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WOW My swing just traded 4 cents above my ask at $3.22 and didn't show up on the level II. What the hay? from $2.97 to $3.18 in minutes, with large size trades flying in!!
This was way out of line. IMO Just like the unusual pattern I saw at 11 AM. Something is going on! I closed at $3.26 ???
Just a quick look at trading today. Seems MMs are working a little just before lunch.
IMO it looks like they want to draw in some volume at this PPs level. This could move back up this afternoon, past .025.
Just a quick look comment, about trading today. I noticed large numbers for asks orders placed, while these orders are being filled with many many small buys!
This started around 11:11 am. @ $2.95. Volume light! Seems to me lots of little guys are buying strong, while a few larger holders selling. This could walk back up after lunch. IMO
PS: number of trades at 11:30 AM 232; ave trade size 1,031 and now 1 hour later 325 trades with ave size 857. See what I mean.
mitchell66
IMO When stocks trade on the OTC:BB, they trade on hopes, dreams, and momentum. Stocks that trade on larger exchanges trade on performance, financials and potential.
Gte's performance has been good, financials questionable, and potential volatile. Basically the stock is being eye balled by a completely different animal and the PPs will eventually seek a level the market determines to be fair value of the company and it's potential for increased financial success.
Until new investor feel comfortable they have a good understanding of the companies business plan, execution ability and has reached profit goals, to back it up, the PPs will continue to be volatile and trade with little logic for old GTEL investors.
Remember the new investors don't love the company, they do not see profits, and they do see the expenses increasing, as management spends the core businesses profits, before they are created.
We KNOW GTE will reach goals, LOL They wonder! IMO the increased expenses, will fall by the concern way side when the core business starts to bring in the high margin rev's. Until then, the PPs will run and dive! As GTE continues to be a speculative stock! New investor don't invest in what could/should happen, They want to see it happen and evaluate if the PE is worth the premium. PS: GTE still has NO PE because it has no profits yet!
The mind set, is completely different on the American exchange. People look at facts, not expectations. So look at GTE facts and you will understand why the PPs is not going where you expect it too.
OK I know lots of you are going to start posting about GTEL reaching all the business goals to date. I agree, but the ONE main goal that INVESTORS (not traders) need to invest their money, is PROFITS and pipeline for continued and increasing financial prefromance!
GTE & management has done a great job getting us to where we are at. TRUST their ability to know how to continue this !!!! I do, and I don't need to know why they bought another company, because IMO they did that and every other move, board members keep questioning, to reach goals we know nothing about!!
IMO management is way past where our little pea brains can reach! Off the OTC:BB by MAY for the Russel, Bought another comapny, hired, new engineering staff, new financing deals, and on and on, we bang this stuff around with out knowing what we're talking about! They know!!
rolo731
Very good point, I agree 100%. This management team is well aware of what to do to influence it's stocks PPs. And has made a obvious effort to support it's stocks PPs with good success. They are on the shareholders side. IMO
Good to have a business marketing and business financial guy running the company, with a respected oil guy running operations! A win win IMO!
But NEVER forget the previuos patterns!!! LOL
5/23 chart up date! Love chart patterns! Hate MMs. See how the pattern moved out of the up trend channel a little.
I have posted about MMs creating an accumulation channel, becoming pro active, and what can happen if a stock falls to far out of an existing pattern.
Well with this chart you can see what I visualised in my head, to prompt me to start posting about a possible walk down starting and possible fall out of the channel.
I did't actually see this, until I created this up date chart. IMO There is no concern yet!!! But keep watching for MMs to completely change the over all, up trend channel. We don't want to get to far out, for to long!!! IMO This is the first indication of the MM games starting!
This could get worst after the last big expected company achivement is completed and when we have a while before we can expect any new good PRs. IMO Watch for it ! That's all!
SA
Heres more conformation. I remembered doing something last month with an eventual end target up around 3 to 4.5%. This Ta chart uses up trend channel & history of indicators & repeat chart patterns for projection. Forgot about this old longer look, but it adds more conformation to our guess !
Message 639
'Stock Analyzer
Cool, sorry for stepping on you toes, but conformation is great. I was out looking for a chart pattern to show new target and we came up with the same conclusion, missed your post. But my cup & handles and your resistance levels work well together! Patterns do repeat!
Now all we need is for them to repeat this time! LOL
bushwacker
That SEC squealer was me. I'm sorry I'm so serious, and spoiled everyones fun, but it pissed me off! After over a year, trying to get the RB members to believe MMs read boards and manupulate stock price, The dame Kid at DOMS (159) got so cockly, I couldn't take it!
I found how quickly the MM / board signaling stopped after my SEC reply post was the only thing that was funny about the whole thing!!
I hate MMs !!!
doc80ca
I don't trade on margin either, can't afford debit any more. I live in a cash world!
I also feel, now that GTE is on the American, your & mide's posts about short playing are good for the board!
I have a understanding of the short play and could see the benifts of doing so, But not having experience will not comment on short plays.
I don't have credit cards any longer either or wear a watch. All that went when I stopped working and started trading for a living!
Wolf
No problem, I wasn't joking. I do feel your pain. Last year I averaged down on gtel several times and remember the feeling of, am I correct in dumping more money into this company. I wasn't correct then, needed cash and sold my lump for a loss & tax bennies EOY. After an 8 month M&M walk down. I was playing the company, not the stock.
After the retail traders left, the only ones left trading, and the average daily volumes & MMs accumulated shares reached the last drop of blood. The stock started trading on company execution again. I played the stock, bought back in, just in time for the double I expected from the company a year before.
My point, GTE is GTEL it is the company, love it, invest in it, but don't trade it, trade the stock!
We're looking for a way to trade it, not invest it. Investments are personal, trades are logical! LOL Mr Spock would have done well trading. IMO
IMO Only invest more on a down trending stock, (GTE) if you don't need the money. Else you have that, glass half empty feeling. Just another thing I've learned the hard way!
I've also learned how to trade a down trending stock & profit. Which calls for TA, a well thought out plan including, timing and good rules to follow!
I wasn't taking your post as a knock, as much as a feeling of frustration! We're cool!
wolf
I feel your pain. While you average down with your $3.20 buy, I increased my investment with my $3.15 buy.
Guess it's all in how you look at this "Theorizing" stuff.
dragon52
Agree 100% with your points, but disagree with your conclusion.
1. STO is above 80, but divergence is opening after cross.
2. High BB crossed, but FEB 6; MAR 1 & 21; Apr 15 & 24 & 27, climbs all had 2 days trading above BB, after cross.
If it does, I'm buying another swing!
Corners
The targets I just posted could be without flow figures 3 cents, with 4.5 cents! Instead of short/long!
Well here is the short and long new targets I came up with! I normally don't look out over 6 months on a penny, as a matter of fact, I normally don't look out over 3 months. At any rate, the long look gave me something to look for short. And I found a cup & handle.
TOP chart 1 year; bottom chart 3 months!
So short 1 week target 3 cents and long 1 month target is 4.5 cents!
goalkeeper15
A run is concidered from the low trend reversal to the high trend reversal. A start in climb, to finnish of the climb! It can be one day or 4 - 5 days. In OTC:BB normally 3 days long. IMO
Seems we are having a problem with terms.
LAP
Talking about using your gut, That's what I'm doing, swinging this now, without an upper and lower channel formed! LOL I just spent some time looking at short chart indicators and TA shows me it could go either way Monday. Indicators have not turned bad, but have closed the up move indication, to who knows?
I broke a RULE today! LOL yes I did what I always say don't do! I didn't sell when my plan called for me to sell FRI. time frame. I broke a RULE when I started this swing, not knowing achievable targets yet!
I'll tell you why, MY GUT!!! Now watch and learn from my mistake! LOL Bet it goes down, event though I think the numerous 1000 to 5000 share size trades at $3, tells me to hold one more day! We'll see, I have some wiggle room, so I won't loose, but I may not make any money either! LOL.
I hope you guys don't think I'm posting number, to act like I'm bragging or something. Normally I'll post my targets in conjunction with chart patterns, so you can see what I see. This time it's all guts and I want everyone to see what happens when you trade that way.
I am in an unknown area, guessing minute by minute and day by day. If I win, good. but the tension I'm expressing is real and not a feeling I enjoy. I can't wait to end this stupid trade and get back to knowing what I'm doing!!!
Your seeing an example of how not to trade! LOL I have no idea why I did this! LOL
goalkeeper15
I agree but runs usualyy last 3 days not 2. So we have another day, chart indicators shows more to come and today I didn't see the MMs hands in the pie. The forth good sign is fate.
I've been posting .025 my lump sell target for over a month, today after closing a smaller swing trade bought at .0205 sold for .0245. I placed my lump sell order at .025 @ 3 PM. 3:50 the .025 trades started closing, 20 or so. Good old SCHB, my order did NOT close!
So fate is giving me a second chance to raise my profit sell target on Monday. I tryed to follow my plan! LOL But IMO somebody up there wants me to make more money than I would have been happy with.
Yes normally a run lasts 3 days and the 2 day %age gains and EOD volumes shows this is not over. The DMI, Aroon, MACD, & RSI show more. The MMs didn't fight today. The only indicator that signals a peak is the STO, which is showing an unusual continuing climb, over bought, above 80. That point is normally where you see selling for profits, but the positive divergance is still open a little. For more. Not much but more. DMI shows alot more RSI shows a mid size continuation and the Aroon up trend is holding.
ALL looks good for a continuation. I can't see a clear chart pattern to indicate a target though. The MM proactive enter has screwed up the short chart pattern. So I can't pick a target above .025.
Using my gut, with Spec traders still coming, MMs not holding, and TA indicator saying ONE MORE DAY. Monday could be wild! With everyone trying to sell for profits!!!
I'd kept my finger on the trigger, and eye on the screen, and play Monday like a daytrade, without a upper target, but placing .025 as the low target! Remember, if it starts falling fast put your sell order in a few clicks below the bid, so it doesn't run past you!!!
Luck to all!
mide
Your thought on why trade size increased at the $3 level if the channel top was reached today. If it's on the way down again, why would larger traders jump in now?
mide
Think positive, I already lowered my sell target from 20% to 15% at $3.22, lets squeek out 2 more cents so I can close it! LOL Doesn't really matter Friday was my timing target and I'll close it out today some time, but you could cross your fingers and try to help me! LOL
You know, now that I look at the trading today and the 2,3,500 trades this AM and the 2,3,5000 trades at $3 just after lunch, it makes sense the retail swing traders are seeing the 2 day 10% come back and bringing the PPs to where they want to enter the swing trade!
This little retrace for larger traders entry, should be a good sign!
max57
I never feel challenged I only post opinions. I did think I didn't make my point clear enough. Feelings and ego is not why I post. Anyone can agree or disagree. Just trying to pass on some things I've experienced and learned about to date.
Tommorrow some brand new trader, could bring up something I never thought about and I may start looking into the subject brought up. I expect most would expand on my ideas with their own research, on all the bull I dump out, not take it as gospal!
Very weak trading this AM. strong trade size at 3 dollar level. Volume picking up and I agree with Tech. Was a mini retrace which should turn back up this afternoon!
Todays weakness worried me about my chosen top channel target. I lowering my profit target down to 15% from 20%. That would make it just around the previous support level, before the drop. Makes sense, I just wanted to see a better come back. But mide may be correct about the lower of the 2 channels being the one we see.
As a matter of fact; Today I don't see the MMs hand in the trading as strong as usual! They may have reached the PPs & inventory level where they start helping this move to turn into a run!
We'll have to continue to watch this afternoon, but IMO things are setting up well today!
max57
The post was to bring out something that has occured on the OTC:BB, once MMs see's they can make money on a stock that catches the retail trading eye.
My point was a warning of what can happen, not will! I have seen it many times. The MMs will take control of a stock that trades large numbers of shares daily, because it produces a continuious stream of fees. "business rev's" once they see retail traders get hooked on the stock.
Once that happens you can expect a series of mini runs on a long slow walk down trend. The mini runs, keeps the expectation of just one more major run coming, as the company continue to do well. The retail traders keep hanging on and on and on, as the MMs make more and more money and accumulate more and more share as the retail traders trickle out.
Once the ave trading volume reaches a point where the MMs aren't making enough fees they move on, and let it trade as it should.
This is common on the OTC:BB and many inexperiance penny player get caught in this trap, of a love afair very often. They just won't give up on their favorate COMPANY, which continues to execute it's business plan, without the same happening to the STOCKS PPs.
The chart was to answer a question, not compair the companies (stocks).
Just happens I have played this in GTEL now GTE and watched it happen.
Note: Dec 2004 where ave volumes fell to only 2 - 3 million shares traded per day. The MMs had accumulated so many shares and the retail traders had given up completely.
Bang company execution again became the driving force it the STOCK, not the MMs !!! You can win with stocks in this situation by only swinging the MM mini runs and not holding a long position which looses value over the long run!
So love the company and trade the stock. I wouldn't hold a long lump if I see the walk down start! That's all. A heads up to some who haven't seen this before. I'm not saying I see this for TNOG right now! But everyone should watch!
alsaco
A long walk down is when, after a strong short climb (3 mo) the PPs gets lower and lower over a long period of time. (8 mo)
If look at this 2 year chart you will see the run up DEC to FEB 2004 and the walk down slowly to DEC 2004. During the 8 month walk down GTEL doubled REV's & reduced losses, with great business plan execution. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=GTE,uu[h,a]daclyyay[de][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iUl14!Uv25]&am....
I'd like to bring some thing to the board attention. You can take it or leave it, as always. This is some thing for longs to conceder, mostly. But traders should think about it also.
I know you guys see all the great potential this company has and has been executing on and feel strongly the management is good and is taking TNOG in the correct direction for success! I agree.
You have to remember the company, management, and employees make money from company growth & successes. Long investors in OTC:BB stocks, have to take the huge risks that startup companies do and long can be very long.
My experience with these types of companies shows companies can continue to grow, without growth in the stock. IMO The recent market maker proactive position in TNOG, may cause the stock to stop or slow in it's past 3 month rate of growth. Many times TA charts will show a change in pattern, just before the pattern stops. The up trend channel is forming a change in it's past 3 months pattern, right now.
In that, I mean it's breakout pattern has strengthened sideways some and the breakout is taking slightly longer to play out, then the past 4 or 5 moves. Due to MMs IMO !
The level of big event news, for the company, may be reached with the wells going into production and you may have to wait many months for further major company events.
Put the 2 together and you may see MMs start a long slow walk down after this run. Just a warning as to what may happen. IMO everyone should understand this possibility and start to develop a plan, if it does happen.
SEBASS & mide
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&symbol=GTE&type=Quote
mide
My swing play info, the past few days, has been more of a educated guess, then historical pattern, brought forward. I agree 100% with you, that we need as many eyes looking for new trading patterns, as possible.
Just trying to get some to stop looking through OTC:BB eyes, as the mind set on the American is different. I have no TA to back me up, but am playing the guess, because of American exchange experience.
I hope bringing these possible moves to others, as early as possible, will help them to start looking at GTE differently, then they have for months and years, on the OTC:BB.
IMO there are many out there, that moved with GTEL to a larger exchange , for the first time. Weather this plays out as I expect, matters not. IMO What matters is people on this board bring out things they notice for examination, so we all can benifit!
We have not had much input from some of the old TA guys, because there hasn't been much to point out, in that area. So I call on anyone that notices a new pattern, bring it to the boards attention.
EOD 14.5% gain and 48.5 mill volume. Close enough to 15% & 50 mill for me. I expect this to continue tommorrow because expected trading levels were reached.
Those number will draw in many more spec traders tommorrow. IMO
If management follows up with actual flow figures and 2nd well production starting. It's in the bag. If not the fight with the MMs is on!! Beat them before, should beat them again. I hope!! LOL
EOD 5.5% gain 100k short of yesterdays volume. I'll take it.
Day 3 of the swing trade play tommorrow. Will need a good run to reach my guesses of total volume 2 mill traded and 22% gain.
grapes,
IMO hedge fund managers tend to buy in steps as PPs lowers and sell in stepps as PPs rises. Then do the same thing over. I'm looking for a trading channel to form between $ 2.75 & $3.50 and swing in between.
I am swinging this move now, waiting for 20 to 25%. And will continue to swing it if the PPs falls on large trade sizes with large volume after the top is reached. If this happens, it will confirm my guess of hedge fund action! If not then the drop was just a drop!!!
Things working out now. Looking like we'll get 15% with 50 Mill EOD! this would be good sign for 2 nd day run continuation!
Keep you fingers crossed, we get what we want and the MMs give in to pressure and lose!!!
wolfrun & grapes
wolf
Check my posts FRI as the continuing OTC:BB/American chart I used called for a up run due to a double bottom. I tryed to use combo charting that did not work! mide called our attention to the possible entry of hedge fund traders and the chart fell apart and the hedge fund guys came in to take PPs down.
Grapes
If you look at Fri double bottom point and saw the Monday start of the take down, you would have seen the breakout at about $3.53. That's where the hedge fund guys started buying and why I don't expect PPs to go above that, until a good positive PR. No, it is not support,IMO support is $2.80 with resistance @ $3.35 (+ or -). These are where I saw trading interest changes occur, not price level turns. I'm calling these because of how I'm interpeting trading patterns, not actual PPs levels or TA charting!!
Ok so far today we are at a very good % gain level, now we need about 200 - 250k more volume, to hit my 2nd leg swing target.
Your are watching the little guys walk the PPs up! With NO OTC:BB MMs holding it back. All have to learn the new trading pattern found here on the American.
IMO after 3 days of this, we will have reached the down day 2.3 mill volume bought by hedge fund managers. With 700k EOD 3 times and the hedge fund guys will have sold us all they bought on the way down, for their profit. Hopefully we will see a 20 to 25% swing. That's why I'd like to see 7% today on top of 5% yesterday.
Remember the fall started below $3.50 and that point should be the very highest top we can expect as this new swing trading channel starts to play out. Also remember this chit is all IMO and what I call experienced GUESSES!
ADD on - Grapes. IMO you have to watch the new trading patterns forming on the American. The mind set here is completely different than the OTC:BB and there has not been enought time to form a accurate TA pattern yet. my opinion only!
Last night I posted the daily stats since we went to the American, take a look at the numbers and try to see a pattern forming in them. IMO The charts are not established yet!
'VTRARSAJAK'
To be completely honest I'm not shore this will become the run we've been waiting for. I expected the run to go to .025 plus and it still may get there over a normal 3 day run.
But these MMs aren't playing like they should, today. They continue to hold, and hold. They tricked the spec players a week or so ago, taking 10 million shares at a loss from them. This afternoon it seems they are not selling into a run continuation and may trick them again.
Make no mistake, MMs have complete control now and are not alowing buying pressure to be closed. This tells me they are still not in a comfortable position with their inventory and don't want profits, as much as regulated volume and control.
To continue this run tommorrow the MMs have to let it run above this mornings top and increase volume to reach 50 mill. Then I think we could reach my .025 target plus. The retrace history is about half the run 1st day, with walk down the next 3 to 7 days.
Add on -- While typing this the 2nd leg above .021 has occured, now lets see the volume come back!!
Well here comes the spec traders and the MMs closing orders. Look at the volume surge the last 15 minutes! You can expect leg 2 as the afternoon plays out and the MMs sell into the spec players play. 10 million shares traded last 45 minutes.
Should see another up move and retrace as spec's take profits on the buys being made earlyer to now! MMs will retrace and let go, retrace and let go to get fees and slow run!
The trades below 100k will be us, trying to make a buck while the big boys play their game. LOL
ottoman
Not, your .0179 Tnog position will make you money! Lets see how this play out today, it's just going into lunch hour and many with TNOG on their watch list are just becoming aware of the 10 to 13% run happening now.
You can expect alot of action after the lunch hour, when spec traders move in to play! IMO
If we get volume over 50 million today with 10 to 15% we should see this continue tommorrow. And if Tnog's CEO follows up with numbers or up date of 2nd well producing after repairs it will continue.
The cork is working it's way out of the bottle !! LOL
Had a buy order in .0005 above the ask for 10 minutes with SCHB and 10 orders closed below me. While my order sat on their desk, never entering the trading system. Finally closed 15 minutes after placed.
They are buy holding orders! For sure!
There goes 2 mill order below the bid! I hate these guys!! LOL
IMO you are seeing 2 masters at the market today. The first is TNOG's CEO with his timed news releases and Just enough news to help his company PPs. And the MMs that are playing this with the bigest alls I've ever seen.
We now know the OIL is really there but not how strong the flow will be and the MMs are going to buy as much as possible before letting it go, to try to save their butts on the next few days of trader buying, in this 3 month up trend stock, with company execution! They just got 2 million shares traded, .0005 below the 1st leg of the run! After the traders bought 12 mill!
It's all good if you play the compant results, with the MM plays. Buy with them, for it's going higher weather they want it or not. They may be able to hold; but they can't stop!
OK guys, we had volume of 2mill just when run started and got 1.5 mill on first run up before news, to .0215 with retrace to .02 the instant news was released. then 12 mill at .02 to .0195 with a short hold and smaller trade sizes going after the hold.
This should have run up with the 12 mil traded not lower, with hold and smaller trades. Looking like a major MM stall play. Lets see if we can beat these crooks. so far they only traded 1/2 mill in the 15 minutes after the hold at .0195, while trading 12 mil during the first 1/2 hour after the news release.
IMO they are holding trades on their desk to stop run. With time they will have to release these orders if they can't fake the trader to close and lower them.
It's a battle of wills now !
Yes News released, This should run now!! fooled me the run started before the news, someone must have been buying with inside news! No numbers but said good flow! Need larger holding tanks
Here comes some volume now at .0202, going to check news now for the TNOG 10:30 normal news release! Maybe there is news I didn't see.
Don't get excited guys, just a MM play. IMO Quick No news run for continuing intrest draw on little volume. Yesterday almost have 5mill shares traded was MMs swap fest with little spread, today a mini run, both MM plays IMO. the big run to come.
If you watch you'll see the up volume about 1.5 mill and the down volume will be double. Drawing in suckers shares. Good time to jump if your tired of waiting though!