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It may soar on otc up to 70% of book value/up listing price, which ever it might be. Just IMHO.
Only thing is it may take some time. ????
I won't get excited till we get north of$10. Just waiting for it. Thanks.
jtimothyhoward
MAY 22, 2016 AT 4:37 AM
I did read Gretchen Morgenson’s New York Times article, and also have reviewed the latest set of documents released by Sweeney.
I’ll start with the obvious: these new documents remove any doubt about several key points. First, contrary to law Treasury has been running the Fannie and Freddie conservatorships from the beginning, with FHFA meekly doing whatever Treasury tells it to. Second, Treasury clearly knew that Fannie was, to use Dave Benson’s term, about to enter a “Golden Age” of profitability when it imposed the net worth sweep on it and Freddie. Third, the language in Jim Parrott’s contemporaneous emails–such as “we’re not reducing their dividend but including in it every dime these guys make going forward and ensuring that they can’t recapitalize”– fatally undermines the government’s factual arguments in the net worth sweep cases, leaving it with the sole legal argument that HERA permits the government to do anything to Fannie and Freddie that it chooses to. While this argument was accepted by Judge Lamberth–based on facts put forth by the government that now have been shown to be brazenly inaccurate–it almost certainly will be reversed or remanded on appeal.
Beyond these obvious points, however, the documents for me have further implications. Most importantly, they are totally consistent with the thesis I outlined in the post to which these comments are attached, claiming that both the conservatorships themselves and the net worth sweep were part of a long series of actions by members of the Financial Establishment to remove Fannie and Freddie as the centerpieces of American mortgage finance and replace them with mechanisms that were more profitable for the large banks and Wall Street firms that have historically opposed Fannie and Freddie. I found it particularly interesting that while working for the White House, Parrot would have viewed the blatantly partisan AEI officials Peter Wallison and Ed Pinto as “fellow travelers,” and apprised them in advance of Treasury’s plan to prevent Fannie and Freddie from recapitalizing.
And this leads to an additional point I’ll make briefly. From the time I first learned of the government’s request to cover all documents produced in discovery with a protective order–and to keep many other documents from being produced at all– my reaction was that the government’s insistence on secrecy stemmed from the fact that the plan to take over and then eliminate a healthy Fannie and Freddie was embraced by such a broad group of individuals, inside and outside the government– who when talking among themselves made no effort to “cover their tracks”– that there had to be a large number of incriminating documents that would be produced during the course of the discovery permitted by Judge Sweeney. Just the very few such documents made public so far suggest that my intuition on this may be right, and if it is there should be many more “smoking gun” documents released in the future. Judge Sweeney now seems to understand that counsel for the defense has not been truthful in many of the representations it has made before her in court, as evidenced by the stern language in an order she issued this past Friday, giving the defense a week to justify its invocation of deliberative process privilege on some 12,000 documents it continues to withhold from plaintiffs’s counsel.
More “bad documents” coming out will be positive not just for plaintiffs in the legal cases but also for those who are advocating for the average homebuyer in the mortgage reform debate. To date, the Financial Establishment has been in control of the reform dialogue, successfully equating in the public mind the concept of “reform” with the elimination of Fannie and Freddie. The more apparent it becomes that the Financial Establishment has been acting in its own financial interest– and NOT in the interest of homebuyers– and that it has been untruthful about both its actions and its motives, the more likely it will be that their plans for remaking the mortgage system to their liking will not come to fruition. I, for one, hope that’s the case.
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https://howardonmortgagefinance.com/2016/05/02/getting-from-here-to-there/#comments
" I think Treasury’s having given itself 79.9% of the companies in exchange for doing nothing (other than using them as instruments of public policy) is outrageous and can be successfully challenged in court."
From the Ex.CFO Tim Howard comment:
http://howardonmortgagefinance.com/2016/02/23/the-takeover-and-the-terms/#comments
jtimothyhoward
FEBRUARY 24, 2016 AT 1:30 PM
I agree with you on punitive damages. There would be no punitive damages.
AIG ruling is precedent IMHO.
I think it's a very good case study or research topic for law, accounting, politics and business students. Also for mortgage professionals and may be for history students also. Just IMHO. Thanks.
Without punitive damages, just with no warrants means 5 times to that Ackman's valuation. Just IMHO.
From www.timhoward717.com
pultak on May 24, 2016 at 10:44 pm
this is what freddie mac assets look like like.
year 2003 to 2009 the assets range from 800 billion to 850 billion and the average shareholder equity range 25 to 31 billion or 38 to 47 dollars per share and PE of God knows what. Note that from 2009 to 2010 assets jump from 841 billion to 2.261 trillion, IMO the 40 billion per month funneled toxic mortgages from TBTF kicks in. so their positive cash turned to neg and then some. presently freddie mac turn in to profitabilty but still in limbo tru NWS. think about it freddie now have 2 trillion of assets and making money imagine if the int. rates go up profit will go up as well the shareholder equity will blow the old 2007 high pps.
i remember potus interview by zillow ceo, he wants to bring the two giants to where they were, like to small 800 billion assets, but you have to ask Xtropian, did we win our market share fairly? or not? they want the 1.5 trillion back, the banks i mean.
ugh conspiracy theory again.
I think Bill Ackman, Dick Bove and others estimated the FannieMae pps about a year ago, when these documents are not revealed, thinking the warrants are valid. Now I really doubt whether those people would agree for the warrants to be valid. I really wanted to see their pps estimation now.
I think Bill Ackman, Dick Bove and others estimated the FannieMae pps about a year ago, when these documents are not revealed, thinking the warrants are valid. Now I really doubt whether those people would agree for the warrants to be valid. I really wanted to see their pps estimation now.
As per Bill Ackman the price range is $23 to $47 with warrants. If no warrants 5 times to that price. So $115 to $235.
In the below news link it's said: "Fannie's stock is trading just above $4 per share. Ackman sees the stock price ranging from $23 to $47 in the future."
http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-ackman-fannie-mae-presentation-2014-5
http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/ebc3f688-d51b-11e3-adec-00144feabdc0.pdf
$150 is reality if no warrants. Just IMHO.
Obi's views are very well respected on the board.
In S&L some got nothing while others got a lot ??? Is it similar to commons and preferred ??? Are Commons gets nothing while preferds get full face value ??? Any comments from experts please ???
Any particular reason for this having after market hours.
IU Members,
Today, David Thompson, legal counsel representing Fairholme Funds in Judge Sweeney's court, will host a call to discuss litigation developments including the recently unsealed documents. Mr. Thompson has graciously opened the call to our members. We hope you'll join us as we listen in; dial-in details below.
In addition, we're pleased to announce that Fannie Freddie Secrets now has the complete list of 53 documents that make up the latest collection of documents unsealed. Note, there are new documents posted that have not yet been covered in outlets such as the New York Times. Head to FannieFreddieSecrets.org to view the full compilation of documents.
Investors Unite
****
Date: May 24, 2016
Time: 4:30 PM ET
Host: David Thompson, Managing Partner at Cooper & Kirk
Subject: Recent developments in GSE litigation, including newly unsealed documents.
Participant Toll Free Dial-In Number: (866) 547-1509
Participant International Dial-In Number: (920) 663-6208
Conference ID: 19870658
I think in simple calculation, as per Ackman the pps is $25 to $40 with warrants. So with out warrants 5 times to that price. So $125 to $200 with no warrants. This pps is with out punitive charges. In my opinion, we may not get paid any punitive charges. This is just IMHO. Thanks.
In my opinion $150 is max price with out warrants.
In my opinion $150 is a realistic price provided warrants are invalid. $70 is the price when the market share is less. Find out FannieMae market share before 2008 and now. You will have the answer. This is just IMHO. Thanks.
It's no more a $1 stock.
By May 27th, it will be 6 weeks completed since April 15th, when the arguments in the appeal court were held. So we may hear something around that time. Just my guess. Thanks.
I think they won't take a position in this with out this being up listed. This just IMHO. Thanks.
Finally we entered the land of $2. Good.
80 already got traded.
AIG ruling is precedent for warrants.
*ware = warrants
Warrants are worthless. If at all they use some portion of the warrants, then that money from ware would go into the companies as a equity cushion.
What if the appeal court rules ??
Next few months may be interesting.
Warrants are worthless.
From www.timhoward717.com comments:
Dave on May 21, 2016 at 8:18 am
Haven’t seen this one from 2009 yet. It is worth every second of the 5 mins. Everyone including Hank himself has to know he should be in jail by now. Worth sharing again even if I am the only one that hasn’t already seen it.
http://dailybail.com/home/the-hammer-gets-hit-by-a-tree.html
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Bruce Berkowitz (Trades, Portfolio):
So, we are advancing the ball down the field strategically and at an increasingly accelerated pace. It doesn’t look that way when you take a look at the price of our preferred stock, yet we are making substantial progress.
http://www.gurufocus.com/news/415381/bruce-berkowitz-comments-on-fannie-mae
Hi Obi, can you please provide your views on the recent updates about FNMA & FMCC.
That's also good.
Can this open on Monday at $5 or more ??
james mccluskey commented 3 hours ago:
John,
I'm pretty sure that Jim Parrott is not feeling very good about his emails being made public. But he really shouldn't worry because John Carney says it is all legit. Really--it is all legit. Parrott says privately that GSEs are about to enter "a golden age of profitabilty" but publicly that they are at risk of entering a death spiral. It is now as clear as day why Treasury and FHFA have fought so hard to keep all these documents private?
You are suffering from a severe case of confirmation bias. Regardless of what information is made public, you interpret it as being good for Treasury and FHFA. Not sure who you think you are fooling.
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/05/20/behind-the-veil-of-the-governments-plan-to-wind-down-fannie-and-freddie/
Bruce Berkowitz – De-Designation of Additional GSE Documents
By VW Staff on May 20, 2016 5:52 pm in Business
FacebookTwitter
From Bruce Berkowitz
Fifty-three additional documents obtained through legal discovery in Fairholme Funds, Inc., et al. v. United States have been unsealed and made available to the public this week. In conjunction with the seven documents unsealed last month, the newly released information is further evidence of Fairholme’s contention that the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the United States Treasury violated the law when they decided to expropriate all of the capital from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Among other things, these documents expose that the defendants’ decision to seize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and operate them for the exclusive benefit of the government was premeditated and wrongful.
smauney01 commented on www.timhoward717.com on May 20, 2016 at 4:28 pm
From:
Sent:
To:
Subject:
Thanks Jim
—– Original Message —–
Bowler, Timothy
Saturday, August 18, 2012 8:09 AM
james_m_parrott@who.eop.gov
Re: Great job
From: Parrott, Jim [mailto:James M Parrott@who.eop.gov]
Sent: Saturday, August 18, 2012 08:06 AM
To: Miller, Mary; Lecompte, Jenni; Stegman, Michael; Bowler, Timothy; Anderson, Matthew; Weideman, Christian;
Moore, Megan; Chepenik, Adam; Dash, Eric
Subject: Great job
Team Tsy,
You guys did a remarkable job on the PSPAs this week. You delivered on a policy change of enormous importance that ‘s actually being recognized as such by the outside world (or the reasonable parts anyway), and as a credit to the Secretary
and the President. It was a very high risk exercise, which could have gone sideways on us any number of ways, but it didn’t- great great work.
UST00503985
——————————————————————————————-
This team thought they were being sneaky fiscal conservatives; little did they know they were being played by the White House – to use these unlimited funds to offset the cost of Obamacare.
Nowhere in the documents does the words “Court, Courts, Judge, Judges, legal or litigation” come up. This group thought they only had to worry about stupid politicians. SUPRISE!
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/2839971/Fannie-Mae-and-Freddie-Mac-Unsealed.pdf
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From www.timhoward717.com