I am updating my staus.
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CSGH, JT - Do you think companies are ready to put electric cars into mass production now? I was wondering if this is a company with a techonology that's waiting for, I think fair to say inevitable, mass move to electric?
I know Renault has gone for electric and they are aiming for a year or 2. But other manufactures are hedging.
I'm just thinking aloud here - is it that the scaling up / profits might not happen in the next couple of quarters and hence the PPS is in limbo?
rich
Been answered on another board...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=43877599
rich
CKGT, Rames - thank your for clearing that up. Best done before the market opens
rich
CKGT - affected by 1 time charge?
I'm not an accountant but reading yahoo poster and they talked about reduction in allowances, and you can see that the expenses were reduced by half a million ish.
Ignoring this one time charge I'm getting 13 cents ish. Still great numbers, still 44% Y/Y but less than the 66% ish growth.
Anyone disagree?
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017699/000114420409061543/v167283_10q.htm
rich
CKGT - affected by 1 time charge?
I'm not an accountant but reading yahoo poster and they talked about reduction in allowances, and you can see that the expenses were reduced by half a million ish.
Ignoring this one time charge I'm getting 13 cents ish. Still great numbers, still 44% Y/Y but less than the 66% ish growth.
Anyone disagree?
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017699/000114420409061543/v167283_10q.htm
rich
LPIH Found it.. was being feckless...
rich
LPIH anyone find website webcast? Am I just being feckless?
cheers
rich
The company has gone from OTC to the Pink sheets without as much as a PR. I have personally phoned the number given and got nothing but recorded message. This doesn't seem to be an investment but more of a gamble and the odds are very long indeed.
There's lots of good stocks out there doing well - if they are legit then lets see some filings, PR and a long, long, explanation to what's just happened.
rich
NEWN 5.4 is basic. 6.2 is diluted. Plus there's the S-8 (not sure about this bit) so I've put this together as 7.2Million.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144320/000121390009003296/f10q0909a1_chinadigital.htm
rich
NEWN, Joe what numbers you using?
I'm working with 10.8M Million O/S (7.2 Million pre aquisition + 3.6 Million for aquisition).
Working at low end on net inocme for NEWN $5.6M net income
Aquisition target Adding 4.5 Million
EPS of $0.94 for 2009.
2010 New Aquisition has 20% growth or 6.7 Million for 2010.
If I apply 30% growth to NEWN pre aquisition that's 7.3 Million for 2010
So.. I'm getting.. $1.30. Has NEWN guided higher?
rich
Almost, huh
I figure a few 100K shares bought of BSPM is going to make a cool day. Something with a moat, and the sustained margins that should go with it, well that should make for a good few years.
rich
BSPM - has a moat according to presentation Drex went to...
Appoligies if this has already been mentioned on ECSC board...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=43821591
rich
foggy, Drexion has added new information we alredy knew it was a fast growing company and now we know it has a moat around it. The fact that someone wants to buy the stock is, almost, immaterial.
rich
CGA (perhaps YONG) VAT rebate - inc food security
Thinking about how Chinese had made fertilizer cheaper. Interestingly in Mali, which used to be a net importer of fertilizer - they're giving fertilizer away and in so doing country now net exporter of food.
Food security is a major, major, concern for China, as most countries since 2008, and cheaper fertilizers must be part of this initiative.
http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14926114
Tanzania and Mali tried to achieve the same end by subsidising the grain and fertiliser merchants directly. .... The jury is still out on what will happen if and when the country can no longer afford the programme, which is eating up 4.2% of GDP. But there is no doubting the impact so far: the programme has turned Malawi into a breadbasket: in 2005, the country imported over 40% of its food; this year, it will export more than half its output, including to famine-stricken Kenya, having trebled the maize harvest in four years.
rich
I assume they didn't mention any timelimit on the exception? I am assuming that the clause allows them to do this over the counter while others have to get a prescription?
By curing they mean complete relief of symptoms? My understanding is that they would have to take the drug in perpetuity, is that right?
I hope I'm not bugging you Drex, but you've got all the juicy information.
rich
OT Risicare & Bogus cheers eom
NEP if you were doing an earning multiple valuation of 10 - that means your taking the next 10 years of earnings ito the future. So, you have to allow for the fall off. It's why the stock hasn't been $10.... but the oil services changes all that... which is why I'm thinking people have to change the valuation - lets see if we get the "weee" factor.
I can't work out the exact answer of the effect... I can see the effects on revenue but the costs would also be reduced since they pay less money to Chinese state - Taking Q1 2010 I'v got oil production net income of 4,682,496 at 20% and, minimum, $1,662,605 at 40% takeoff (40% takeoff should be higher but don't know amount). Meanwhile drilling is going to be $4 to 5 Million and we can take 10 times forward happily.
rich
OT Trading Accounts
Who would you recommend to have an account with. I'm with trading direct... it's a bit basic.. I wondered if there's anyone you would recommend. Should say, I am British and I know some companies don't like British - were probably mostly terrorits or something.
Bonus:
Cheap trades would be good.
Any additional Before / After market trading a bonus.
Some trading information desktops a bonus
rich
Link to Blogspot posting on NEP (Hardcopy in Burps posting)
A follow up is on the way, he says.
http://themarketbrothers.blogspot.com/2009/11/neps-newest-addition-tiancheng-drilling.html
rich
There has been no catagorical proof but no filing and the fact that rumours were it was shut down - I would say it's dead.
rich
NEP, Joe - You got let on a CC!
Anyway, still working on my numbers - The EPS of $1.28 needs to be clipped for the change over from 20% to 40% off take. Since this is what the market is already taking into account, so must I.
rich
NEP, CSP I'm working on a valuation of NEP
Hi CSP,
I'm looking at the 2012 change over from 20% offtake to 40% offtake to Petro China. I'm modelling that oil revenues reduce but the expenses stay the same.
I think this uncertainty is affecting the stock. So I'm playing around with Q1 2010 estimates with different takeoffs:
20% takeoff
2010 Q1 Net oil income 4,682,496
2010 Q1 Net Drilling income 4,000,000
40% takeoff
2010 Q1 Net oil income 1,662,605
2010 Q1 Net Drilling income 4,000,000 (Low balling it, could be 5)
Max Share dilution of 24 Million (? uncomfirmed)
So with 40% takeoff that's $0.24 for Q1. So, as far as I can see it's more of an oil services company now.
Anyway, Long story short, it will make people money but I wondering how much. I own some shares but I am asking broker if I can use options (he wants me to fill in form!)
rich
YONG, burp - what do you reckon with the dilution being announced on same day as an upgrade? Seems somewhat planned
rich
Be fair he said he didn't expect it to - and if it did he would be very happy to buy at $4.
If you don't mind me saying, your going out of your way to cause arguments.
rich
NEP Blogg on Tiancheng Drilling and Oil Services
http://themarketbrothers.blogspot.com/2009/11/neps-newest-addition-tiancheng-drilling.html
rich
China inc electric rates due to coal inc
Note full title: China raises nonresidential electricity rates
So, ONLY industry
"The increase will help cushion the impact on power producers of rising costs for coal</B>, which China depends on for about three-quarters of its electricity generation."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-raises-nonresidential-apf-1441611468.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
rich
CNOA, Trader - contrary views are never a bad thing but this is how I'm seeing it, now.
2007
Made lots of money from producing organic rice
2008
Claim to not make money from producing organic rice
Sold Organic rice production
Claim to make lots of money from trading rice
Bought a general organic trading firm
2009
No organic rice production
Claim not to make much money from trading rice
Claim to be making most of the money from organic trading firm
Now, it might be that they got unlucky and no one wanted to buy organic rice in 2008 and only their smarts at trading rice made them a profit, but, I would suggest it's also quite possible that the rice producing company "sold" their rice at a subsidised price to the rice trading arm and that this made the profit - and when they sold the rice producing arm they killed their gold egg laying goose.
To me in 2008, assuming the general trading arm made $4 million in Q4 for them, the rice made them $14M (Q3 8M+ Q4 (10M - 4) and they sold the rice business for $8.7 M. They are either very unlucky with price fluctuations, incompetent, or worse.
As you say the general trading division should value the company at $2 ish... it's OTC lets take that down to $1.80 and it's got unreliable management so take off the mystery X factor from the price which is dependent of investors memories. If they can show growth in 2010 they could be worth a lot more. Not sure that I could recommend the stock's management though.
rich
CMFO Hi Kettle,
Yup, nothing wrong with CMFO and yes the board gets blinkered vision so always worth pointing out a stock.
CMFO are doing around 13 - 14 Million net income this year.
Looking to do 18 Million next year... according to todays PR. Thats a growth rate of around 35% and EPS of around 0.78 assuming 23 Million shares.
Y/Y Q3 revenue growth was unspectacular but the reduction of receivables was a nice suprise - the reduction in inventories was expected since they stock fish over the summer period I think because of fishing limits.
Earnings
10 times $7.80
15 times $11.70
20 times $15.60
Assuming they hit those numbers I can't see how your going to lose and it's looking a good upside from here. Providing the market can start to smile a bit at companies - Mr market still prefers a sullen epxression of expectant doom.
Global Gains at the motley fool follow it alot and have visited the place and looked over the management and they seem ok with them.
cheers
rich
Hi Snow, yep, that is the only problem with BSPM that I can see.
If we took a reasonable revenue estimate for FY 2009 - $51 Million (Net Margin 23% ish) and used the Net Margin in 2008 of 15% - before, I believe, the Hep drug was released. Then the EPS would be $0.33. The company is growing revenues - so we should still get our money back at these levels.
They talk about broadening their portfolio through introduction of new medcines and acquiring them - this is obviously an important move for the company.
rich
GCHT - It's valid to tell you about a letter of intent for 3/4 of a billion dollars. So, I'll give them that. However, yes, the recent PR was fluff and shouldn't have been made - were investors/speculators not goldfish.
They did change one bit which was they intend to complete the 128M order in a year - they previously said 5-6 months. This was at odds with their presentation that implied they would do it in a year-ish. So, now the PR and the presentation both agree 1 Yr.
rich
TSTC Growth estimtates for 2010?
2009 in the bag... all TSTC needs is some optimisim going forward.... There's the hand waving lots more 3G buildout... but is there anything else?
rich
Any TSTC revenue estimates for 2010? Other than lots of 3G building?
rich
You can certainly argue that the 2008 Q3 numbers should be explained vs 2009 Q3 - has anyone spoke to management? As it looks like most of their money is made through the 60% owned trading group.
However, only other shareholders said 50. They said 50 because Q1 & Q2 in 2009 were better > 100% than Q1 & Q2 in 2008 therefor Q3 must be 100% better than Q3. This is to put it mildly optomistic especially considering the dilution.
The management have not given any guidance apparently due to the lawsuit. They are also calling the competition fierce - have they lost sales to another company?
I think this is defintely worth investigating but Q3 2008 vs Q3 2009 isn't enough to say this is deceit.
So, why can't it be that they are losing part of their business to a rival but the Dalian Huiming Industry is continuing as normal?
rich
SKBI Valuation
Lets keep it easy, umm, ish....
Were using 7,025,343 shares - allowing for the upcoming 2 : 1 split. All earnings will be rebased for this - the current share price would be $11.1 - using this number.
Revenue growth for year to date is 22.8M / 17.2 M = 32%.
Net Inome for year to date: 6,688,331
EPS for year to date: $0.95
Assuming 32% growth for Q4 we will be left:
Net Income FY09E = 9.7 M
EPS FY09E = 1.44
P/E 09E = 7.7
The growth in 2010 will come from the basic business that grew at 32%. Lets say this business grows at 16% next year.
Growth of basic business at 16%
Net Income FY10E = 11.1 M
EPS FY10E = 1.59 = 7
Growth of the Vaccine and Microbe business [1]
SKBI have given guidance on Revenues and growths. We also know what their net margins are currently - I've played around with these numbers in a previous post but taking the low end of the guidance we end up with $8,350,000 net income from vaccines - very high margin business!
So, If we add on this net income to the 16% basic business growth
Net Income FY10E = 19.4 M
EPS FY10E = 2.77
PPS P/E 10 = $27
So, our $11 share should do $2.77 on low balled earnings.
Clearly there is a) Upside to these numbers b) A heafty margin of safety at these levels. To lose money the basic business and the vaccine facility must both have signficiant failings.
rich
[1] http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Skystar-BioPharmaceutical-iw-1017866592.html?x=0&.v=2
TMI float is only 752k (according to blogger)
Also mentions some can be unlocked if above 11.50 for 20 consecutive days...
"The 1,500,000 are locked up for one year (cannot be sold) following the business combination, unless the stock trades over $11.50 for 20 consecutive days."
http://super-trades.blogspot.com/2009/10/tmi-float-is-only-752k.html
Looks like, as others have said about newly listed shares, that there should/could be opporunties to get into this stock.
rich
PUDA's Passive ownership - someone listening to the CC said that this would allow them to apply to be consoidator in that province? Don't know if they intend to own it to become consolidator?
If that's true it seems for a small investment they have a chance for outsized returns. Or put it this way... given they are trying to consolidate 8 mines already why would you want a small ownership of another mine? It's possible that they are desparate to get into mining but seems strange unless there is some other motive....
rich
China's Not the Disaster-in-the-Making You Think It Is
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/373849/China%27s-Not-the-Disaster-in-the-Making-You-Think-It-Is?tickers=fxi,spy,pgj,dia,spy
For balance...
This bloke has a negative view - though he has a negative view on the worlds economy - I only say for balance as he just repeats the usual China stuff about over capacity blah blah - I'm sure your uptodate with the argument.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/373502/Miracle-or-Mirage-%22China-Is-Very-Much-at-Risk%22-Gary-Shilling-Says?tickers=FXI,PGJ,UUP,UDN,TLT,TBT,HAO
rich
GHCT / TMI & Intitial revenues...
TMI had the same issue 10-Q had nothing in it.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1399067/000114420409059789/v166167_10q.htm
The PR did...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-MediaExpress-Holdings-bw-500656408.html?x=0&.v=1
It looks like they've announced the results of the financial results of the company that reversed into them; the PR said "Hong Kong Mandefu Holdings Limited" which is indeed that company. That would make sense given there's takeovers going on during the quarter.
So GCHT might surprise us with a couple of dollars revenue yet...
rich
CPQQ Q&A YES! eom
rich
While on the surface plausible it's laughable reasoning.
China needs Coal as part of their energy requirements going forward. The demand is insaitable. The worst case secnario is that they are foced to do more "clean" coal. All the projections I've seen is for steady or increasing coal. Alothough the % of coal energy going down the abslolute isn't.
Not convinced by need the energy argumet? Well then there's the energy security argument. Resources are becoming scarce what happens if people aren't willing to sell to China an energy resource at the right price? It would stall the economy and what could they do about that? Yup, nothing.. Which is why the Chinese are increasing their imports of coal now.. not necessarily because they need it all but more that the cost of coal is only going to go up so you may as well stock pile some Aussie coal now and save your Chinese coal for a later more expensive time.
Even, if you think that the above isn't enough.. well lets be honest whose going to force them? US, Chinas are joint worst poluters in the world? It would be like getting alcholics to agree on the drink driving limits.
Even if that doesn't convince you - then PUDA's revenue is washing meturlurgic coal... which is used in steel and not in heating coal stations.
Even if that doesn't convince you GCHT a wind turbine comapany is down and it just offered a MOU for 3/4 billion worth of windmills. If someone decided that the end of coal started today then is an alternative energy company down? Surely, one way bet.
The fact is that it's down and people are looking for a reason - and they come up with one not based on knowledge but based on fear.
rich