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They're averaging up, hoping for a macro-market meltdown.
It's scabs like Soros etc., who run huge macro firms that short this name (they really just have a macro "quant" model that says what is "overvalued" according to the model, and they do not care about "events" may happen, as long as, according to their model (the numbers that are crunched) say that it is way overvalued - - and, if you simply just have a computer that is looking at Ariad's financials and it's market cap versus its revenues etc., hell yeah, it's EXTREMELY overvalued).
Russell Rebalance.
If anyone wants to make more out of it than that, knock yourselves out.
I'm not really interested in the 'end product'; but I think the equity ownership they have in the company provides a good asset for them shuold Bellicum be bought or IPO.
Clearly, Bellicum (likely) does not have the current funds to see this through the end without an exit strategy.
... I can't remember off the top of my head, but, did Provenge show any CR or many PRs in their large trial? (percentage wise), or was best response mainly stable disease. Funny how quickly I forget this stuff.
Ariad (AP1903) outlicensed compound
Ariad has been presenting this compound as their "4th" compound in recent presentations (shareholder meeting and analyst day). AP1903 is their "dimerizer" that is used in combination with two of Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (privately held): Phase 1/2 studies in both GVHD and Prostate Cancer (vaccine).
Ariad has an equity stake as well as royalties, etc. in Bellicum.
Here's a poster from ASCO re: BPX-101+AP1903
http://www.bellicum.com/images/stories/Content-Images/bellicumascoposter201111x17.pdf
(hat tip 'dougheuring' for the poster)
Just do a "search" on Bellicum on these boards.
It's been a long discussion for months now.
It's odd to me, however, that Berger is now including this compound as their 4th compound in their pipeline at investor presentations now.
Considering asset managers have known about the additions/deletions to the Russell for two weeks now, you don't think they have already made adjustments? You think they're waiting for the very last day?
How's that trade working out for them?
Kill me if I ever take advice from people sitting in their underwear giving advice from behind their computer on Twitter.
BTW, there's big(ger) volume interest in the CALLS today.
I don't invest or have any interest in pain medicine companies for the all the reasons and discussions about PTIE right now.
Personally, I have never had a single success in investing in these companies because the endpoints seem all too arbitrary and never really a true black versus white.
As far as I'm concerned, leave it to the big pharma guys to do with this type of medication. If you're a small-cap company trying to put together these types of drugs......GOOD LUCK. I just think the small bios don't have the management, or skillset, to put together robust trials or any real trial that doesn't get their balls busted by the FDA.
This is great. Thanks for posting this.
Highly recommend people look at the ASCO Poster Dough just posted.
Yes. It will.
Watch what happens if Libya is resolved. Oil will trade close to $77.
QE 2.5 is QE 3.0 "lite".
Not a full scale QE like the one they are finishing, but, if the economy doesn't shape up by end of July-August, they will do some more quantitative easing, that's almost guaranteed. It would be foolish for them to have spent the amount of money on QE 1 and 2, and take the peddle off the gas. Would be a huge waste of money and effort.
FWIW, Bill Gross actually "tweeted" yesterday he thinks the FED will hint of another round of QE at Jackson Hole in August.
LOL.
If it gets me to 30.00, I won't be sitting around waiting for the revenues to come in.
Banking relationships and analyst reports from the same firm are always a conflict of interest, even if they lie their asses off and say there is a chinese wall...which is utter bullchit.
i will say this, however. as i said in my post yesterday...what is ONTY worth if Stimuvax is successful and has the Provenge of Lung Cancer? IMO, $30.00 is not out of the question. It would put the value of the company at less than $1.5 billion for a company with a huge immunotherapy drug, a PI3k drug, and a next generation Stimuvax with ONT 10. The company has only around 45 million shares outstanding. It makes for a quick and wild ride in either direction. DNDN has over 100 million outstanding, as a comparator.
fwiw, i think releasing the SPR today was a smart move to really break the backs of the speculators. they did it at a point where oil was already weak, technically it looks much weaker now and they took all the momentum ou of the oil trade. screw the speculators.
eventually, i do think this helps the consumer and the economy and i think this summer the data will be better...if not, you can be guaranteed of QE 2.5.
You may also get a resolution of Greece which takes the headache out Greece out of the market for a few months at least..Euro strengthens, dollar stable or down.
If Libya gets resolved, thats more breaking the ack of high oil.
in all, what Im trying to say is that there is a LOT of bearishness priced into this market right now.
if we do get a solid stock market, ARIA, we can only hope, flys. As I said many months ago, if Ridaforolimus is successful, the shorts are phucked. because, barring a huge implosion of one otheir drugs, completely unforseen, the only asset managment firms stupid enough to short this are macro guys who dont care what Ariad is or does, they just look at the numbers and feel its overvalued. Most, if not all, shorts right now are underwater. Good. Screw em all.
it really depends on what the stock does versus what the macro market looks like. honestly, i dont really know at this point. the new ALK news as well as them highlighting AP1903 really puts a different spin on this company. they are really firing on all cylinders right now and have so many possible later stage things going on i truly believe this thing could seriously fetch a huge marketcap if someone was going to try and take it over. further, and just alone on th compounds, there really isnt a better smaller cap biotech out there... there just isnt.
i know that the GVHD and prostate results from Bellicum are Phase 1-2, but, the results were nevertheless, impressive to say the least. i never gave much consideration to AP1903 (other than what we have already talked about here), but, they highlighted the drug as essentially their fourth compound. i dont think any of the nitwit sellside analysts even knew it existed. its another huge asset for them.
i still think, technically, 14ish is an area of resistance, and i might sell there for a trade...im not concerned about long term vs short term gains, getting back involved. i dont know what to tell you other than its really more dependant at this point on what the SP and congress are doing to screw up the economy, than the fundamentals of Ariad....which again, are firing heavy right now.
its pretty impressive how everything is really coming together fairly rapidly. the stock could get crazy, we could only hope.
Berger asked about "how to fund the programs"..
Sounded like he 'beat around the bush'. Another underwritten financing is most definitely on the table. A little bit of stuttering going on there....
Thanks.
Pretty good stuff.
It is interesting that Berger is finally talking openly about AP1903. It's been a "hidden" asset to most of Wall Street (not to many of us). I wonder, 'why now'?
I don't follow Bellicum; I wonder if they are planning on IPO'ing, or merging with someone. Wonder how much they would be worth in a buyout?
I think it's an incredibly valuable asset to have - as immunotherapy (even though 1903 is an 'adjunct' to an immunotherapy process) is already becoming a huge and viable drug category.
BTW, I am pretty sure that AP1903-BPX-101 actually showed a COMPLETE RESPONSE in a patient at ASCO.
LOL. How much time did Berger give on 1903?
Worth a read (if you already haven't )
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDMwODQ3fENoaWxkSUQ9NDQ4NjI2fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1
*Ariad to file Japanese IND for Ponatinib in 2012 (partnership in '12?)
*Phase 1 ponatinib data at Fall 2011 conference (NOT Pace trial data)
*See Page 106 for Front-Line trial
I believe so, yes.
Would be pretty sweet if Ariad bought Bellicum, somehow.
Then we'd have an immunotherapuetic wholly-owned asset that could potentially compete with Provenge.
Now I will take my pure B.S. speculation hat off.
They probably have royalties, as well... I can't recall off the top of my head. It's a hidden asset for this company that no one even talks about...a small asset, but still an asset nonetheless.
Certainly WAYYYYYYYY more promising than those fking stupid stent partnerships which should just be altogether written off.
There is real value to it; the drug show promise. There isn't any real value to Ariad shareholders unless Bellicum IPOs, or they get bought out - Ariad has an equity stake in the company - those are the only terms of the deal they have spoken about.
I didn't hear anything, but i skipped through certain sections.
Screw Merck. Seriously. They suck big time as a partner.
Hedgehog news -
my comment: how freaking long is it goin to take Roche to give some results from the NCI collaboration in GDC449 in indications other than BCC?
AMBRIDGE, Mass., June 22, 2011 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Infinity Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq:INFI - News) today announced that it is expanding its clinical development program for IPI-926, a novel, oral small molecule that inhibits Smoothened, a key component of the Hedgehog pathway. As part of this expansion, Infinity plans to initiate an exploratory Phase 2 clinical trial in patients with myelofibrosis, an incurable malignancy of the bone marrow which is characterized by the replacement of normal bone marrow by fibrotic tissue and the production of blood cells in other organs, such as the spleen and liver.
The single-arm, Phase 2 trial is designed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of IPI-926 administered orally once daily in up to 45 patients with myelofibrosis. The primary endpoint of the trial is hematologic response rate. The trial is expected to begin in the third quarter of 2011.
"The important role of the Hedgehog pathway in pathogenic fibrosis leads us to believe that IPI-926 may have application across a range of malignancies, including pancreatic cancer and myelofibrosis, in which malignant cells create a dense, fibrotic, protective microenvironment via the Hedgehog pathway signaling to the stroma," stated Pedro Santabarbara, M.D., Ph.D., chief medical officer at Infinity. "While other agents in development for the treatment of myelofibrosis reduce spleen size, there is still a significant need for novel treatment options that can directly target the malignant fibrosis underlying this disease."
Infinity scientists and their academic collaborators have led the way in validating the role of Hedgehog pathway signaling in the tumor-stroma interaction in pancreatic cancer. Earlier this month, Infinity presented encouraging Phase 1b results for IPI-926 in combination with gemcitabine in patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer. Data from the study showed that IPI-926 was well tolerated and clinically active. Partial responses were observed in five out of 16 patients, for a 31 percent response rate.
Infinity continues to explore other potential indications for IPI-926 and plans to initiate multiple investigator-sponsored trials this year.
LOL, who do you think makes more money? The subscribers, or the owners who collect $450 for a yearly subscription?
I just think those trades work, ...until they dont. And then the game is over.
What was Biorunup.com's strategy for this stock?
I'm sure, when you have a trending macro market going in your favor, you feel like a genius because momentum is going in your favor and the "runup" into the decision date is simply a lemming trade because of the herd.
Does this strategy still work or has it run its course?
ONTY. Stimuvax is obviously extremely important to the company on a short term basis. However, if Stimuax proves successful, they have PX866 right behind it, and further, a potential huge asset in ONT10, their wholly-owned follow-on to Stimuvax. One of the main reasons, for me anyway, that I think this is entirely worth the gamble, is that Oncothyreon, still, has less than 45 million shares outstanding, and a fairly strong balance sheet. The 45 million shares out is pretty incredible when you think of the size and scope of the market they will be going after with Stimuvax, regardless of their royalty schedule.
At 20.00 per share, they have less than $1 billion market cap. At 10.00 share, its less than $500 million.
What is a company with the first potential "Provenge for Lung Cancer" worth; with two other drugs behind it?
I really believe if the macro market holds up, this pig could be setting up for a monster run here.
Yes, its a legitimate financing without warrants...from good firms.
Poor Rodman...I'm sure the were hoping they were going to be giving their clients an opportunity for a ton of warrants at a fifty percent discount to market.
yeah...
the FDA hates it.
I wouldnt make much of their price upgrade. These are also the same guys who did the recent underwriting. Banking and research dont mix well for fair and balanced research.
re: ONTY
Oncothyreon price target raised to $15 from $7 at Wedbush
Wedbush raised Oncothyreon's price target to $15 based on expected STIMUVAX royalty opportunities. Shares are Outperform rated.
-that's a simple note from flyonthewall.
My note: ONTY shares are still extremely hard to borrow. I see only 35,000 available to short. It makes for a very inefficient market, and that's fine with me, because I am long.
I don't know what the stock is going to do, but, it truly looks like it is setting up for a monster run.
Looks like they just reverse-merged with another company...
PARD halted.
Anyone still own that POS? I didn't even realize they hadn't run out of money yet.
EDIT:
Poniard Pharmaceuticals and ALLOZYNE Sign Definitive Merger Agreement
Market Wire
4:26 PM Eastern Daylight Time Jun 22, 2011
Poniard Pharmaceuticals
SAN FRANCISCO, CA and SEATTLE, WA, Jun 22 (Marketwire) --
Combined Company to Focus on Advancing ALLOZYNE's Clinical Stage
Product
Pipeline and Next Generation Biologics Platform; Will Seek
Partnership
for Picoplatin
Conference Call Scheduled for Today, June 22, at 5:00 PM Eastern Time
Poniard Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: PARD), a biopharmaceutical
company focused on innovative oncology therapies, today announced the
signing of a definitive merger agreement with ALLOZYNE, Inc., a privately
held biotechnology company focused on the development of bioconjugated
protein therapeutics. The merger transaction will bring together
ALLOZYNE's autoimmune disease product pipeline and proprietary protein
engineering platform and Poniard's oncology assets, including picoplatin,
a Phase III-ready chemotherapeutic agent. The combined company is
expected to focus its resources on advancing the ALLOZYNE products and
platforms, and will seek a partnership for the continued development of
picoplatin.
Under the terms of the merger agreement, Poniard will issue shares of its
common stock to ALLOZYNE stockholders based on an exchange ratio to be
determined prior to closing of the transaction. Under the exchange ratio
formula in the merger agreement, the former ALLOZYNE stockholders are
expected to own approximately 65 percent of the combined company, and the
former Poniard shareholders are expected to own approximately 35 percent
of the combined company, each on a fully diluted basis. The exchange
ratio has been calculated using the 5-day average closing sales price of
Poniard common stock prior to the merger announcement, or $0.2270 per
share. The exchange ratio is subject to adjustment as described in the
merger agreement. If the merger is consummated, the combined company will
be renamed ALLOZYNE, Inc. and will be based in Seattle.
The merger transaction has been approved by the boards of directors of
both companies and is currently anticipated to close during the second
half of 2011, subject to filing of a registration statement and proxy
statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), approval by
ALLOZYNE's and Poniard's respective stockholders, receipt of approval for
listing of the combined company's common stock on The NASDAQ Capital
Market, and other customary conditions of closing.
Following closing of the merger, Meenu Chhabra, President and CEO of
ALLOZYNE, will become President, CEO and a director of the combined
company. In addition to Ms. Chhabra, the board of directors of the
combined company is expected to consist of two current Poniard directors
(Ronald A. Martell and another individual to be selected by the Poniard
board), three current ALLOZYNE directors (Steven Gillis, Ph.D., Michael
Steinmetz, Ph.D. and Carl Weissman) and one new independent director
selected by a majority of the combined company's board.
"We view this merger as a critical step in our goal of maximizing
long-term value for our shareholders," said Ronald A. Martell, Chief
Executive Officer of Poniard. "A merger with ALLOZYNE represents a new
strategic direction for Poniard's shareholders, the risks of which, we
believe, are mitigated and upside driven by a promising clinical asset, a
pipeline of novel protein therapeutics, a proprietary biologic
therapeutic platform offering significant partnership opportunities, and
the potential of picoplatin."
Ms. Chhabra stated: "We believe that ALLOZYNE's proprietary platform may
enable us to enhance virtually any biologic therapeutic, including
therapeutic proteins and antibodies. Our lead product, AZ01, a
clinical-stage, PEGylated interferon ² for multiple sclerosis, could
replace existing weekly or twice-weekly interferon treatment with monthly
dosing and has the potential to address a significant unmet need in this
multi-billion dollar market. By merging with Poniard, we believe we can
access the public capital markets to accelerate our strategic plan. This
plan includes the advancement of AZ01 into Phase II study, the
advancement of AZ17, a bispecific antibody with broad potential in
autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, into the clinic, and the further
validation of our discovery platforms among potential partners."
Additional Information about the Proposed Transaction
The merger will take the form of a stock-for-stock merger intended to
qualify as a tax-free reorganization. Under the terms of the agreement,
all outstanding shares of ALLOZYNE common and preferred stock will be
exchanged for shares of Poniard common stock and all outstanding ALLOZYNE
options and warrants will be exchanged for options and warrants to
acquire Poniard common stock.
In connection with the merger, Bay City Capital LLC (BCC), a principal
shareholder of Poniard, has executed a binding commitment to loan Poniard
$2.4 million, on a nonrecourse basis prior to closing of the merger to
satisfy certain obligations under the merger agreement. The loan will
accrue interest at a rate of 18 percent per annum and will be secured by
a first priority security interest on all of Poniard's picoplatin assets.
The principal amount of the loan, all accrued interest thereon and all
other amounts due under the loan agreement must be repaid in full within
one year after the date of the loan.
Concurrent with execution of the merger agreement, holders of
approximately 21 percent of Poniard's common stock entered into
agreements to vote their Poniard shares in favor of the transaction and
refrain from selling any Poniard shares they hold for six months
following the closing of the transaction. In addition, stockholders
holding approximately 63 percent of ALLOZYNE's capital stock have entered
into similar agreements, whereby they have agreed to vote their ALLOZYNE
shares in favor of the merger and refrain from selling any of the Poniard
shares they receive in the merger for six months following the closing of
the transaction.
Additional information regarding the merger terms are set forth in
Poniard's current report on Form 8-K regarding the transaction that will
be filed with the SEC and which should be reviewed carefully in
conjunction with this press release.
Required Reverse Stock Split
As a condition to closing the merger, Poniard is required to obtain
approval to list the common stock of the combined company on The NASDAQ
Capital Market. Poniard will need to complete a reverse stock split,
subject to shareholder approval, to comply with the NASDAQ listing
requirements.
As previously announced, Poniard's 2011 Annual Meeting of Shareholders
will be reconvened at 9:00 AM, Pacific Time, on July 8, 2011, to vote on
a proposal to approve a reverse stock split at an exchange ratio of
between 1-for-15 and 1-for-25, as determined by its board of directors.
The reverse stock split proposal is described in detail in Poniard's
definitive proxy statement filed with the SEC on April 27, 2011. A copy
of the proxy statement can be found at www.sec.gov or is available from
Poniard's proxy solicitor, D.F. King & Co., Inc., at (800) 967-7635. In
addition, investors and security holders can obtain copies of the proxy
statement without charge from Poniard Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 750 Battery
Street, Suite 330, San Francisco, CA 94111, Attention: Investor
Relations, (650) 583-3774, or from www.poniard.com. All Poniard
shareholders who have not yet voted "FOR" the reverse split are urged to
contact D.F. King & Co. at (800) 967-7635 for assistance in voting their
shares on this important proposal.
Yes, "multiple talks with partners" and "enough cash runway to last at LEAST 12-18 months" are classic CEO B.S. and foretelling of a financing in the fold.