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Thought some newbies (and not so newbies but with bad memories) might want to see this from February.
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=true&srcid=0B5ihkLRhuiFqY2YzZjU2MjItMjZhZS00NWQ4LWIxMjktNDExYzljYTBjYjk3&hl=en
Good post over on stocks to buy...
Not sure how much anyone has researched Novel Labs, but they are just like Elite. They produce specialty pharmaceuticals products that get retailed via a different pharma company. For Novel, they have teamed with a company called Gavis Pharmaceuticals. After looking into Gavis, they seem to have a very diverse product line that is already available on the market. They list their sister company as Novel directly on their website. This is an impressive investment from Elites management. Seems as though Novel may be bringing in more money than Elite at this point in time. Also important to note that the Gavis management team has many connections to Actavis... Just another good thing going for elite.
Gavis Site-http://www.gavispharma.com/index.html
Novel Labs Site-http://www.novellabs.net/
Breakout which way do you think?
Late day surge...
By the way this might be what Elite considers to be "online" !
Their website sucks! Maybe I'll volunteer my services!
Guess I'll have to buy him a couple of drinks first!
Yup. In the alternate you can actually ATTEND the annual meeting and talk to Jerry (just don't bring up the FDA!)
I might go as I live 30 minutes from Elite.
I get that....but in case you can't/don't get online..stamps still work! (for now!)
http://www.elitepharma.com/ELTP%20FY2011%20DEF14A.pdf
The proxy and the card can be downloaded here.
Last time took 27 days for Elites attorneys to respond.
also, they did not grant the ability to traverse the restriction (if that is the right way to say it).
So it seems they may have to break the patent app up into separate applications or? (Not sure on that...others?)
OK, the docs are available in the image wrapper.
After a very quick read I'd say this rejection is not too bad at all.
The entire basis for the USPTO's rejection seems to be based on the property of ELI-216 in which if the pill is NOT CRUSHED the naltrexone is allowed to pass through the system. They felt this was "obvious" as this aspect of ELI-216 is based on putting a thicker coating of a time release layer such that it never releases by the time it passes through you system.
The USPTO did NOT even address the aspects of ELI-216 in which WHEN CRUSHED the high is negated. Nor did they question it's abuse resistant properties.
I would think Elite would argue the combination of the two is "unique" or they can go back and say what is unique about the way they prevent naltrexone from entering the system.
Would like to see what others feel. I'm not well versed in patent law!
Suggest you do your own DD.
Start with reading the transcripts of the last CC.
All my naive illusions are shattered!
In the absence of concrete evidence this, in my mind, is kind of like talking about Area 51 or Bigfoot!
I'm a terribly logical/rational person and try not to get caught up in too much speculation.
But I'll play along if we do it at least somewhat rationally.
Just don't want us to get all "Yahoo" if you know what I mean!
Agreed but I don't know how to account for volatility and manipulation and I don't think I want to even try.
I prefer to make conservative estimates on earnings. If the stock swings wildly high that does not seem to jibe w/ earnings maybe I see that as a "sell high" "irrational exuberance" opportunity.
If it dips well below where I "rationally" value it I see it as an opportunity to buy cheap stock.
I think the run from 03 to 26 was a combination of the company announcing a number of new items in the pipeline over the past year plus getting in the black briefly w/ Lodrane and finally a bit of over-optimism about ELI-216 and ELI-154.
The loss of Lodrane and the dilution combined with the realization the the patents/partner probably wasn't happening very soon brought it back down.
May not be apples to apples....these are bigger caps but maybe its a starting place.
Teva sells for a trailing P/E of 14.2
Mylan Inc. (MYL): Based in Pennsylvania with a market cap of 9.6 billion, The stock goes for a sporty P/E of 34.5.
Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI): Headquartered in New Jersey, A couple key generic products include emergency contraceptive Levonorgestrel and Trelstar for the palliative treatment of advanced prostate cancer. The company also operates a branded division specializing in urology and women's health. With a 7 billion market cap, Watson commands a P/E of 38.9 on 3-year annual earnings growth of 5.2% for a trailing PEG of 7.5
Honestly I don't know. Lets arrive at a consensus. What do you suggest? Others?
OK, I'm not a stock analyst nor do I play one on TV but I'll take a stab at projecting Elite Stock price over the next three years based on some VERY conservative assumptions.
My assumptions:
1) NOT factoring in ELI-216 or ELI-154 at all.
2) Basing it only on the items announced as of today, in other words if they don't add another product in their pipeline over the next three years.
3) Using the conservative revenue projections from the spreadsheet I made.
4) Using a conservative multiple of 20.
5) Assuming full dilution of 670,000,000 shares.
Elite Valuation
As of 1/1/2012
Shares 670,000,000
Annual Earnings as of 12/30/11 7,000,000
Earnings/Share (EPS) 0.0104
Multiple 20
Share price $0.209
As of 1/1/2013
Shares 670,000,000
Annual Earnings as of 12/30/11 16,200,000
Earnings/Share (EPS) 0.0242
Multiple 20
Share price $0.484
As of 1/1/2014
Shares 670,000,000
Annual Earnings as of 12/30/11 22,000,000
Earnings/Share (EPS) 0.0328
Multiple 20
Share price $0.657
Thoughts?
Hike
I touched base with Dianne Will regarding when we might see proxies.
I first got her out of office that she would be on vacation through 9/12.
I just got this from her:
Dear Rob,
They are in the process of being printed.
The mailing should commence on or about September 12.
Best regards,
Dianne.
jxwang31:
Although no one can really know precisely when these launches are the five I listed should all be launched my years end in my opinion.
My guess is that the last three months of this year will be busy with announcements.
See the spreadsheet I made up. I don't pretend that it is 100% accurate but it provides some framework and I welcome any comments.
Best,
Hike
Next 5 likely drugs to be launched are:
1)Methadone Hydrochloride, 10mg tablets
2)Isradipine
3)phendimetrazine tartrate
4)Naltrexone Hydrochloride Tablets USP, 50 mg
5)Hydromorphone Hydrochloride Tablets USP, 8 mg
Re: Methadone Elite stated in the last CC:
Regarding the contract manufacturing, we expect, very soon, to begin contract manufacturing and packaging of the Pharma Network's Methadone product. This is one of the short-term items that we can begin shortly in order to begin to reduce our burn rate.
The 2nd and 3rd could also launch soon. Just doing manufacturing stability studies and once ok they can start manufacturing and packaging.
The last two are at the mercy of the FDA but could launch "any day".
Cargo:
I accept and thanks. I can't PM you hence this public post which you can delete once you read it!
Hike
Approx $300,000 in the very first quarter. Should be able to double that easily.
See my spreadsheet at:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgI9WYgqHk9mdEZWLTlVdmJSQzJsZmw0YkdGTFlYN0E&hl=en_US#gid=0
Mods, thanks for tidying things up.
I was aware of all this stuff a long time ago. The Biovail guy is no saint either.
See below from Businessweek article, 10/9/06
Corporate Snoops
As the HP scandal shows, some gumshoes will do what most executives either can't or won't
It was Spy vs. Spy. Jerry I. Treppel had begun to suspect that someone was going through the garbage that he placed on the curb twice a week outside his central New Jersey home. Engaged in a bitter feud with Canadian drugmaker Biovail Corp. (BVF ), Treppel, a former pharmaceutical analyst for Bank of America Corp. (BAC ), even had an idea who might be doing it. To be certain, he hired a private investigator.
Sure enough, in the wee hours of the morning during several weeks in the fall of 2005, the PI, positioned behind a fence, filmed two men as they drove up in a gray minivan, grabbed Treppel's trash, and even put some replacement garbage back in the cans to try to cover their tracks. "I live in Edison. The garbage [they put in] was from Perth Amboy," Treppel says. (It included, among other things, pieces of discarded mail.)
Trailing the men back to their homes, Treppel's gumshoe quickly identified the pair as Michael Specht and Edward Wong, investigators who live in neighboring towns on Long Island, N.Y. Figuring out who had hired the two men would prove astonishingly easy. After Treppel subpoenaed Specht and Wong to appear for depositions in a lawsuit he is pursuing against Biovail, an attorney for the two responded in a letter, stating that they "were retained by counsel for Eugene Melnyk," Biovail's chairman. In an e-mail comment to BusinessWeek, a Biovail spokesman said the company wanted to determine if Treppel was destroying evidence that might be relevant to the litigation. Treppel and Melnyk have asserted claims against each other for defamation, growing out of Treppel's coverage of Biovail.
Ahhhh
PERT = MM
pert seller?
Nevermind..
Thanks
Richard Blume - Independent Investor - Analyst
Right. Yes, that's the one. And, regarding Lodrane, your comments today seem pretty upbeat about its future. And, when the
FDA first announced the recall, Hi-Tech had indicated they might license an alternative product on a temporary basis before
the Lodrane was approved.
But, they have not since disclosed any such licensing and its been about five months since the recall. So, I'm wondering whether
or not you've had any discussions with them and maybe if that effort has ceased and they're placing their emphasis now on
getting Lodrane back on the market.
Chris Dick - Elite Pharmaceuticals Inc - COO, President
Yes, I think first of all, what they're doing around it is -- we're working with them on the products from a manufacturing standpoint
and development in some cases. But, anything they do strategically is really for them to probably discuss and talk about. They
have said publicly that they will continue to work and they've already started a filing on the Lodrane products even prior to
these things being pulled.
So, they have said publicly that they're going to continue that and we want to work with them, and we're working with them,
on how they are going to do the Lodrane's in the future. And, I think that's all we can say about it right now.
Carter Ward - Elite Pharmaceuticals Inc - CFO
Yes, I just wanted to clarify that Lodrane was not recalled. It was discontinued by the FDA. So, Lodrane is still allowed to be sold
through the end of this month and then after that the sales will stop in the market.
Richard Blume - Independent Investor - Analyst
And then, any rough time frame as to when it might be back?
Chris Dick - Elite Pharmaceuticals Inc - COO, President
No, again, Hi-Tech will determine that more than we will even though we're working with them on the product. But, there are
a bunch of steps that have to happen before these products can come back on the market. So, it will be a reasonable period of
time.
Relevant portions from the last CC:
So, let me just start with the Lodrane products. As previously announced, as told in the last conference, we stopped manufacturing
the Lodrane products in April and we expect ECR will stop selling these products later this month. Royalties for Elite for the
Lodrane products will continue until these sales are discontinued later this month.
A small level of service revenue will continue going forward for a few quarters. ECR has begun the process of filing an NDA for
these 2 products and they're working on that. We are working with them on that. It will take time, however, before these products
get back to market as a clinical program will be involved and there will be a time for the filing and a time for the FDA review.
Eventually, though, given time, we do expect these products to be back in the market.
Put in 10,000 at .08
Partial fill on 1000,,,waiting on rest
....they have a letter of intent from a specific company to start the clinical phase III trials of ELI-216.....
Ummm, that's pretty damn huge!
FYI, I plan on attending should anyone want to join.
Email from Dianne....
Sorry for the delay in the response – and thanks for resending. You saved me from having to go back through my e mails to find yours.
I actually was just able to speak with management late in the day yesterday about your request.
At this time, we are not able to accommodate your request. However, the annual stockholder meeting is going to be held at the facility located at 165 Ludlow, Northvale, NJ.
Stockholders of record on August 25th are entitled to attend the meeting which is now scheduled for October 18th at 10 AM once the definitive proxy statement is filed with the SEC.
The upside of visiting the facility on the date of the stockholder meeting is the added bonus of the majority, if not all of the board members, will also be in attendance.
The proxy materials will begin to be sent out in the next week or so. Depending on where your shares are held and how you have elected to receive the material, you will either receive your proxy material in the mail or via e mail. Please be on the lookout for it. It is very important to the company that stockholders participate and vote their shares.
Aside from the election of directors and the ratification of the auditors, two very important items are up for vote: increase in the authorized shares and the move of the registration of the corporation from Delaware to Nevada.
If you were on the recent conference call, management is not asking for the increase in authorized to dilute stockholders going forward, but rather to deal with the legacy of the past. The proxy statement outlines why we need the increase in authorized. The increase in authorized is needed for the shares held in reserve. The shares may never be converted to common, but we must have the reserve, nonetheless:
As of June 24, 2011, the total shares of Common Stock issued and outstanding and reserved for issuance upon the exercise of outstanding warrants, options, and the conversion of outstanding shares of preferred stock totaled 624,583,351 shares, including:
• 243,363,531 shares of Common Stock;
• 155,625,048 shares reserved for issuance pursuant to warrants to purchase Common Stock;
• 1,900,000 shares reserved for issuance pursuant to options to purchase Common Stock;
• 127,994,772 shares reserved for issuance upon the conversion of shares of our outstanding series of preferred stock; and
• 96,000,000 shares of Common Stock reserved for issuance pursuant to warrants issuable upon the attainment of milestones under certain agreements to which the Company is a party.
It is important to note IF the warrants are exercised, many of the warrants would result in money coming into the company.
The other important issue of the move to Nevada. This is simply to save a lot of money that would be required to pay the state of Delaware in franchise fees. For example, with the increase in authorized, the tax that will be due to the state of could go as high as $180,000/year. With the move to Nevada, the fee would be around $475.00. The proxy outlines the similarities and differences between being registered in either state. The company does not intend to operate any differently with a move to Nevada. It is simply to keep the money in house to create shareholder value, rather than turn it over in the form of a tax.
I encourage you and your friends to vote according to managements recommendations. If you have any questions about these items, please do not hesitate to let me know.
We hope to see you at the upcoming meeting of stockholders.
Best regards,
Dianne.
Dianne Will
Investor Relations for Elite Pharmaceuticals
phone: (518) 398-6222
dianne@elitepharma.com
You think I'm too conservative or too optimistic?