Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
BTD is the precursor to the clinical trial results that will yes move the needle. BTD will change the way the POSITIVE results will be viewed. BTD is the FDA's way of saying we like what you have so let's get it to market fast.
Here is a little perspective Shane.
We all know the private raises have a double negative on SP because of diluting and zero risk warrants. Up to this point it has been deemed the best option to raise $'s.
From my perspective all that matters is that Pro-140 makes it to the finish line meaning a buyout. The current SP is not an accurate measurement of our investment, however it is a constant reminder that causes one to question if they are missing something that is going to make for a bad ending. We all are fearful of making a bad decision. Pears does an over the top job illustrating that talk that can creep in to our minds.
Here is the bottom line...the macro view, and the question that we are all trying to measure. What will it take in terms of clinical data and FDA support to get the deep pockets of BP to step up and pull the trigger. A wise investor once told me BP does not move until it has to. BP is willing to pay substantially more for a sure thing than look stupid purchasing a drug that ends up in a ditch. So if you are GILD or GSK where is the tipping point? IMHO BTD Approval is where everything heats up. This will send a strong message to BP that the FDA is in our corner and Pro-140 approval is not a pipe dream but rather a forgone conclusion and sooner than later. BP will pull every move they can to bully CYDY and prolong the pathway to approval. We are a problem that they would like to see disappear. This is rough sledding when you are talking about reshuffling the deck on Billions of revenue.
The reason to remain calm is the data is going to continue to be strong and I believe the FDA see's it the same way. Can't make 5x - 20x without some pain and uncertainty.
Luv, that is correct, some Warrants are at $1 and there are approximately a million warrants at $1.35. The point is not what the warrants are priced at it is the purchase price of the shares that go with the issuing of warrants. The majority are at .75 and those are the shares that are being dumped in the .70's range. Until that inventory of sellers is cleaned out or we get major news that is where we will trade IMO-the .70's.
I thought I would weigh in after all the speculation today. All IMHO of course.
SP has been trading tightly for nearly six months- basically .65-.75. The majority of shares purchased in the private offerings were at .75 with 1 warrant awarded for every 2 shares purchased at .75. So do the math. 75K gets you 100k shares and 50k warrants. Most offerings require a six month hold before you can sell your shares. I know I have drilled this into the ground but this is the reason why the SP cannot break out above .77 and support is at .70. There are millions of shares that were purchased at .75 to acquire the rights to risk free warrants priced at .75. This is a business - build a position and minimize exposure. If I can invest 75k and recover very close to my entire investment and own 50k warrants I sleep really well because the worst case scenario is basically break even. Not everyone plays it that way. I for one believe this is a home run so I may be considered greedy for hanging on to all my shares in addition to the warrants. I have enough confidence as to have thrown it down on three private raises. It is a roller coaster of emotions because I could easily sell my shares and keep the warrants and invest somewhere else and relax. I'm not a cheerleader I'm a calculating business man. My personal opinion is simple: The data is strong enough to overcome management's imperfections and we are very close to getting an answer as to if this opinion is correct.
Until CYDY has been sufficiently derisked this is the trading range we are going to see. Blue Horse is right on the money. Until we get news on BTD, ODD, or Adjunct Primary Endpoint completed we are going to trade tightly. BTD is the tipping point. That will signal if Nader is on the same page as the FDA. Pivotal to say the least. I will either be a fool or a genius for keeping ALL my shares. Many on this board are in the same predicament. It's been a four year journey for me and I'm going to grind it out until we cross home plate. I stay connected to this board as one resource to make sure I am not missing information that tells me it's time to pull the plug. Up to this point there is NOTHING that tells me to do anything but stay the course.
Thank you BH. That is clear thinking....everything else noise.
For the record. Nobody exercising Warrants here. Most are in the money if sold at over .75. The shares that were purchased to obtain the warrants are being sold. That's the strategy that is keeping a lid on the SP. That is why there is so much resistance at .77. Dumping the cheap shares and keeping the Warrants with no risk. every time we do a raise we extend the situation.
Golden Quarter is an organic uplist. $2 plus SP.
With CROI apon us it is anybody's guess if we will get one or more major catalysts to hit at precisely the right time-parlaying CROI into a major tipping point. What we do know is Nader has put off a major raise to the last minute for some reason. I have to believe something is brewing. Is the golden quarter a mirage or an oasis? I'm getting really thirsty.
Funny how no news translates to doom and gloom. That is what happens to the human mind when it is not reminded of the facts- it is left to conjure up the worst. Did anybody really expect news at this moment.
Next 30 days BTD-HUGE. Next 60 days primary endpoint Adjunct P3-HUGE. I expect BTD Approval and very positive P3 Adjunct data and that will move the needle. I do agree with Lawman on two points; CROI will need fresh news to move the SP...and yes I would like to see Anthony present at CROI.
Get that out of your head Pears. The data will be strong, the question isn't if the data will be strong, it's how long do we have to wait to get the data. Time passing and playing the waiting game on news is like watching ice melt in a 33 degree room- staying patient and not making wild assumptions is where we are. At this moment everything is on schedule.
I think we need new positive news to accompany CROI for much movement in SP. We are definitely in a holding pattern waiting for ODD, BTD, enrollment and primary endpoint P3 Adjunct, and an update on Mono enrollment. I'd like to see a positive PR on all of the above in February however it may be March. The important thing is that it is a thumbs up on all fronts and I don't think it is unrealistic for that to happen. Nader's golden quarter is dependent on it as is the valuation for the next private raise.
Utmost respect Chump. Hopefully we will have chance to meet when we celebrate the buyout. Maybe at the track:)
Your a good Soul Chump. Enjoy the day with your son. I have two sons 28 and 31 and a couple of grand children. I play 36 holes a couple of times a month at my club with my 28 year old scratch golfer- I cherish those outings as I'm sure you do.
So Chump you jumped the gun. Sounds official that safety data has been satisfied. Great news - one less hurdle with the FDA. GptStx is backing you and he's a whale with 3M shares - I'll bite.
It's simple, nothing has changed, no reason to make this a big deal...we will need safety data from P3 Mono and that has always been the case. Will likely come at interim far below the 300 patient enrollment. Not being disrespectful to Chump - those are the facts until proven otherwise.
Chump you are trusted and loved. Show me the data when you are able to locate it.
Thank you Pears, that was my understanding. Yes P3 Mono Interim data is key data point. It may all end right there.
Chump, I find it hard to believe safety data is now a non factor with the FDA. My understanding was that the P3 Mono would supply the supportive safety data needed due to the lack of numbers. If safety portion is now satisfied that is great news. Can you post that information directly from the clinical site or link to it?
Agree on timeline Baller. There is no reason why this cannot happen like clock work other than the unpredictable FDA. P3 data will be strong and the least of my concerns - FDA is the wildcard. I'm more than ready for a Golden Quarter!
Your welcome Sip it. And yes it would be a great Valentines gift. Lots of catalysts that could be PR'd at any time.
Once again I'm with you as the gravity of the BTD decision should not be taken lightly. I was in PVCT a couple years ago and the stock was at $2 on Friday and BTD denial came out after the market closed. Monday open .30. If they'd received approval it would have opened at $4. CYDY is not in the same boat that PVCT was and BTD will not break the deal. It just sends a message that Nader and the shareholders that are long are not on the same page as the FDA in terms of where Pro-140 is in the approval process.
My gut says we get BTD Approval some time in February - Valentines day would be sweet and just in time for CROI. Fingers crossed.
Sip it, FYI nobody is selling or exercising warrants at this SP. The pressure is from the selling of the shares that were purchased to acquire the warrants. Warrants will be exercised only when they are in the money. The majority are at .75 with some at $1.
Your post talking about the importance of BTD Approval is accurate. This is IMO vital to clearing the road for BLA submission and continue are seemingly good graces with the FDA. It would seem the probability of BTD Approval is quite high or Nader would not have applied. The only area of concern I have is I have seen BTD denied for lack of safety data. In this case it would seem that Pro-140 is quite safe - the only issue would be is the quantity of data or patient base adequate to meet FDA safety requirements for BTD Approval. Coming into play is the current status of number of patients that have been enrolled in the P3 Mono. That is where the real support will come from in terms of safety. The way I see it BTD is critical to say the least. If denied it will be a delay in gaining approval-if granted it expedites approval and will be the tipping point we have been waiting for.
Misiu, please come back and give us your insight on a daily basis...it is a welcome perspective.
Many high integrity compassionate people on this board. Great to be a part of something bigger than myself. As my father said when it is a win win scenario you're in the right place. This is about MUCH more than $.
The Sheikh has been on a good run...let it continue with his bullish perspective on Pro-140 - Logic says GILD is going to move on CYDY at some point. The longer they wait the more $'s for us.
Just curious would you take a guaranteed $5 per share right now or wait and risk it all for the possibility of $10-$20 per share in 12 months?
Jboat, that is the game. It is pure logic. Taking a loss of .05 per share on 1M shares is $50k. So it cost you 50k to own 500k warrants- that's a risk of .10 per share with tremendous upside. Keep in mind there is generally a 6 month restriction on selling shares purchased on the private raise - at least that has been the case with all of the private raises I have participated in. That is IMO a major drag on the SP in addition to being an OTC stock.
I'll say it again we need to parlay some catalysts in a tight window and blow this wide open. No more delays, just boom, boom , boom. When the tables turn there is going to be huge pent up demand with a much tighter supply of sellers. That's when we up-list and get this show on the road.
We know they are going to have to do another raise in addition to the $1M they just announced. The question is when are they going to raise the $10M? De your broker discuss terms and a date?
Yep.75 is the ceiling until a flurry of positive news breaks this wide open. Until such time it's the dump the private offering shares and retain the risk free warrants. I'm a contrarian- purchased on three private raises and never sold a share. This is going to be a very big pay day.
Not to speak for Chump but IMO this will have very little impact because it is such a small raise. The takeaway here is they are funding for a very short gap. That tells me they expect to release positive news in the near term that will move the SP. If this was not the case they would raise a minimum of $10M.
Wallstreet, I agree with your logic.
IMO, the challenge is compressing enough good news into a short enough period of time to create enough momentum to get us over $2 and out of the manipulative and restrictive OTC space. CROI, BTD Approval, ODD approval, primary endpoint P3, 100% rollover opting for extension are all on the radar. In addition hopefully an expedited P3 Mono Enrollment to name a few. The tipping point is upon us. You know Nader has to be thinking they can hit a couple of these catalysts and boost SP before the next raise.
This is like going on a really long whitewater rafting trip and up to this point it's been relatively calm waters with a few Class 1 and 2 rapids mixed in. We are now approaching the last part of the float which concludes with Class 5 water-where it ALL goes down...the reason why I decided to take the rafting trip in the first place...to be part of something extraordinary.
Scary for YOU Pears
No problems. Did anyone expect news from the company in January?
The immediate catalysts are BTD and ODD Approval and primary endpoint completed Adjunct P3. Those are February or even March timelines. Status on P3 Mono is also lurking. February is big because there is a strong possibility that some of these catalysts are met prior to Feb. 16 which would garner BP's undivided attention at CROI.
The fact that we have what looks to be 100% of the patients that have completed the Adjunct P3 opting to stay on Pro-140 is great news. The pace of enrollment is due to the thorough screening process that is being executed by Nader to insure optimal results- with only 30 patients they can't afford errors that allow an unsuitable patient into the study. From the grandstands this all looks simple...it is not. It's called the FDA Gauntlet. Getting it right is far more important than getting it done fast but carelessly and being sent back to the drawing board. You don't really get a second chance.
When there is no news people focus on the SP and negativity sets in with all that COULD go wrong. Don't forget about how much has a very high possibility of going right. Pro-140 is highly effective and very safe with basically no side effects. This will all come out in the P3 data.
There are varying levels of skin in the game here but it's all relative. My thinking is we have a real good chance of succeeding here at some level. I can't see Pro-140 getting thrown in the ditch. May not get the huge 10-20 bagger but we are going to win. Wouldn't be in this if I didn't believe in what we have. Nothing in the previous studies say Pro-140 is a fluke or ineffective. Remember we initially started as a holiday solution away from HAART-and that was a Billion$ valuation. I like where we stand. This is no time to let Fear get the best of you-get clear on what we have and where we are right now. I'm excited as hell!
Are you kidding me Pears? The space between your ears is rampant with paranoia and negative opinions. I have never seen anybody run so hot and cold. What is the purpose in that post? As Wallstreet stated "sell 90% of your position" or better yet sell it all.
Nice buckysherm. That's what I'm talking about... the ability to see the forest through the trees.
Thank you for your reply and perspective. What I do agree with is how important BTD Approval is to the future prospects of Pro-140. We either have a paved road and confidence from the FDA or it is all uphill. I find it very unlikely Nader would apply unless the FDA heavily encouraged BTD submission. I'm on pins and needles awaiting this one outcome because I've seen other Biotech's get buried if denied. With close to 500k shares I obviously believe BTD Approval is all but a done deal.
How can you be so sure that BTD alone would trigger a buyout? Are you saying that assures a buyout at some point in time in the future or when BTD is approved? Valuation will increase as milestones are achieved- with BTD alone how much could we realistically expect. Please tell me what I am missing here Sip it?
Thank you for a logical explanation to keep Pears from jumping off a bridge. For as much as he seems to think he knows he exercises no vision in terms of how this plays out. Once again CYDY is not jumping from .75 to $8 overnight. It will run up over the course of a couple months minimum before being purchased. Then at $4,$5,$6 the offer will come in. Pears there's your 60-70% premium to get you to 10 bagger heaven. Those numbers are for BTD and Adjunct Aporoval. The price tag is much higher the deeper we go into P3 Mono. Let's hit the milestones and watch the SP appreciate.
I knew we had something in common....been a 5-6 index for a long time. Best game in the world cause you can play for pretty much your entire llife while gripping and sipping - love that tag line. Lol. I gotta believe you'd be a hoot to play with.
Thank you 5TOP for clarifying what I have read many times. That data is one reason why I have been so bullish on the prospects of Pro-140. IMO the results of both P3's will be stronger than the previous P2b. Just the fact that the first 7 patients that completed Adjunct have decided to go on the extension study speaks volumes.
After a year of negotiating protocol for Adjunct and what seemed to be a year of disappointing delays we are now positioned. Would Nader now be viewed as an overachiever if we were to receive BTD Approval, ODD Approval, and Adjunct enrollment and primary endpoint completed ALL just prior to CROI. Would that be enough to create the tipping point we have been waiting for? Would that be the foundation of "Nader's Golden Quarter?
Pro-140 is disruptive, period.... how disruptive is the multi-billion $ question. How greedy will everyone be?I'm talking about both CYDY shareholders and BP. Game on!