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CSAXF - I'm not in this one, but all that really matters to me at this point is the $5 strike. So as of Tuesday's close, it's .20 away from intrinsic (discounting time value and spreads).
CSAXF transaction went thru - congrats tika! there's not much intrinsic value in the warrants to make up, but there's still enough (~33%) to make for a nice gain.
Meanwhile, one that I'm loaded in, AXG-WT got hit today. Hope that's not a portend of things to come.
I just received it myself, and I agree that it's telling a good story. Of course the skeptic in me wonders why they would do such a mailer. I cannot remember ever getting one like this for other stocks.
StevenRisk, I have not seen what you're referring to. Would you be able to post the crux of it?
Thx.
CO chart is very choppy and I'm not seeing a trend. I'm still very surprised that Rodman hasn't come out with coverage and a target.
I currently have no position, and will consider re-entry after earnings (just for safety reasons).
Two homerun plays 2 weeks away...
We're now at the 2 week countdown point (2/12 being the big vote day) for two SPAC deals that are having shareholder votes.
The underlying symbols are AXG and CFQCF.OB, but the warrants are the play worth mentioning here on ZCC.
As of this post, AXG-WT = .28 and CFQWF.OB = 1.21
As mentioned, both votes happen to be occurring on 2/12, and I have high confidence (~90%) that both will go thru.
Scenario for AXG-WT: The terms of the deal are such that, at current price for AXG, the warrants should head towards their fair-value of about .62 if the vote is successful. If one does not sell his warrants, one will end up with a prorated portion of allocated stock in the new company (Select Staffing). That could end up being a good thing.
Scenario for CFQWF: These warrants are a play on the intrinsic value, but there are other subtle catalysts as well. At the trust-per-share price of $8, the CFQWF warrants have an intrinsic value (not considering the discount due to vote risk) of $3. So if the deal goes thru, the warrants should make up that vote risk and head straight towards intrinsic. That would be a move from $1.21 to ~$3. But there are similarities to this deal and CCME's deal, and the merger partner (China Wowjoint) looks to be a great acquisition. So the underlying post-merger shares of China Wowjoint could indeed trade higher than $8, and that would pull the warrants right along. Additionally, one of the sneaky catalysts is that the shares are on the .OB and so ultimately (per their filings), Wowjoint is going to uplist.
THE RISK FOR BOTH OF THESE: Even though I don't think either will be voted down, that possibility exists, and the warrants would almost surely end up near worthless.
Heavy volume on the warrants today with some major blocks, but not a commensurate upside move. T-14 days and counting!
drex, re: CFQWF - your warning is welcomed and appreciated. The recent warrant action has me a tad worried, but not enough to not be a buyer.
I can't find many other risk/returns where my profit expectation is so high.
Even at an only 80% likelihood of successful vote, we have the following calculation:
Assumption - post-successful vote warrant value of $3 (reasonable expectation for ultimate warrant price; quite conservative actually, but it's a round number)
(.8 * $3) + (.2 * $0) = $2.40.
($2.40 - $1.10)/1.10 = $1.30/$1.10 =~ 118% return in around 2 weeks.
Jman, re: CFQWF - that's an interesting swap; not sure I agree with the premise, but I agree that the NEP calls you bought are probably a little "safer". When it comes down to an expected return calculation though, my $ is on CFQWF
CFQWF - loading more of these juicy warrants today. As long as they don't modify the warrant terms too badly, and as long as the vote is successful on 2/12, these will be gold (esp in this market). Of course there are still risks that either or both will not happen, but not expecting it...
Bob, that makes sense! So she's funding your trading habit eh? ;^)
CIHD News...Primarily China fertilizer play, but now China cardio play as well...nice!
Changda International Holdings, Inc. (CIHD-OTC-BB) Appointed by the Provincial Government of Shandong, China as Founder of an R&D Center for Pharmaceutical Building Blocks Used in the Production of Cardiovascular Medication
Last update: 1/27/2010 11:28:00 AM
WEIFANG, China, Jan 27, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Changda International Holdings Inc., the Weifang based specialty Chemicals manufacturer has been appointed by the Provincial Government of Shandong as the founder of an R&D Centre for pharmaceutical building blocks suitable for cardiovascular medications. Cardiovascular diseases are among the top three causes of death in china for men and women. "This is significant news for our company and further emphasizes our continued efforts to broaden our product range, applications and move up the value chain," said QinRan Zhu, CEO of the company. "We have always been firm believers in the pharmaceutical sector in China. Since we ventured into this market we have progressed rapidly, as this development is only one of a few in the recent past," added HuaRan Zhu, Executive Director and Head of the Chemical Division. The Shandong government only grants this status for a limited number of projects, each with a special field and only leading enterprises are granted access to this program.
About Changda International Holdings, Inc.
(CIHD) Changda International Holdings, Inc., through its wholly owned subsidiaries, Weifang Changda Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. and Weifang Changda Fertilizer Co., Ltd., produces compound fertilizers and snow melting agents in China. Changda is one of the leading compound fertilizer producers in Shandong Province, China, and is led by an experienced management team committed to diversifying the Company's product offering and delivering tailored services to its customers.
News...Primarily China fertilizer play, but now China cardio play as well...nice!
Changda International Holdings, Inc. (CIHD-OTC-BB) Appointed by the Provincial Government of Shandong, China as Founder of an R&D Center for Pharmaceutical Building Blocks Used in the Production of Cardiovascular MedicationLast update: 1/27/2010 11:28:00 AM
WEIFANG, China, Jan 27, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Changda International Holdings Inc., the Weifang based specialty Chemicals manufacturer has been appointed by the Provincial Government of Shandong as the founder of an R&D Centre for pharmaceutical building blocks suitable for cardiovascular medications. Cardiovascular diseases are among the top three causes of death in china for men and women. "This is significant news for our company and further emphasizes our continued efforts to broaden our product range, applications and move up the value chain," said QinRan Zhu, CEO of the company. "We have always been firm believers in the pharmaceutical sector in China. Since we ventured into this market we have progressed rapidly, as this development is only one of a few in the recent past," added HuaRan Zhu, Executive Director and Head of the Chemical Division. The Shandong government only grants this status for a limited number of projects, each with a special field and only leading enterprises are granted access to this program. About Changda International Holdings, Inc. (CIHD) Changda International Holdings, Inc., through its wholly owned subsidiaries, Weifang Changda Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. and Weifang Changda Fertilizer Co., Ltd., produces compound fertilizers and snow melting agents in China. Changda is one of the leading compound fertilizer producers in Shandong Province, China, and is led by an experienced management team committed to diversifying the Company's product offering and delivering tailored services to its customers.
XODGE starting to remind me of CDBT - I'm going to have to think twice about even putting in a stink bid...
The CSAXF warrants don't have the intrinsic value that I normally look for, but they could turn out ok if the common were to rise upon the vote being consummated.
CIHD gets a writeup on seeking alpha:
http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/pssa/SIG=1342cr7d9/*http%3A//seekingalpha.com/article/184720-changda-can-help-investors-profit-from-the-chinese-winter?source=yahoo
Changda International (CIHD.OB) is a Weifang-based specialty chemicals producer. Apart from offering a wide array of organic and inorganic fertilizers, Changda is, according to the company, the largest producer of snow melting agent in China.
This is significant. This winter is especially snowy, especially in northeastern China, where Changda is based. Already, the company announced several weeks ago that "its orders for snow melt agent from the Chinese Government bodies for the year 2009 have already doubled as of December 2009, compared to the year 2008." The thing is, winter has only begun. This bodes well for the company.
That is not all. The company has developed a very interesting system of distributing its fertilizers through mail order by partnering with China Post. Again, this has resulted in a significant uptick in sales - 15% increase in demand, according to a December 2009 report. Through its collaboration with China Post, Changda is able to fully penetrate its core Shandong Province market via nearly 80,000 access points.
Valuation
Current Price: $2.85
52-Week Range: $2.25-$4.75
EPS: (2009) $0.27* (2010) $0.39*
P/E: (2009) 10.6x (2010) 7.3x
PEG: 0.24*
* Based on C.O.P. estimates. Does not take into account dilution from proposed offering.
Evaluation
The company currently has an S-1 filing outstanding, so it would be interesting to see what actually happens. The intent is to sell 10.35 million units, each comprised of a common share and a warrant, hopefully to raise $20 million. Even though this is priced at a significant discount to current market, it is not clear how much appetite there is for such an offering. We shall have to wait and see. Perhaps 4Q 2009 results (and more likely Q1 2010, given the winter period) will help the company sell its story.
CIHD gets a writeup on seeking alpha:
http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/pssa/SIG=1342cr7d9/*http%3A//seekingalpha.com/article/184720-changda-can-help-investors-profit-from-the-chinese-winter?source=yahoo
Changda International (CIHD.OB) is a Weifang-based specialty chemicals producer. Apart from offering a wide array of organic and inorganic fertilizers, Changda is, according to the company, the largest producer of snow melting agent in China.
This is significant. This winter is especially snowy, especially in northeastern China, where Changda is based. Already, the company announced several weeks ago that "its orders for snow melt agent from the Chinese Government bodies for the year 2009 have already doubled as of December 2009, compared to the year 2008." The thing is, winter has only begun. This bodes well for the company.
That is not all. The company has developed a very interesting system of distributing its fertilizers through mail order by partnering with China Post. Again, this has resulted in a significant uptick in sales - 15% increase in demand, according to a December 2009 report. Through its collaboration with China Post, Changda is able to fully penetrate its core Shandong Province market via nearly 80,000 access points.
Valuation
Current Price: $2.85
52-Week Range: $2.25-$4.75
EPS: (2009) $0.27* (2010) $0.39*
P/E: (2009) 10.6x (2010) 7.3x
PEG: 0.24*
* Based on C.O.P. estimates. Does not take into account dilution from proposed offering.
Evaluation
The company currently has an S-1 filing outstanding, so it would be interesting to see what actually happens. The intent is to sell 10.35 million units, each comprised of a common share and a warrant, hopefully to raise $20 million. Even though this is priced at a significant discount to current market, it is not clear how much appetite there is for such an offering. We shall have to wait and see. Perhaps 4Q 2009 results (and more likely Q1 2010, given the winter period) will help the company sell its story.
Atlas Acquisition Holdings Corp. Sets Date for Special Meetings of Stockholders and Warrantholders Regarding Proposed Business Combination With Select Staffing
HOBE SOUND, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Atlas Acquisition Holdings Corp. (“Atlas”) (NYSE AMEX:AXG) (NYSE AMEX:AXG.U) (NYSE AMEX:AXG.WT) today announced that it will hold a special meeting of stockholders to approve, among other proposals, a business combination with Koosharem Corporation, a California corporation doing business as Select Staffing, and a special meeting of warrantholders to approve, among other things, the conversion of all of its outstanding warrants into 1,677,000 shares of its common stock. The special meeting of warrantholders will be held at 10:00 a.m., Eastern time, and the special meeting of stockholders will be held at 10:30 a.m., Eastern time, both on February 12, 2010, at the offices of Greenberg Traurig, LLP, Atlas’ counsel, at The MetLife Building, 200 Park Avenue, New York, New York 10166. Atlas stockholders and warrantholders of record as of the close of business on January 15, 2010 are being furnished with notice of and voting materials relating to the special meetings.
In addition, Atlas announced today that the parties to the proposed business combination received notice from the Federal Trade Commission's Premerger Notification Office on January 26, 2010 that their request for early termination of the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period was granted, effective immediately.
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Expecting the warrants to double from here! (~.30)
Feb.12 is turning out to be quite a day for SPAC players, with AXG and CFQCF votes...expecting positive outcomes for both
bbotcs, I believe we came to a consensus here some time ago that in a declining dollar scenario, if you take your declining dollars and buy Chinese microcaps, then you've got a decent hedge. Might as well put those dollars to work in growth.
I like HQS, because in niches there are riches. Missed a good entry a couple weeks back though; looking for another one.
here's a calculation posted by fellow SPAC cadet blueskydriving:
"All outstanding Atlas warrants will be converted to 1,677,000 shares of common stock at closing"
But, it is a good trade (if my initial numbers are correct) ... there are 25,800,000 warrants and share price is currently $9.96 ... so, here is my math
1,677,000 x $9.96 = $16,702,920 / 25,800,000 = .6474
So, if you buy warrants for .25 today and the share price remains at $9.96 then you are making .3974 (.6474 - .25)
Too funny: China Cord Blood Corp. topped the list of Biggest Percentage Price Gainers among common stocks on the New York Stock Exchange
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704509704575019503434329066.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs
I'd like to see this headline at least one more time next week ;^)
You have a nice wkend too!
Strangely up on a bloody day; volume not convincing but it was still nice to see. Warrants need to catch up.
grreeen - CBTE is getting delisted. They dropped the ball on that one! http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1042418/000119312510009614/d8k.htm
Tacked on a few today; doesn't seem to be any shortage of shares in the 1.23-1.25 range.
ballsy, CIHD is in "any day" status, per rodman.
AXG/AXW-WT --> vote to postpone Final Vote was approved today.
Meaning: If this vote was approved, then the final vote *should* also be approved in a few weeks. That should cause the warrants to approach "fair value" in the .60's.
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Press Release Source: Atlas Acquisition Holdings Corp. On Wednesday January 20, 2010, 1:19 pm EST
HOBE SOUND, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Atlas Acquisition Holdings Corp. (“Atlas”) (NYSE AMEX: AXG) (NYSE AMEX: AXG.U) (NYSE AMEX: AXG.WT) today announced that the holders of a majority of the shares of its outstanding common stock approved a proposal to amend Atlas’ certificate of incorporation to extend the date by which Atlas must complete a business combination before it is required to liquidate from January 23, 2010 to February 16, 2010. At the special meeting of Atlas stockholders held today, Atlas’ public stockholders also approved an amendment to the trust agreement entered into in connection with Atlas’ initial public offering to extend the date by which Atlas’ trust account must be liquidated to February 16, 2010.
“We thank our stockholders for their continued support of the proposed business combination between Atlas and Koosharem Corporation, and for allowing us the additional time we need to present the merger to our stockholders for approval,” said James Hauslein, Atlas’ Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.
I'm close to adding more myself. Not finding anything else with a similar risk/reward profile.
OT - AXG warrants...looks like the delay vote might have gone thru based on the warrant action. Still waiting for PR to confirm.
OT: AXG - tomorrow at about 7:30PT we'll start finding out if you were lucky to only get 2200, or unlucky. My thought is that if they are able to secure enough votes to get a 1 month delay vote, then they'll have enough to consummate the deal in the end.
ihtblr - OT: tell ya what, go over to the zipcode changer board and search...DD is posted there.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=15310
OT: AXG warrants; tomorrow is a big day for these. They could tank huge if the delay vote isn't successful. Risk/reward is pretty good though; close to a triple on the reward side. Bought more .24
yeah i will too, but what's the difference in entry at 1.00 and 1.15 if the warrants go to >$3? gotta be careful of the opportunity cost of missing it. Then again, if the deal falls thru u saved yourself .15/share !
AXG+ on amtd
Warrant terms have been modified such that if the deal goes thru, the warrants should be worth mid-60's price
CCME - thank goodness this one has turned out well. What would the board psyche have been like if it didn't? Great job all.
CHIO - atco, my thoughts exactly.
atco, CHIO is running due to perception of it benefiting from GOOG's leaving china...nothing more. XSEL and HSWI are benefitting from that perception similarly.
XSEL CALI CHIO - some of the china portals are getting action off of GOOG's pullout. CHIO startin up first. Similar argument applies to CALI's auto portal and XSEL's sports portals.