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Actually CAK just dove big time. Had on strong watch still, but removed today.
Independent Gold miners moved to strong watch;
AUQ
NG
SVLC
GORO
A short post on OTC game stock volumes.
You need to pay attention to the volume with sub/micro pennies. You normally want to have $50k average daily volume interest, for the darkside to have interest and create a manipulated run to trade. Most of the time the attention pop is used to create that level of cash interest before any OTC game begins. Basically they are drawing in enough cash interest to allow them to get their funding cash back with a good ROI.
My rule of thumb is 100 mil for a triple zero stock, 10 mil for a double and 1 mil for a single zero stock. Figuring the price is some where in the mid range of each level.
Example; today and most of the time, Your stock has under 2 mil a day. That's less then $1,600 cash traded. And on one of the special pop days, it may get up to $30k traded. Big guys don't make money playing with stocks without more cash involved. Because they usually fund between $100k to $1 mil and need to get that back in a 3 to 5 day or week or two manipulated run.
It's all in the numbers.
Rule #1 for all trading.;
Never chase a running stock!
Strictly for bi-polar hedge fund managers. 98% institutional owned, with 2 week price swings like that, in 2014. I wouldn't recommend it for retail.
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AMG
When bid/ask spread opens up large, it normally is to slow or stop the price direction.
There are a hundred reasons to sell, but only 1 reason to buy.
What/who is Lympro?
Pennylanders heads up on OOIL
Found this one this afternoon. The breakout flag chart caught my eye and the share structure research confirmed possible Darkside funding play.
OTC disclosers show 6 mil of the 79 mil O/S shares could be for sale. The CEO giving himself a 51% voting rights "series A share" poison pill against take over in June, indicates he expects continued LARGE funding coming.
If my gum shoe guess is correct. The recent chart, could be the start of a prolonged climb, not quick run.
Plan the trades and trade the plans.
Humm I see the short interest update hasn't shown up yet. Was due the 24th after 4pm. Curious where it will be.
WSTI A fools dream.
Rule #1 for all trading.;
Never chase a running stock!
LOL This is a running stock with many gaps below. STAY AWAY !!! IMO
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WSTI&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p08630945504
ANV watch the shorts lesson rap up.
EOD looking more like the short fight won again. Sold the bid (as I said they probably are doing to hold it back) And 20 minutes before close all the days price increase is gone. Back to 3.77
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ANV&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p09867998809
Ps; short report should show up after 4 pm today, if interested. I expect just enough change to cover the hold it back (sell the bid) fight. As the volumes and price didn't reflect any squeeze. My guess is 10 to 15% lower from the 35% short interest may be gone. We'll see. Was 34 mil short.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ANV&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p09867998809
I'm not playing ANV, but trying to offer a lesson on how large short interest over 10% can effect a stocks breakout run.
Two things happen when you see this.
1 a true retail mindset change and they support the run more then the shorts. Causing a short squeeze and acceleration of the run.
2 a fake change in sentiment and the shorts don't dump large, but fight the price increase, buy selling at bid. Holding the run back.
Trade plan was;
Flag target 2.30 and entry 2.10. Only had 10% gain planned. So 1/2 the gain, was an acceptable loss of 5%. Tightened to 3% and that's what I lost today.
Plan the trade and trade the plan. Monitor and adjust only down, as needed.
With the gap fill days volume, it looks like too many are taking profits. And the shorts can feed the bid all day with 35% of the O/S short. Tomorrow the 24th, we'll see what happened to the 35% shorts. As the update report is due to release.
From my volume eval; I don't think the majority have left yet. And IMO, them fighting a climb is probably what's holding it back. Lots of power to stop/stall price increase with over 10% of the OS, let alone 35%.
OK of the 10 independent Oil & Gas watch list. I got 3 and the rest are pretty much dead. And only 1 week of my 2 weeks trade cycle over. So I checked the next hot sector. Seems IRAN isn't going to push oil higher, for now.
Checked independent Gold miners and found plenty running under $5.
Watching them for flag retraces and continuation entry now.
Of these 20, AKG BRG TRX KGC on strong watch.
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=141&f=ind_gold,sh_price_u5&o=-perf1w
Would love to see more volume interest. This one could bite us on the ass. ADX above 50 strong move coming. Hope it's up, with increasing volume. But far from sure. I Tight trailing stopped it.
ANV could continue now that that gap got filled. But the gap fill volume is scary. Just like the gap up was. Sentiment doesn't look very good for continuation. IMO I'd tighten up what ever trailing stop you have.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ANV&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p47656553062
I've closed;
XCO 5%
EOX 7%
JOEZ 5%
UNGS 50%
In
SARA @ 2.10 for 2.40
Loss
AMBS 10%
The word I'd use for both is Boring.
TRTC
As I'm sure you know after lurking, OTC stocks don't get shorted on mass. It's too expensive. What actually happens is after the bought attention pop, you'll get timed PRs, to keep the retail herds interest. Until the VC and management are ready to run it. In between, it's just the emotion ebb and flow.
Or Sentiment change!
And on the OTC sentiment changes as soon as emotion leaves. Bang retrace price swings. Not shorting. It was coming down 2 days on weak interest volume. Time or help.
It usually takes a few weeks to a month or so, after the attention pop, before you see any manipulated run. So there's time. And the chart is showing exactly that. Once the volume and price returned to per attention pop so quick. Management had a timed PR on their desk to release to win back the lost herd emotion, back into the coral. Looks like once the trail bosses are ready, they should drive the herd to market. Check share structure for large amounts on new shares issued for funding or debit conversion. To confirm my guess.
I'd have this one on weekly watch, but because of the price range have a standing order high in case things happen between weekly check. Say 75 cents.
If it climbs toward/close to 62 cent resistance. You should move it to strong watch and lower entry to break just above that level. Say 65.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TRTC&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p96169812550
BONU
Increasing A/S doesn't mean price will climb to sell it. Usually the opposite. Because treasury shares are sold in offering to VC's for funding, off market. And in order for the funders to get max gain, they like and get price pull downs to the price level they want to fund at.
An increase in A/S is a positive though. As it signals the company is after more funding !!! The question is will they get it and if so how long before the new funding shares hit the OTC market in a manipulated run for profits.
Way early on this one, could take 3 months or more, normally. Your just seeing the price pull down now. Weekly watch for attention pop. As that's the next step in the OTC game.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BONU&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p50115888476
SRPT yea bio's are not my cup of tea. SRPT's financials look good, but management performance poor. No divvy, no earning or projected earning in the next 5 years. I can never understand why institutional gets involved with the hit or miss sector. But since most Bio's have large institutional ownership, that's why they pop and dive so LARGE, so fast on news. Lots of trading money, not investment money, flows in and out on the next hot/cold thing.
Guess the huge Nov 2013 dive was the FDA not approving the first try at eteplirsen. As the PR announcing a second try caused the April pop. PR announcing they bought a factory, I'm sure helped. But as always; No BIG news is bad news, in the sector. No matter how well or poorly the company is doing on their existing pipeline rev's. It's always the next big thing, which drives price.. And the sector is made up of mainly big money swing traders, not investors. A high speculation sector.
Right now shorts are @ 30% and that's scary. No matter how strongly the company is putting on the "It's in the bag, face." with their factory deal. Big money is betting against pipeline resulting from approval happening to produce rev's next year.
Good luck. It's defiantly a swing trade, as all Bio's.
QTMM
Ps;
TA
ADX says strong move coming (above 50) and support indicators fell to null. (StochRSI & CMF) With price holding extended (2 weeks) at high. Entry/exit (DMI & 5,10,20 MAs) holding at BE IN.
The phycology says; doubt increasing. Needs catalyst.
Chart
High tight flag pattern
Sentiment says; wants higher, but can't get what's wanted.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QTMM&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p59321979462
But the management did release a PR to stop any retrace. That's a positive in the OTC game. Management PR timed support, right after a down day.
The game is still afoot Watson.
QTMM
Say it again. On the OTC, trade retail reaction to the story. Not the story.
And after todays emotion couldn't/didn't keep it going. My entry point for flag break would now be 30 cents for safely. Seems there is no big guy support feeding any continuation. (selling into the run for profits) So odds are either there are no more VC shares for sale , or their not ready to manipulate continuation yet.
Still a strong watch only and now with higher entry point. Flag target .41, still plenty of gain with safe entry @ .30.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QTMM&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p59321979462
TEU chart
It may have a 14% divvy, but has a very small institutional position, 7%. Thus the divvy is not a factor to expect inflow support for any comeback. Plus it was halved the last Q of 2013 and has not had a announcement for 2014. (LATE)
http://www.dividendinvestor.com/historical.php?no=210299
I'd lower my target and exit/re-enter like a single bottom play with this one. Because historically island reversal bottoms tend to last a long time; till the company re-establishes faith to climb to gap down bottom. Yes it's fairly common to establish a larger bottom channel. (which becomes tradable) But without some major news event and long term financial/fundamental progress. That larger channel usually holds below gap area.
IMO you'll see the un-tradable channel, become a tradable channel from 1.50 to 1.70. If 1.70 breaks after a stall. then re-enter for 1.90. On the single bottom bounce play. Other wise expect 1.50 bottom and re-entry on bounce to 1.70 again. Basically; Trade the new larger channel.
ANV
Yea the back story has straightened itself out some, with the SEC going after 1 man and 2 months of shareholder suit news. The news it's main producing mine is back online is pushing price. Add the credit line increased. Plus it is still a takeover candidate and the 35% shorts are in trouble. IMO
New short report due out the 24th and with an average daily volume of 2.5 mil. The recent volume pops to 5 mil (ave) and price increases, aren't clearing out the shorts very fast yet. 13 days + worth @ 34 mil short.
This is a fight I think the shorts will eventually lose. And with the single bottom bounce chart, IMO it's worth trading in & out on it's way up.
As I said before. If 4 bucks is hit, 4.50 is pretty much a given and if 4.50 breaks after a stall. I see 6.50 top resistance very possible. With the gaps above and slow short cover. To support price climb.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=103163690&txt2find=
Ps; don't like todays gap open. But 3.50 stall exit point way textbook. 3.75 to 4.50 in play.
By the way; when I posted the heads up on SARA also included ENSV. Which had the exactly same circumstances.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ENSV&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p50242957055
LOL my buy order just closed @ 3:21 on AMBS @ .115 on strong increasing volume in the afternoon.
Many times you see large accumulations prior to actual runs. I say it's company insiders and friends which have relationships with funders. Now this doesn't happen at all, Insider Trading, but it does many times.
Actually large TA support indicator conflicts or volume increases/spikes without price. Is the main signal to strong watch a watch. Just as important as an attention pop.
I don't trade the story. I trade retail reaction to it. Could care less about $20 mil or investment funds return goal. Just watch for exhaustion in candles or volume during the run.
Welcome.
in fine-tuning my trading style
Experience I guess. 2 weeks of new true value, after such a large price pop usually slowly walks down, before challenging top resistance again. IMO there was time, because I've seen the high and tight flag pattern before.
I read the sentiment that way. And when the price tried to break top resistance yesterday. It was the first time the sentiment seemed to change after two weeks of null. So my read on the play went from expecting a slow walk down, before continuation, to possible positive sentiment change, without.
Any other combinations of chart and TA, then what I saw there and I would have done exactly what you mentioned. Standing buy order at $2.00 Also the conflict in the support indicators CMF & stochRSI backed up an extended accumulation period, in my mind.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SARA&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p33262606841
Your question does my heart good. Great question, showing some are actually following my bull chit and learning to apply the lessons. This one was an unusual one and you correctly called me on it. Should have been strong watch from the start per chart. It could have broken out any day. Personal experience caused me to post on watch and I had on an alert @ 2 bucks. Instead of open buy order.
But on strong watch now. That requires volume and higher entry price. Now 2.10. Yes I'll get a smaller pies of any pie. But safety after the fake spike without volume behind it. Only thing change is my sentiment about when, not pattern working. Ps; like today hanging up there even without volume. Sentiment now, followers later. We'll see!
You have a strong point about the size of the gap in SRPT. And because of special circumstances, I see no reason that gap can't have a partial fill. As the chart pattern prior was a mix of down trend and rectangle channel. Giving support levels above the channel broken from. With this breakaway gap.
Never believe the PR story, trade retail reaction to it !
The #1 Rule for trading the OTC.
Bags of worthless owned shares start on verge and potential beliefs @ the OTC.
AMBS
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMBS&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p99141587597
Really should check for funding. Not sure I like day traders around at this point of the climb. Usually see them in month 4 of a 3 month Temp Job run. And while the patterns look the same. It has only lasted 1 1/2 months. Concern on an accelerated Temp Job. Think I'll raise entry to .115 for safety.
Completely different asset classes. Completely different exchanges. Completely different ownership motivation. Both have completely different pros & cons. And generally the commodities futures market is opposite to the equities market.
So you really can't/shouldn't try to compare pros & cons of the two, as much as each individually, if that makes sense.
In the commodities futures market commercial traders and speculators trade RISK. At the equities market money managers and retail trade numerous things. So I guess the pro vs con between the two markets is the equity market requires more knowledge. But the commodities futures market requires more patience.
You lock in price with the commodities market and you lock in profits at the equities market. Both have price fluctuations and charts which can be used to swing trade their market. So swing trading has little differences. But investing has big differences.
TSLA chart
230; a reversal point, stronger then 240; 5 candle. Should stall and breath. Plus big money hates emotion as much as I. So while they let it sit there, they will be evaluation charging technology release benefits for Tesla. IMO 230 will be the decision point for continuation. My plan would be take profits and watch for continuation. In & out as volume runs and stalls at resistance levels. If 230 continues I see no reason 260 can't eventually fall. It is a celeb. Logic doesn't always count for them.
SARA & ENSV in the O&G sector, just tried to breakout.
Strong watch.
Your in a celeb stock which just had a major announcement. I'd be more interested in the volume more then anything chart wise.
We're talking big guy money managers deciding to enter. As volume slows, the big money wave will subside, stock will stall, retrace some and wait for the next big thing. IMO volume will tell you which resistance level big money feels is enough is enough.
Volume and resistance levels, sentiment just reversed. They are your tells. IMO
SRPT
Over all falling volume interest. 4 week Descending triangle and HUGE gap below.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SRPT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p94032858007
I'd plan more on $28 support & pattern target to be any retrace stall point. Personally wouldn't plan a trade on picking a bottom. But people and trade styles are different. At any rate keep an eye on $28 as the bottom. You could luck out with some momo to 27 and close though.
Tesla’s supercharging stations—given that Elon Musk is sharing Tesla’s patented technologies—is driving the interest.
Next resistances, 230, 245 & 260. I'd swing them in & out on the way up from the single bottom bounce play. Today broke the strongest resistance @ 220.
Watch the video and learn when to fold them. On a single bottom bounce play.
Ps; Should also TRY to plan the trade.