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I can't disagree with you. Care to be more specific? I'd like to make it "right".
Thanks. It's all out there. This is still a risky play to be sure but IF they get FDA or patent on ELI-216...wow...could be $4 plus stock in 2-3 years.
Otherwise, even if they just keep slowly building the pipeline this stock can still easily double or triple to .30 - .40 in a year or two.
As I said in my spreadsheet...I put 9/1/2013 (2 years from now) as date we would ever see Lodrane revenue again...below, the portion in quotes is from Chris Dick in last CC.
last quarter Lodrane = approx 600,000…….."But, there are a bunch of steps that have to happen before these products can come back on the market. So, it will be a reasonable period of time."
See the below from the recent CC.
Last I remembered we had settled a lawsuit with TPN, they gave us $500,000 and we retained rights to manufacture Methadone. Now we have a contract manufacturing agreement with them. Talk about no hard feelings.....
Regarding the contract manufacturing, we expect, very soon, to begin contract manufacturing and packaging of the Pharma
Network's Methadone product. This is one of the short-term items that we can begin shortly in order to begin to reduce our
burn rate. Elite's also working on the transfer of 2 generic products for Mikah Pharma, products that would be distributed by
Activist.
Do you agree with the numbers and the timing?
I'm a complete amateur and would appreciate a sharp eye!
Spent some time trying to come up with realistic figures for sales...
See: https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgI9WYgqHk9mdEZWLTlVdmJSQzJsZmw0YkdGTFlYN0E&hl=en_US
Comments please!
That's the abuse resistant OXY (ELI-216), patent number 12/478,952
This looks to me like it will get approved faster than 24 hr...
The 24 hr is ELI-154...which is stuck at "non final rejection"
That's patent number 10/951,978
'PHARMACEUTICAL CONTRACT MANUFACTURING REVENUES WILL REACH $64.07BN IN 2016' SAYS LATEST VISIONGAIN'S REPORT
London, UK. 12 August 2011. A new report by Visiongain, a London-based business information company, predicts that global contract manufacturing revenues will reach $64.07bn in 2016. Manufacturing of finished dosage forms will drive revenue growth, with the market expected to grow with a CAGR of 8.7% between 2010 and 2016. From 2011 to 2021, revenues for this industry will more than double, according to Pharmaceutical Contract Manufacturing: World Market Outlook 2011-2021, published in August 2011.
API manufacturing remained the largest market sector in 2010, accounting for 71.1% of the total market. API manufacturers in India and China will achieve increasing demand for their services, visiongain’s market analysis shows. Demand for generic and highly potent APIs will drive growth in this market from 2011 to 2021.
Richard Lang, pharmaceutical industry analyst, said: “The global pharmaceutical contract manufacturing industry will benefit from a continued move to strategic outsourcing by the pharmaceutical industry. That industry will look more to long-term relationships with a few selected CMOs as the decade goes on. Becoming a full-service CMO or specialising in a niche area will best allow contract manufacturers to take advantage of these strategic partnerships.”
Between 2011 and 2021, demand for contract manufacturing services will continue to come from developed market-based pharmaceutical companies. The US accounted for 42.0% of market demand in 2010. This decade, pharmaceutical companies will outsource increasing amounts of manufacturing, as companies focus on activities such as R&D and marketing. Growth in the biotechnology market will also provide a great opportunity for contract manufacturing organisations (CMOs).
Visiongain forecasts that the overall pharmaceutical contract manufacturing market will grow steadily to 2021. Opportunities exist for CMOs to expand, buying out pharma’s facilities or acquiring smaller CMOs to become a “one-stop-shop” for outsourced development and manufacturing. Companies offering specialised manufacturing services will also benefit throughout the decade, the published report concludes. This new study adds to visiongain’s range of analytical reports covering the pharmaceutical outsourcing industry.
http://www.visiongain.com/Press_Release/60/'Pharmaceutical-Contract-Manufacturing-revenues-will-reach-64-07bn-in-2016'-says-latest-visiongain's-report
Series E preferred stock is the preferred issued to Epic. strike price of .0625
120,000,000 shares at .0625 = $7,500,000
Epic paid Elite $3,750,000 for that preferred stock.
So Epic could, in theory, convert the preferred to common right now, pay $7,500,000 for the conversion and if the stock holds at .0625 they could liquidate their common and double their investment. am I seeing that correctly?
If Jerry is right, that he does not think Epic will convert these shares, then what does that say about how Epic feels about Elite?
Remember of course that Epic is also developing 8 drugs w/ Elite.
g2nec:
In reply to private message (I can't reply to private message as a free member)
1) I cut and pasted from the CC transcript
2) I can't edit or delete the post
3) If you can as moderator, feel free. (and delete this too if u want!)
Hike
I thought you were concerned about Jerry Treppel selling. Jerry has nothing to w/ Trellus.
How do you know Jerry was a series D holder?
Thoughts/Comments? How much dilution are we really expecting? Is it ultimately good to convert preferred to common?
see below from CC:
David Silverman - Private Investor - Analyst
Hi, David Silverman, private investor. Gentlemen, my question is relative to the conversion of the preferred's. Are there any
restriction on the sale of these preferred's, or is it possible we could expect tens of millions of shares to be dumped on the
market?
Chris Dick - Elite Pharmaceuticals Inc - COO, President
Well, much like the D, they can choose to convert out into common and when they convert out, then they can choose to sell
or not sell the common and hold the common. Typically, for example, when the D did it they did sell when they were out there.
The B & C is not as large a number of shares. But, so, it's up to them and it really depends on how quickly they convert out too,
whether they come at one-time or over time when they do it.
And, I think, again, the good news for the common shareholders, granted there's more shares out there but when they get out
there, now they're in the class that you're in plus we're not paying dividends, quarterly dividends to them on an ongoing basis.
So, I do think ultimately it's good for the common shareholders to get the preferred shares converted now and done with
basically.
David Silverman - Private Investor - Analyst
Do you have an estimate of the number of common shares, let's say by the end of this fiscal year that will actually be outstanding?
Carter Ward - Elite Pharmaceuticals Inc - CFO
Yes, well, currently as of June 30, the B's and the C's represented roughly 4 million shares, common share equivalence, this is
as of June 30. And, the Series E was around 121 million or so common share equivalents.
Jerry Treppel - Elite Pharmaceuticals Inc - Chairman, CEO
It's not our expectation that the E's are going to--
Carter Ward - Elite Pharmaceuticals Inc - CFO
We're not expecting the E's to convert. And, also, this goes back to the proposal to increase the authorized shares. And, why it's
really important to point out that the increase in authorized shares is really just to accommodate what's already out there as
far as potential conversions of the preferred and the warrants being executed.
So, we need to have authorized available for that. And, I'd like to also note that the warrants that were issued to the Series E
shareholders are cash warrants. So, if they choose to execute those warrants, quite a bit of money would have to come into this
company, which would be a good thing.
All stocks need better performance.
What is dishonest about it?
poorme:
Did I say that? Did I say anything? I just posted a link. Make your own conclusions.
If you really read the article closely it is just more proof of drug shortages in general. Elite has an FDA and DEA approved manufacturing facility. Perhaps Elite is positioned as a supplier in a marketplace where supply is apparently needed.
Losing quarters is quite common for stocks on the OTC. It's why they are on the OTC. We buy them to get in early on a stock we feel has a good chance of excellent returns IN THE FUTURE. Elite is not going to be Pfizer by next Thursday.
Elite was well on the way to cash flow positive until the FDA decision on Lodrane (and 500 other drugs) set them back. The pipeline will be refilled soon enough and Lodrane will be back in a couple of years. I still have my shares.
If you don't believe any of this why don't you just sell and move on? I really don't need a devil's advocate.
I don't mind at all, however I'd feel better if we scrutinized it a bit. For many of the products I just conservatively stuck in $1,000,000/year for revenue. I'm sure they could be much higher. I meant this as a starting point for all of us. I'd like everyone to pick out one or two lines and dig deeper and come up with a defensible number. Can we do that?
OK..sent the following email to Dianne:
Hi Dianne!
I am an individual investor and Elite shareholder. Would it be possible to arrange a tour of Elite's facility in Northvale? I live nearby in Wyckoff, NJ.
I may invite one or two other shareholders along. Would love to see the new space at 135 Ludlow etc and perhaps meet Jerry, Chris or Carter.
Thanks and have a great weekend!
--------
If I get a thumbs up anybody else interested in joining me?
Also, the link I sent b4 about the CC is no longer valid so I uploaded it to my Google Docs account.
You can get it here:
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=true&srcid=0BwI9WYgqHk9mYmFlNDg2NzgtNTRkZS00NTYwLTlmZWYtMjA2ZTA2NzQwMGQ5&hl=en
So when are guys going to critique my spreadsheet?
I know it needs work!!
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgI9WYgqHk9mdGxZWXdNMlRoT2pfM0o4QVkxQ3BBLXc&hl=en_US
One of the CC participants...
David S. Altshuler, Ph.D.
Senior Vice President / Infrastructure Practice Leader
http://www.meketagroup.com/management-fund-review-general-consultants-program-monitoring.asp
OK, I started a spreadsheet that:
1) Attempts to identify all of the potential products/revenue streams in Elite's pipeline
2) Assigns a VERY CONSERVATIVE annual revenue figure
3) Estimates when that revenue stream might begin
It needs work and I know some things are way off. I want this to be a working doc that we all collaborate on.
Please review and suggest changes and improvements.
Once we have this about right we can then try to guess future share value a bit better.
It's on a Google Docs spreadsheet.
The spreadsheet can be viewed at:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgI9WYgqHk9mdGxZWXdNMlRoT2pfM0o4QVkxQ3BBLXc&hl=en_US
Have fun!
OK, I spent the money.
This link should work. Let me know if a problem.
http://s8p.alacrastore.com/tmp/Lo20110817143100002640303603724.pdf
They decided to not give away any more...
Can't get ANY L2 from them
http://www.otcmarkets.com/content/doc/market-data-fees.pdf
Guess just factoring in the sh** happens factor! (FDA, meteors, CEO rants etc)
Some speculation purely for entertainment ...
SHORT TERM (3 months) (remember those slides?)
Get cash flow back on track w/ Phentermine and contact work that will allow them to create bridge to MID TERM.
At least 1 more product announced (not monetized)
Stock price will fluctuate between .08 and .13/share.
Chances to flip a bit still there etc.
MID TERM (4-18 months)
At least 2 more products monetized by DEC 2011.
Naltraxone and Hydro monetized FEB 2012.
Lodrane revenue comes back DEC 2012.
Stock price in $.15 to .60 range
LONG TERM (18-36 months)
Patent approval (Abuse Resistant)ELI-216
Euro partner announced...what could they be "dancing" about?
ELI 216 (Abuse Resistant) Phase III trials begin
Stock price: $.70 to $2.00 range
Anybody else want to make predictions? (besides my eminent admittance to mental institution)
This is no different a stance from the previous annual statement.
Basically they are keeping what the got from the bonds and they won't pay back until either they are threatened with foreclosure or the debt payment is postponed. If they are threatened with foreclosure they go to Epic/Actavis/Hi-Tech/TPN for help. If the debt is postponed to 2013 the loan essentially becomes a longer term loan.
No reason not to take it to the brink.
They did this 2pm time back in the November 2010 CC.
Price was about .05, and it didn't move much at all.
The news in that CC was generally good.
I take it they have a dubious reputation?
Guess we all missed this article from yesterday:
http://www.hotstocked.com/article/15792/elite-pharmaceuticals-inc-otc-eltp-breaks.html
Did you read the report? All it mentions is Lodrane (and it incorrectly states they are still making it) and Methadone.
I'm criticizing the report, not Elite!
OK, I'm not bashing at all but what, in your opinion, in that report is "new"? I see no analysis. Just cut and pasted news, stats etc.
It might have brought Elite to some folks attention. I don't mind the free publicity but what exactly in the contents of that report would compel someone to invest?
Eh, pretty useless report. Just a way to get my email address!
Hard to argue with that. I'm just going to hold tight at this point.
My shares are mostly free.