You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you get want you need. Rolling Stones
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Speaking of Oily. With all of his "inside" information, you would think he would be on top of the ROO. This is a ideal time for him to get one right (finally) by indicating the ROO will be announced before Friday. That has to be much better than a 50/50 shot, which would bring up oily's average!
Also, we need someone to do an ADDAX presentation watch. It should start at 5am EST, so any of you early birds please listen in and post at will. Those of us who sleep in will then be able to read your posts for a quick update of the ROO. Thanks in advance to anyone who listens in and posts. Anybody planning to listen in?
I have never looked into the ERHC's EEZ rights very throughly, as I have always considered them a very minor part of the ERHC investment package.
So, you are saying STP can only put 1% of the EEZ in a public auction and that 1% is what ERHC has first pick on? And STP can legally get away with that? Doesn't sound kosher to me. I would think that there would definitely be a legal battle as I have stated before.
If ERHC has the right to the first pick in the EEZ, any change to the EEZ that reduces this right is subject to a lawsuit, anyway you look at it. If ERHC's rights are reduced in any way shape or form, ERHC has legal rights to what they were originally given and can litigate those rights.
A while back I predicted the share price would leave the twenties on Monday and it did.
I also predicted the share would leave the thirties by the end of last week, but it didn't. Now I think the share price WILL leave the thirties behind this coming week.
Who would consider selling at this point in time with the ROO announcement just over the horizon. Of course those who do not follow this stock as closely as those here may not be aware of this situation and will sell for who knows what reason. But IMO, there are only a few sellers (those uninformed individuals) and many more buyers who want to load up before the news is announced. This is why we can say goodbye to the thirties this week, and the forties next week. May the force be with us (as well as the ROO).
I am looking forward to the market opening on Monday AM, I expect a possible gap to the high thirties as more people had the opportunity to digest the ADDAX presentation over the weekend. A gap to forty would be great!
Ps: If only I could convince my wife what a good buying opportunity this is, but right now I just hope the ROO is announced soon so I can get out of the dog house I am in because of the 35 cent price.
Although no one here wants to see the EEZ rights disappear because of STP legislation action, the EEZ rights represent VERY little value in today's ERHE shareprice. Out of the 35 cents share price, I would estimate the EEZ represents less than one cent.
Of course, if the EEZ rights that ERHC have presently are in fact changed or reduced or eliminated, there will be a fierce legal battle. I would guess that STP does not want this as any legal battle(s) would cause long delays in developing the EEZ oil. It is possible ERHC rights in the EEZ could be bought off by these "favored" companies and wind up with a pile of cash and then there would be no delays. These new developments could work in ERHC's favor.
Ps: Maybe I should take off these rose colored glasses!
I would expect a PR from Kosmos first, since they are the ones getting the AA first. That would make the most sense.
While, the ROO announcement is on everyone's mind, that "other" rig, the AA should be leaving for the GOG any day now as sea trials should soon (very soon, if not already) be over. I wonder if there will be any announcement when the AA begins its journey.
If I figured the London time right, that's 5am EST or 2am PST. Hope the replay is available when I get up!
Ps: How come all those "supposed" naked shorters in ERHE are not being forced to cover and push the share price waaaaay up? IMO, there was VERY little shorting in ERHE since all American brokerage house do not allow you to short a BB stock. So there was really no shorting of ERHE.
So when we all meet in Vegas when the share price is $5, those that hold over a half million shares of ERHE will be buying all the beers for everyone?
http://w.on24.com/r.htm?
This is the replay of the ADDAX presentation. Every ERHC investor should listen to it for themselves to "feel" the exuberance of the ADDAX employees whenever the JDZ or the ROO is discussed.
I can not believe it took the government this long to stop the practive of naked shorting. Long overdue, but finally done.
In the immortal words of Bart Simpson: "Eat my shorts"
JB, that is very good news, especially for BB stocks like ours. Do you know when this measure went into effect. If it did today, it may be the reason for the spike!
Oilcowboy, north of what? 30 cents, 50 cents, a buck or two?
Ps: Price hit 34, but the bid ask spread was 31.5 -34 (much too wide)
Since ERHC has already hit 33 within a half hour of the opening, I would think my prediction will ring true. (last of the twenties by day's end).
As more and more people become aware of what ADDAX said in the presentation, no one with any sense will be selling now that a ROO could be announced any day now.
Although I thought we would see a run up right after the presentation, I guess it takes a little while for the news to spread. Also, as I said before, many here are still very gun shy and have to see it in writing to believe it and I can not blame anyone for thinking like that.
Price Prediction for tomorrow -
last of the twenties by days end
Price Prediction for next week -
last of the thirties
Price Prediction for by the end of the month -
last of the forties
EXCEO, the problem is this is the second time she and I are going through this situation. Some here on this board know about WGMGY, which my average was a buck. It went down to the teens, then back up over three bucks, then to pennies. She has vivid memories of this where we lost over 200K. Keep in mind we were up over 700K at one time when it was at its peak from a low when we were down more than 250K. What a roller coaster. I would hope ERHC will have some nice high rises in the future, but right now it is very hard to convince a doomsayer of anything positive in the to belief like I do in ERHC's future.
My wife gave me a raft of shitte when she asked me about ERHE's shareprice today when it was 26. She thinks it will go to zero and told me to sell now. I mean sell NOW before we lose everything. I can only hope that the ROO comes VERY soon and the price gets back to at least fifty cents. I can no longer stand all of the crap she keeps giving me. Addax please pay what ever it takes to get the ROO.
Oilcowboy, get the best information on the ADDAX presentation by hearing it firsthand. Here you only get info from those who listened to it and posted what was said. Listen for yourself, that way you here it from the horses mouth. I would hope everyone would take the time to listen to it even though it is quite long. Or you can read the "cliff notes" here and save lots of time, just like in High School.
IMO, the odds of getting an ROO went from maybe a 25% chance of success in the past week or so, to now a 90% chance of success. Is that how others feel the chance of success are?
Also, I would guess that this safety issue with the rig crew should be resolved in not more than a week or two at most.
Do you think ADDAX will issue a PR if the ROO is secured?
also, from Johnny Sticks post:
A replay of the conference call will be available at (416) 640-1917 or (877) 289-8525, passcode 21281389# until Thursday, October 16, 2008.
A live webcast of the presentation will be available via the following link:
http://w.on24.com/r.htm?e=117931&s=1&k=BCE56753F7BA88469EB2E2079E3D1BF1
The Capital Markets Day presentation materials will be available on the Corporation’s website at www.addaxpetroleum.com.
I would like to hear from the "oil men" hear about how much of say the rig crew has in determining the future site location of a rig. Do they have veto power over the company to stop a rig from going somewhere. Can they hold out for more money or go on "strike" if the location is not very palatable? How easy or practical is it to get a replacement crew? Can some of the crew go and have the others replaced?
These are VERY important issues, since presently, the crew's worries about Rig security appear to be the only thing holding ADDAX up from getting a ROO. Any response is appreciated. TIA
Jean Claude, says Blocks 1-4 offshore out of reach of MEND,
200 mil barrels in Kina
Everyone should listen to the Addax presentation and get a first hand feel for what Jeff Shrull (sp) said about the ROO. It appears the hold up right now is getting approval from the crew on the ship because of security reasons (possible MEND attacks?). But I think if it is up to the crew whether or not to go to Nigeria (now stationed in Gulf of Mexico) most workers would not want to go to Nigeria. I certainly would want to stay closer to the States and avoid traveling so far away. But maybe the crew is just worried about the safety factor.
Yanke, great post! You should copy that post and put it on RB. Great summary of ERHC's goodies.
midtieroil, I think I have written that same post several times. I am in complete agreement with you. EHRC is wasting time and money looking for this pie in the sky subsidiary. The company should concentrate on the drilling rights and only the drilling rights.
Thanks Manti, that's what I suspected or EVERYONE would be volunteering for the Moderator job.
This is the IHUB post by Balance Builder I was referring to that has been brought up on RB concerning Balance Builder receiving a $20K check. Balance has never addressed this issue. Does anyone know why CHCR sent BB a $20K check?
Posted by: balance_builder Date: Tuesday, May 13, 2008 7:42:19 PM
In reply to: oilphant who wrote msg# 128685 Post # of 137851
I want to thank ALL of you for the very kind notes and emails. This is my youngest sons last summer before going away to college and I plan on spending the extra time with him. Dadd and Dougc...CHCR finally sent me my first $20K check :o)
You know, this is a very cool group of investors. Some very wise.....some with industry knowledge.....some jacks of all trades.....some that don't write well but have alot to say.
I sincerely expect to meet some of you one day. We haven't sat here for years for nuttin.....it WILL happen.
Keep your eyes peeled for the ole' co headfake. What better way to get them to meet your price. Don't believe everything they tell you!
Keep the faith.....and your eye on the prize.
Most Sincerely,
BB
P.S. "R" I pray for your speedy recovery. Listen to your caregiver as she probably does know best :o)
Why are you and others thanking Anadarko? Does this have anything to do with the ROO? Has Anadarko released any PR about this? I do not like being in the DARK about AnaDARKo!
This is what I was trying to say about RB:
Almost everyday ERHC's filings about the investigation are shown or discussed in a negative way on RB. Even though MOST posters over there on RB and ALL posters over here on IHUB (with any common sense) realize the investigations are no longer at issue, as in, NOT actively being conducted by the gov't. The failure of those negative posters on RB to "accept" reality just shows they only believe what they want to believe and can not see the truth that the investigations are basically over. Why they put forth such an effort to try to "fool" investors about the investigations is beyond me. Why would someone with no monetary interest in ERHC spend so much time doing what they do unless they are paid bashers? And why does Hunter support the cause even though he says he owns free shares?
Note: When I am away from my computer and I post from my iPhone, the phone (or the program that runs the phone) drops or changes words all the time and if I post without a good proof read, there are many errors and sometimes the post makes little sense. Sorry about the gobbled post.
Ps: Anyone else think the SP will gap up a few cents on Monday AM?
Pss: I still would like an explanation on why Balance mentions getting over ten grand.
The $64,000 question is: Will there be a Rig of Oportunity or do we have to wait for the AA begin drilling On Oct 1, 2009?
Since Balance left IHUB I have been reading RB. I still do not understand why he left this board to go over to that zoo. I also would like an explanation about the payment BB posted about receiving. Almost every ERHC's filings about the investigation are shown or discussed in a negative way even though MOST posters over there and ALL posters over with any common realize the investigations are no longer at issue as in NOT actively being conducted by the gov't.
I am not very big on chart reading as I believe that fundamentals and "news" drive and control stock prices. IMO this small run up is likely rumor based and what happens next week will determine what is really going on. ERHE has undergone past run ups for no apparent reason and this could be another one. But I really doubt it. If the share price continues rising sharply with no real news this could mean more and more insiders know something about the ROO and are buying before the news is released. Those here have a pretty good idea that ROO news is coming soon from our very own sources who post here. Now it looks like the market is indicating the coming of a ROO as well. Most here are content with the many shares (almost too many) they and have no need or desire to jump on this rumor to buy more. Those overloaded with shares would be very satisfied with the ROO news being made public and the accompanied rise in the share price. I know I would be sitting back with a BIG smile on my face if the share price raced through the 40's and 50's as I expect it will once the news breaks. I do not believe this a situation where there will be buying on rumor and selling on the actual news. Unless of even more rumors start to fly and the SP hits a buck before the actual announcement.
So what happens in the following weeks is very critical. I just hpoe the SP rise continues into next week and there is no fallback into the 30's ever again.
The $64,000 question is: Will there be a Rig of Oportunity or do we have to wait for the AA begin drilling On Oct 1, 2009?
Even with this rumor /news from Spec the SP stagnates with low volume. This shows how little affect a chat room has on the SP. Even when a reliable and trusted long time poster indicates ROO(s) have been located the news does NOT move the SP. I can only say two words, gun shy!
Thank you, detective Dat for the AA contract clarification. I knew someone here would get to the bottom of it. Dan K could not "speak" for AA or Addax or Kosmos even though Jim L let the cat out of the "whoops" bag. Now we have the information right from the source, the contract is for 4 + 4 drilling slots, just like I summarized after weighing all the evidence. This gets Dan K. off the hook, so we do not have to bug him about this anymore.
No Red, no cheese for the last post. I just want to voice my opinion on how I feel the current outlook is for the stock, as we all WAIT for news on the ROO or other events that may help the share price.
Whining would be complaining about how little management has done to help the share price.
Whining would be complaining how management is wasting a great deal of time and money searching for a "business opportunity" to increase shareholder value.
Whining would be complaining about management even bringing up the possibility of share dilution to fund this new subsidiary.
Whining would be complaining about the continued drop in the share price over the past months after all the hype, PRs and presentations to better present the company to the investment company.
Whining would be complaining the company has/is wasting too much on unnecessary endeavors that are not helping the share price.
Red, Please pass the cheese.
Unless we get some good news soon, the gravity of waiting around may put the share price under 30 in the next few weeks/months. Although I feel this is the worst possible time to sell, those that need to do so for whatever reason, continue to put pressure on the downward side. Most here can not sink more money into this "money pit" for many reasons. Probably the biggest reason is they are "over invested" in ERHC already and with the price where it is, it is hard to justify chasing when the target appears to keep moving further and further away. The next reason one can not buy more is trying to justify a buy to one's spouse who is probably giving you so much shitte already for being invested in ERHC that you are afraid to even bring up the subject of buying more. Being single sometimes does have an advantage as these kinds of decisions are yours alone.
I guess I was wrong when I said I thought MOST here were in this stock for their assets. I guess others thought those assets wrere NOT enough and needed management to wheel and deal for better things. Like that is REALLY going to happen. Just get the damn ROO already.
I have never understood how ERHC would get an AIM listed subsidiary from what they were saying in the past. No giving up the assets and no share dilution. They were suppose to get something for nothing. I posted over and over this was impossible. So, now it comes out, ERHC may issue more shares to buy the subsidiary. They have kept this dilution very quiet, in fact, if I remember correctly, in the past ERHC said they would not issue more shares for the subsidiary. So now, the story changes and to get a subsidiary ERHC will HAVE TO ISSUE more shares to do any kind of deal. That now makes sense, since you are
buying into the new asset.
It appears, ERHC has spent a great deal of time and money to do this. A new employee (David B), use of an existing employees (Jim L and Peter N), as well as investigation expenses.
I am AGAINST this idea as it has nothing to do with the reason I bought this stock. Most here bought into ERHC because of the assets they controlled, not to see the company get involved in some unknown subsidiary. This is just a bad idea and I hope no deal is ever reached and if a deal is reached and a shareholder vote needs to be taken, I already know I am against it. Just develop the assets ERHC already has and concentrate on that.
The $64,000 question is: Will there be a Rig of Oportunity or do we have to wait for the AA begin drilling On Oct 1, 2009?
I recall that as well, I believe it was said it takes about 8-9 months lead time for rig operation supplies to ready the rig to drill. I believe, ERHC said that those items needing that kind of lead time were already being taken care of by the operator (Addax). I think this was back in March, reading for a Dec drilling. However, I do not think pipe is one of those commodities that need that much lead time. BWDIK! I am not sure what these items that need a long lead time are, but maybe some of those oil experts here can let us know.
The $64,000 question is: Will there be a Rig of Oportunity or do we have to wait for the AA begin drilling On Oct 1, 2009?
Again, not being an oil expert, I do not think there would be much trouble in scheduling the pipe arrival as needed to fulfill the daily needs. Although there is a general worldwide shortage of drilling materials, I would think that once a ROO is firmed up, there would be enough lead time to order and have delivered enough pipe as needed. I would guess there would be many different sources of pipe unlike to very few sources of rigs. Pipe is probably a very common material and if in short supply, the supply could be easily and quickly geared up by the pipe manufacturers. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
The $64,000 question is: Will there be a Rig of Oportunity or do we have to wait for the AA begin drilling On Oct 1, 2009?
Troy, I think you are right about Jim L. letting the cat out of the bag in a "whoops" statement during the cc. And then the follow up cover by Dan K. to make no further comment. How can Dan K comment without "lying" or without disclosing something that ERHC should not be disclosing. Dan K is caught between a rock and a hard place. Dan K saying no further comment was appropriate and NOT some kind of conspiracy.
So the question is, Does Kosmos need to disclose the change of terms in the AA contract? This has to be based on whether the change is considered a material fact or not. I really do not know enough about the oil industry to know whether you make this kind of change from time to complete of a drill slot is material. If the original terms for time are close the the expected time to complete the drill slot, that certainly is NOT a material event. So the question boils down to how long Kosmos expects it to take to drill these wells. Tapco indicates about 8 months for the 8 wells, a 33% increase in time from the original six month contract. Is this a material change (event). My guess would be that it is a very close call whether to consider this a material change or not. So I do not believe there has been any deception on any of the parties involved.
But I do believe, Jim L may have possibly erred by disclosing something that was not for him to disclose. Jim L appears to be a straight shooter honest guy and I would bet he got too caught up in the moment during the cc and just gave an honest answer without realizing what he said, should not have been said. People make mistakes all the time and there is not a conspiracy involved.
So lets take what we know by this "whoops" and not crucify management for it. We can also try to "verify" this information from the PROPER SOURCE, Addax, Kosmos, or the owner of the AA. We do have a great investigating team here. Anyone want to play Sherlock Holmes? Balance Builder you game?
The $64,000 question is: Will there be a Rig of Oportunity or do we have to wait for the AA begin drilling On Oct 1, 2009?
Tapco, thank you so much for clarifying the time it takes to drill. With so many oil experts here and none of them elaborating on drilling times after several requests, your post is greatly appreciated.
So using your drilling estimates, and using 4 + 4 drilling slots by Kosmos, the time line for getting AA is ONLY pushed back about two months. That is a lot easier to live with then a six month delay. With your detailed analysis of drilling times, you bring some joy to the shareholders now that the delay is shortened.
The $64,000 question is: Will there be a Rig of Oportunity or do we have to wait for the AA begin drilling On Oct 1, 2009?