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Thanks for the correction. Not pink sheets. Understood.
But TMPS' share price is more volatile than my pink-sheets investment, PIOE.
Thanks, Loser and Greenwillow
I have two pink sheet investments, TMPS and PIOE. Both look on the verge of becoming very profitable after being in start-up mode for awhile.
It appears they tweeted at about 1:45PM today. But only 74 followers? Well, they just started on Twitter on September 19.
Do you think the account is legit?
I'll mention one potential price-mover again.
If you Google "site:rcpadvisors.com P10", which looks in RCP Advisors' website for any mention of P10, you will get no hits.
If RCP decides someday to announce there that they are owned by P10 Industries (in case anyone would like shares in their newly public company), well, that might just move the price upward.
Who will move the share price?
The 49% who came from RCP know very well what their company is worth. Obviously, the 3rd quarter report didn't cause them to make any buys or sells.
The financiers in the 51% majority know the company's position just as well.
So what's left are retail shareholders who create some daily zig-zags in the price. They didn't even make a ripple when the report came out.
As is, PIOE looks very safe when so many are staying in and the price is a very firm 70 cents, more or less.
So who will move the share price?
On the pink sheets this is difficult, but new investors can move us.
Unexpected good news should also do the trick. But most of the shareholders already know what is in store into the beginning of 2018.
However, I am hopeful that not much of the sale of intellectual property is already priced in, so this is hopefully not leading up to a disappointment. I will stick with the idea that there is little downside risk.
I am looking forward to seeing new investors who want to bid the price up as the new PIOE becomes better known.
That is a good question.
Can RCP distribute earnings to PIOE as revenue and not be consolidated into the PIOE balance sheet/ income statement insofar as their gross revenues and expenses?
I sure don't know. But I think that RCP and PIOE would have to be the same taxable entity or RCP would have to pay income taxes before they passed their earnings to the parent company PIOE.
So for that reason I suspect that the PIOE balance sheet/ income statement would contain all assets of RCP and not just an investment into RCP.
But I don't know: Can one taxable entity be both public and private?
I like your kind of disappointments!
True, it would be disappointing not to see how RCP looks on a balance sheet, now that we shareholders are part owners. But this kind of disappointment is unlikely to damage the share price, as would, say, an earnings shortfall.
Whatever the management discloses in addition to their early October acquisition news is a plus. If they need to wait until the year-end report or even May (for the January acquisition of RCP3), these delays are not "bad news" kinds of disappointments.
(Claiming to have a huge deal to sell products to a misidentified Chinese company is a disappointment.)
PIOE is a feel-good story through and through. Even so, as you are saying, the more PIOE wants to explain about itself, the better...
It's very, very hard to imagine disappointing news at this stage of PIOE's acquisition of RCP. Don't worry.
I'm still holding to a forecast of minimal data in the operating results of the financial report due out sometime very soon. If the acquisition's effective date was in October, there will be nothing to show for it on a September 30 balance sheet. If nothing on the balance sheet, then nothing on the income statement as well.
I saw something-- I forget what-- that seemed to indicate that the closing could have been in very late September. If true-- and I am doubtful that it is-- the balance sheet could be quite interesting. Still, the income statement may only contain just a few days worth of revenue and expenses.
Not being knowledgeable about such transactions, I don't know if merging the taxable entities into one is needed for the NOLs to have effect or what such a move would cause in reporting data prior to the acquisition.
Furthermore, the management may choose to reveal whatever financial data that they would want to about RCP.
So there is at least a good potential for a positive surprise at the next report date. I agree with Chemist's expectation that share price would rise until the report. And there is a good chance of a letdown after that (sell on the news) but maybe things that turn out better than expected will give the price a huge boost!
6 bits won't be enough to buy PIOE shares pretty soon. Say, did you take a gander at today's trading? Well, get a load of that! In my book the supply of shares under six bits may be running out today. No foolin! Soon be pennies from heaven, natch! Moolah aplenty.
I would assume the Company will go forward as a publicly traded corporation for a long time.
I presume RCP's goals were to be publicly traded so as to maximize the value of each individual's ownership, to ease the sale of any partner's portion of ownership someday in the future and to raise capital.
Their capital came at least in the form of NOLs and intellectual property, if not other new funding.
I would totally discount the idea that PIOE is a separate entity in the sense that it is something other than RCP Advisors, or would go in a different direction. The PIOE/RCP relationship is merely a parent/subsidiary structure that achieved RCP Advisors' goals. As I said in an earlier post, it would be sensible to rename PIOE "RCP Holdings" or something similar. The fact that for now it owns some technology assets doesn't really change the main focus of their business.
Agreed. Today it looks like someone's saying, "You want to get out now at 70 cents? Sell as much as you want and I can make that happen!"
At some point RCP clients may get word of the opportunity to own shares of PIOE. I think that could be very good for the PIOE share price.
RCP's website appears silent on the acquisition by PIOE. They are still saying, "RCP is manager-owned and its principals have made substantial personal investments in both the firm and its investment funds." While true, they are well on the road of not entirely "manager-owned".
There does not seem to be a FAQ question on the website of "Can I invest in RCP Advisors? (YES)". But technically one can invest in the soon-to-be owner of it all, PIOE, which technically is their soon-to-be holding company.
Somehow I don't see company news as driver of the share price for quite a few months. The story is out there and anyone can read about it. The January acquisition is a given, and I see almost no chance of that unraveling considering who is now the CEO.
To me, the big price-mover would be someone making a decision to invest into PIOE bigly.
Now, if PIOE would begin to self-promote a little, that kind of news would be welcome and maybe effective in raising the price. Like Chemist said, an announced intention to uplist would be very welcome. Or if they would reveal their financial data and strength before they would have to do so in their quarterly reports, it would be a good thing.
Did I just see 30,000 shares at 70 cents? Good way to finish the morning!
Their monetization plan certainly points to valuable intellectual property holdings, so I hope they do better than what the market is now anticipating, whatever that may be.
Very good point. I am adding #3a to my previous post.
#3 The company is not widely known. #3a. Some who know about it are unable by rules not to invest in it at this time.
So what would you pay now if you believe that these restrictions will be released someday soon on the many potential new buyers? Depends how big and how soon. Maybe this better defines the gap, too.
The available numbers may take awhile, so this could also hold us back temporarily. I am ONLY talking about balance sheet and income statement, etc. numbers, and not other numbers that management may choose to reveal:
November? 3rd Quarter report for activity ending September 30-- no acquisition activity
April? 4th Quarter report for activity ending December 31-- acquisition of RCP #2, some effect on balance sheet? don't know how much...
May? 1st Quarter report for activity ending March 31-- acquisition of RCP #3, finally we see where the real action is when all is said and done
So short term (after the 3rd quarter report release) my negative side is bearish (as usual for my negative side). I'd like a nice run-up before then. I would certainly consider re-entering later on, too. So my positive side says to just stay in so I wouldn't miss a price spike going forward.
Explaining the gap betweeen $5 and 70 cents
The thinking of this board seems to gravitate toward a $5 per share price and the action of the larger traders who actually set the price is currently around 70 cents. Why the gap?
The big traders know everything that is on this board, and they probably know a lot more than that. So what accounts for the discount from $5 that is said here to be a reasonable future price?
Expected earnings is not the answer because the big traders know these same parameters that are recently mentioned here.
Here are some reasons that I can think of that the price is discounted:
1. the expected earnings are not realized and reported, so they are not very precise (including growth expectations for at least several quarters ahead)
2. the deal may fail to settle in January (I think that is very unlikely since the CEO of PIOE is from the leadership of RCP 3.)
3. the stock is undervalued because it is practically unknown
That's all that I can think of.
I believe that #1 and #2 are very small factors of a difference of opinion, so we are hanging our hats on #3 as accounting for the big gap.
I don't put much weight into that 70 cents is appropriate "now" but $5 would be right soon after January. What would you pay for something expected strongly to be worth $5 in January? I'd pay $4 at least. If something were weakly expected to be $5 then, maybe 70 cents would be ok.
The rest of the difference would be errors in our estimation of value.
I am hoping that #3 is very large and our errors turn out very large, too, and the price hits $10!
By the way, I have personally also ruled out that any RCP entity will remain outside of PIOE. Even though the press release was not totally precise, I think it could be interpreted as meaning all RCP entities. It makes no sense to me that there would be other competing groups allowed to continue.
I would not be surprised to see "P10 Industries" renamed to "RCP Holdings" or some such change, considering where power now lies in the management.
Good point. There are any number of new positives possible. These include a positive conference call, new disclosures such as on the intellectual property front and maybe breaking $1, relisting and being open to more institutions.
Are any analysts following PIOE now that may be involved in a conference call?
Report just in from my negative side:
Many stocks experience a rise when their report dates draw near, and we may be entering a period like that now with PIOE. It will be their first report in their new business, even though containing no numbers about that if the acquisition was after September 30 as reported.
That part is good.
But when the report comes out, if it says nothing new, get ready to "ride a wave" down into a trough. The report may be just a recap of what we already know, since the dollars being reported closed on September 30 and management already did a press release on the acquisition. Companies don't like to speculate on future events, so we may not learn much. However, a wild card-- we don't know what the new CEO's style of reporting might be.
My negative side is trying to convince me to get out completely around October 20 at a nice high price. I am not listening but it is getting my attention.
It's a boneless chicken, surrounded by roast duck meat, encased in a turkey.
We found the floor. Search for ceiling whereabouts to begin soon.
Hope you're right that dilution isn't an issue.
Perhaps PIOE will issue all 110,000,000 authorized shares so the remainder goes to RCP 3. But why wait until next tax year (January)?
You say that RCP 2 and RCP 3 combined would then hold about 60% of PIOE. That is greater than 49.5%, but somehow wouldn't trigger "change in ownership" or they would blow up their NOLs? Maybe that is related to being in the new tax year. Maybe NOLs would be only partially impacted. I am concerned that these rules governing NOLs are complex.
I am sure that PIOE, 210 and the RCPs have this all figured out. But I'm not sure they have ruled out authorizing more shares later, either because: 1) the RCP portion needs to go below 50% when combined (it is now at 60%) or 2) the new tax year creates a new starting point and RCP could take an even larger portion of the company without constituting a "change in ownership" (since on 12/31/17 the ownership will be as it is now, not how it was on 12/31/16).
I don't know the rules so I can't rule out more authorized shares and more dilution. However, your point is a VERY good one in that 110,000,000 is not likely a random number, so that is most likely to represent the maximum near-term dilution anticipated. Good work!
I assumed Mr. Ascolese retained some investment into all of this work he did, but I did see that he is no longer on the Board and would no longer be chief. So that leaves us and 210 Capital as the oldtimers that would like to see some gain?
The significance of the second deal being January
Does the company want to close out the year with 49.5% as the limit for RCP? It looks like it might. Why?
I don't know.
Could it be that once a new year starts the company is then free to authorize more shares (and dilute further) without endangering NOLs tax benefits? Maybe an expert knows.
But I have no idea how to value the company if an unknown-sized dilution will hit in January.
I am not pessimistic at all, and believe shares will increase in price because we are dealing with a highly successful company. I just don't know how big of a piece that Mr. Ascolese and his affiliated investors will have reserved for themselves (and for us, his pre-reorganization shareholders).
At $0.65 per share, is market cap $58-million?
I get 89,234,816 shares outstanding times $0.65 per share equals $58,002,630.
45,063,583 shares were outstanding and RCP is to have 44,171,233 new shares. That is 49.5% of the 89,234,816 shares outstanding total.
A 50-cent share price before the dilution would translate to 25 cents now. From that level we have reached about 93 cents and now settled back into the middle 60s.
It will be interesting to compare market cap to shareholders' equity when that becomes available.
I am expecting the usual on-time quarterly report in late October or early November from PIOE.
I assume that all acquisition transactions occurred after the September 30 close of business, so the financial statements (the numbers) may be silent on that.
But there certainly would be an expectation for the report to have management's explanation of the highlights of the positive events subsequent to the quarter end.
I am expecting that there might be a delay in the following quarterly report (closing December 31) if the accounting issues of the acquisition are complicated, but who is to say what their reporting schedule might be from now on? I'm only talking about a few weeks' delay from the old pattern if any at all.
(I'll buy at 63 cents today, if I can get it.)
It must take a lot to excite you.
Ok, which will happen first: Will we retest the $0.9273 morning high or will the market close at 4:00?
I say the retest, because I like excitement and because ACPW/PIOE is finally in the black for me (barely).
Can't argue with breaking $1. Dried-up share volume here in the 70s says price needs to retest the highs.
Ground floor 71.5 cents. Going up!
Maybe we have just found the ground floor and are heading back up.
Today we punched up through Friday's 89 cents for awhile. So we took out the old top and are readying for a retest.
There could be a ride to the bargain basement under 70 cents, but I doubt it.
The RCP acquisition involved a big dilution, but it has to be better than the 50-cent stock prices soon after clearing bankruptcy, doesn't it? A 20-cent improvement looks like way too little.
Agreed. I think computers write most of these kinds of articles based on headlines that they sniff out. But I don't care what they say, just that they say SOMETHING.
A squeeze in available shares might cause breakout to heights unseen. Other than that, I think what you say is certainly a good take on where the price might go.
An institution might have to believe the price is heading to $5 in order to get in with some size at around $3 (to attract enough sellers).
After lunch we will see if this will happen today!
We did it once, but is that all?
Probably so, I am guessing.
RCP got what they wanted: NOLs and a public company.
If that's all that they wanted, acquisitions are over and their specialist can work on selling the intellectual property.
BUT, on the other hand, a bigger fish could swim by and want to acquire RCP and all its new NOLs. Of course, PIOE would be the "acquirer" because of the NOLs. (And they should change the ticker to "PIG" because it is a NOL Pig and will prove that PIGs can fly.)
I wonder if $1 creates resistance at all.
I believe some institutions won't invest in anything below $1, but would be open to buying at above $1.
I also am fairly sure that pink sheets create a resistance.
If we cross $1, we may see if this PIOE can fly!
Valuation of shares is sorting out, but mysteries? There are not many of those left. Valuation is the big one.
As I see it, PIOE acquired RCP but only because of the NOLs and to bring RCP in as an exchange-listed company. Going forward, this company seems to be all about RCP. Major PIOE owner Mr. Ascolese has left the board, but still now has minority shares. Isn't RCP the largest minority shareholder and isn't there no majority holder now?
If so, for Ascolese to leave, he kept shares, basically relinquished the intellectual properties to the new Board and presumably left employment of any kind there. Is that how we are to see this? This is what PIOE "paid" for the company, but the RCP people now run it, I suppose.
There were several entities inside RCP, and PIOE's press release only mentioned LLC 2 and LLC 3 specifically, but referred collectively to them as "RCP Advisors". From what BioHunter posted recently, it seems that whatever was left (the original RCP Advisors LLC and maybe a few inactive LLCs) could be immaterial. I am guessing that what PIOE acquired was the whole of whatever was doing business as RCP Advisors in any form.
So, as I see it, RCP is dominant in the new arrangement inside PIOE. The old ACPW crew (including us) is currently happy with their minority positions. And now, as I said, what will valuation of the share be as the market sorts this out and tries to forecast earnings?
(If I were the Board of Directors, I think I would like about a 1 for 20 reverse split and go for qualifying for listing on NASDAQ.)
Here is a link that shows some affiliates (affiliates) other than #2 and #3. I don't know if these others are within PIOE's acquisition or not, since PIOE names only #2 and #3.
In the press release, P10 Industries, Inc. is called "P10". RCP Advisors 2 and 3 are collectively called "RCP Advisors". But I don't know that this refers to the original company (RCP Advisors LLC) or any other affiliates or pieces it may have.
89 cents didn't hold very long- retest soon?
Has anyone sorted out RCP Advisors 2, LLC and RCP Advisors 3, LLC which are involved in the announced transactions vs. RCP Advisors, LLC which doesn't seem to be? "RCP Advisors" as written in the press release is defined to mean RCP Advisors 2, LLC and RCP Advisors 3, LLC, but not what I guess is the original firm, RCP Advisors, LLC. Is this significant? Is RCP Advisors, LLC not in the acquistion?
No trades for about 8 minutes. Order imbalance? Don't know. If so, more buyers must still want in.
No kidding. I've kept ACPW/PIOE so long that I still need to hit 73 cents to break even. It is still in the red for me, but with a 69.9-cent high so far, I was just 3 cents away from the black.
Double from yesterday's close. My first 100% rise in a day.