also interesting is all the comments deride Buffett for his choice - were lucky that so many great investors spend their time writing comments on blogs, sigh.
rich
CNOA: "They Dalian Huimang 60% interest paying 10.6 mil $ in nov 08. DH made only 2.4 mil dollar in yr 2007."
In 2007 DH did $40 million in revenue and net income of $2.7.
Which was four fold increase over 2006. So to put it mildly it's fast growing.
If you want to pay for a fast growing company you have to pay over the odds..
2.4 million net income... at a 10 multiple is 24 million - so 60% owner ship would be $14 million. They paid $11 million, cheap. So, looks like a good price to me anyway, ignoring the growth.
It dove tails nicely by being in NE and trading different things than CNOA was trading....
"They do not mention Ankang trading activities in Q report this yr."
I would have to double check notes... but I'm fairly confident they put all the trading activities under the same division. So, you won't see any breakout. That makes sense given the only difference was what they sold - rice vs beans say.
What's dishonest about that?
rich
Trader@LPIH Lets just say that emotions run high on this stock - I don't want to get involved with emotional argments as they can often get in the way of making money.
rich
Argyll @ LPIH
Sorry, don't have private email.
I was making no comment but interested about claims people were making.
My comment on the financing is that Wall Street took a bigger bite out of LPIH than it should have. But they won't be the first or the last that has that happened to them.
The company is otherwise undervalued. I think the general comment on the board would be they like the numbers but dislike the management.
I'm holding my shares unless I find a company offering better upside.
rich