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Agreed. Normally, my sale of some shares is enough to double a stock. At $1.35, the sock has barely moved. It does however appear to have created a floor for now. Sorry guys. I usually have more power than this.
MF4
Use em or lose em. He probably turned around and sold them at the market. Nobody wants to buy Cortex and hold it. What a bad beat story! Hah!
Which is why my spider-sense is telling me that a BP with a few available ("4 or 5 that we're currently looking at") orphans will throw them in as part of a partnership deal that involves the Ampakine estate being traded for a huge chunk of change and scientist sharing/collaboration.
Draw your own conclusions. I could be smoking crack, but with worldwide rights to AD suddenly available, I don't think it's that ludicris.
MF4
At 25% of it's post ADHD price, I'd say it's way oversold. It's free at this price. How many more haircuts can it take? It's already bald!
You're gonna wake up one day to the announcement that BP paid $500M for Ampakines, COR got some in licensed compounds and declared a one time dividend of $5 share to stockholders of record the current day. But at $9/share, you will have missed out.
OK. Maybe I'm smoking crack, but $1.40 is darn cheap. I know I sold some at $1.35 because I was irked. But, since then I've bought some $2.5 strike options. They are cheap too.
MF4
Does this scenario hold water?
With worldwide rights available now, COR does a deal with a BP trading away all Ampakines for $500M and 2 in-licensing compounds. The share price rockets to $7 and COR sells 10 million shares at that price.
COR gives the nuero compounds to the BP for future royalties and gets the two in-licensing compounds for its future product revenue stream. ??????
MF4
Listen live:
http://events.ipresentations.net/Webcasts/2006_12/BMO_HealthCare2006/Lobby.php Register then click on Pharmacuetical
Congrats! I've followed this thing for 12 years, and in one trade you bought more shares than I have in total, for less money.
MF4
Thoughts? Yes, COR bottomed at $1.32 - the same day as I sold a substantial position at $1.35 I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock double in the next week. For whatever reason - I am an extremely accurate contraindication.
It seems that the universe only reverses course when I've suffered a loss. But, after 12 years in COR, my position finally went in the red under $2 and I just had enough. Waaaahhhhhh - woe is me.
Anyway. As the price moves higher, I think about buying back in what I sold and taking the loss. But, that would just crater the stock. Damned if I do - damned if I don't. I may have been Hitler in a past life. Ha.
Relax. I'm keeping what I still have and not buying any more. So, my karma will probably keep COR between $1.45 and $2 for eternity because it's the only place that I lose regardless. Smart people will trade the range.
I have checked out of this emotionally. I am insane because why would somebody who's not insane continue to do the same thing (invest in "the market") year after year when the results are so negative? At least I'm not buying anything these days. Though, I'll probably screw that up again next year when I get my one positive month and start to feel "lucky" again.
Sorry for the "too much information". Just letting those of you out there with the stomach for gambling in on my little "slam dunk" scenario. Hopefully somebody can benefit from my misfortune? All I ask is buy me a beer in ten years in Vegas when COR gets bought out for $2.25/share and let me whine for 5 minutes. Fair enough?
MF4
Told ya
I just set the floor for COR at $1.35.
I have no idea why this thing keeps selling off, but I'm tired of it. I just sold a substantial portion of my position at $1.35 The odds are it will go up now big-time. This has happened to me 90% of the time I trade stocks.
You can benefit from my horrendous track record by loading up now. Good luck all,
MF4
Ampakines have a big problem that COR can't solve. Since this is a brand new class of drug it will take a thousand tests, ten years of various levels of usage and studying other food/drug interactions and real world usage to get a full understanding of their effects, good and bad, in an area as nebulous as cognitive performance. Everybody's different.
I mean, at some point, the FDA has to take a chance and let some of this stuff get on the market. Something, somewhere. Hell, I could take a few doses and tell you what it does or doesn't do. But, at this rate, COR will be broke and I'll be dead before anybody gets to use any Ampakines.
Maybe the black market is the way to go?
MF4
Doing a deal with Organon is worth probably $2M. That's enough to run for another month or two and that wouldn't be worth the bother. There'd be nothing left.
I think Stoll needs to come up with a plan and tell us. It would be nice to hear that the orphan development idea is off the table. That happens (not focusing on Ampakines) and I'm selling.
MF4
Dosing by May? Another 6 months? If the tox trials are over in a few weeks and the FDA drags it's heels as long as possible, aren't we looking at February at the latest?
Thanks for the explanation Neuro and GFP. So, we're assuming that the new tests won't clarify the problem much, and that's why the stock is selling off?
How should an investor proceed? Obviously, COR has a leak. That's why the stock sold off at $3.81 after the hold was lifted. What is the rational approach now? Buy, sell or hold?
MF4
GFP, why do you say "It's doubtful that we'll ever get to dose at 800mg BID again with CX-717"? Isn't 800mg about 1% of the heroic dose that caused the histo problem? If they will allow .5% (400-500mg), why not go crazy with the cheeze-whiz and go for the full 1% dose? We're talking one-one hundredth of the "heroic" dose that caused the problem.
I'm no FDA genious, but why is everybody so worried about problems seen from a hyper-overdose? Why would anybody in their right mind think CX-717 should be scrapped? I have posted this question a number of times before, and nobody will answer it.
MF4
I think COR got burned on the river (poker talk). It's time to chop the pot as they say. While I used to think COR was worth $50-100/share, after 12 years of dashed hopes and lowered expectations, I will settle for $6/share.
The science is worth at least that much. COR doesn't have the deep pockets, industry contacts, financial and trial expertise to make this valuable science payoff for shareholders. It just doesn't. If Stoll intends to PIPE away some more shares, only to get screwed by the FDA again, I'm against that.
This management team just couldn't get it done. They gave it a good try, but I think they are too small and BP had their FDA mole put the screws to COR. No investigation will ever prove it, this is just the way corrupt America works, like it or not.
Stoll needs to have a face to face with the best pre-hold BP deal rep and structure something now! In exchange for a generous deal, COR agrees to not allow a bidding war. This benefits both parties because all it will take is for any BP to put a serious offer on the table, and a bidding war will erupt. All the BPs know that Ampakines are a multi-Billion dollar product. They are just waiting for COR to cry uncle.
I'm sure Stoll is gambling on the FDA raising the ADHD limits and then he hopes to get more than $6/share and/or keep COR as an independent company. But, the FDA could keep their thumb on COR even with good results. I believe the conspiracy is real and therefore would rather have part of something, than all of nothing.
Ideally, we get a buyout for $6/share and some sort of share/preferred or whatever that lets us participate in the future royalty stream.
Time is a wasting Stoll. Bring us a buyout deal at least $6/ share and I'll vote for it.
At anything under $2.50, I'll hold forever or go bust. But, I'm tired of getting burned by COR.
MF4
I finally figured out how COR will make me rich. Assuuming the stock price continues the slow slide to under a buck and Stoll holds out for a good deal, the FDA will finally break Cortex. The company will be run by a steward with a mailbox and essentially just hold IP and trade pink sheets for fractions of a penny.
I will buy all the available supply for $2,000. I will hold it and wait for Lilly to bring something to market. After it's been making money for about 3 years, I will sue Lilly for $5 Billion dollars claiming patent infringement.
I will find some greedy prick lawyer to represent me for 50% of the settlement. Lilly will make us an offer to surrender our IP rights for $1 Billion. After the lawyer takes his cut and Uncle Sam steals his share, I'll have $250 Million for myself.
I regret that we never did have our party in Las Vegas, so I throw one and foot the bill. All of the regulars and long-time posters are invited. I'll even pay for GPF and Neuro's entire trips! Hell, if there's only a handfull of us still alive at that point, maybe I'l pay for all of you guys? When you see this scenario unfolding many years from now, send me your contact info and I'll keep you on the invite list.
MF4
Bottom line is if COR gets partnered with a BP, the FDA will find the justification it needs to raise the dosing restrictions and suddenly the good news will flow.
This is the reality of corrupt America these days.
The histo problem shows up at 100 times the ADHD effective dose (800mg). There's plenty of room for error in that already. The FDA is helping some BP steal COR for a song.
MF4
Suggestion? Stoll should have a beer with Lilly's CEO and persuade him to buy COR for $10/share and go full steam ahead. Pay off the FDA and get the dosage limit raised for ADHD. Make it a number 1 priority to get ampakines to market ASAP and watch the cash come rolling in.
I'm sick of this running on fumes and/or partnering with another lame company like Shire or Organon. Patents have a shelf life too and Cortex's snails pace has dragged on too long. This is viable, valuable pharmacology! I wish Lilly would quit being such tightwadds and just buy Cortex already. They are idiotic to be hoping to waste time to save a few bucks in court. In one year, with Lilly's muscle, they would make enough profit to pay for Cortex thrice over.
By the way, my snide comment was tongue in cheek.
MF4
bad management
Forgive me RBlatch. I, too needed to purge.
Can't understand why no BP is falling over themselves to buy COR outright?
GFP, I couldn't agree with you more in your assessment of the homeland security department.
Unfortunately, the supreme court is not likely to be against the patriot act. Remember, these are the same great leaders that voted that nobody's private property is safe from eminent domain seizure as long as there is an economic benefit as a result of the redevelopment (Kelo case in CT.)
I am greatly releived by America's refusal to believe the terrorist propaganda and overwhelming message sent to the Bush administration as a result of all the Democratic victories yesterday. Not that the Dems are any good, it's just that the REPS had become bloated, arrogant a-holes with no respect for the Constitution. Supporting a dictators every whim. We need balance.
Is there some reason why a BP wouldn't be stumbling over themselves to just buy COR lock, stock and barrel? I don't get it? It's so cheap at this price. Why wouldn't Lilly just try to buy it for half a Billion?
What am I missing here?
MF4
Are side effects that big of a deal?
Chemo-therapy causes temporary hair loss. How did it get past the FDA? Someone referred to the histo findings as "lesions". I don't recall that ever being declared as the issue. Does anybody else?
Until we know what the actual "histo" issue is, how can anybody know how bad the issue is? Could the issue be an elevated amount of some enzyme in the liver? That enzyme being a natural byproduct of metabolizing CX-717?
I'm no expert, so could someone explain what, exactly is a "histo finding"?
Thanks,
MF4
Neuro, you said "Ampakines are not going to be ruined as a class...but there is a significant possibility that CX717 might not be usable for ADHD".
Why would anybody conclude that CX717 might not be usable for ADHD, from the CC? Please poke holes in my logic:
1. CX717 showed positive response in humans at 800mG dose with no histo issues.
2. At least two species showed bad histo at 75 times that dose after two weeks, or was it three months?
3. If COR spends three months looking for a direct bad histo/dose relationship - they will identify a saturation level that causes the problem.
4. Let's say the problem shows up at 20 times the (800mG) dose.
5. COR shows the FDA the results. A month later the FDA says OK you're clear to test CX717 at up to 5 times the (800mG) dose. This could and probably will happen Q107.
So, by March (one full year after the hold) 2007, COR now knows the dose level it can test, and the effective dose is well within it's upper limit. We know the stuff works. Net result: CX717 is safe at 800mG.
So there'll be a PIPE before then, if no BP deal. But, there's a distinct possibility of a BP deal. At this price with this much potential, how could they resist?
Why would anybody be surprised to see a problem at 75 times normal dose per day for 2 weeks? Wouldn't most drugs, salt, sugar, caffiene, aspirin cause some histo issue if overdosed to that degree?
The negative from the call is that the time frame got extended one year from the original hold in March 2006(already six months through that delay as of today) and additional PIPE is now necessary. So, we'll probably get another 10% dilution. COR sold off 40% today. That's an over-reaction!
Somebody please tell me why I'm wrong?
MF4
You're correct that the next few months will be a gut check. But, I would be very surprised if it went much lower. If I were a BP looking for a pipeline, COR would be a no-brainer at this price.
I expect an offer within the next two weeks, if not a bidding war. This really isn't nearly as bad news as the market reaction indicates.
I have to ask myself if I'm willing to increase my position sub $2? It's already the most heavily-weighted position in my portfolio.
MF4
The share move today was a vote of no confidence in Stoll.
I think he could have spun this situation a lot more positively while being truthful. I think he could have made a better case with the FDA. He painted this as if CX-717 is dead for ADHD.
In reality, at 75 times the highest "normal" dosage (800mG - already tested with positive results = effective treatment) there were some temporary cellular abnormalities (whatever that means???) observed. So, if I were CEO, I'd make a case that now we know there is a Max Tolerated Dose and we need to run more tests at various levels between the therapeutic dose and the cellular abnormalities observed dose and establish an "OD" level.
That might take 3 months. At this point, COR could present the results that the FDA would be able to commit to, and then it's time for a phase 3, right?
This is in reality what the situation probably is. I would hardly view this situation a dire, but Stoll left that taste in everybody's mouth - hence the massive sell-off over-reaction.
I've had it with Stoll. Give this company and it's technology to someone that can paint the picture realistically without being so dire. The reality is COR has not established an overdose level yet and until they can do that very specifically, CX-717 is going nowhere. But, this should be expected!
The truly terrible part of this is that now more than ever, it appears that CX-717 really does provide a benefit. And at the right dose level would be a blockbuster.
You lost $200K since $5/sh, or overnight?
Like you, I lost a bunch. Fortunately, my DSL server went down for 4 hours so I couldn't watch the torture.
MF4
I believe getting ADHD approved in this new class of drugs will be far more time-consuming and financially draining than little Cortex can survive.
Therefore, I am now in favor of a buyout north of $7/share. The FDA will never allow Cortex a full pass on it's own. We need the muscle of a large American BP.
I've waited long enough. Stoll and Company can't do it on their own.
MF4
A deal with Organon? God NO!!
THAT would kill CORTEX! Talk about watching paint dry. The only deal worth doing is with an aggressive BP that will pump big money into advancing CX-717 in one indication.
I think the FDA is helping a BP by putting the screws to COR. This is just reality in corrupt America. The sooner COR comes to terms with Lilly, the better.
Partnering with Lilly, the FDA concerns would magically melt away and ADHD will be approved at 800mG dose.
MF4
One thing's for sure: This thing is on sale big time.
Not worth selling at these levels. trying to buy back in below $2 might be missed when it bounces.
The market is hammering COR. Currently taping at $2.
At 75 times a normal (1,000mG) dose, there are temporary cell abnormalities observed. All this does is indicate that there is now a dosage ceiling.
Why is this seen as so negative? Somebody enlighten me?
"increase BDNF gene expression" Hmmm. Is this another way of saying "cellular changes"?
Well, only 7 more hours before the nervous Nellies give me another haircut. Bring it on. maybe I'll make a wig.
MF4
I have no idea what kind of number would be the first offer, but it should be at least twice current price.
And yes, I would expect a bidding war, especially if something was put on the table as soon as this weekend.
And I think it could happen. If COR opens around $2 on Friday. I would think that would be a slam dunk price for one of the previously interested parties.
MF4
You're right Alert. There is no known fatal dose for CX-717. But at least now we know that something at 75 to 100 times normal can cause some cellular issues. Now, they can scale down the dose to the point where no cellular issues appear after 3 months, and maybe the FDA will agree that that's the MTD. Once that's established, it's full steam ahead testing at a lower dose.
I have no doubt that 800mG is well below the MTD. So, once these studies are done, CX-717 should be really close to being put on the market. Then three years later, a more potent CX will take it's place.
Why all the pessimism? It'll probably still get to market in 2009 as previously expected. And will gross $Billions.
MF4
The other explanation is the conspiracy theory. Interested BP didn't want to pay Stoll's price, so they got their mole at the FDA to keep making COR jump through hoops.
Stoll gets the message now. May be willing to play ball. If I'm right, look for the BP to buy all shares for sale tommorrow and accumulate all next week, with a deal announced the following week. Is a hostile takeover possible?
I have no idea what a BP would offer COR, but I am now much more open to getting a decent partnership with big pockets and pull with the FDA. Obviously at a lower price.
Obviously, the hurdles a small company like Cortex have to face in this arena are extremely formidable. I wouldn't be surprised if a BP utilizes the coming share price weakness as an opportunity to swallow COR whole.
When you see the huge volume tommorrow, ask yourself "who's buying?"
Bladerunner,
I think you are over-reacting. 75 times normal dosage is bound to cause some issues.
The market, however, will probably over-react like you.
MF4
Thanks Neuro,
This is what I understood also. So at a dose that's 75 times higher than the highest dose that gave positive ADHD results (800mG), they noticed some non-permanent cellular changes in one species.
The animal didn't die, suffer a stroke or anything else life threatening and everyone is acting like CX-717 is dead. I don't get it? Who's gonna take 75 hits of CX-717 at the same time? I bet if you took 30 hits of codiene at the same time, you'd OD. But you can take 2.5 times that much CX-717 and after a few weeks of daily overdosing, you develop some temporary cellular changes. Maybe those changes correlate to a better brain? Stoll had to treat the results with care for the FDA, so he didn't belittle them, but it sounds like in normal doses, this stuff is pretty darn safe!!!! Am I missing something???
Is there any sanity left on this board?
Yes, the continually expanding schedule for a green light is disappointing, but does it justify the inevitable haircut we will see Friday on huge volume? It doesn't appear so.......
MF4
I don't get it? They were concerned about cellular changes noted in rats at 75 times the highest dosage (800mg) tested in humans? 75 times is OD level, right? Why wouldn't there be an ontoward reaction?
Also, are they sure that the cellular changes are negative? Maybe the cellular change directly correlates to improved cognition? Obviously, I don't know what I'm talking about.
MF4