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Daaverage - I agree
Rcp - since I found out you can make money either way, I have been in HOG HEAVEN! It's great having BULL STEAKS & BEAR STEAKS.
What a Country!
RCP does A-1 go good on Bear steak like it does on bull steak?
nlightn - Anytime!
Pokersam - If it was the NDX I would be in. But I would not dare go against you on the SPX. Your the man!
Rcp - You need a sense of humor. I've been eating bear steak now since the 26th.
nlightn - Without us, you would have nothing to read. Why do you come to this forum anyway? Because you want to see if everyone else that is making calls here is on your side. But, you don't want to stick your neck out, because your scared you might make the wrong call, and it would embarrass you or someone may bash you like your bashing them.
Jim - Here is some data on Bullish crossovers:
Start Date Run/NDX Date of Cross/NDX End Date/NDX
Dec 19, 2006/1665 Jan 5, 2006/1705 Jan 11, 2006/1759
Nocona system sold around Dec 22nd at 1684(19 pts)/Entry Dec 29 at 1655 and sold Jan 3rd at around 1680(25 pts) missing 10 points
40 points from Start to Crossover
54 points from Croosover to End
Oct 6, 2005/1554 Oct 20, 2005/1569 Oct 24, 2005/1590
Oct 24th the RSI(5) closed over 70
Nocona system sold on Oct 17 at 1550 missing 40 points
15 points from start to cross
21 points from cross to end
Sep 21, 2005/1562 Sep 30, 2005/1601 Oct 03, 2005/1605
Nocona system sold on Sep 29 at 1590 missing 15 points
39 points start to cross
4 points cross to end
Aug 24, 2005/1562 Sep 6, 2005/1597 Sep 12, 2005/1614
The NDX could have been as low as 1580 on the cross date, however I used the top for that day.
Nocona sytem sold on Aug 31 at 1582 missing 32 points
35 points start to cross
17 points cross to end
Jun 23, 2005/1516 Jul 8, 2005/1534 Aug 04, 2005/1628
On July 20th NDX was at around 1602
Nocona system sold around Jul 8 at 1534 missing 94 points
18 points start to cross
94 points cross to end
April 14, 2005/1442 May 2, 2005/1424 Jun 02, 2005/1569
Nocona system sold around May 3 at 1427 missing 142 point gain
-18 points start to cross
145 points cross to end
As you can see during the period April 14th to the present, there is more profits from the cross to end then the start to cross. I was inaccurate to use the term "halfway". I just meant that I believe there is usually alot more upside after the crossover. The start date was based on when the Daily NDX RSI(5) closed below 30.
Also this indicates that using Nocona's system you might have missed about 333 points. I do not guarantee this to be 100% accurate. I used the low NDX on the start date and the high NDX for the end/sale dates. This in know way is indicated as a negative against Nocona's system. The VTO system is an excellent base with a high rate of return. By using the VTO and MACD there is more upside with relativity no more risk.
My previous post was based on a quick eyeball observation of the bullish cross over pattern. I welcome anyone to do a more detailed research on this or comment on any errors pertaining to the data, that I have made.
Gloe - I don't know anything about tclark1's system. I use the basic VTO system as a guide and monitor Nocona's updates(which really has no impact on my position). However, I use the MACD(12,26,9) to determine if I remain in a long or short position. Using this method I have been pretty accurate in determining the tops and bottoms. If you review my previous posts that can be verified. So far the only recent bad call I have made was in October 2005 when I failed to see the bottom. At that time I was looking for the RSI(5) to hit 30 and it never did, leaving me in a fairly large short position. However, I have been able to rescue some of those shorts through hedging.
When the RSI(5) gets above 80(Go Short) or below 20(Go Long) those are no brainer signals and easy money.
Market View - One of the drawbacks of Nocona's system, is that it produces a sell when the market has really just started it's run up.
Today the Daily NDX RSI(5) closed at 58.9, the MACD(12,26,9) is trending upward and maybe headed for a bullish crossover. As I stated before usually a bullish crossover occurs about halfway through the upward movement.
If the market pullsback and closes below the RSI(5) 50 before a bullish crossover occurs I will be adding longs. If a bullish crossover occurs, I will continue to follow the upward trend until the MACD starts to show a change in trend.
This is my last post until midnight.
Pokersam & Free Markets - Thanks Pokersam for your response.
Free Markets - Yes, grammer is not one of my strong points. You will probably find alot of those types of errors in my posts. I'm to old to change or care.
As for my positive attitdue. Don't know what your talking about. I think I do have a positive attitude though.
You might want to check your spelling yourself, before critizing me.
Bob - This is Nocona's Modified VTO system.
Divide the money that you allocate to this system by 3 parts.
Use RYVYX (2x $NDX) to invest.
When daily RSI 5 of $NDX closes below 30 invest part 1 in RYVYX.
If the $NDX closes lower than the previous low invest part 2 in RYVYX.
If the $NDX closes lower than the previous low invest part 3 in RYVYX.
When the daily RSI 5 of $NDX closes above 50 sell all parts of RYVYX.
Make your trades on the day of the signal.
This is a good system.
If you have any questions on this you should direct them to Nocona.
I trade UOPIX (Long) and USPIX(Short). My trading rules are fairly simple. I initiate the initial long position when the Daily NDX RSI(5) is below 30, with the use of the MACD(12,26,9). I may add to the position as I see fit up to RSI(5) 50. Above RSI(5) 50 I will not add any longs. I may sell a long position anywhere between RSI(5) 50 and above. I will only go short when the RSI(5) is above 70, with the use of the MACD. I may sell my short positions anywhere between RSI(5) 40 to 30. I will only sell positions that are profitable. I will hold positions long term if need be. When I get to a point where I do not have the funds to continue trading. I will hold my positions for up to 60 days and then sell all at once for a loss(Tax write off). Then I will start all over again. This chart is my primary tool http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[w,a]daclynay[da][pb50!b200][iUb5!Ua12,26,9]&...
I also review these sites:
http://www.vtoreport.com/rsi.htm
http://quote.barchart.com/texadv.asp?sym=QQQQ
That is pretty much my system. I have not taken the time to document my profitability. I may start doing that this year.
If you would like to review my historical record feel free to look at my posts at http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=2462
Husk - I'm glad to hear that you feel strongly about "truth". This got way blown up. I have no reason to doubt that Nocona is an upstanding fine person. He made a conflicting statement. I questioned him on it. He responded with another conflicting statement. Then you have others coming to his defense with no substance whatsoever.
I am the one getting badgered. Nocona is probably reading all this and laughing. Why did anyone else have to get involved? It didn't pertain to them. Why didn't all of you just let Nocona respond for himself?
I have reviewed the history of those that have attacked me today. They have really not brought much substance to this board as far as their view of the market is concerned, to me they have shown their ignorance.
Nutckles - You care to explain your brief no substance comment? The only reason I am responding to you, is because I still have posts to spare.
Husk - You must have something against the "truth".
You stated "Nocona has been generous to a great extent in sharing ideas, and the performance on his system"
Nocona's VTO modified system is an easy system to follow, if you follow it. However, I would currently question the performance results of the system. Based on my previous posts.
Hey, No problem! Nocona, I am sorry for bringing this up. Hey, just add another 100% and forget the whole thing. Now your system has performed what about 1000% since 1997. Hey I'll believe that. Why not. Go with the flow! or take a walk. Whatever!
Daaverage - I don't need to. The stats he posted today already invalidates his stats. Unless he makes a correction for 1 part.
Salty24 - Why? For telling the truth. I stated the facts with supporting documentation.
I didn't say the VTO system was a bad system. I follow it pretty much myself.
Zelareka - Your wrong! Nocona on the 23rd and 25th stated in the following posts why another part would not be added.
It's all on record.
Posted by: Nocona
In reply to: salty24 who wrote msg# 18005 Date:1/23/2006 4:20:28 PM
Post #of 18435
salty24:
VTO Modified Update:
1-20-06 Part #1 invested in RYVYX
Today's close with the $NDX down .08 cents occured after 4:00ET so no buy today
I can buy Rydex up until 4:00 ET With Brown but at 4:00 the $NDX was positive a few cents.
Nocona
Posted by: Nocona
In reply to: 2X-Be-Me who wrote msg# 18172 Date:1/25/2006 4:28:41 PM
Post #of 18435
2x-Be-Me:
The $NDX needed to close below 1676.38 to add a buy.
It closed at 1677
Nocona
Yours, daaverage's, and Nocona's comments today don't make sense. If this kind of manipulation is happening now. What's to say it hasn't happened before, which would make his stats invalid. To me they have just been invalidated with his claim today.
Daaverage - You don't make any sense. Give me the posts that back up your claims. From all the posts of Nocona from the 20th until now, he has only indicated that he bought 1 part. Now today when he posts his VTO Modified results he shows 2 parts bought. This might lead me (maybe others also) to believe that his stats have been manipulated.
This has been the 2nd time you have came to his defense when I have questioned his stats. Which I have backed up with posted comments.
Nocona - But on the 23rd you said
Posted by: Nocona
In reply to: salty24 who wrote msg# 18005 Date:1/23/2006 4:20:28 PM
Post #of 18431
salty24:
VTO Modified Update:
1-20-06 Part #1 invested in RYVYX
Today's close with the $NDX down .08 cents occured after 4:00ET so no buy today
I can buy Rydex up until 4:00 ET With Brown but at 4:00 the $NDX was positive a few cents.
Nocona
This brings the integrity of your stats into question. How many other trades have you fudged on? Not saying that you have, but it is questionable based upon these conflicting statements you have made.
Nocona - There seems to be a conflict from previous statements. Based on an earlier post(see below) it looks like only 1 part was invested.
Posted by: Nocona
In reply to: 2X-Be-Me who wrote msg# 18172 Date:1/25/2006 4:28:41 PM
Post #of 18427
2x-Be-Me:
The $NDX needed to close below 1676.38 to add a buy.
It closed at 1677
Nocona
Espresso - I could be wrong. However, I think we may go retest the highs and then go lower. So if your long sit back and enjoy the nice little ride(which I have most of), if your short (which I still have some) it may be a little nerve racking, however I think we will ultimately turn to the downside once again, maybe sometime next week.
Of course this is just a guess at this point. Right now my next point of interest is the bullish crossover on the MACD.
Market View - Nice run up today. NDX Daily RSI(5) at 60.7, MACD (12,26,9) is trending up towards a bullish crossover.
This upward run may have just begun. Usually we get a bullish crossover about halfway through the upward trend.
So I will now stay long to the bullish crossover and then decide from there.
Gleno - I could be wrong. However, I think we are going to Daily NDX RSI(5) 50 before back down to 30. Reason: We have dipped twice below the 30 line (History indicates we go up). Also the MACD(12,26,9) is now starting an upward trend.
I like a clean desk:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[w,a]daclynay[da][pb50!b200][iUb5!Ua12,26,9]&...
When I went to my advanced training course in the Army, they said to much information cloggs up the brain. They also taught me the KISS process (Keep It Simple Stupid).
No with that said we will probably go down.
Position Trader - Good advice. It could be tragic to short with Daily NDX RSI(5) this close to 30.
Chico - I agree. Stay with your system. Fo me, things look oversold and time for a move up. I think this afternoon we break one way or another. If we go back below the Daily NDX RSI(5) 30 I will by some more longs.
Chico - The double bottom was on the NDX. Look at the 23rd and yesterday. Yesterday it failed to hold above the 50 DMA and broke down. Today if we bust through the 50 DMA which I hope we will do by this afternoon. I expect we will then be headed for a bullish crossover on the MACD(12,26,9). So this could be the start of a ST bull run.
Caribbean J - Great! Lets get this thing headed north.
Espresso - I bought a long position at the close. I figure it is low risk on much more downside. It's time to start heading north.
Espresso - Maybe we are due for some good news. Indicators are looking pretty oversold. I will probably be initiating a long position at the close.
http://quote.barchart.com/texadv.asp?sym=QQQQ
Nocona - I'm confused. I thought since 1997 there was 32 sequences that had 3 part buys and 11 of those resulted in a loss.
I understand that in 2005 there was 6 three part buys with no losses.
Omandan - Yep, the chip sector was already down so it was probably already priced in.
Texas Instruments reports after the bell. Could have a negative impact on the market tomorrow if earnings aren't good.
Looks like market will close up or even. I'm holding off on Long position for today.
2X - I thought today we would have a slight bounce. However, looks like we maybe down at the close. If so, I'm with you. I will also take a partial long position, risk is low.
Chico - Your probably right. Currently the Daily RSI(5) is around 29, up from last Friday. But the MACD(12,26,9) still shows strong downward. So today we may go up a little, but tomorrow will probably be down, and Wednesday could also be down. Maybe Thursday we start a turn around. I think you might have mentioned that previously.
Pokersam - Once again well said.
Daaverage - Probably so, the NDX Daily RSI(4) is at 20 right now. I expect 15 will be reached.
Pokersam - Yes mostly cash right now. However, I still have some short positions that got stranded during October. So I hope your right and the overall trend is downward so I can collect some profits on those positions down the road.