the permit is relatively inconsequential in the whole scheme of things. I think the reason why people are focused on it is because JB brought it up as a milestone in his presentation at the AGM. f not for that, I don't think we would be talking about it.

him tying that salary to the permit is not addressing what he is trying to achieve with that. it should be tied to production. Although he has to get his plant up and running well to get the permit... there still may be unaddressed production issues...

where they intend to fit in the Supply Chain is not a detail.

refining vs blending is a matter of basic strategy.

seems to me that selling to refineries is much simpler. What if the next delay was that the blending site was not up and running?

Question will be: why don't you just sell to refineries instead and make money?

That is similar to the abandonment of the tape business... same tactic of creating expectation and then changing his mind.

I would rather he just focus on doing something well... I would believe that if he has somehow realized that he cannot sell to refineries that he may be keeping that to himself... the business of seeking greater margins just does not wash with me. 10% more on a huge margin is insignificant.

If this blending site causes a day of delay in making money via selling to refineries, jB is not for real.

well the facts are that this stock has gone from 7.00 to .70. It is not impossible for it to go all the way down to sub-penny or to do a Reverse Split.

My personal motivation is to discuss stock price movements so investors do not lose money. Note that as the price gets lower, the percentage loss gets more and more. Don't kid yourself that there is some magical "bottom" that will support this stock price. If he had the tape business up and running I would say there would be one. But unless JB is successful with P2O, and fairly quickly... it will continue to fall.. and this board will have no great influence on that.

and this is not to say that the whole thing is a scam either. I personally don't believe that JB wants to fail either or has ulterior motives.

and I don't want to see JBI fail.

actually you are correct. i usually do high tech, and it is frustrating when a company says "we signed this fantastic deal" but cannot reveal the client.... it is hard to valuate the impact.

no. every time they modify the process or plant... every process change has to get approved. it is not a question of ownership.

"apples and oranges comparison"? not really.

I am just using common sense here. I worked on an 8M refinery expansion job, the point of which was to remove sulphur. And you are right about refining. It is a highly developed competitive industry.

Now, I also know that the quality of the crude is important as well. I know that crude oil from the US fields back in the 70s was highly valued and easy to refine. Also produced great high-octane fuel (Sunoco Gold?) that used to power all those muscle cars back in the 70s.

I have heard that Iraqi crude is crap... and that modern crude is not nearly as "sweet crude" from Texas. I think that means low sulphur content..

so the quality of the crude is critical...

which begs the question.. how can we know that this pyrolysis oil can be sold so easily to refineries for the kind of margins that JB is claiming?

ok... let's see what happens... when do you think,,, the fall? so it is an end-of-october buy January effect rebounder?

well, I don't know for 100% certain... maybe you are right. But, let's get real, if you are talking about that EPA registration, they definitely would have to get something like that. that would not come with the building itself.

nice thought, but when the numbers you have been given by JBI are so outlandish that no reasonable percentage will really matter. In estimating on a mature technology it is common for the initial estimate to double by the time a project comes to fruition. So we are talking 100% or $20/barrel... well even that is low in this case I think. This is an immature, unproven technology. We can see by JBIs progress he is figuring it out on the fly.

This is similar to picking growth stocks, where you are using revenue growth as a parameter in your screener. If you put in 10% over 3 years or something, about 50% of what comes out will be crap. Lots will be gems, but when companies are in such an early stage of development, that 10% growth rate can just reflect normal company development as a startup, it may not be meaningful sustainable growth.

Perfect example, that PR about 52% growth in Javaco sales... meaningless as they are such a total startup. I believe no sales figures were given, only the percentage.

Good luck with it though.

why would people invest in something that has not been done before, without all of the facts of what they are going to do? boggles my mind. Why take the risk on JBI? there are lots of established companies to invest in that at least have a proven track record and history?

If I were an investor in JBI I would at least have a very clear understanding of the economics of what they are doing and alot better grip on profitability.

well you are right, but don't you think that if it could be done profitably then it would be done period? and the larger the company the larger the plant could be. It goes without saying that in most things larger plants are more efficient. Bigger is better... so by this logic the energy companies should be burning all the plastic there is and cleaning up every landfill everywhere..

and i don't want to be the first one to invest in anything... first ones pay the price..

I will believe it when I see it... that is why i am a naysayer.. If you are not comfortable, don't invest either..

speaking of efficiency. i worked on a refinery job in sarnia, Ontario. I was told that the piping construction had to be accurate to within 2% tolerance for the plant to be profitable. Question: if tolerances are that tight and profitability is that sensitive, how can jB's claims be true? I would think that what goes into the refinery would have to be pretty carefully specced as well.

does not matter. has to be for the business operating at the site. like i said... they would have good data handy, it should not be a problem.

whatever permits exist for that building will not help JBI. What they would have is a record of data that would assist in getting required permits yes, but since the building has changed hands, the permits would have to be re-applied for.

I think it is a rental actually.. well that is just shady. Don't like it. Not sure what would happen there... we could debate that for weeks.

It would probably mean that the output from the blending plant could not be sold.. lol..

oh no here we go..

well it boils down to that... the fuel costs $10/barrel and he can sell it for WTI - 3.

so all the large oil companies have bypassed this idea. large energy companies, and no one else has been successful, yet JBI can do that.. right.

so he is selling the blending output to refineries? I did not think that was the case. I would not think it made any difference what the exact composition of the output was.. after all it all gets refined..

Please enlighten as to the basic point of the blending facility, after all z did not even know.

This post is misleading. To imply that there is no question that JBI will be profitable is to ignore reality.

I don't care that it "has been quoted as" (where btw?) 80-95% of the cost being the cost of the feedstock.

I have been in industry on such projects and i know that it is about 5-10% of the cost if that. I can bet where that came from, probably the usual source... and on FB no less. Even if it were free, that is but one factor to consider.

The list of cost items would look something like this:

Operating Costs:
operators
support staff
sales staff
G&A
purchasing
cost of producing catalyst
Overhead (likely based on square footage, which based on the photos, sucks right now).
Preventive and other maintenance
Oil and other fluids

Capital Costs
Fabrication
equipment
Project Management
Construction
Raw Materials
Procurement
Commissioning/Startup (what they are doing now)
Engineering the plant

We have no idea whether or not it will be profitable.

If you can't do the above analysis, you can't assume anything.

BTW, just looking at it it is a 1M - 2M plant. Operating costs i have no idea... but all of the infrastructure and office support has to be factored in.

Profitability is not a no-brainer.

why would they bother blending it then? this is just basic. we don't even have an understanding of the Supply Chain, let alone any comprehension of profitability.

"I think"?

so I would assume that JBI is trying to make money doing 2 things; selling their pyrolysis fuel to refineries, and selling blended fuel direct to distribution points. Am I right?

If they want to sell direct, I would assume that this standard that JJ is talking about would apply. And I believe that the composition of it would have to be registered with the EPA. It just can't be sold with no regulation. The Islechem report would be intended to indicate that it COULD be sold, but they would still have to get that registration.

People seem to talk about the blending station as just a further development of the product. I think it is a completely different channel for their products. Basically it skips the refining step.

As far as selling to a refinery goes, I would think that there would be no standard such as is referenced by JJ and that EPA registration would not apply, but that there are other reasons why selling to a refinery may not be possible. Similar issues (the composition of the input), i would have to talk to a purchasing person in a refinery to understand it.

anyway i am just trying to understand. Any input welcome.

how? i think the gunpowder got wet...

early august = "test run"?

My basic problem with indicators is that they are rarely predictive. For me they are confirmation of a buying decision or help with timing. You have got to be liquid to do lots of trading anyway. usually the stock price change is coindental or even prior to the indication.

In the case of jBII, and low-volume OTC stocks in general, I find the Money Flow Indicator to be predictive, but in this case only on the downslope. If you look at the following chart, the MFI has accurately predicted the sell off that is currently continuing. Oddly, it did not really predict the upswing, instead being merely coincidental.

If you look at this, there was no difference in the PPS between December and October, which to me makes the price rise in December - January quite suspicious... the MFI had little predictive value at the start of December.

yeah that is true. my frame of reference for stocks is not revenue, but PROFIT. I am not being condescending, I just mean that I believe that until a stock gets close to breaking even I just don't have any interest. When they start to make the changes (coming out of a recession...) that they need to make to be successful one would think that investors would look ahead to profitability and buy, but those changes (layoffs, CEO changes, etc) are simply seen as disruptive and the stock falls further... toime to buy is at the bottom of that stuff.

As for JBII, if they can come right out of the starting blocks profitable that will be a first. Disregarding JB's grandiose projections... I will believe it when I see it. Pak-It alone won't do it.

is that ever true in charting... in trading in general. most people probably spend so much time kicking themselves over their trading of JBII or any other stock. Simple facts are that the JBI chart or any other chart will look much smoother after-the-fact, leading one to believe that they had a clear inflection point, top, or bortom where they could have made a clear decision. At that point of decision, the chart was actually jagged upwards or downwards. you had no idea where it would go, hence there is no point in kicking yourself..

besides, kicking yourself is painful and can result ion serious injuries.

what JB said on the CC made sense to me. if it is not illegal to sell the fuel, it would be unethical, because the process which made it has not passed tghe DEC tests....

it is difficult for longs now, seeing as most would be underwater... i understand the difficulty with contemplating selling. it is likely not a question of taking some off the table (at a profit) but accepting a loss.. unless you were in at .20.. and don't believe it won't go back there unless JB performs.

Consider this: as time wears on here... the losses grow. a drop of .20 now means much more than a drop of .20 did a couple of months ago.if you had any smarts at all you would have taken some off the top .. at the top.. on the way up.. then you are laughing.

i had a theory that maybe refineries would buy the pyrolysis oil in small quantities out of a desire to see JBI succeed as a green company. it would be excellent PR for a refining company. But large quantities? i am not sure about that.

the only experience I had is doing cost control for a refining project in canada. it was to build plant for the purpose of removing sulphur fropm gasoline to produce high-grade gasoline. all i know is that the plant had to be super-efficient, really well-built in other words. all tolerances were very tight.

i would have to think that the composition of what was going into it was critically important as well..

I agree, except that I also cannot come up with a good reason why they WOULD NOT be able to take it. Can't argue either way. I would bet they would not take it if I was a betting man.

another issue around this, what exactly constitutes "high" sulfur? Because the percentage of sulphur must be extremely low, so what is "high" is relative. The Islechem letter stating that the sulphur content is "low" means nothing...that is a vague statement, but the actual percentage is critically important...

especially when the contest allows people to simply submit another gues of the deadline is missed altogether...

just an impression from the CC and having been around this stuff.

Excellent considerations.. about which i have no idea of they are necessary. i just know that they are commonly required in this situation.

the major challenge here, and I don,t think the majority of posters realize this, is getting the process going smoothly in order to prepare properly for the stack test. the stack test itself is simple.

having been around industrial processes, i see that as the major challenge.

the mentions in the CC about the proliferation of instrumentation and the delays and problems with the oxygen sensors indicate that JBI is figuring it out on the fly. Also, their control system needs to be tested and calibrated..

it is hard to say how long it will be and even if they will be successful. I would say likely it will operate at some point, but then will it deliver the numbers as promised?

those are the risks for investors..

it remains to be seen whether or not the catalyst is that much better. for all we know, it might be exactly what jb says it is. i think it unlikely, but..

It takes considerable resources and cash to get something like this off the ground. you are right that large companies would be much better positioned to take on something like this, and they have not.

and we do not know if the tape business could be profitable or not either, because jb is not doing it...

in a word.. NO.

my statement about the NASA data is not a stretch. Thing is, NASA does not know what the data is, do they? so they can't classify it. once it is classified and known, then maybe it can be publicly available yes. JB's statement about the fact that is is old and worthless is another gaffe on his part. not sure his reasoning.

if you are more interested in facts.. news: information coming from JBI is not fact.

hate to disappoint you..

hmmm.,,, i wonder if the originator could still make a case that the invention was theirs. likely not... i would exp[ect that some agreement would accompany the sale forgoing any future claims.. regarding IP.


notice it can never be proven that this catalyst exists either... the secretive nature of it guarantees that... nor can we assess it's worth or validity.. i thought it came from NASA. that gave it credibility... now it has lost that credibility. it could have come from a moonshine stand in Arkensaw.. Deliverance?

well first off,... i obviously was relying totally on memory and substituted MIT for NASA. NASA is the US government. So, without calling our lawyers and arguing about this for days, let's assume that the US government does not routinely give data out without strict controls on how it is used and handled.

Yes i am making assumptions, but I have been around government contractors. i work now in a place where my job site is surrounded by barbed wire and guys with grey uniforms, pistols and rifles. So.. give me some latitude.

I don't come here to second guess everything I post. I would rather discuss. Some things are just obvious... I don't really care who said what from JBI. These are my assumptions, regardless of what is in the ibox.

I have no idea what the arrangements are between JBI and NASA, correct. But, I am here to discuss. I am willing to bet that this data is potentially viewed as impacting the national security of the United States and as such is tightly controlled. I think I am pretty safe.

I would guess that they have a contract with a timeline in it that JB is choosing to interpret as it is not important right now. He still may make his dates, but he may be forgoing business and may be passing up incentives. That is because I know something about the nature of contracts. I have no idea what his arrangements are. i don't think MIT would wait forever.

So the catalyst may not be from NASA. Well the question still applies that this is not his invention and not his Intellectual Property. Now, again without caling a lawyer if he modifies it it really does not matter. It is still someone else's formula. It is still their invention,. modified or not. Lets discuss..

your coment on the NASA tapes is likely correct. point is, they would not be allowed in the public domain. no way...

what I find really interesting about the stock market is how important timing is. Prices seem to be very inaccurate in valuing a company over market swings and cycles, presenting opportunity to those who can wait. Just because you like a stock like JBII and all of it's ideas, you have to fight your emotions and get in at just the right time. It can be years...

coming out of a bad economy like the last several years is an excellent time to search for gems. And it becomes apparent that the markets do not value companies well. It takes a long time for a company to fall from grace and to come down from highs. It is just a matter of waiting it out.... until.. just the right time.

I first got introduced to JBI in January. I saw the tape business as the backbone of the business. I would have just waited for it to mature a bit. i thought the other stuff was good possibilities and p2o potentially fantastic... potentially.

The rise in stock price was unexpected and put it out of the ball park for me... Upon reentry, I would have looked for stability and resolution to issues prior to getting in. I would have liked to see the tape business contract value and order backlog. No BS, what work have you got lined up? I don't see that. I do see a probability of great success, but I don't know what that probability is, and I don't want to gamble.

By contrast, I could name a company in Canada that has a engineering business based on billable hours and custom engineering work. Stable as you can get. This is something akin to JBI's tape business. Several years ago they did a Reverse Split and had financial problems. Those seem to have been solved... anyway they have been doing about $7M/ year in revenue and the share price has slid slowly from a $5 peak (pre 15:1 Reverse Split) during the dot-com boom to .13 as we speak, with a low of .04.

They just got a $28M multi-year deal.

anyway that deal caused the price to go up from the low of .04 to .13 with that company. Imagine if they execute... and get profitable... If they dont'.. i will be making a few calls.

there is an investment.

the comment struck me as funny when he said it. Wall Street guys are pretty smart. I think that everybody probably realizes that the tape business is not a "growth" business or maybe a game-changing killer app like p2O, but it definitely is a winner for a few years anyway, and that is enough to stabilize a business. Especially if someone like JB is smart enough to be that good at it. If he is really the best at it, they would recognize that.

Company Mission: to be a best of breed data cleansing/ migration company that will use that established business as a springboard to develop game-changing environmental technologies...

I would buy that if/ when their revenues and stability (contracts in hand with stated contract value) somewhat justified the stock price.

Mission: to go for it with an absolute killer app that will clean up the world and eliminate the garbage patch with huge profits and 2500 sites in 2 years....

NOT.

Note in the first definition, you cannot really say that the data contained therein will be used to the company's advantage... i don't think that is generally possible with Intellctual Property considerationhs.