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Good morning EST, I'm looking forward to this week. Before I get started I wanted to wish everyone good luck.
Thought of the day. Whenever a day/swing trader only wants to talk big picture they don't have a clue what's going on short term but can't bring themselves to admit it.
Before I move on I want to make sure I'm clear on what I see from the metals. Right now we're in what is considered the most difficult part of the correction to predict but as long as the GDX remains over 17.90, GLD over 111.40, and silver over 15.80, I will continue to be looking higher towards the 2015 highs. Another thing that also strike me when looking at the charts is how GDX/GDXJ look closer to completing the current retrace that the actual metals do. I'm telling you guys this because I intend to believe that the start of any move higher will be the start of a significant bull run.
I'm becoming more and more confident with that 1170 call. There is a saying in technical circles that goes something like; “Put 10 EW technicians in a room and they will arrive at 10 different counts.” At times you have to thumb your nose and go with your own count but every now and then things are clear enough that there really isn't much disagreement. Right now I'm starting to see more and more traders starting to agree with me about gold moving back over $1300 but that where it gets kinda muddy. No matter I'm sticking with my original call. So while I see gold moving higher first we need to finish this pullback and that's what I'm going to concentrate on. In summary I expect a short term correction target is at 1,172. If I see another one of my counts becomes more probable I'll post my change in expectations.
I'm going to start this weeks update here in a few hours but before I get to that I'm going to post a few plays that warrant consideration. First I'm going to go back through last weeks individual stocks and see how they did. If any are worth keeping they'll be added to the ibox so we can start building a playlist. I'm not going to add any tickets to the playlist that hasn't been on the weekly watch list for at least two weeks. I'm not sure if we have any short players so right now I'm only looking long.
Wall Street may be stressing out, but that can create a window of opportunity for investors.
The stock market often takes a breather in the weeks leading up to earnings season, which kicks off April 8 with Alcoa (AA). Investors have anxieties until they start seeing the actual numbers.
Nervousness has mounted this week as investors brace for what could be the first year-over-year decline in profits since 2012 and worry about how expensive stocks have gotten.
But Goldman Sachs (GS) says now is the time to pounce, especially on American stocks laser-focused on returning cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends.
“Buyback window closure is a window of opportunity for investors,” Amanda Sneider, vice president of U.S. portfolio strategy at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note to clients She’s referring to the “blackout” period happening now where companies pause their share buyback programs ahead of earnings.
“Investors should view any market pressure as a buying opportunity,” she wrote.
Related: 11 stocks hedge funds and mutual funds love now
Focus on the cash: The investment bank is urging investors to buy its total cash return basket of 50 U.S. stocks like Apple (AAPL, Tech30), CVS (CVS), DirecTV (DTV) and FedEx (FDX) that have fat dividends and lucrative repurchase plans.
Dividends and buybacks are known as shareholder-friendly moves because they essentially reward investors for doing nothing other than simply holding onto the shares.
With companies sitting on more cash than ever before, it seems reasonable to bet more of these moves will be unveiled this earnings season. Goldman expects buybacks to increase 18% to $ 604 billion and dividends to grow 7% this year.
Related: American cash is flooding into European stocks
Despite recent turbulence, Goldman’s crystal ball is still forecasting the S&P 500 will rise to 2,150 by midyear (it’s currently around 2,060). That means it would have to bounce about 4% from current levels. But not all stocks will enjoy the same rally.
“We believe stocks with high total cash returns will outperform as S&P 500 firms grow buybacks and dividends,” Sneider wrote.
The stocks in Goldman’s total cash return basket offer double the cash yield of the median S&P stock and are an average of 13% cheaper.
Here are 19 selected stocks in Goldman’s total cash return basket:
1. Abbott Labs (ABT)
2. Anthem (ANTM)
3. Apple (AAPL, Tech30)
4. CBS (CBS)
5. Cigna (CI)
6. CVS (CVS)
7. DirecTv (DTV)
8. Express Scripts (ESRX)
9. FedEx (FDX)
10. Halliburton (HAL)
11. Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
12. Kroger (KR)
13. LyondellBasell (LYB)
14. Mondelez (MDLZ)
15. Northrop Grumman (NOC)
16. Pfizer (PFE)
17. Phillips 66 (PSX)
18. Time Warner (TWX) (owner of CNNMoney)
19. Travelers (TRV)
Good morning EST, just thought I'd see if anyone was around. I had a thought last night about looking for small caps to take advantage of when the Russell finds a bottom of this retrace. Could use some help finding a specific pattern that is easy to spot and easy to play. This is about as basic as it gets so if I have any takers let me know.
Just a little FYI: I'll be looking for any small caps that are either putting in new lows of are in the first retrace after making a new low. I've been waiting for this particular point to come around and we're very close to seeing a significant run from IWM. You can bet that any small cap with a crap will benifit from the move. I'll post my list over the weekend but I certainly be interested in hearing from you guys as well.
But I mean like what did they actually tell us today that we didn't already know. I don't need to be spoon "fed" to know that eventually rates will go higher. LOL
As for NUGT have have still not added but as soon as I do I'll post it. The GDX bottom may only be an a wave meaning we're in a b wave bounce with a c wave down to come. So I'm watching for something like a top around 19.50 and one last drop to 18.50ish for an entry. If I'm wrong I'll just buy the breakout over $20
tightening pace could speed up, slow or reverse" ... well, isn't that special.
That's about as helpful as saying "the equity markets may go up, down, or sideways, but they will in fact fluctuate".
Janet is getting the markets ready for a rate hike
Before I finish this I want to remind everyone that we're in the final stages of making a long term bottom and these things have a tendency to truncate. That's why we scale in this close to bottoms. However for a confirmed bottom to be in we'd need to see a sustained break over 2.733 but 2.714 would be the initial signal that a bottom could be in place.
At this point I don't have any reason to believe that a bottom was made today other than the fact we're only .05 away from the all time low. Keeping that in mind that even a touch of 2.568 for a DB completes this move and that could very well see that happen after hours and we could open on a gap for all I know.
As I said before I currently have 2.55-2.45 as the target for a bottom and honestly I'd like to see it as soon as possible. Any significant rise from here just prolongs the speculation about if a real bottom is in or not. So to answer your question bluntly, I just don't know but I do know we very close to finishing this off if we do it now and not move back up over $3 just to come back down one more time.
I came across this today and the count is very similar to mine however the 4th wave triangle is now invalidated. As you can see they we're also expecting a move higher in an e wave. Since that did not happen and we failed to make a new low it opens the door for a possible c wave higher up to about $3.08 to complete wave 4 before we come all the way back down in a 5th wave to finish off the move. So at this point I'm long and staying that way until I have a better idea of what they have in store for us next.
Good Luck
To get a better idea of what could happen look at last Aug-Oct as that is a very similar 4th wave triangle that actually completed. Even if this one is invalidated we could still get the c wave to finish off the 4th wave.
Nothing goes straight up. Pull backs are healthy.
I have no idea what Janet is going to say so be ready for just about anything.
You this is a good question so I'm gonna save it until after the close. I'm not trying to give you a short answer here but this questions brings up another one that should be answered at the same time. As far as the gap, it didn't sell off much at all so I wouldn't be too concerned but I'll talk more about it after the close when I have time.
Time to wake up boys and girls. ES is running out of real estate and needs to make a decision.
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The Fed is scheduled to speak at 3:45 this afternoon. Kinda strange she'd make an appearance 15 minutes before the markets close for the weekend.
It really depends on where this correction ends. I'm guessing it's gonna be below $33 at this point but until this bounce finds a top I can't really put a solid target on it.
UVXY is targeting 18.30 if today's low holds.
If TVIX hold today's low it's targeting $2.01.
For the most part but let me see if I can get us a little closer on that top number
ES 9 point drop in 9 minutes
We got a bottom in gold at 1192, that pretty close to my 1190 call.
I want to explain something here and hopefully everyone understands what I'm saying. IMO Nat Gas is within .20 of a long term bottom. I currently have $2.45 as the lowest possible low of all my counts. We are currently in the process of finishing the next to last leg lower so we should see a bounce which stays below 2.733 and on final leg lower. While 2.45 is the lowest number I expect to see once 2.567 is broken the pattern can be considered complete. Even though I expect NG to go a little lower my point is after 2.567 it can be considered complete and many times when we're looking at a long term bottom like we are here the last move truncates. So my entire point is we're very close to what I truly believe will end up being a long term bottom which we'll at least double from. So no matter what happens between now and then the last I'd want to be is short and if you already started scaling in than the risk reward ration is very much on our side IMO>
The wave iii high was close but the recent drop suggest that the move is more complicated when originally thought. We're still in a wave 2 with a wave 3 that'll take us much higher to come but the way the wave 2 completes is now up in the air.
IBB looks like the 4th wave bottom is in.
Added UGAZ at $2.28
EST we need to talk about my targets, I understand this is a communication issue on my part but from now on if you see "sustained break" it means we not only need to break the number but we need to stay above for a while. The 2056 on ES yesterday was a good example. If I just say "a break" of a certain number without the word sustained it means by even .001
We should bottom sometime between now and next Friday and yes we're going to be in a 3rd wave so it should move quickly.
Overnight ES moved down correctly so we have a couple of different options.
A sustained break over 2052 would be the first sign we're headed up to 2080
A failure to make a sustained break of 2052 would mean we're most likely headed down to 2020 with a very small outside chance we could break 2000. No matter where it ends it will be the start of a move higher that'll finally reach my 2150 area.
Support - 2035-2020
Resistance - 2052, 2058, 2075
Well let me say this, you're right about 12-18 months from now. However IMO now is not the time to be loading oil for the long run. Nat gas is a different story given we're maybe .20 from a long term bottom. Oil on the other hand has the potential to drop hard after this next high. That'll be when I'm loading with my investment account.
You remember this chart?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=111455687