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'doc80ca'
OK, Never happy and like to try to grasp one thing at a time.
Prior to mide calling attention to hedge fund traders, I was not concerned with them. I didn't expect them to zero in that fast to GTE. But I did expect to see some intuitional fund traders playing.
As we know now it was the other way around. The more I think about today's AH, I think the 166k at $2.98 was institutional and the 40k at $3.00 was hedge guys.
So now I'm going to start paying attention to intuitional trading again. There has been some good posts on the main board about Russell's from several board members. I recommend doing some reading past posts to get a handle on that.
My experience is that institutional investing is a good thing for stocks. Went you see them start to buy, you can feel the company is more financially stable. But as noted on the other board, it may be required buying due to GTE getting no the Russell list.
At any rate people should start to pay attention to any indication of continued or initial institutional trades being made. They add strength to the company and usually determine a stock present actual value for the market.
As with hedge trades, they like to try to break up their trades, so their move in and out of a company will not effect to PPs, as they do. Todays AH was rather unusual and probably due to required buying. I don't expect continued move to be so out in the open.
IMO Thomas info is an aid, but not accurate, because they do the same as we would, but with software. They locate unusually large trades, concider them as instuitions and list
them all together. Our job will be to pick out hedge trades from instuitions. LOL
Just my opinion.
WOW there goes 7 trades GAP DOWN for 150K shares, @ $2.98 with ask/bid $3.07/$3.04. Does this seem to be the opposite to the GAP UP AH trades a few days ago, at the $3.30 top area?
No one selling large after 2PM, I'll say. Help has arrived!
Anyone dought where hedge fund guys want the PPs to go now? Get your swing trade plan working!!!
May be institution after thinking about it and the $3.00 trades hedge guys, either way hedge guys taking this down. IMO We will see a channel bottom.
Ouch; 1.6 million shares on 5 trades high, in 10 minutes at EOD Friday!
Looks like someone knows something about news Monday at 10:30. I'm leaning toward a early morning buy monday, above my hoped for .028. LOL !!! At least we can buy up to .033 and still get 25% on a move to .045 or above!!!
Luck to all, this major buying move means something IMO!! The CEO has friends!!! LOL If we see alot of large settle trades at close, I'm ok. Else I'm back in monday AM., no more waiting.
Oh well ! LOL
'Ragnar Danneskjold'
Yesterday and today until 1:30 the site was not working. But now it is. Just check EOD for stats and write them down, because there is no history and you have to keep your own records.
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/S?toparea=Home
Hardly any trading after 2PM, IMO this is a good example of the opposite trading thing I mentioned.
No one will sell larger blocks, only small trades going.
Instead of traders showing buying pressure, on the OTC:BB, to stop an MM down move. The traders are showing lack of sell interest! (the sell pressure is there) I don't know if that makes sense to many. You may have to be in my mind set to see it that way.
At any rate volume stalled!
This is where we may see the specialist step in and help out their bigger customers and start selling lower into the EOD! Watch for increased volume and trade sizes!
Stock Analyzer & goalkeeper
Looks to me yesterdays day trader/MM day was to make money at the hold level and todays tight spread shows MMs don't want money, they want shares now.
All and all 2 days completely controled by MMs. My problem is I don't understand why MMs don't take it down. Tic by Tic, bid/ask moves, and intra day charts don't show buying pressure to stop take down.
I don't see many large block day traders, because MMs keeping it tight, very strange.
I may have to buy back Monday before 10:30 at the same PPs I sold at, darn! LOL I hate M&Ms !! They steal and won't help you when you want them too! LOL
'Ragnar Danneskjold'
Here are 2 posts which will help you see what I'm trying to watch, with trade size and numbers of daily trades.
Daily for OTC:BB on the 23rd
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6442697
And here's the American to date. Yesterday the website I get the numbers from was down and I forgot on the 13th.
5/24 # of trades 362, ave size 1,136, vol 411k
5/25 # of trades 659, ave size 1,127, vol 742k
5/26 # of trades 643, ave size 1,321, vol 850k
5/27 # of trades 410, ave size 1,115, vol 457k
----------------------------------------------
5/31 # of trades 367, ave size 1,561, vol 573k
6/1 # of trades 430, ave size 1,312, vol 564k
6/2 # of trades 571, ave size 1,303, vol 744k
6/3 # of trades 727, ave size 1,068, vol 777k
---------------------------------------------
6/6 # of trades 1334, ave size 1,723, vol 2.3 mil
6/7 # of trades 901, ave size 934, vol 842k
6/8 # of trades 833, ave size 858, vol 714k
6/9 # of trades 649, ave size 993, vol 645k
6/10 # of trades 501, ave size 1302, vol 684k
---------------------------------------------------
6/13 # of trades ???, ave size ????, vol 676k
6/14 # of trades 704, ave size 961, vol 777k
6/15 # of trades 586, ave size 867, vol 508k
6/14 # of trades ???, ave size ???, vol 500k
As you can see we started out with investor size trades and after the 6Th when the Hedge play showed, the trades got small as the PPs climbed back up. And now I expect them to increase as the move lowers to create a hedge trader channel. If this pattern does not play out, fine. I'm just trying to see things happen, I can trade on. I can trade on a channel!
'Ragnar Danneskjold'
YES, exactly what I have been saying. I have no hedge fund friends, but have posted about when you see lots of trades in over 1k size, it could be hedge guys! This became obvious when the 3 days of AH 4100 trades came threw. I knew of this from past experience not frienship. As a matter of fact I think trades 1k to 3k mostly investors, from 2 to 7k mostly hedge and over 7k to be mostly institutions. So your just confirming my take on the fact.
The only reason I'm posting about trade size and number of daily trades is to show the difference in trading from the OTC:BB and the American. There a lot of guys that moved off the OTC:BB for the 1st time, with GTE. They are not use to the different patterns here.
Also it is my take, that until GTE is here a few months we will not have accurate TA. Because the new invertors are feeling out a value level for GTE. As I seen these daily patterns turn into weekly, then into monthly, I will start to use TA more to determine PPs movement.
But for now, I trust the daily trading size & numbers more then the charts, to look ahead.
ONLYGODCANJUDGEU
I have not told anyone to buy or sell. I have been posting what patterns to look for and my reasoning for these patterns.
I know you are in pain, because the PPs continues on it's long trend lower. Try to learn to make money on down trending stocks. It will help you attitude.
PS; Has your inside guy, that keeps giving you news stopped ? I remember you always posting about your guy says, on RB last year. Do you know if we will be getting any PR from Mr Huff about the core business soon ? I don't follow RB any longer.
Lets look at todays trading pattern. This AM PPs went from $3.14 to $3.00, during that time trade size was mostly 1 to 5k. From 10:30 to 11:45 The PPs fluxed $3.02 to $3.05 With mixed trade size (ball park 60/40) (1 to 5k/ 100 to 500). Lunch hour retail felt todays bottom reached and trade size became mostly all under 500k at $3.02/$3.03.
Watch the large trades come back as PPs lowers this afternoon.
gbreez
Look at all the trades. Have you seen all those 100, 300, 500 trades sizes today? No; they are 1000, 3000, 4100. My point was larger trade size, 10 time normal, means larger investor accumulating as PPs lowers to new channel bottom.
We saw 100, 300, 500 trade sizes as the PPs went up. 11k is a good $30,000 dollar trade. Now do this 10 times down to $2.80 and 100 times back up to $3.30 over a few days and some hedge guy made some money.
The pattern of large trades down, small trades up is opposite from what you see on the OTC:BB. There, normally buys are larger on the way up. It's the emotion factor of the average retail trader on the American. The American is still full of emotional traders, not seasoned investors or traders.
Think of it this way, elementary school, many kids get their lunch money taken by bullies. Middle school fewer, and high school fewer yet. Experience learned over the years, changes what one will except and fears. Now trade on the OTC:BB, the American, then the NYSE. Each has different ways bullies try to take your money.
The OTC:BB has the market makers, both customer & service provider. The American has the hedge fund traders, (customer) with specialist, (service provider). The NYSE has personal brokers/dealers, (customers) with floor traders (service providers). They all take money from you, just use different methods.
The trick is to learn the methods. Day traders & institution fund traders have education, experience and work using sophisticated tools to learn the methods. Retail just keeps getting suckered. Most because of emotion, some just because of lack of tools, experience, and education.
We are very lucky, having this board to exchange info that will help all gain, tools, education, and experience. I know it's helped me many times. Pass it on!
Depending on where this accumulation channel forms we could get more than .045. Any where above .0225 for start of move would call for a higher top.
Depending on where this accumulation channel forms we could get more than .045. Any where above .0225 for start of move would call for a higher top.
Todays chart
ADX & DMI going down; Aroon going down; RSI going down; Macd divergence closed and flat below zero, all showing move down!
If we see increased trade sizes as PPs lowers IMO this a 50 cent 15% swing channel will form. $2.80/$3.30
A perfect day! Day traders day! MM day! 20% spread today! 10 % down, then 20% up, then 20% down, ending 10% up to PPs OPEN !!!
All large block day traders today, Average trade size today 143,730; more than double normal. Number of trades today 187; less than half normal! MMs chased the block trades all day.
Stock did not trade free today. IMO we saw the top at .035. I'll try to explain what I see as the next move and timing tonight. Along with a new pattern I noticed. May be raising My long target!
'rtb_all_american'
NO it didn't happen! NO large gap up close today!! I feel I have seen enough to stop saying I'm guessing on what is happening and will try to explain what pattern I see and why, tonight!
IMO we have the channel, first expected. The EOD gap up I noticed, 3 days before today, is a big part of what has happened. IMO get ready for a swing trade opp. I wanted them out, can't win them all. Their in. IMO
Dame .0001 !!! Missed again, twice in one day.LOL
Watch for a Gravestone Doji or Shooting Star, signs of reversal!
MMs chasing large block trades today ! Remember that happening before the last accumulation move.
DMI & Aroon weakening on continuation. IMO we saw the top today. Get ready to swing. I'm looking for a 15% retrace, then news or accumulation channel between 15%/20% below .03. (last target)
Next long sell profit target .045, next swing .035. swing buy any where below .028.
We are in the 7th day of a 9 day cycle high. It has gone 10 days and 8 days, average is 9 days.
eps; comment about news cycles looks good. We could see a PR tommorrow, monday or tuesday.
Hoping to re enter 50% @.028 10% down and 25% @ .025 10% more, with final 25% lump buy up 5% @ .027.
ecp & emk
ecp; I picked 10% retrace for 1st try, .028 order placed last night and missed it this AM. Dang .0001 LOL
emk; GTE long !! Although I just did swing a position on last support break.
'easy rider'
By definition; any trade at ask is a sale, because the order was to buy at the highest wanted price and vise versa for a trade at bid, it is a buy, because someone that owns stock is letting it go for the lowest price requested. The person placing the order is buying low and the person trading is selling high.
It becomes hard to remember , because for every buy there is a sale and every sale there is a buy.
(Try to remember buy low / sell high. Heard that before, it's an easy way to remember, bid low /ask high.) Matters not the size of the trade!
Sorry if my post saying hedge guys are selling on EOD trades above the ask confused you. It's kind of a special conclusion, I came to. To understand why those trades are happening.
Doc's explanation on institutional funds buying is the correct evaluation of trades at ask. But I didn't see that kind of trades being reported.
So I took liberties, with my experience of specialists, buying from a large customers, to maintain a good relationship and came up with the theory. Hedge guys are selling out at highs.
IMO Standard business practice, keep your best repeat customers, by servicing their every want and need! Loose short to gain long!
It's only a guess!!!
doc80ca
Haven't been following funds that close, but this guy follows and doesn't see institutions moving in.
Your guess is as good as mine, you have some good points. Any way it turns out, Just wanted to call unusual trading to boards attention. I have no answers just guesses, not event sure this matters at all. LOL
---------------------------------------
Posted by: rtb_all_american
In reply to: None Date:6/15/2005 9:11:09 AM
Post #of 3165
This could mean something. Like lowtrade posted earlier maybe a low volume momentum day yesterday. The two days before there was no institutional buying according to lycos.
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=GTE&mgp=20050614&i=3&h....
Just took a look at TA indicators and all looks like a continuation tommorrow. macd, rsi, cmf, all look good to great and my favorates DMI has lots to go before DMI+ crosses ADX, with up trend Aroon still in a continuing up trend channel, with not retrace indication.
Day 3; 10% of EOD volume, traded AH above ask! Nothing to add.
ecp1976 & conners
eps; IMO you have the idea, better to let one play go by then get caught it one your not confident in. As for other stocks I trade 3/4 of my portfolio in larger exchange stocks and 1/4th in penny land. Normally only one penny at a time. TNOG is the one I'm playing now. My watch list is just that and I don't recommend stocks until I play them. Then I can back up what I say with what is happening, not what I expect or guess.
Conners; Great plan! because it's your's !!!
'Stock Analyzer
YES I'm getting back in. What I'm working on now is, how much cash will I have to put in, to generate percentage profits that will warrant the next leg to .045. I normally like 25% on pennies and will not except less than a $500.00 profit. Short
This all will have to find a comfortable place in my mind. Can my new goals be reached, IMO yes .045 will be hit. That target is within reachable numbers. Can I get in before the flow numbers released and at what buy target will I except, is what I need to smooth out.
I could buy as high as .033 and still get 25%, but do I want to enter higher than I sold? or event at the same level as I sold? If I want a small retrace, will the next PR come before a retrace? That's where I'm at now.
At this very minute I'm thinking to wait for retrace, but will jump to buy, up to .033 if it runs before I see a retrace. I hate to buy into a run!! So I hope after more evaluation I'll come up with a comfortable mind set before I get stuck doing that!
So there's my head, this very minute, in my development of my next plan. LOL
Maybe I'm getting to detailed here! LOL I haven't event taken any time to study charts and TA closely yet. I haven't evaluated the MMs indications closly and I haven't taken a close look at how much cash I want to trade this time.
But yes, I'm not done trading TNOG yet. I also have to find new trading patterns to expect for opening an new swing trade. I like to lump longer, .045 and swing shorter, on the way to upper target.
From this you may see I don't expect .045 being reached in a week, but if it is the lump will become a short swing. All part of developing a plan, my normal one, long 1 to 2 months, short 1 to 2 weeks.
PS: your correct the move may happen faster than I completely develope my new trade. I didn't expect todays move, so I got caught off guard. IMO I have untill after the week end though. I don't see this running tommorrow or FRI without news! Then again, didn't I just say I got caught off guard! LOL
ecp1976
Emotion & expectations have nothing to do with my trading style. I don't expect anyone to trade the same as me. My plan was followed and buys & sells targeted before I entered. Plan and simple, my sell lump target was reached and I sold and am very happy!
Was I wrong to sell, when more will probably come, NO. Would someone else be wrong to sell because I posted I sold, YES!!!
The reason I post my buy/sell moves, is to back up my big mouth. It's stick to your targets, that I'm trying to show. Not I'm good at trading. Hope most realize that.
I see a continued climb and am very close to my next trade plan being complete.
Basiclly I look at company DD wize, study charts and TA indicators, and decide how much cash to tie up for how long. Then I pick targets. Place buys and sells when targets are reached. I will re evaluate my profit sell target, just as they become in veiw and raise them if warranted, but NEVER change my time & profit lose targets.
It's called working a plan and the main thing I'm trying to get across. Learn to develope a trading plan that works within you personal desires and needs and stick to the plan.
Many times this plan will not generate the results you want. But the goals you want will always be meet. Be them positive or negative. You will always know what to expect in your trade! My personal goals are based on time to tie money up, and percentages of profit wanted vs. percentage of loss, I will except. I always succeed, because I never get results that were not planed for!!
The real trick is developing the tools to choose reachable targets. You have to pick targets that all the vairable you look at will support. Over estimating will make your targets out of reach and you will end up closing out more trades because your time limit was reached, then your sell targets!
Best to everyone in finding and developing their indvidual plans!!!
ecp1976
Thank you! Looking for patterns to justify PPs movement. You may have found another one.
I've posted about the new high pattern being 9 days, until the recent pro active moves by MMs. And posted about the market savvy management. I'm taking a overall look into your idea, to see how it relates to highs and lows.
This could prove that management is also pro active to counter negative PPs movement. And may become an indicator for all to watch!
PS: I took profits today when my target was reached. This news cycle thing, could help me in picking a new entry point.
CMF indicates buying/selling pressure, not actual money flow in or out. NO "The AH trades were buys above the ask! And were made at the high range of PPs at the EOD. Which would create a positive indication when the CMF formular was applyed."
My point was Hedge guys selling with favored treatment from specialist who bought! It's called helping out a big customer and the shares bought, will be traded back into the system in the next days trading. Making the market!
The Chaikin Money Flow oscillator is calculated from the daily readings of the Accumulation/Distribution Line. The basic premise behind the Accumulation Distribution Line is that the degree of buying or selling pressure can be determined by the location of the close relative to the high and low for the corresponding period (Closing Location Value). There is buying pressure when a stock closes in the upper half of a period's range and there is selling pressure when a stock closes in the lower half of the period's trading range. The Closing Location Value multiplied by volume forms the Accumulation/Distribution Value for each period.
The first and most obvious signal to look for: is Chaikin Money Flow greater than zero? It is an indication of buying pressure and accumulation when the indicator is positive
The second item: determine how long the oscillator has been able to remain above zero. The longer the oscillator remains above zero, the more evidence there is that the security is under sustained accumulation. Extended periods of accumulation or buying pressure are bullish and indicate that sentiment towards the security remains positive.
The third indication: the actual level of the oscillator. Not only should the oscillator remain above zero, but it should also be able to increase and attain a certain level. The more positive the reading is, the more evidence of buying pressure and accumulation. There is such a thing as weak buying! This is usually a judgment call, based on prior levels for the oscillator
No idea, it's the one there now! Stated something like 6500 LBs pressure, pushing out 1000 ft of tubing! April 12th
Chain it down, listen & watch video at web site!! Right side top! Under Wilson project! http://www.titanoilandgas.com
I'll add one more left field guess, make one more left field call. A common sense, if I were them call.
With todays completely flat trading and second day of large block sales after hours. I do not expect a strong drop or channel to form.
IMO if the hedge guys still wanted a channel, today would have been a good day to start it, instead of selling at the top! (lower volume,pull back monentum)
justfrank
The specialist is buying, favorable treatment! To make a market!!
Didn't see that one, it just confirms hedge guys selling out. IMO We either reached the channel top or they gave up and we will become free trading up from here!
We'll see tommorrow and into the end of the week. TA indicators don't show a continuation, but a stall, small investors continuing to move in calls for a continuation.
My spidy sense tells me if the hedge guys take it down again, to reach a new channel bottom. Management will release another PR to counter!
We'll see what happens soon. LOL No one ever said owning GTEL/GTE was boaring!! LOL
Plan for a swing trade if it goes down strong!
As I said NO pattern, but I read this as the hedge fund guy channel, we were talking about, may not form at all. It may become an in & out play because they see the timing wrong to set up a channel. The small guys continue moving in and big guys continue moving out!
Very BIG guess, but I'm guessing big guys expected several weeks before new business execution announcements and felt it was a good time to set up a profit channel.
Here I go off topic for the TA board!
GTE has become market savvy, with a clear marketing effort the last several months. Haven't seen it for a year and a half, but IMO GTE management has become proactive to support PPs finally.
The built the business, the hell with the PPs attitude in the past, has reached the point in MR Huff business plan, that now calls for stock market growth to continue business growth.
I expect to see more support for the stock now! It's the time in the business plan! IMO MR Huff has many more swords on his desk, ready to be wielded as needed. Anyone remember the swords ? LOL
Only thing to say about todays trading is I saw little MM action, until the lack of trade volume at EOD, which probably has noting to do with MMs holding. This lack of trade volume at EOD, also happened yesterday.
Seems we are ending at highs of day, but no one selling up there. Charts stalling or lowering, volume declining and Halved today.
All showing what everyone knows. "The stock has been chained down, due to increased pressure readings" LOL
EOD comment for those watching for patterns.
Today we ended with 8 AH trades for 36,000 shares above the ask, or 5% of total volume.
Yesterday we had 15 for 86,000 above ask or 6% of total volume.
As always 2 days does not a pattern form. But we are seeing above last ask EOD, selling!!! Meaning someone is getting favorable treatment.
Yesterday ave trade size was about normal, with number of trades way up on news pop. Today trade size was below normal with slightly higher number of trades. This was occuring after the hedge fund enter on Mondays drop, when there were more trades, & smaller size.
All this is indicating continued small guys entering, and selling EOD AH, shows larger guys moving out daily! IMO
DID you buy between $2.95 and $3.30 today?
15 after hours orders closed at $3.32 for 86,900 shares, broken into 4200 & 10k blocks for $288,500. 6% of EOD volume settled out after hours. The players are playing.
Be aware! IMO All the 100 share buys, went right into their pockets, as the little guys bought into the run! Thank you, they just kept the profits on sales up to $3.48 and re entered $300k at $3.32.
Could this re enter at $3.32 show up expectation?, we could be seeing new channel bottom, Rather then a retrace to $2.80. It would be nice, if the news is helping create a higher channel, before the new one we expected actually happened.
Just some thoughts, if your prone to this type of trade, watch for an up morning, with good volume, there could be at least $300,000; AH volume worth, for sale higher, as a spec play!
You to could play with the big guys! You may be able to squeese 5 - 15% out of the morning rush hour. Pick your target, place your sell order early and watch!
Just realized the example was wrong, I'm so use to showing how a buy order is passed. Yours was a sell and you changed your order before your original order was reached. But I hope everyone gets the idea. Every time you move your order, you get at the back of the new line. Buying or selling.
I often say if you make your mind up to change your mind, in a fast moving stock, put it a couple clicks above ask or below bid. You did this, but it was so fast you still didn't close.
gbreez
One thing many traders in a fast moving stock don't realize is every time you place an order it goes into a que (line of others), The sooner you get in line and the longer you stay the better your chance to close your order.
Everytime you change your mind, during the day, you get out of your shorter line, you've been waiting in and getting into the back of a new line!!!
So say you had 20 in front of you, when you placed your first order, $2.35, and 12 orders were closed, on the run up. Now you at 8. Then emotion takes over, you move to $3.45 for an extra $20 and are back with 20 in front of you again. You don't close and move back into your original line, which has grown to 20 again!
This is not to be a wack at you personnally, Many, many many do this! Just wanted to point out the possible problems with, "Lane jumping" $20 dollars worth of emotion, cost you your profit for the day!
gbreez
Emotion !! Pick a number and stick to it. Rule #1 NEVER chase a running stock!Rule #1 1/2 Let the PPs come to you!
Rule #1 3/4 Every time you get out of line, the other line passes you by! Stand still and wait your turn! IMO
Daily trading update. Seeing MMs swap fest, with mini holds. IMO they are holding plenty of buy orders on their desks, which will have to be let go sometime today.
MMs are working today! My gut says we could see .026/.027 today buy not .03. Also expect tomorrow a down day, without news!
If I'm correct, could have one more swing buying opp before flow numbers and .03 target reached.
starboy
Yes the lesson is "STICK to your TARGET"!! It was 20% on a$2.80 buy, for $3.36 and I lowered it to 15% at $3.22! LOL
Thanks
OK just my luck. LOL NASA news out!!!! Boy they gobbled me up fast!!!