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Bob - This is Nocona's Modified VTO system.
Divide the money that you allocate to this system by 3 parts.
Use RYVYX (2x $NDX) to invest.
When daily RSI 5 of $NDX closes below 30 invest part 1 in RYVYX.
If the $NDX closes lower than the previous low invest part 2 in RYVYX.
If the $NDX closes lower than the previous low invest part 3 in RYVYX.
When the daily RSI 5 of $NDX closes above 50 sell all parts of RYVYX.
Make your trades on the day of the signal.
This is a good system.
If you have any questions on this you should direct them to Nocona.
I trade UOPIX (Long) and USPIX(Short). My trading rules are fairly simple. I initiate the initial long position when the Daily NDX RSI(5) is below 30, with the use of the MACD(12,26,9). I may add to the position as I see fit up to RSI(5) 50. Above RSI(5) 50 I will not add any longs. I may sell a long position anywhere between RSI(5) 50 and above. I will only go short when the RSI(5) is above 70, with the use of the MACD. I may sell my short positions anywhere between RSI(5) 40 to 30. I will only sell positions that are profitable. I will hold positions long term if need be. When I get to a point where I do not have the funds to continue trading. I will hold my positions for up to 60 days and then sell all at once for a loss(Tax write off). Then I will start all over again. This chart is my primary tool http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[w,a]daclynay[da][pb50!b200][iUb5!Ua12,26,9]&...
I also review these sites:
http://www.vtoreport.com/rsi.htm
http://quote.barchart.com/texadv.asp?sym=QQQQ
That is pretty much my system. I have not taken the time to document my profitability. I may start doing that this year.
If you would like to review my historical record feel free to look at my posts at http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=2462
Husk - I'm glad to hear that you feel strongly about "truth". This got way blown up. I have no reason to doubt that Nocona is an upstanding fine person. He made a conflicting statement. I questioned him on it. He responded with another conflicting statement. Then you have others coming to his defense with no substance whatsoever.
I am the one getting badgered. Nocona is probably reading all this and laughing. Why did anyone else have to get involved? It didn't pertain to them. Why didn't all of you just let Nocona respond for himself?
I have reviewed the history of those that have attacked me today. They have really not brought much substance to this board as far as their view of the market is concerned, to me they have shown their ignorance.
Nutckles - You care to explain your brief no substance comment? The only reason I am responding to you, is because I still have posts to spare.
Husk - You must have something against the "truth".
You stated "Nocona has been generous to a great extent in sharing ideas, and the performance on his system"
Nocona's VTO modified system is an easy system to follow, if you follow it. However, I would currently question the performance results of the system. Based on my previous posts.
Hey, No problem! Nocona, I am sorry for bringing this up. Hey, just add another 100% and forget the whole thing. Now your system has performed what about 1000% since 1997. Hey I'll believe that. Why not. Go with the flow! or take a walk. Whatever!
Daaverage - I don't need to. The stats he posted today already invalidates his stats. Unless he makes a correction for 1 part.
Salty24 - Why? For telling the truth. I stated the facts with supporting documentation.
I didn't say the VTO system was a bad system. I follow it pretty much myself.
Zelareka - Your wrong! Nocona on the 23rd and 25th stated in the following posts why another part would not be added.
It's all on record.
Posted by: Nocona
In reply to: salty24 who wrote msg# 18005 Date:1/23/2006 4:20:28 PM
Post #of 18435
salty24:
VTO Modified Update:
1-20-06 Part #1 invested in RYVYX
Today's close with the $NDX down .08 cents occured after 4:00ET so no buy today
I can buy Rydex up until 4:00 ET With Brown but at 4:00 the $NDX was positive a few cents.
Nocona
Posted by: Nocona
In reply to: 2X-Be-Me who wrote msg# 18172 Date:1/25/2006 4:28:41 PM
Post #of 18435
2x-Be-Me:
The $NDX needed to close below 1676.38 to add a buy.
It closed at 1677
Nocona
Yours, daaverage's, and Nocona's comments today don't make sense. If this kind of manipulation is happening now. What's to say it hasn't happened before, which would make his stats invalid. To me they have just been invalidated with his claim today.
Daaverage - You don't make any sense. Give me the posts that back up your claims. From all the posts of Nocona from the 20th until now, he has only indicated that he bought 1 part. Now today when he posts his VTO Modified results he shows 2 parts bought. This might lead me (maybe others also) to believe that his stats have been manipulated.
This has been the 2nd time you have came to his defense when I have questioned his stats. Which I have backed up with posted comments.
Nocona - But on the 23rd you said
Posted by: Nocona
In reply to: salty24 who wrote msg# 18005 Date:1/23/2006 4:20:28 PM
Post #of 18431
salty24:
VTO Modified Update:
1-20-06 Part #1 invested in RYVYX
Today's close with the $NDX down .08 cents occured after 4:00ET so no buy today
I can buy Rydex up until 4:00 ET With Brown but at 4:00 the $NDX was positive a few cents.
Nocona
This brings the integrity of your stats into question. How many other trades have you fudged on? Not saying that you have, but it is questionable based upon these conflicting statements you have made.
Nocona - There seems to be a conflict from previous statements. Based on an earlier post(see below) it looks like only 1 part was invested.
Posted by: Nocona
In reply to: 2X-Be-Me who wrote msg# 18172 Date:1/25/2006 4:28:41 PM
Post #of 18427
2x-Be-Me:
The $NDX needed to close below 1676.38 to add a buy.
It closed at 1677
Nocona
Espresso - I could be wrong. However, I think we may go retest the highs and then go lower. So if your long sit back and enjoy the nice little ride(which I have most of), if your short (which I still have some) it may be a little nerve racking, however I think we will ultimately turn to the downside once again, maybe sometime next week.
Of course this is just a guess at this point. Right now my next point of interest is the bullish crossover on the MACD.
Market View - Nice run up today. NDX Daily RSI(5) at 60.7, MACD (12,26,9) is trending up towards a bullish crossover.
This upward run may have just begun. Usually we get a bullish crossover about halfway through the upward trend.
So I will now stay long to the bullish crossover and then decide from there.
Gleno - I could be wrong. However, I think we are going to Daily NDX RSI(5) 50 before back down to 30. Reason: We have dipped twice below the 30 line (History indicates we go up). Also the MACD(12,26,9) is now starting an upward trend.
I like a clean desk:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[w,a]daclynay[da][pb50!b200][iUb5!Ua12,26,9]&...
When I went to my advanced training course in the Army, they said to much information cloggs up the brain. They also taught me the KISS process (Keep It Simple Stupid).
No with that said we will probably go down.
Position Trader - Good advice. It could be tragic to short with Daily NDX RSI(5) this close to 30.
Chico - I agree. Stay with your system. Fo me, things look oversold and time for a move up. I think this afternoon we break one way or another. If we go back below the Daily NDX RSI(5) 30 I will by some more longs.
Chico - The double bottom was on the NDX. Look at the 23rd and yesterday. Yesterday it failed to hold above the 50 DMA and broke down. Today if we bust through the 50 DMA which I hope we will do by this afternoon. I expect we will then be headed for a bullish crossover on the MACD(12,26,9). So this could be the start of a ST bull run.
Caribbean J - Great! Lets get this thing headed north.
Espresso - I bought a long position at the close. I figure it is low risk on much more downside. It's time to start heading north.
Espresso - Maybe we are due for some good news. Indicators are looking pretty oversold. I will probably be initiating a long position at the close.
http://quote.barchart.com/texadv.asp?sym=QQQQ
Nocona - I'm confused. I thought since 1997 there was 32 sequences that had 3 part buys and 11 of those resulted in a loss.
I understand that in 2005 there was 6 three part buys with no losses.
Omandan - Yep, the chip sector was already down so it was probably already priced in.
Texas Instruments reports after the bell. Could have a negative impact on the market tomorrow if earnings aren't good.
Looks like market will close up or even. I'm holding off on Long position for today.
2X - I thought today we would have a slight bounce. However, looks like we maybe down at the close. If so, I'm with you. I will also take a partial long position, risk is low.
Chico - Your probably right. Currently the Daily RSI(5) is around 29, up from last Friday. But the MACD(12,26,9) still shows strong downward. So today we may go up a little, but tomorrow will probably be down, and Wednesday could also be down. Maybe Thursday we start a turn around. I think you might have mentioned that previously.
Pokersam - Once again well said.
Daaverage - Probably so, the NDX Daily RSI(4) is at 20 right now. I expect 15 will be reached.
Pokersam - Yes mostly cash right now. However, I still have some short positions that got stranded during October. So I hope your right and the overall trend is downward so I can collect some profits on those positions down the road.
Pokersam - Well said!
Little Chico - I agree with your assessment that we have more downside to go, but the risk is to high to be short. I myself will be looking at the Daily MACD (12,26,9) for a change in direction.
Metal - You stated "As a side not, I respectfully disagree with northam43 is his view that if your system did not have you short for yesterday, that there is something wrong with your system. (http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=9343686). No system is perfect and will have loses. You take the good with the bad."
I wasn't just referring to yesterday's down day. I was referring to the period starting January 11th to the present. Go back and read my posts. If your system didn't get you short or on the sidelines before yesterday, your system needs an adjustment. If you can live with those type of losses then stick with it. I learned from my mistake in October. I sold my profitable shorts when the Daily RSI(5) hit around 36. Even though a bearish crossover was very close. Had it went to a bearish crossover earlier, I would still be short. But that's ok, I got my profits and I will wait for the upward move.
Yes, I agree that we take the good with the bad. By reading your post you seem to be evaluating your system and finding out where you went wrong. That is good! That was my only intent. I hope it works well for you in the future. I don't want anyone here on this board to fail!
Pokersam - It is sure funny how the tide turns. Last Saturday on Bulls & Bears they were all bullish. Now watch tomorrow's show and I bet they turn bearish.
Zelareka - I don't know what system you are using. However, you need to determine where it broke down and if it is fixable or find another system. A good system will have boundaries (oversold/overbought) not just one direction.
There are alot of good systems used here.
Vestor - This is one of the weaknesses to the VTO system.
"From the beginning of 1997 there have been 32 sequences that we have had 3 positions. 21 gains & 11 losses"
With the current strength of the MACD, this could very well go to 3 positions, which would have a greater chance for a loss.
If you look back at these 32 sequences you might find that the MACD was in a strong downward movement, just guessing of course. However, to get 3 positions under Daily RSI(5) I would think that would have to be the case.
Something to think about. If your system didn't tell you this was coming, you might want to change or reevaluate your system.
JMHO
Lindy
Vestor - concur 100% on the VTO system.
Doesn't look like much support until 40.65
http://charts3.barchart.com/procal.asp?sym=QQQQ
Nocona - You maybe right. However MACD on the downside is just to strong right now.
JMHO
Lindy
Market View - I will not go long until the MACD(12,26,9) starts to change towards an upward trend. The upward trend will occur before a bullish crossover. Monday maybe a continuation.