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Long is the best place to be right now, if your trading out further than one day. The $NDX RSI(5) is at 35.6. If we go below 30 buy more longs. This market is going to retest the 50 DMA at 1590 before it heads south, that would probably put the RSI(5) above 70, then I will go short. We have had 3 up days, we were due for a pullback. If I'm right I'll rub it in. If I end up wrong I'll admit it. I'm not a Bull or Bear, I'm just following my chart.
If you noticed I don't use words like horrendous, or other catastrophic language. Just the facts!
Good Trading to All!
Lindy
Vestor 2000 - I don't use the S&P 500 MACD and I don't look at just the MACD number. I use the MACD for the $NDX. I look at the two lines on the MACD. The thick black line (MACD) and the thin blue line (9 day EMA). These lines are getting closer together. This is a bullish indicator since the thin blue line is above the thick black line.
We shall see how this plays out.
Good Trading.
Lindy
2X-Be-Me - Yep those manipulators, jammers, and public relations people was sure out in force this weekend. Didn't think of that! Otherwise, you would have been right. He! He! He! He! He! He!
Oh, know the sky is starting to fall again! We better get them manipulators, jammers and PR people out there.
Got to love it.
Good trading, Lindy
2X-Be-Me - We don't need bear cheerleaders. Just because the RSI(5)by itself is pulling back a bit doesn't mean jack. The MACD(12,26,9) is starting to trend upward. If we close positive today it will be the 3rd day up. We are due for a pull back.
Bottom line: $NDX RSI(5) will go to 70 before 30 (If I am wrong I will buy more longs under 30). When it hits 70, I will consider shorting.
Good Trading!
Lindy
Vestor 2000 & POKERSAM - As I said on Friday, I was holding long for the weekend based upon the $NDX RSI(5) and MACD(12,26,9). Currently the S&P futures are up 4.70. If this stands, it could push the RSI(5) over 50 on Monday. RSI(5) over 50 will more than likely go to 70 before 30.
The place to be right now is LONG. I believe we may hit 39.20. However, I will follow the chart.
The break of the 50 DMA caused a big drop to the downside. Now we need to go back and retest the 50 DMA (which I think will fail). I suspect the $NDX RSI(5) will be around 70 at that point. Then, I will change to a short position. We then probably fall to the 200 DMA, which could bring the $NDX RSI(5) back down to under 30.
We have been trending up the last two trading days. Despite interest rate hike, gas prices up, and hurricane.
I don't see anything out there right now that would crash this market at this time.
So I will just follow my charts and continue buying long until the charts say otherwise. Right now I am seeing green for being long since 22 Sep.
Yes, September could close out poorly as it historically has. However, we have 4 trading days in the mean time.
Good Trading to All,
Lindy
Vestor 2000 & All - Have a great weekend! Hope your seeing the green as I am!
Lindy
2X-Be-Me & Vestor 2000 - 2X once again I would have to disagree. The $NDX RSI(5) is at 39.6 the MACD(12, 26, 9) is starting to change direction. I believe we will have a run to the 50 DMA around 1590. Which will hit the RSI(5) 70. However, I believe that resistance will fail, then we continue our downward trend towards POKERSAM's target, with intermediate counter trends. Vestor 2000 - This is my input for why I am holding long over the weekend. Hope it helps.
Just my 2 cents!
Good Trading!
Lindy
lpdcb - In 2001 wasn't we in a Bear Market which ended March 2003? Wouldn't that have an effect on the RSI(5)? Right now we are in a Bull Market, I personally will not short below $NDX RSI(5) 30. I may hold a short position below RSI(5)30 depending on the trend of the MACD (12,26,9).
Just my 2 cents.
Good Trading!
Lindy
2X-Be-Me - Don't know what RSI(5) you was looking at. The $NDX RSI(5) on stock charts showed the RSI(5) above 30 at yesterdays close. RSI(5) now reads 25.3. If RSI(5) holds below 30 I will probably cover my shorts at the close, take some profits off the table and initiate a long position for a bounce up.
Good Trading to all!
Lindy
POKERSAM - I can honestly say that I've seen alot more green in my portfolio the past 2 months than I have seen all year.
Thanks to you and others on this board for thier input.
Good Trading to All!
Lindy
POKERSAM - I feel left out. I've been bearish since 6 Sep. Yesterday, I confirmed my bearish stance.
$NDX RSI(5) is 36.9, we had a bearish crossover yesterday on the MACD (12,26,9). We are going to RSI 30 before we go to 70.
It's as clear as a bell on the charts!
Good Trading to All!
Lindy
All - $NDX RSI(5) at 36.5, MACD (12,26,9) showing bearish crossover. We are now below the 50 DMA. Looks like this bear run is just getting started. Glad I added to my short position on Friday. 200 DMA is 1536 which is where I think we are headed.
Good Trading to all!
Lindy
Vestor 2000 - Don't miss the boat. I just added to my short position. RSI(5) is 56.9 we are going to 30 before 70. Look at the RSI(5) history.
Good Trading!
Lindy
Bollinger - Yes, the name can go either way. Of course I was named after my father, he was named after Charles Lindberg "Lucky Lindy". There also was an NFL football coach for the Packers and Colts named Lindy Infante. There is also a dance called the Lindy Hop, Lindy Motorhomes, and other products.
Long position at 39.21 as a hedge against my short positions which I am pleased to say I will be in the green at the close today!
Thanks to POKERSAM I made the short entry a little early, but well worth it now!
POKERSAM - No problem. We all make mistakes. I'm also sorry for the comment I made about you not excepting worthy advice.
Actually I would have came out on the better end, because I always listen to what you have to say and I have learned alot from you and other members of this board.
Great Trading to you!
Lindy
Ignore list - I have also put Doddle and Janet33 on my ignore list. POKERSAM - it's no big loss to me that I am on your ignore list. I don't think anyone on this board could give you any worthy advice. Hopefully someone can pass this along, that is not on his ignore list.
Good Trading!
Lindy
Husk - I sold my long positions on 6 Sep (Yes a little early) and started easing into the short side which as of 12 Sep I am 35% short. If the market closes at it's lows today. I myself would take a long position to hedge against any possible upside. Why take a short position today, when you could probably get it at a better price tomorrow. The odds are the market will be up tomorrow. The RSI(5) is 42.1. Why would you buy short with the RSI(5)at almost an oversold indication.
Good Trades!
Lindy
OT - You are obviously a Bush basher or terrorist lover. Regardless as to what you think, Bush will be in office until January 2009. He has won two terms. He will probably go down in history as one of the BEST Presidents that we have had. I don't take much stock in the "rating game". I have never been called to give my opinion or if I have I probably didn't answer the call. The only thing that counts is Nov 2nd when I go cast my vote and I've been on the winning side the last two elections. You say that Bush has screwed up with the economy, Iraq, Afganistan, Katrina and oil prices. You must be just plum ignorant! Our economy is strong. Unemployment is the lowest in years. More Americans own homes than ever before. Interest rates have been the lowest in years. If you have noticed Iraq and Afganistan has been the breeding grounds for terrorist. I for one am glad that we are killing them there, instead of them killing us here. Katrina was an event long overdue for New Orleans it was only a matter of time. Why was Katrina any different from other hurricans in Florida? Bush received good marks for them. Do you really think the Federal Government did anything any differently that those disasters. I doubt it. As a retired military man who has served more than 21 years in the Federal Government I can tell you that President Bush has done more for this disaster than the ones in Florida. The problem with Katrina was the type of people that it effected. The lamb, lazy, and the ignorant! 68% of New Orleans fell into that type of people. Some are better off than they were before Katrina and when it is all said and done, most will be better off! This President has had to deal with more disasters than any President I know of and has done so, in a compassionate and humane way. God Bless the USA and God Bless President Bush.
2X-Be-Me - So is your down trend still in tact? And do you still classify the up trend starting around 26 Aug as a counter trend? I've noticed today that we are hitting the $NDX lows of 2 Aug. If I would have followed my charts, the RSI(5) and the MACD(12,26,9) I would still be long today. However, I listened to the noise on this board and went short before receiving confirmation on my charts. Luckily, I am only short 25%. I expect next week we will get a pull back. Of course you have been saying that the last three weeks. I guess eventually it will happen. Right now the MACD does not show any sign of a down trend. As I stated yesterday, I think we may be in the early stages of this up trend. If you look at the history of the RSI(5), once it has crossed above 70 it tends to stay there for awhile. Since I did not follow my system, my present plan is to hedge to minimize my losses, until the MACD changes course and the RSI(5) falls below 70. Right now if I was long I would stay long.
I'm not a day trader (As I have been called) and I am not a bull or bear. I try to go where the charts lead me.
Good Trades to All!
I was ready 2 days ago. Looks like we might be making the move down. Or maybe it is just a head fake. The RSI(5) has taken a nose dive below 70, however, MACD trend has not changed much.
I would say 55% chance. We could still be in the beginning of this uptrend (counter-trend).
Lindy
$NDX RSI(5)now over 76 (indicating over bought conditions), however, the MACD (12,26,9) showing no indication of a down trend. It looks like I got to anxious and didn't follow my chart. Luckily, I am only 25% short at this time. We could still be in the beginning of this uptrend (counter-trend). Until I see some downward movement on the MACD I will hold my current position.
Good Trading to all!
Lindy
All - $NDX RSI(5) above 70 added to short position
Vestor 2000 - I think this market has topped out for now. I went short yesterday at the close. The RSI(5) is at 71 (Over Bought Sign) and MACD (12,26,9)is starting to point slightly to the downside (My confirmation). Will add to my short position if we stay above RSI(5) 70 and MACD continue down trend.
Good trading!
Lindy
2X-Be-Me - I agree that a down trend started Aug 3. However, on Aug 26th I stated that a bottom seemed to be reached. Which was the case, and from that date to present we have been in an up trend. The charts tell the story. You can call it counter trends or what have you. The market goes two ways up and down. We may be topping out now on this run. However, the MACD still points up. We have been in a long term (Major)up trend since May.
Good trading! Sorry you missed out on this run.
Lindy
All - With RSI(5) above 70 I decided to initiate a short position. However, the MACD (12,26,9) is showing a slight up trend. If we continue above RSI(5) tommorrow I will add to my position. I figure at current level this is low risk.
Good Trading to all!
Lindy
Vestor 2000 - I don't use the RSI(5) by itself. I also use the MACD(12,26,9) to confirm the direction. Right now the MACD is still showing an up trend, however, it has been pulling back. Right now I am sitting on the fence to see witch way the MACD goes. I may take on a short position if the RSI(5) closes above 70, the risk will be low. Just my 2 cents.
Good Trading!
Lindy
Vestor 2000 - You never want to go long when the RSI(5) is above 70. I won't even attempt to buy new positions above 50. Right now there is a better than 50% chance the market will head south.
Good Trading!
Lindy
2X-Be-Me - Exactly where does your down trend start?
Lindy
All - $NDX RSI(5) hit 70. Sold my Long positions. Will go short at the close if RSI(5) remains above 70 and MACD starts downward trend.
Some folks lost alot of money today.
Good Trading!
Lindy
Sorry wrong day. I meant "Tuesday 7 Sep 2004"
I would think that would be a major up trend? Maybe I'm reading it backwards. He! He! The only down trend I have seen lately was when I was short Aug 2nd to Aug 24.
For you shorts, I hope Tuesday is not like last years Tuesday. The market closed Friday 3 Sep 2004 at 34.14 and closed on Monday 7 Sep 2004 at 34.43.
Good Trading to all!
Lindy
2X-Be-Me - How can you keep saying we are in a down trend, when we are above the 50 DMA. You said the same thing last week. We opened at 38.26 on Monday and we are now at 38.84. Sure looks like we are trending down alright. I agree that we might not go much higher, but I do believe that we will see the RSI(5) hit 70 before 30.
Lindy
OT - I can agree with most of your assessment. However, the biggest problem in this disaster is the class of people. New Orleans is 68% black. The city leadership is black. As you can see no prior planning was done in this city for a disaster they knew was inevitable, they knew that the levyes could only with stand a CAT 3 hurricane. The majority of these people do not care about their fellow man, but only of themselves. Looting, riots, and gangs are their way of life. Now they are showing the world how they perform in a disaster. The exceptions are the Condelisa Rice's and Collin Powell's. But despite this, we will come to their aid only to be bashed by the Jesse Jackson's & Al Sharpton's. Wonder what this world would be like if they were President. God, help us all!
All - $NDX RSI(5) at 56. MACD(12,26,9) trending up. When the RSI(5) is above 50, chances are real good that it will hit 70 before going back to 30.
Good trading to all!
Lindy
All - The RSI(5) is at 57 the MACD (12,26,9) is trending up. Until the RSI(5) hits 70 I will continue the long position. If RSI(5) drops below 30, I will add to long position. RSI(5) is due to hit 70. When it does I may go short depending on MACD trend.
Good Trading to all
Lindy
Another market over reaction. Right now I will be a buyer at the open. Yes, this hurricane may cause alot of damage, however, loss of life will be minimal, 50,000 (not in this country)the last major hurricane in Florida took about 268 lives, that is still too many. I pray to GOD that he protects the people in those areas. They have excellent emergency management procedures that have been refined over years. The insurance companies have piles of money to cover the damages since they have increased insurance rates from previous hurricanes. They will probably use this one to increase rates again. Some jobs will be lost temporarily, however, many new jobs will be created to rebuild if needed.
Anyone that shorts the market on a disaster is sick!
I always buy at the close. I trade QQQQ(long) and USPIX(short) since USPIX is a mutual fund the order has to be placed & accepted atleast 10 minutes before the market close.
Here is my chart:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQQ,uu[w,a]daclynay[pb50!b200][iLb5!La12,26,9]&pref...
As you can see the RSI(5) is below 30 indicating oversold conditions. The MACD (12,26,9)looks like it has bottomed out around the -.09 area and closed today at -.08. MACD most of the time starts the upward trend in advance of the market. To me it looks like a possible up move based upon these indicators.
Yep, RSI(5) is below 30 (indicating oversold conditions), MACD (12,26,9)seems to be bottoming out at around -.09
So we might get a rally next week.
Good Trading to all!
Lindy