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Omandan - If the Daily RSI(5) closes below 30 I would agree to close any profitable shorts. That is a steadfast rule for me. However, I think we have further to drop before we get a long run in the short term of course.
Now will the next long run up be of any substance, per Pokersam probably not. At this point I would have to agree with his assessment.
Good Trading to ya!
Lindy
Nocona - Your system does very well. However, have you thought about looking at the MACD(12,26,9) for trend indicator. Just like today if the Market closes below Daily RSI(5) 30 you would buy a long position. However, the MACD will probably still be showing a strong down trend. In situations like that would it not be more advantageous to wait a trading day and double up on the position if it goes lower?
Now if the MACD showed a weak down trend then I would say go with the trade.
Just a thought.
Lindy
Market View - Well looks like Pokersam and I are right on the current direction of this market, and of course Pokersam called the top. The MACD(12,26,9) is showing a bearish crossover. We go down from here to under the NDX Daily RSI(5) 30 (That could be today or next week). If I was short I would take profits when RSI(5) dips below 30. I will be watching the MACD for a trend change to the upside. We will start a bull run before the MACD bullish crossover occurs. I think we could get a bounce off the 50 SMA at 1689-90.
JMHO
Lindy
Market View - Bigger up day than I expected. However, MACD(12,26,9) continued closer to a bearish crossover. To much resistance on the upside. Tomorrow a down day. Probably won't hit Daily NDX RSI(5) 30.
Next week Bearish.
Good Trading!
Lindy
That's a little early for this old man. He! He!
Pokersam - Actually I hope you are right. However, I think that there is too much support at these levels.
http://charts3.barchart.com/procal.asp?sym=QQQQ
I believe tomorrow will be an up day (not a big up day by no means). Then on Friday we drift downward.
I think(I hope) we will hit RSI(5) 30 before 70 but I don't think that will happen until atleast Friday or next week.
JMHO
Lindy
Daaverage - In Oct when I went short I was waiting for the Daily RSI(5) to hit 30 to sell them. The RSI(5) broke it's historical pattern and only went to 36 then headed North. I got caught holding a big short position. So I have modified my plan and when the RSI(5) goes below 40 I lighten the load on the short side. So I will reenter when the RSI(5) either goes below 30 or above 70 and depending on the trend of the MACD(12,26,9). Now if we had a bearish crossover today, I would have remained short, as a bearish crossover would have confirmed continued downside.
In Oct I was lucky that I established a long position (Hedging against an upside move) and was able to sell off some of my shorts in Novemeber without taking a large loss. I am hoping that overtime we continue a pullback and I can rescue some of my stranded shorts or eventually take a tax write off(When I can't trade for a couple months). I will hold long term if need be. Heck I still have a QQQQ long position at $52 that I have now held since Feb 2001, of course that is in my IRA account so I can't get a tax write off for that one, so I just hang onto it. Who knows in 10 years I might actually get a profit off of it.
Freemarkets & RCP - Get a life! You don't have time to read posts, but you have time to write crap like this.
Then someone goes crying to the moderator!
Why don't you guy's stay off Pokersam's back. He is entitled to his opinon. Use the ignore, you don't have to announce it.
There is nothing wrong with a little competative spirit and humor! Why don't you guy's get some.
Lindy
KovuLk - Yes it could. We will just have to wait and find out. My preference is for the market to continue south, so I can get a Long entry below the RSI(5) 30.
KovuLK - Your probably right. However, I got burned once. So I will just sit it out until I get another entry point.
I've still got some shorts from my Oct bad call, so if it continues to fall I might get some of that back.
Metal - I watch CNBC during the day and monitor the futures on bloomberg in the evening.
Metal - Don't know what impact this may have, but since the Nikkie closed 20 minutes early, there maybe some sellers that didn't get their sell in yesterday.
Heard that on CNBC earlier today.
Lindy
2X - Just sold my profitable shorts. Yes no bearish cross over today. I will wait for the next entry point at below RSI(5) 30 or above RSI(5) 70
marin - Daily NDX RSI(5) and 9 EMA
Marketview - Stockcharts NDX RSI(5) is at 38.0, MACD(12,26,9) trending down, getting close to a bearish crossover. If we get a bearish crossover, we more than likely will have more downside. However, if the NDX recovers and we avoid a bearish crossover. There could be a good run on the upside. This is where I screwed up in October. I still have some short positions left from that time frame, that I am working off little by little.
Therefore, if we do not get a bearish crossover by the close today. I will be selling my profitable short positions at the close. I will then wait for either a long or short signal to reenter a position.
However, if we get a bearish cross over by the close today. I will remain short.
Good Trading to all!
Lindy
Pokersam - Not a pretty picture if your long right now. Pass me another one of those nice thick bull steaks over here.
Yep, sell off tomorrow and then probably up day Thursday.
Pokersam - Here it is. If you notice no bears are on the list.
"Well We called the top last Wednesday and so far we are 100% correct. hahahaha No way anyone can argue with that." And we didn't make the Lead Trader List.
41.74 could happen tomorrow.
It was Intel's earnings report. He! He!
Haven't heard from him all day. Hope all is well.
Hey Pokersam, we having another party tonight in the Bears Den?
Now we wait for IBM, Intel, and Yahoo earnings! Could be a blood bath tomorrow.
Staying short at the close.
Good Trading.
Lindy
Omandan - No problem. Thump! Thump!
Position Trader - Right now Stock Charts NDX Daily RSI(5) is 56.3, MACD(12,26,9) trending down. We more than likely will close below RSI(5) 70 (bearish). I believe this pullback will take us down to 50 DMA which will probably be around RSI(5) 30 area.
Good trading!
Lindy
Pokersam - You called it! I just agreed.
I see that the Bear Den is getting larger.
Lindy
Say what! I just get no respect! Now I know how Pokersam feels.
The upside looks pretty lousy at this point.
http://charts3.barchart.com/procal.asp?sym=QQQQ
So what is the criteria to be lead traders? Be a yes man, go with the flow, tell ya what you want to hear?
Who here is qualified to make such a determination? What qualifications do they have?
Unless something happens between now and Tuesday morning.
This chart shows more likely down than up. We could probably drop to QQQQ 41.74 without much problem. Not saying we will drop that low on Tuesday. To much resistance on the upside.
http://charts3.barchart.com/procal.asp?sym=QQQQ
Good Trading.
Lindy
KovuLK - Glad to be of service.
Husk - I think one thing all of us have learned here. There is no perfect system. There will be no perfect system. We just have to call it like we see it. We learn from our mistakes and others on this board.
Like I have said before, I like things simple. That is why I stick with the Daily NDX RSI(5) and MACD(12,26,9). Sure I look at other indicators like the RSI(14), CCI etc... and I go to http://quote.barchart.com/texadv.asp?sym=QQQQ . When it is all green and the strength shows "strong" or "maximum" it usually means it's time to go the other way.
You said "During the week, I look for indications that those indicators may be changing.....moving averages, or support/resistances failures or confirmations are important."
Obviously the changes that did occur this week was not enough to change your position. What would have to occur at this point to change your position? I'm not trying to change your position, I'm just wondering what it would take for that to happen.
Respectfully,
Lindy
Pokersam - WOW! #2 Grizley Bear. You caught me off guard! Didn't prepare a speech for this.
I just want to thank the Bear's Den and all of my fellow Grizley Bears for this high honor. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!
A big steak next week would be nice.
All in fun of course!
Husk - "it's what my indicators say right now" What are those indicators?
Lindy
Metal - Good report! I agree 100%.
Pokersam - Yep, lets celebrate! Well the Longs can't say they wasn't warned. They had a perfect chance to get out today. Tuesday could look pretty bad.
Lindy
Well it closed at RSI(5) 71.5. Upside is getting weak. 60% chance down on Tuesday.
Good Trading!
Lindy
Position Trader - The Daily NDX RSI(5) looks like it may close below 70 today. Next stop will be 50. Could be a blood bath for Longs next week.
Of course I could be wrong.
Lindy