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IT'S JUST GOOD ACCOUNTING!!!!!
IT'S END OF YEAR IMPALEMENTS OR WRITE DOWNS
THE DETAILS WILL BE IN THE FULL REPORT WHEN IT COMES OUT.
THEY DON'T WANT TO PAY TAXES IN CANADA IF THEY DON'T HAVE TOO.
2 MILLION INCREASE IN GROSS EARNINGS Q/Q.
Q3 2014 = 8,093
Q4 2014 = 10,396
q3 = 0.01 EPS
Q4 = 0.00
So you mad 20 Gs today
Me too!
OH.
DIDN'T KONW.
Then what's the point of people going on how they hate the company!!!
I could understand if they had a position.
Guess they need to go out door a little more. Perhaps they are stuck in a wheelchair, or were injured at work and are tired of watching TV.
SHORT THE POP...NOW!!!
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE TO SHORT THIS INTO THE CLOSE BEFORE THE DISASTROUS EARNINGS AND BANKRUPTCY ANNOUNCEMENT.
Ok...
your right i have not showered in a week.
also,
I've got 435,000 BAA shares.
that's no BS check out my previous posts today and over the weekend.
been long baa for a while.
Though I respect them.... some have no position but constantly bash baa.
So they should just short it.
No I am not.
Short the pop EOD
short it at the end of day then
3:45
There will not be much more time for it to advance.
You'll be perfectly positioned for the big fall tomorrow.
SHORT THE POP
if you're sarcastic and pessimistic then short the pop today.
Take action.
Shoot from the hip and knock this worthless penny stock down to where it should be.... 0.01.
Gramercy selling hand over fist can't be good news.
0.22 has been resistance anyway.
Senior Management Confirmation (2)
As per my conversation with senior management.
Gramercy selling is a "technicality"
got the impression that it is something about the 20% thing and total allocation to one company with the next deals .
Asked about the 20% specifically didn't get a hard answer.
But the insulation seemed to be that the 20% issue on a share based standpoint was one driver behind the attrition of Gramercy owned shares.
I think this is a counter intuitive situation where the selling by Gramercy is confirmation that the other two deals will go through.
"they have lots of internal controls and procedures". I was told.
Senior Executive Confirmation!!!!!
Received confirmation on several assumptions form a member of Senior Management.
1) They would be able to pay all bills even without deal.
.....easily with current cash flow.
2) Fully expect the other two deals to close.
3) Seeking legal actions against Gold Holdings on the 41 million agreement that was "signed commercial agreement". They were unable to peruse other options because of the "signed commercial agreement".
"The deal broke up because of a shareholder dispute within Gold Holding".
4) Looking to refinance next year the debt that is due in 2017. Looking to refinance it for a long term period. Reducing debt in the mean time is "top priority".
5) Hydro power a possibility at both mine sites.
6) @ Nomoya hydro power site is further away (10 miles) but there is an old facility there once run by the Dutch. Namoya "was at one time an underground mining operation" run buy the same Dutch company that had the power plant.
Getting hydro power there is more near term than Twangiza due to the abandoned facility.
7) Dilution is the last thing they would do in order to obtain financing going forward.
IT'S STILL DIRT CHEEP
I'd be buying too if i didn't already have 1/10 of my liquid assets already allocated to Baa.
Broke all of my rules allocating to this one.
Risk Reward is absolutely ridiculous.
We have the edge on the institutions with this one.
You're spot on at high prob. 0.02
Best case 0.03
They surprised to the up side on production.
Maybe the same with earnings.
Absolute gift @ $0.21 or lower.
AISC will be crushed lower in Q1 !!!!
down to about $600/oz AISC
and $500/oz cash
for Twangiza
BMO or AMC
If they don't report BMO it's cause they are trying to close the deal.
It's pretty obvious they don't respect shareholders.
the only reason they have not diluted more is Pal would be trading between 0.03 and 0.05 and they would never again be able to access the public markets in a meaningful way.
That being said accounts receivable is looking healthy lately.
There's likely more upside if they don't dilute again.
streaming deals are debt hybrid.
would not be part of their stock port.
Big Upside Potential.
I think Gramercy knows this better than we do.
60 million is a big streaming deal.
Sandstorm doesn't even do deals that size.
http://www.banro.com/i/pdf/Exploration-Potential-of-the-Twangiza-Namoya-Gold-Belt-May-2014.pdf
There is a whole lot of upside to Banro if things go well.
Gramercy is interested in catalyzing events.
Filon B
39.6m @ 21.48g/t
Good luck.... i will not be around for a while big work situation I've got to deal with.
Arnold Kondrat
debt due dates....
It's deep in the quarterly reports somewhere.
I'd find it if I had the time today...
semi annual. if I recall.
Naomi also clued me in also.
From a supplier standpoint...they'd get a bad reputation if they forced a company into insolvency...
All the miners are struggling.
I did have to make some risky assumptions based on nuance in the conference calls and nuance when talking to IR.
But think about it It is better off for Gramercy to keep the company in business because then they can execute all of the convertibles.
If it wasn't for the convertible debt and the warrants. Totally different ballgame... and I wouldn't have allocated 1/10 of what I did.
If there were no warrants and convertables...then, perhaps it would make more sense to let them go BK and Gramercy and Blackrock take over.
But why not keep it public and liquid. They would wind up infusing the same amount of capital and taking it public again.
Keeping it public is a better scenario for them.
Just as importantly look at Arnold Kondrat trading history.
He was buying at $4, $3, $2, $1...then he sold half his shares a year ago this time @ $0.50. He bought back the entire lot he sold and more in January.
That was the real tell.
Very thorough...
I do understand how to trade.
Understanding how to do something and doing it are two different things.
Meaning I've been there done that, did ok but not enough to make a real difference in life.
I'm giving research based deep value investing a try this time.
Warren Buffet Style
Already closed first sale.
You're quite right.
I've run the numbers also...been long before the deal was announced.
In a big way too...
(435,000 shares) hate to keep repeating it...but it shows my level of commitment.
From the research I did at the time they didn't need the deal to survive.
----
But I've got to say when they did not open for trading on the morning of February 27, I nearly puked and pooped at the same time. Of course I knew their debt payment was due the next day.
-----
I bet Gramercy got a sneak peak at their production numbers for January and February before they agreed to the deal. Banro would have the exact number for January and approximate numbers for February by that time.
The rainy season is October to May and look at the month over month increases in production form October to December.
Twangiza about 2000 oz increase in production each month.
"Twangiza poured 8,071 ounces in October, 9,825 ounces in November and 11,549 ounces in December for a fourth quarter 2014 total of 29,445 ounces of gold."
Extrapolate that to January and February.
I think this will be a great deal for Gramercy.
Thanks.
I'm always frustrated when this stock retraces most of it's gains.
Truly pisses me off.
Typically the re-tracement starts two or three days after the event.
Perhaps this time will be different.
Regardless...
You shorting for a few days or weeks will not affect me.
I'm here for $2.00 or BK
Catalyzing events
Well...
I don't know what the logic is...really
Perhaps they had to draw funds for another opportunity they saw.
Have you seen this article...
http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/banro-secures-financing-designed-to-make-it-fully-operational
"Robert Rauch, a portfolio manager with Gramercy, said after the initial investment, “we have worked with the company as part of a plan to unlock value by catalyzing events."
Note, "catalyzing events"
I was very concerned about it two when I first saw the selling by Gramercy...
And I'm still a bit concerned about it.
But...
It is a small fraction of their ownership interests.
And they are in the money at higher prices
Yup,
The jobs number from Friday should add a boost to gold put the dollar under pressure.
Gold traded in every other currency has actually done ok. during this rise of the dollar.
The last time the dollar index was at around 100 was 2003 back then gold traded at 350 to 370.
Dollar index being the dollar relative to all other currencies shows just how well gold has actually held up.
Here. on the right of the page you can chart gold in all the major currencies.
Makes me feel a lot better when i see the dollar flying up.
It's all relative valuation.
http://www.goldpriceoz.com/gold-price-canada/
True...
They will scale it of course.
If your short you better hope they don't report before the market open on Monday.
If you're so lucky that they do an AMC reporting you better close out any short positions.
If you're short going into this earnings you might get crushed in a big way.
Just a friendly comment.
You might try shorting a few days after earnings if you think the deal will not go through.
If they announce good earnings, improved production and the deal.
Forget about it.
50% day easily.
Gramercy
They will be selling a lot more as the share price rises
63mm- convert-perfered
gramercy exercisable @
0.5673 expry 6-1-17
13mm warents-
gramercy exercisable @0.269
expry 8-17-17
To your point:
http://stocknewsflow.com/1286597_000091957415001314_0000919574-15-001314
excerpt is the following....
9. AGGREGATE AMOUNT BENEFICIALLY OWNED BY EACH REPORTING PERSON
10,873,150 common shares
63,000,000 common shares issuable upon exchange of preferred shares1
10. CHECK BOX IF THE AGGREGATE AMOUNT IN ROW (9) EXCLUDES CERTAIN SHARES (SEE INSTRUCTIONS)
11.PERCENT OF CLASS REPRESENTED BY AMOUNT IN ROW (9)
19.9%
Special Services Time...
Some get to ride the big bus and
some need to be on the short bus.
This is a pretty simple concept that some aren't getting...
215,000 shares plus the other institutional holdings of 44,112,139
would sum to more shares than banro has outstanding.
This argument is totally irrational.
Where do my 430,000 shares fit in.
and all the other small shareholders.
I might have trouble explaining this to my seven year old but most people on this page should be able to come up with realistic computations.
Nothing would make me happier than for Blackrock to buy up shares.
Perhaps that's how many shares they plan to buy next quarter and they let it slip out...
That would drive the price up to the multidollar range.
No.
They could just make a tender offer for every share $0.60 of 0.70 at this point.
Hopefully that will not happen because even at those levels banro is
way oversold.
Thanks for the feedback.
I'll take it into consideration.
TYPO
IT'S A TYPO
typo's do happen.
Blackrock can't own more shares than there are outstanding.
look at shares held in descending order at the bottom of page.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/baa/institutional-holdings
Well I hope the value them...
It's just a part of their total compensation.
Even if they filed for BK management would still have jobs they would just work for Brookfield.
When it comes to current ownership of shares I own more than all of the senior management individually.
@250,000
and my cost avg is 0.139
I'm just saying they can't be trusted.
They speak rather flippantly about dilution.
It's still an interesting risk-reward at these prices...that's why I'm holding out.
Banro had their back to the wall and did everything they could to prevent dilution.
To be fair I don't think there will be another dilution this year.
Accounts receivable is healthy relative to payables.
but they are not like the management at Banro.
THE BIG BREAK
Yes.
I think you are quite right.
I noticed that you could draw it back to 2012 as you mentioned but you need to adjust the angle slightly so I thought I'd keep it simple.
Earnings are the perfect catalyst for the breakout above the 200 day you've mentioned.
The deal being sighed will provide the next leg up or help it hold its gains for earnings creating a new trading level.
The point you made...
It will break the long standing patterns and the 200 day at the same time.
Precisely right!
Likely next week.
Perhaps even today.
Once it holds above those technical levels it may never again trade in the teens. Penny traders have the opportunity to buy a stock for the long term without having to worry about flipping it.
But opportunity will be gone soon. Or at least it will not be so cheep.
I think money managers will be allowed to allocate to Banro again after the deal closes. Banro went from 80% institutional ownership to 17%.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/baa/institutional-holdings
The price appreciation will be really cool to watch.
We own the company!!!
And this is viewed as the final financing.
This company had it's back to the wall and management deserves high marks for keeping dilution to an absolute minimum.
http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/banro-secures-financing-designed-to-make-it-fully-operational
Small Traders....
Question is at what price are you willing to sell back to the institutions.
Anyone who knows this company knows the probability of the deal with Gramercy closing is quite high.
As I said before I'm 430k shares long for the long term for this once in a life time opportunity to get a company with these resources.
That is already in production with two mines.
At pennies on the dollar.
If it ever breaks that triangle to the downside...
I'd be eating at the soup kitchen.
The deal with Gramercy will go through.
Money Managers are just taking a wait and see approach.
In six months to a year Banro will be back in the GDXJ
In five or six years they will be in the GDX.
correction
I meant to say...
but technicals sometimes have intrinsic reactions.
The pattern may be better interpreted as a Decending Triangle with the lower limit @ $0.12
Also form starting September 14, 2014 there is a definite wedge pattern that we have broken out of on Gramercy Day. Banro has held above the upper wedge bar consistently with the brief exceptions of March 10,12 & 13.
COMPRESSION TRIANGLE TRADE
I'm Long for the long term on fundamentals.
but technical are sometimes have intrinsic reactions.
Going back to April 10, 2014 there is a massive compression triangle that BAA is bumping up against.
pps hitting the upper barrier on March 2 (the Monday after the announced deal) and has been bumping along again since March 20th.
When it breaks and holds above for a week there may be no going back.
I'm long pal in a big way.
Would love to be a long term shareholder but management is only interested in getting paid.
I don't say that easily, flippantly.
Spoke with IR today about previous dilutions.
Basically they indicated that they could care less about shareholders.
I currently own more shares than the CEO.
And apparently Management isn't buying any even at this low price.
"It is clear, based on recent Supreme Court of Canada decisions, that a director’s fiduciary duty is owed to the corporation, not to the shareholders. As such, to the extent that the best interests of the corporation may diverge from what is in the best interests of the shareholders, the directors must act in the best interests of the corporation."
http://www.gowlings.com/KnowledgeCentre/article.asp?pubID=2458
Speculation here.
I think BAA will trade above its 200 day MA for most of the days in April.
True...but
They will just drill out more exploration territory.
Some miners operate with relativity short mine lives and drill out adding
resources and reserves as they go.
just like Baa has only explored a small fraction of their properties
GORO has only explored a minor fraction.
the list goes on to basically every miner except maybe some in South Africa have explored a good percentage of their holdings. Show me a junior miner or mid tier miner that has explored a high percentage of their property...
Once an economical deposit is found they delineate and mine it.
My point...
The question is who will be able to mine at the lowest All in sustaining prices.
BAA and Goro are good ones.
Called into I.R. they stated that earnings will be out today.
430 K Shares (long)
Cost avg. $0.1557
Holding for long term.
There last earnings were around $0.0145
So they had to round down last time.
This time I think they will be able to round up to $0.02