You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you get want you need. Rolling Stones
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I would expect the shipyard where the AA is now located to announce the sailaway when it occurs. Since there has been no announcement the AA is still there. Bugging Dan K will not change anything.
On the sub lease deep water rig market:
There is only about a total of 30 of these type of rigs.
These rigs are located all over the world and maybe 2 or 3 in the GOG. The ones in the GOG are likely firmly contracted for and will likely stay where they are needed and presently in full use. Any other rigs would have to travel a good distance to get to the GOG. If one of these becomes available, one would have to factor in the cost of moving to (and possible back to the original location) into the determination of whether it is economically viable to "sublease" this rig. Moving costs are extremely high at $400-$600,000 per day rig rental rate. This down time could cost close to $3,000,000 (back and forth travel time of 30 days each way). So for a short term sublease (less than one year), this is a BIG expense and must be factored in. Unless the company subleasing the rig can at least break even on the sublease, they will likely tough it out and keep the rig in at their own site and continue to drill even though it may not be that cost effective.
At the poker table now, we have Grandeur trying to cut a "deal" on a rig while those that have the rig are trying to make economic sense in subleasing the rig. Who will pay for the transportation costs is why any deal is at a stalemate. Those that need the rigs have much more to lose than those that have the rigs.
I still believe (along with Strass) that Grandeur has overrated his position since his cards are not as strong as he thinks they are.
Enough said!
midtier, I sure hope there will be an ROO announcement, but I will repeat that the deep water rig market remains tight. The largest supplier of deep water drills, Transocean continues to publically state that deep water rigs are fully 100% booked for the future. I do not think Transocean can make those kind of statements if they are not true.
IMO, J C Granduer (Addax) thinks things will change in his favor, but IMO he is wrong and the deep rig owners are calling his bluff. He will lose that poker hand and ERHC will lose along with him. Granduer MUST pony up the going rate or will lose the opportunity and have to wait for the AA. The wild card in this whole poker stand off, is Petrobraz. Hopefully, Petrobraz has the weakest hand and will have to fold and therefore release some of the rigs it controls to the open market.
DeGen
Ps: My tag line below has been the same for months, and we still do not have the answer and the tag line remains VERY appropriate.
Good post mid tier, I too am VERY happy no acquisition was ever finalized. SEO our guardian angel.
Strass as well makes a lot of sense about Addax may be misunderstanding the deep water drill market. It looks like all of those rigs are still in high usage unless Petrobra starts to release its hold on all the rigs it controls. Therefore, no ROO unless that happens.
I am very surprised that there is not much more excitement about the Addax cc on Monday. Although I personally am looking forward to "good" news I will not be able to listen to it live or even a replay until I return to the country. I hope those that listen in will give their best "play by play" account. TIA.
King, the problem is there are different views to the items you indicate are problems for ERHC.
1. investigations - I believe they are not a factor as they are "moribund" according to the attorney handling the matter. That is how the majority of those here feel and have posted in the past.
2. Possible attacks on drilling rig 2 miles off shore. IMO, any chance of attack is remote. Actually, extremely improbable.
3. Corruption - There is little if any chance the international treaties that were signed can be overturned. The players in the game will not let it happen.
You have your point of view on these issues but most here disagree as your position (or opinion) has little merit. But you can believe what you want. My question is, if you believe what you write, why in heaven's name would you EVER invest in ERHC?
Anyone planning to attend the RedChip presentation on Wed? Yankemike has indicated he might attend. I hope others will also attend.
I to understand the long term views of most posters here that have remained the same over the years. What I question is why one would change their views on "events and situations" that have remained the same for years with nothing changing.
Someone that brings up the same "old" stuff to bash ERHC right after they sell may be trying to drive the price down so they can pick up cheap shares. This is "calculated" bashing and clearly indicates an "ulterior motive". These same negative items are NEVER posted by these bashers when they own shares. Humm?
The negative things on Star's list on the post I am replying to have been around for years (except the recent Block 5/6 news) so why is this brought up right after Star's announced he has just sold. I wonder what has changed Star's viewpoint? I feel obligated to point out when a poster is posting (bashing) only for personal gain. This response needs to be heard by all here to give proper perspective to King's post. Keeping the negative post and not allowing rebuttal to such a post is not fair. Remove them both or keep them both is the fair thing to do.
Krom, if the drilling rights to Blocks 2,3 or 4 were interfered with by STP, Nigeria or the JDZ, I would venture to say the operators would fight the legal battle. It would be hard to imagine Sinopec, Addax or Anadarko rights being challenged or even harder to imagine those companies being pushed around by Nigeria, STP or JDZ. If this very long short did occur, all legal costs would "carried" by the operators, NOT ERHC. So why would you even bring this up?
DeGen
However, you would not say "the" Sinopec.
As far as legal expenses for Blk 5 & 6, my guess the expenses would be minimal. Although normally I do not like to see any increase in legal expenses, these expenses appear necessary to protect our rights. In other words, IMO, it is well worth it to spend this money to protect these rights. There is a lot at stake and not that much to spend to protect it.
If the company's management line about having inside information and not being permitted under SEC rules to buy or sell the company's stock is true, then no corporate officials anywhere would ever be able to do it. The company's position makes no sense since corporate officials are buying and selling their company shares everyday. Is ERHC special for some reason?
Not so sure that ~$20,000 worth of ERHE shares it that meaningful to those on the "inside" of ERHC. They probably "soak" the company for that much in "expenses" each year.
Boston, will you continue your negative posts about ERHC and try to beat down the price until it is low enough for you to buy? Or will you just suck it up and buy now believing the ROO will be announced any day now and get in before the big jump? Greed sometimes backfires.
midtieroil, if the proof is in the pudding, will the pudding be served at Thanksgiving day dinner, or will the pudding be served at Christmas dinner, or will the pudding be served at Easter dinner?
Boston, I do not think your your facts on the price or assumption that everyone is excited is correct. You state:
This has gone from .18 to .20 and everyone is excited.
As already pointed out the "bottom" was 16.5 and the present price is 22.5. That's a 36% increase. But what is more important, it appears the continual down tread the share price has been in since mid September has reached "the bottom" and has not bounced off that bottom.
As far as "everyone being excited" I have not noticed any great exhuberance of many posters here. It appears more of a relief that the share price has stopped falling.
As far as your comments on "the silliness surrounding the rumors of the ROO". Why is that silly? The ROO will be the biggest thing to effect this stock since the signing of the contracts. There are "rumors" because nothing has been "signed" yet, but Addax continues to report they are continuing to seek a ROO. You either have facts or rumors, at this stage in time there are no facts, so the "rumors" continue. Addax has not indicated in any way shape or form that they are no longer seeking a ROO, so an ROO can be announced at any time. Again, explain why is this silly?
Then you say "how much time is spend here?" I ask you, why are you spending time here? Are you intested in the company? Are you looking to invest in the company? Or are you just here to try to put a negative slant on things?
Hopefully we have seen the last of the horrific teens. Now let's see how fast we can get through the horrible twenties and the terrible thirties, the forgettable forties and into the nifty fifties (where I will be even but not selling).
Can the share price do all of this in one week?
Yes it can if Oily is right and an ROO (or two) is announced Nov 3.
Semi OT: Deep Water Rig News (not ROO)
Note Rig Rate is $641 -652 K per day (if my math is right) over the 5 year contract. Who says rig rates are going down? This contract says otherwise! ADDAX may be wrong is thinking they are going to get a "better" deal by waiting for rates to go down.
Transocean Inc. Announces Five-Year Contract for Previously Announced Ultra-Deepwater Drillship
11:57a ET October 29, 2008 (GlobeNewswire)
Transocean Inc. (NYSE:RIG) today announced that a five-year contract has been executed with a client for a previously announced ultra-deepwater newbuild drillship equipped for drilling in up to 10,000 feet of water depth, upgradable to 12,000 feet of water depth with additional equipment, and constructing wells up to 40,000 feet total depth. The rig is listed in the Transocean Fleet Update Report dated August 5, 2008, along with nine other announced ultra-deepwater newbuild units, as the "HHI Drillship TBN (to be named)."
The five-year drilling contract is expected to commence in the fourth quarter of 2010, following shipyard construction. The contract commencement date is contingent on vendor performance and other factors. Contracted revenues related to the five-year contract term are approximately $1.17 billion to $1.19 billion, depending on countries of operation during the contract term. Estimated contract revenues represent the maximum amount of revenues that may be earned, excluding revenues for cost escalations, customer reimbursed equipment and miscellaneous adjustments.
Construction of the unnamed dynamically positioned, double-hull drillship is scheduled to take place at the Hyundai Heavy Industries shipyard in Ulsan, South Korea, with the first steel cutting scheduled in January 2009. The estimated total capital expenditure for the drillship, is approximately $740 million, excluding customer reimbursed equipment and capitalized interest. The rig design is an enhanced version of Transocean's C.R. Luigs and Jack Ryan-class drill ship designs. It will feature Transocean's patented dual-activity drilling technology, allowing for parallel drilling operations designed to save time and money in deepwater well construction, compared with conventional rigs. It will also feature a third load path through a 165-metric-ton Active Heave Compensating Crane for subsea construction activity. The rig will also have expanded completion capabilities and a variable load of 20,000 metric tons.
First, a BIG welcome back to BalanceBuilder. He was sorely missed. Even though I have little faith in most of his speculation regarding the buy in/out, it is very enjoyable to read his thoughts. Glad to have you back BB.
Then as far an ROO and deep water rigs. If I am not mistaken there are only about 20 or so rigs in the world that qualify as deep water rigs. How difficult could it be to keep a close eye on ALL of these rigs. Twenty phone calls everyday shouldn't take more than 2-3 hours. I would hope someone at ADDAX or EHRC would be doing just that. I would be MAKING THE CALLS to the rig owners, not waiting for rig owners to call me.
Great HDY interview, for a moment there I thought it was about ERHC!!
The best quote:
"The lower the price of oil, the easier it is to secure some of the critical resources necessary to do the exploration work, such as drilling rigs. Moreover, we can secure the resources at lower costs."
The $64,000 question is: Will there be a Rig of Oportunity or do we have to wait for the AA begin drilling On Oct 1, 2009?
If I recall correctly from my engineering days (over 20 yes ago) there was gov't publication that published future contracts that were open to the public to bid on. I am not sure if the Africagold info fits into this criteria but I would guess a large order like this would be publicized in some trade or govt announcement.
if the AA is to drill in the 2H 2009 when would Addax start ordering rig/pipe supplies? Would that be right about now with the required ~9 month lead time? The most likely set of circumstances is that the Africagold "information" is for the AA drilling next year. This is not earth shattering news, only Addax properly preparing for a rig they are VERY sure will be coming late next year.
Some rig news, don't know how it affects the JKZ rig situation
Northern Offshore Announces Termination of Agreements to Acquire Two North Sea Semisubmersible Drilling Rigs
7:30a ET October 28, 2008 (PR NewsWire)
Northern Offshore, Ltd. (Oslo Bors: NOF.OL) today announced that it had advised Transocean, Inc. (NYSE: RIG) that two wholly owned subsidiaries of Northern Offshore are terminating their previously announced agreements to acquire two North Sea semisubmersible drilling rigs from affiliates of Transocean, Inc. The acquisition of these rigs by Northern Offshore affiliates is contingent upon its ability to obtain Northern Offshore's lender consents to the acquisition and related financing. Northern Offshore has been unable to obtain the consent of its lenders on terms acceptable to Northern Offshore and has advised Transocean of this development.
While Northern Offshore and Transocean continue to discuss alternative structures which could result in Northern Offshore's acquisition of one or both of these rigs, there is no assurance that these discussions will lead to an agreement which will permit Northern Offshore to acquire these rigs on acceptable terms.
Marion Woolie, Northern Offshore President and CEO, said "We are extremely disappointed that Northern Offshore affiliates will not be able to conclude this acquisition given the recent uncertainties in the global credit markets and the addition of the related financial obligations for these two semisubmersible rigs."
Northern Offshore, Ltd. is a Bermuda holding company which operates offshore oil and gas production and drilling vessels deployed around the world. The Company's recently updated fleet consists of one floating production facility and five drilling units (a drillship, a semisubmersible and three jackup drilling rigs). The Northern Offshore fleet operates in various markets including the North Sea, the Indian Ocean, offshore Russia and Southeast Asia. More information on Northern Offshore, Ltd. may be found by visiting the Company's website at http://www.northernoffshorelimited.com.
For further information please contact: Michael Dawson
713-739-7686
SOURCE Northern Offshore, Ltd.
http://www.northernoffshorelimited.com
Africagold, a most sincere thanks for the information you have and are providing. You have provided a much needed breath of life into this war torn board. The kind of information you are providing the just the kind of information this board needs to realize that many things are going on behind the scenes that are not being disclosed by the operators. Again, thanks for your updates and please continue to keep IHUB informed.
I have been negative about the pie in the sky "acquisition" since it was first mentioned. However, I see no need to "trim" the company's meager workforce at the moment. Bovell is a finance guy with vast experience. The company needs experience like his even though the company may not be ready (or qualify) for an acquisition at present. The company has no CFO and Bovell could be doing some of those duties as well. Everyone knows getting good help is difficult and an expensive process. Any short term cost savings would likely be eaten up in the future when the company is doing some of things it says it will.
Slide show / Dubai presentation
The slide show appears to be a shortened / rehash of past presentations. It appeared to be condensed with the majority of the slides concentrating on the JDZ assets with only a very short discussion on future "acquisitions". Actually it was not even a discussion of the possible acquisitions, just a overview of future plans. I did not see the mention of the AIM listing and was very happy about David eliminating that hype. It appears the company listened to many of those here (especially me) who told them that the presentation should concentrate mainly on the oil rights and not the future pie in the sky plans. I really appreciate the fact that the presentation followed that advice.
Anyone that was expecting some BIG news to come out during the presentation will be disappointed. This may be the reason why the share price has dropped to 17!
The $64,000 question is: Will there be a Rig of Oportunity or do we have to wait for the AA begin drilling On Oct 1, 2009?
What I am worried about is the share price. It makes no sense for the under twenty cents. In fact if you ask me it makes no sense for the share price to be under fifty cents. There is just too much value in the companies JDZ assets and too much of a likelihood a great deal of oil being found once drilling gets underway. The share price is very close to a 3-5 year low and EHRC is so much closer to drilling now than at any other time. Isn't the likelihood of drilling in Q1 by one of the JDZ's operators very high? Not just Addax's elusive ROO but Anadarko or possibly Sinopec. Then there is the AA to drill late 2009 (or possibly early 2010). The drilling is not that far off but the share price remains under twenty cents.
I realize that all of Wall St is in the toilet and most of my other stocks are approaching the same percentage of loss as ERHC. I also realize that the value of ERHC is based on the price of oil and that the price of oil has fallen dramatically over the past months. However, the JDZ was bid and planned was oil prices were even lower than they are today. So why is the price under twenty cents? I guess when the tide is falling and falling fast, all ships go lower with the tide. Hopefully, the tide has finished falling on Wall Street and soon the tide will start coming back in and all ships will rise with the tide.
Hopefully, the Dubai event will give a needed boost to the share price next week.
I not sure exactly what "rigs" are vulnerable to such speed boat attacks. Are these rigs located 200 miles off shore? If so, what is the travel time to get there? If you go full out at 40mph, say 5 hours in the open sea (and 5 hours back, if you are still alive). Ten hours of fuel, unless you plan to refuel at the rig (LOL). You need food and water plus weapons. How many in your crew for this attack? At least four big strong men? Is this boat getting crowded or overweight? Maybe it will take a little longer than expected if the seas are rough. Now what about being detected? How about boarding the rig or do you think you can just drive up to the "dock" and then attack the crew.
This attack plan makes no sense to me and pulling it off does not appear possible. Would you risk your life to attack a rig 200 miles away that does not even belong completely to Nigeria? Maybe there are some easier targets to attack?
I admit I have little small craft off shore experience, but attacking a rig 200 miles off shore just makes no sense to me. Now maybe if you can convince four not too bright Nigerian rebels this plan will work, you just may pull it off.
Until then and until the rig is ACTUALLY THERE I am not worried in the least about this "remote possibily" of a rig attack.
The $64,000 question is: Will there be a Rig of Oportunity or do we have to wait for the AA begin drilling On Oct 1, 2009?
I would hope the company holds on tight to that 35mil and not piss it away by trying to "help out" some cash strapped company by letting anyone get a hold of the company's cash. Cash is king right now and if the company's cash disappears, there is no way the company will be able to survive. The company is is no position to get a loan and no one wants to have the company issue more shares to get cash.
I just wish the company would sit tight on what they have and wait for the drilling which is not more than a about a year away, worst case scenario (the AA).
I just wish the ROO would be announced before the EOY.
Troy, have a great vacation and please stay away from the internet for the week, it does a world of good. Believe me the IHUB world will continue on without you and when you return you can straighten us all out. Maybe the Dubai event will push the sp back in the the 30's, but I will be happy if the falling shareprice just stops going down.
Have fun with the family!
The $64,000 question is: Will there be a Rig of Oportunity or do we have to wait for the AA begin drilling On Oct 1, 2009?
erdo, Thx for the link and I was on a cruise ship enjoying the Caribbean.
I have been away for over a week and have just caught up a little on the many, many posts. I read about the Dubai conference on the board, but the date and time are not shown on the EHRC site. When is the conference? TIA
Ps: Dan K, why is the conference not shown on the EHRC site?
Let's all understand who would know more about ROOs than ANYONE in the world. Would that person be "in touch" with all of the few companies that control the 30 or so deep water drillships? How many companies could that be? Maybe five or at the most ten. Who would be calling those five companies on a daily basis if not a few times a day? Would his first name be Claude (or someone who works for Claude).
These are million dollar transactions (day rate of ~$400K) and any owner of one of these deep water rigs does not want the rig sitting idol for even one day. So if a rig owner is informed or sees in advance that his rig maybe become available, who do you think he is going to call? Claude or Strass?
So who should we trust with information about the ROO situation? Claude or Strass?
The level II quotes are showing the first ask a $0.28 (NITE) then a big jump to $0.32 (HILL). The bid is $0.275, Vol ~92K
Just maybe after the shares NITE has at 28 are sold the ask will go up to 32 and the share price could return to the thirties. We can always hope!
At the conference I sure hope ERHC changes its presentation from the ones they used in the past. They should stress the oil blocks they control (beat the oil drum) and NOT spend all (or ANY) of their time on their "subsidiary" dreams. If they repeated the facts about the billion barrels of oil in the JDZ over and over for 15 minutes, maybe it will sink in that the company has a pretty nice percentage in a major oil find that should be "discovered" in no more then one year.
"Yes, billions &billions of oil, is what I said." said Peter
"Yes, billions &billions of oil, is what I said." said Peter
"Yes, billions &billions of oil, is what I said." said Peter
"Yes, billions &billions of oil, is what I said." said Peter
"Yes, billions &billions of oil, is what I said." said Peter
"Yes, billions &billions of oil, is what I said." said Peter
"Yes, billions &billions of oil, is what I said." said Peter
over and over again until the question & answer period, then:
Does anyone have any questions about how much oil there is?
walldog, I am in full agreement about your thoughts on what should have been said at the road show and that the "subsidiary" will never come about. These views may be unpopular (as in not liked) but many here agree with you and me. I too have expressed this opinion in the past but have always hoped that Bovell will show us the money but still believe it will NEVER happen.
Opus-X, IMO the ROO will be announced before your Oct 22 guess. I would think it is much more likely to be announced during the first week of October. I welcome you to Vegas to celebrate the ROO, but do not think the share price will be $5 at that point in time. I will be happy with sixty cents!
Also anyone else in Vegas the Oct 22 weekend can join Opus and me at our mini get together (I'm buying). Email me at rcparker99@aol.com if you can come. Also, thanks Troy for the backup message from Opus, but I guess it got by. I sure hope you can come to Vegas some day (especially before the girls are 21, that's too far away)
If the ROO is under contract to Anadarko and Anadarko will be using a drill in their block (3?) next year, isn't it logical that the ROO would be going to the GOG in any event. Either go now or go next year. If this is the case, the rig crew should have already known about relocating the rig to GOG. Even if the crew did not know about the future move to GOG, one would think Anadarko had this trip to GOG already in THEIR plans, whether the rig crew was consulted or not. Leaving for the GOG 9-12 months earlier then previously planned should be no biggie and therefore not holdup the ROO. All of this, of course, is based that the assumption the ROO is under contract to Anadarko and the one Addax "almost" has under contract it one and the same rig.
If this is the case I would guess ADDAX should announce the ROO in a week or two.
Can anyone listen to the presentation and post at the same time? How about those on the east side of the pond (Umbra)?
OK, free dinner in Vegas on me for anyone who posts a summary of the ADDAX presentation before the market opens. Can be used anytime in the next year when you (and spouse) are in Vegas or at the Vegas party whenever that is. References, YankeMike or Tapco have enjoyed this offer.
Addax Petroleum Announces London Capital Markets Day
Calgary, Alberta, September 19th, 2008 – Addax Petroleum Corporation (TSX: AXC and LSE: AXC) (“Addax Petroleum” or the “Corporation”) will host a management presentation to financial analysts and investors on Wednesday, September 24, 2008 in London, U.K. The Corporation’s senior management team, including Mr. Jean Claude Gandur, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. James Pearce, Chief Operating Officer, Mr. Michael Ebsary, Chief Financial Officer, and Mr. Jeff Schrull, General Manager Exploration, will discuss the Corporation’s most recent operating results and expectations regarding future operations.
Conference call / webcast details:
Date: Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Time: 10:00 a.m. London, U.K. time
To listen to the conference call, please call one of the following:
Toll-free (Canada): 1 866 629 2713
Toll-free (U.S): 1 866 629 2704
Toll-free (U.K.): 0800 634 5205
Local UK: 0208 817 9301
Toll-free (Switzerland): 0800 000 720
International: +44 208 817 9301
A replay of the conference call will be available until Thursday, October 16, 2008 using the passcode 1397836# at the following:
U.K.: 0207 769 6425
International: +44 207 769 6425 or +353 1 436 4267
A live webcast of the presentation will be available via the following link:
http://www.axisto.com/webcasting/investis/addax-petroleum/addax-petroleum-capital-markets-day/index.htm
The Capital Markets Day presentation materials will be available on the Corporation’s website at www.addaxpetroleum.com.
Dadd, I agree with you wholeheartedly, anyone sitting on the fence about buying today or still waiting for a lower price is insane. ROO news could break any day now and the share price should jump at a dime or two. Those trying to save a penny or two to get in cheaper are doing it at the wrong time. Our long awaited but unexpected ROO may just pop up this week or next. What I can not understand is those here that are aware of THIS ROO SITUATION are NOT buying and pushing up the price this week and next week until the ROO is actually announced. My confidence has gone from 75% last week to 90% this week and most here are even MORE confident than that. So I cannot explain why the share price sits in the mid thirties. I know many here have bought and bought some more, in toooooo much and are just either already overloaded like myself or just plain gun shy.
For Exceo, I hope the SP reaches his wife's mark in the sand of a buck by January, but I am pretty confident it will once the drill hits the ocean floor. For the bashers who continue to try to beat the price down to try to get cheaper shares, I can only feel sorry for as they will be missing the opportunity of a lifetime.
Well whose going to be our ADDAZ "ears" very early tomorrow AM? Or did you already go to sleep to wake up early?