I am updating my staus.
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TMI Valuation... (Repost from Emerging )
Bare in mind the 10-Q and 8-K weren't that useful...
I'm working with the numbers in here...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-MediaExpress-Holdings-bw-500656408.html?x=0&.v=1
Also, the number of shares outstanding will vary... assuming the hit their targets (and if they don't the outstanding doesn't increase - if I understand correctly).
This seems to detail the targets - basically 15 million .
http://geoinvesting.com/companies/company.aspx?g=posts&t=1531
The current outstanding is 10M common and 8.1M warrants and they intend to add 15M to that over the next 2 years. So, 33.1M shares. Their target for this year is $42 million but if they get FY09 of $35 million (8M income in Q4, vs 11.6M in Q3 - so conservative) that's $1.07.
They are targting around 75% growth for the next two years. But say they get 30% growth. 30 times earnings is $32 target.
If we look at 2011 They are targeting $3.93 so a $39 share in 2011 if P/E 10.
So, I think a $20 target is doable... How long the TMI warrants are left to run is anyones guess but at $5.50 strike price then $14.50 is at least theortically possible **IF** they dont ask them to be excised. In the mean time I would be happy with $6
rich
CDBT.PK Now PINK - DANGER DANGER
CNOA It's true that the numbers are unusually down.
Dalian Huiming aquisition looked cheap - this year most of the revenues and earnings look due to it - according to the management.
I had three thoughts...
1 - (unlikely)
The Ankgang group has been put with Dalian Huiming into the Agricultural products - I wonder if they have been combined into one operation that they own 60% of?
2 - Possible
They describe the competition as "fierce" and they have reduced lower margin products. It's possible that some of the business, as it stands, isn't worth doing anymore and has been dropped.
3 - Big Fake
Quite possible but why the hell give yourself rubbish results? If your a big fake why not give steller results and start minting the shares out for whopping bounus?
I'm open for discussion on these matters...
rich
CNOA $0.70 bid yet $0.06 in Q... good grief
rich
Redemption note of 8.1M warrants would be ugly and 10 M outstanding - I'm hoping they are not in a rush - but it's a scenario to be aware of.
rich
TMI Valuation...
Bare in mind the 10-Q and 8-K weren't that useful...
I'm working with the numbers in here...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-MediaExpress-Holdings-bw-500656408.html?x=0&.v=1
Also, the number of shares outstanding will vary... assuming the hit their targets (and if they don't the outstanding doesn't increase - if I understand correctly).
This seems to detail the targets - basically 15 million .
http://geoinvesting.com/companies/company.aspx?g=posts&t=1531
The current outstanding is 10M common and 8.1M warrants and they intend to add 15M to that over the next 2 years. So, 33.1M shares. Their target for this year is $42 million but if they get FY09 of $35 million (8M income in Q4, vs 11.6M in Q3 - so conservative) that's $1.07.
They are targting around 75% growth for the next two years. But say they get 30% growth. 30 times earnings is $32 target.
If we look at 2011 They are targeting $3.93 so a $39 share in 2011 if P/E 10.
So, I think a $20 target is doable... How long the TMI warrants are left to run is anyones guess but at $5.50 strike price then $14.50 is at least theortically possible **IF** they dont ask them to be excised. In the mean time I would be happy with $6
rich
CNOA grew to a 10% position unfortuately.
I'm clever for not selling CPQQ position down... I'm dumb for not selling CNOA down.
rich
A trillion? Come now Drexion stop exaggerating you only have $200,000 worth
I just hope your a greedy person, otherwise you're going to retire and, hence, stop giving tips before I can make any real money.
I'm still expecting the stock price to crash at some point but until then I've got 4,000 warranty things.
Hmm... I wonder if they will offset my CNOA losses today? hmm...
rich
Yeah but who made the projections? Just some people who saw Y/Y comparisons and said.. well if we beat Q2 by 100% then we'll beat Q3 by 100%.... I was actually going to point out that this was fanciful but obviously I never did.
The management have a chance to PR this and explain... but I bet they don't. They should have PR'd previous results and if not given guidance at least shaped expectation - the lawsuit is given as the reason this didn't happen...
rich
Has anyone tried to / Can we excise the warrants yet? Or we still waiting for registration?
rich
CNOA - as Mr Bradford points out... they only own 60% of Dalian Huiming Industry - hence they only get 60% of the net income.
The question I have about the results is what happened to the rest of the business?
They did net income of 8,258,944 in Q3 last year but Dalian Huiming Industry was only bought in October (Q4's numbers).
The rice company ErMaPao Green Rice was sold in Q3 and it's revenues should have been only in discontinued.
Was the revenue normally done in Q3 pushed forward into Q2 & Q1? What happened to Ankang Dalian revenue is it all combined into a trading group which they only own 60% of?
Somewhat confused.... The daft thing is that they've done the same amount of earnings year to date. Given 2008 vs 2009 in general that would be a respectable result.
Course it's going to sell off today... as ever I guess don't belive the hype Until you can read a 10-Q.
rich
SGZH - 10Q (thermal?) coal price inc 17% Y/Y
Obv for this province's spot price so don't know if replicated through China... but surprised they are already ahead of last year.
Picked out by geoinvesting..
The average selling price per ton for the third quarter of 2009 was approximately $44.17, compared to the average selling price of approximately $37.61 per ton for the third quarter of 2008, an increase of 17%
http://geoinvesting.com/companies/sgzh_songzai_intl_holdings/research/geobargain_notes/0023127
rich
CNOA -
My understanding was they owned during 2008
Ankang Dalian - 60% Ownership
Dalian Huiming Industry
Sale ErMaPao Green Rice - sold Sept 08
In the numbers of last year... they didn't make a big deal about the rice company sales... showing how that group had become less. Almost to the point of irrelevance - even though it was a big amount in 2007. So I would want to know how much the rice company accounted for in Q3 08 - perhaps the selling of the company was added to the the numbers or something? Because clearly the net income is down...
Perhaps less to sell this year? Hmm... these soughts of things..
If they can explain what's going on... this stock goes up.... if they can't eplain things then it isn't. A nice PR first thing in the morning is what's needed.
rich
If ever a company needed some PR or CC this was it - clearly the investors expecations on seasonality are different from the reality.
That said... the PPS hasn't got out of step with the reality. This company could do somewhere between $0.18 - $0.21 - on what will be a $1 stock.
My guess: Tank tomorrow but recover before next quarters results?
rich
If ever a company needed some PR or CC this was it - clearly the investors expecations on seasonality are different from the reality.
That said... the PPS hasn't got out of step with the reality. This company could do somewhere between $0.18 - $0.21 - on what will be a $1 stock.
rich
CPQQ - no warrants exercised as of 30th Sep
Am I reading this right? Nothing exercised? The $1 price crash was recovering by 30th Sept and at $1.55. Price minimised around 21st Sept.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418134/000118518509001154/chinapower10q093009.htm
rich
Never thought about the float? My est 7.4 Million
All figures from latest 10-Q...
Outstanding 14,908,313
Insiders have 7,500,000
-----------------------
Float 7408313
------------------------
I looked in maffis and couldn't find a record for institutional buyers [2]. I couldn't see an SEC filing ... 13d or whatever they are.
Me and me dad have 19,000 and were not selling...
Also, noted that there are 4,456,700 unexercised warrants (not affect float unless excised)
So, 7389313 there my best estimate? Any better?
rich
[1] http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418134/000118518509001154/chinapower10q093009.htm
[2] http://www.mffais.com/mffais-search-cpqq.ob
Hi Nick
1) There is no limit of price I am aware of. What happens though is the price per share needs to be above $3-$4 share before a stock can uplist (depending on the exchange). So, what you'll see is the PPS is often the last thing stopping an uplist - so OTC never get to $10 because they move up the exchange before the PPS appreciates.
2) There are no pitfalls as such in being uplisted. Uplisting itself is a postive thing since more insituational investors are able to buy the stock. What can happen is a run up before the uplisting and a decline for a couple of days after uplisting (this is a tendency not an absolute) - also note the shares you buy on the OTC need to be registered to the AMEX or NAZ and this takes a couple of days - so you can't sell any shares you bought for a few days after uplisting.
I think CPQQ is one of the best stock available at this time. In the near term $2.50 - $2.80 ish is my target. However, if the management handle any required financing without a hitch (dilution is a weakpoint of Chinese firms) but people were talking about $5 M financing which shouldn't be a problem and they reafirm the earnings increase and timelines involved and they continue to execute... then it should have a great 2010.
rich
BSPM - FY EPS estimate $0.50 Thank CSP@$5.00
Estimate $0.13 Q4 - given significant inc in outlets that's do-able.
Anyone offering a coherent argument why they isn't a $5 share I would love to hear it. 5000 outlets end of year, 10,000 by end of 2010.
rich
SKBI - did you remove the positive none cash charge? Rebasing to 7,025,343 shares... I'm guessing Q4 of 49 cents... With EPS estimate of $1.44 on... a $10.40 share.
I'm thinking 2010 is going to be a good year for SKBI.
rich
NEP Any seasonality in oil service?
rich
2morrow@CHME - great results and some very interesting future growth - how do you see the financing? It's signficant... but I guess the rewards are significant too?
rich
SKBI - Looks On track
So, help me I've had 15 minutes without the 10-Q so dont sue if wrong
After share split 7,025,343
2008 (according to presentation) they did 6,698,977 (that's a 1 million more than offical) = 0.95
2009
The 5 million figure includes gain from warrants... I've removed this.. and taking a net income of $4,260,000. That gives $0.61 a share. Rebasing the year on the 7 million share count.. I'm getting $0.95 year to date. Q4 should be their second best quarter. So, were looking 25% ish Y/Y EPS growth... Ignoring any affect from vaccines etc...
So, $10.4 (with 2: 1 split)... $0.95 eps Year to date...
P/E < 10 once year numbers in... growth should be good with normal growth + vaccines in 2010.
PPS should go up from here in mid term... (god knows short term)
rich
Results to date: Best stocks for buy and holders?
From the results so far which ones have impressed you the most?
I'm guessing?
BSPM
CPQQ
TSTC
Any more to the list?
rich
Trader: do we know if they are using all the insentive shares immediately? Or is this over the next few years?
That would leave us assuming the low end of 23 million revenue... with net income around $5.6 Million FY.. with 7.2 million shares... EPS 0.78. So with P/E < 10. With flat growth... I can see nothing exciting happening to the stock?
Probably, 2010 should be better but without any positive guidance / uplisting talk... this is the high water mark for the stock until they start beating Y/Y earnings.
rich
It was always going to be a difficult comparison as, my understanding of this industry, is that it heavily relies about XMAS sales of electronic gadgests - I asked before if they sell to Chinese demoestic market which is more boyant... but I would guess it's being exported?
Assuming exporting then beating last years numbers is a good achievement. In the end it's P/E 5, when you strip out the cash, for goodness sake and if the recovery continues it's reasonable to expect revenues to increase next year. Even if you strip out the $4 million as a one time event it's been a good year given the tough conditions.
rich
-- 18% of Jinghe in Q4 2009 (I was surprised we still did this)
- someone listend to CC and said it was because they were going to ask to become consolidator on the region around that mine... clearly 8 mines aren't enough...
rich
I can't see why it's not a mainstay in most investors portfolios.
rich
Pappy... How are you estimating the growth going forward?
rich
None that I'm aware - Chinese won't do something that would affect capital movements without very good reasons.
Look at what happened to Argentiana when the government nationalised the pensions pot - all hell broke lose. Capital flew and share prices crashed - really not worth it.
Venezuala's oil industry is now creeky and less oil is being pumped each year because you'd have to be stupid to invest in a country which nationalises well run compaines.
Without capital companies lack investment and GDP can't grow - crashing exchanges isn't the way to go about this.
rich
Economist China's state-owned enterprises
In the northern province of Shanxi, private-sector managers have been complaining (again through the media) about a wave of nationalisation of small coal mines. The Shanxi government says this is for safety reasons. Private mine-owners call it a U-turn in policy, allowing state firms to grow at below-market cost.
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14859337
rich
PUDA Economist China's state-owned enterprises
In the northern province of Shanxi, private-sector managers have been complaining (again through the media) about a wave of nationalisation of small coal mines. The Shanxi government says this is for safety reasons. Private mine-owners call it a U-turn in policy, allowing state firms to grow at below-market cost.
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14859337
rich
CNOA - I don't think even the company knows. They are so often late that CSP has a trading strategy to play the situation.
In theory everyone should have handed in their reports by the 15th which is a Sunday. So expect lots of reports handed in on Monday.
CNOA would then have a further 2 weeks after that to get their filing in.
rich
GCHT - tips of blades go around at something like 170 MPH - they also can get ice the whole way up them... so it can fall off as one sheath. You can imagine ice + fast blade could make a nasty affect.
At the wind farm I visited they said that during icy weather your not allowed to stand under them..
It's also a fact the UFO's are attracted to 3 bladed turbines rather than two for all the obvious reasons so I don't need to go into it
rich
CBPO - abh3vt thinks there might be warrant charges... dunno if that might cause confusion?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=43538641
rich
(long CBPO)
Last post of the day... must look at upgrading...
CPQQ YOu don't think the section Trader pulled out was suggesting they were building with cashflow?
I have 1 more post remaining today... so I will use it judiciously!
rich
CPQQ YOu might be on to something there trader
They said their cash was sufficient for next 12 months...
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418134/000118518509001154/chinapower10q093009.htm
Liquidity and Capital Resources
We have funded our recent operations mainly through cash generated from operations. We believe our existing cash and cash equivalents will be sufficient to maintain our operations at present level for at least the next twelve months. The following table is the summary of our liquidity and capital resources for the reported periods:
That would be really good! Don't they noramlly whinge in that bit if they need dilution?
rich
BSPM - difficult to say. Clearly it's undervalued... P/E 10 would be $5 ish and of course it's growing very quickly - it just doesn't seem like it's growing at first glance.
It might take 3 months but there's nothing absolute given valuation. Anyway, lets make it more exciting than dead money... lets' call it hidden money
rich
Good goodness yes... We'll get enough grief anyway for even liking the stock! I am only interested that they can do that amount! To me it's all about new orders....
That's why in the FUD I refuse to give guidance... it's all about getting more orders.
rich
Yes, I can understand your concern. It's strange that they said they can do it in 5 - 6 months but then give guidance for 88 Million in 2010 rather than 128...
There's no point rushing unless they get more orders I guess.
rich