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CSP - looks like you have an empty-netter! Nice forward-thinking!
SGTI - Did they hit one out of the park? First response to first glance is Wow.
bluesky - thoughts on today's action? I haven't seen any other SPAC warrants act this way, although the volume is good.
yeah, go figure. Why bother getting approved if you're going to tank after? ... unless the mkt hasn't figured this out yet. NITE sure has a lot of shares to sell, and he's doing us buyers a favor i think.
Bought another 5k at 1.40
That should turn out to be a nice purchase, assuming the common doesn't tank.
Looking forward to an uplist in the coming weeks/months.
AXG merger denied. Surprised at this result considering the language in PRs about delaying a vote if necessary.
AXG halted
Warrants not reacting as quickly as I had thought; has to do w/ OTCBB i think, but I may actually have to buy more <shudder>
Next up is AXG in about an hour; hoping to go 2-for-2 !
CFQCF/CFQWF - successful SPAC vote for merger w/ Wowjoint, a chinese heavy machinery co.
Warrants should double+ from here considering intrinsic is close to $3
Here's the Wowjoint investor presentation:
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1429360/000114420409065965/v169783_ex99-1.htm
SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET! Let's unwind that risk discount!
CFQWF - thumbs-up on the vote! Let's see what happens to the warrants in the coming days
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Fundamental-Acquisition-prnews-1093691428.html?x=0&.v=46
HONG KONG, Feb. 12 /PRNewswire-Asia/ -- China Fundamental Acquisition Corporation (OTC Bulletin Board: CFQCF, CFQWF, CFQUF) ("China Fundamental " or the "Company") announced that at an extraordinary general meeting held today, its shareholders have approved the previously announced acquisition by China Fundamental of Beijing Wowjoint Machinery Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively, "Beijing Wowjoint"). The Company will issue a press release when the transaction closes, which the parties expect to occur by later in February, subject to satisfaction of all closing conditions, of which there can be no assurance.
Subsequent to the transaction, China Fundamental will change its name to Wowjoint Holdings Limited. China Fundamental's units, ordinary shares and warrants will continue to trade on the OTCBB under the symbols CFQUF, CFQCF, CFQWF, respectively, until new symbols are issued.
In addition to approving the acquisition of Wowjoint and the change in the Company's name, China Fundamental shareholders also approved certain amendments to the Company's articles of association and the election of four new members to the Company's board of directors effective upon consummation of the business combination with Wowjoint -- Mr. Yabin Liu, Mr. Fude Zhang, Mr. Jibing Li and Mr. Chun Liu.
About Wowjoint
Wowjoint is a leading provider of customized duty heavy lifting and carrying machinery used in such large scale infrastructure projects as railway, highway and bridge constructions. Wowjoint's main products lines include launching gantries, tyre trolleys, special carriers and marine hoists. The company's innovative design capabilities have resulted in patent grants and proprietary products. Wowjoint is well positioned to benefit directly from China's rapid infrastructure development by leveraging its extensive operational experience and long-term relationships with established blue chip customers.
Registration statement for the warrants declared active today:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/100211/cnth032.html?.v=55
I have too many warrants to exercise them hehe.
AXG - I don't see it as bullish, but the only truly bad result of tomorrow's vote would be if they threw in the towel, somehow recognizing that there's no hope in getting the requisite votes even with a delay.
Any other result that I can think of retains the value of the warrants.
AXG-WT : uh oh, tankage of the warrants at the end of trading. I added a bunch more in the .20's with speculative funds...going to be a restless night!
CFQCF/CFQWF - More dissenter shares bought.
2/11 6K filing
Other Events
China Fundamental entered into an agreement (the “Genesis Agreement”), dated February 10, 2010, with Genesis Capital Advisors, LLC (“Genesis”) and Wowjoint, pursuant to which Genesis has purchased approximately 349,830 ordinary shares of China Fundamental from third parties in privately negotiated transactions prior to China Fundamental’s special meeting of shareholders, scheduled for February 12, 2010. Genesis is not an affiliate of China Fundamental, its officers and directors and/or their respective affiliates, or of Wowjoint or its officers and directors and/or their respective affiliates. Genesis effected these purchases of China Fundamental ordinary shares with institutions that have voted against or indicated an intention to vote against the business combination with Wowjoint Genesis has agreed to sell such shares to China Fundamental for $2.81 million.
In addition, China Fundamental has entered into additional Stock Purchase Agreements with several its shareholders to purchase an aggregate of 197,881 ordinary shares of China Fundamental for an aggregate purchase price of $1.58 million. Including the agreements that were previously reported, China Fundamental has now entered into agreements to purchase an aggregate of approximately 1,326,428 ordinary shares (not including the shares to be purchased pursuant to the Genesis Agreement noted above). Pursuant to the purchase agreements, such shareholders have agreed not to exercise their redemption rights or, if they have already exercised their redemption rights, to withdraw and revoke such exercise.
The purchase of shares of China Fundamental ordinary shares pursuant to these agreements will reduce the number of shares available to seek redemption of their ordinary shares for cash. The purchase of ordinary shares pursuant to these agreements will take place concurrently with or following the closing of the acquisition of Wowjoint and will be paid for with funds that will be released from China Fundamental’s trust account upon consummation of the acquisition.
Just filed: Another 6K detailing additional purchases of dissenter shares.
Other Events
China Fundamental entered into an agreement (the “Genesis Agreement”), dated February 10, 2010, with Genesis Capital Advisors, LLC (“Genesis”) and Wowjoint, pursuant to which Genesis has purchased approximately 349,830 ordinary shares of China Fundamental from third parties in privately negotiated transactions prior to China Fundamental’s special meeting of shareholders, scheduled for February 12, 2010. Genesis is not an affiliate of China Fundamental, its officers and directors and/or their respective affiliates, or of Wowjoint or its officers and directors and/or their respective affiliates. Genesis effected these purchases of China Fundamental ordinary shares with institutions that have voted against or indicated an intention to vote against the business combination with Wowjoint Genesis has agreed to sell such shares to China Fundamental for $2.81 million.
In addition, China Fundamental has entered into additional Stock Purchase Agreements with several its shareholders to purchase an aggregate of 197,881 ordinary shares of China Fundamental for an aggregate purchase price of $1.58 million. Including the agreements that were previously reported, China Fundamental has now entered into agreements to purchase an aggregate of approximately 1,326,428 ordinary shares (not including the shares to be purchased pursuant to the Genesis Agreement noted above). Pursuant to the purchase agreements, such shareholders have agreed not to exercise their redemption rights or, if they have already exercised their redemption rights, to withdraw and revoke such exercise.
The purchase of shares of China Fundamental ordinary shares pursuant to these agreements will reduce the number of shares available to seek redemption of their ordinary shares for cash. The purchase of ordinary shares pursuant to these agreements will take place concurrently with or following the closing of the acquisition of Wowjoint and will be paid for with funds that will be released from China Fundamental’s trust account upon consummation of the acquisition.
AXG - every little bit helps!
One unfortunate scenario that now appears to be non-trivial, would be another delay vote tomorrow. The language in the PRs sets the stage, but hopefully it doesn't get delayed. That would tank the warrants, although then I could buy some more! So I guess it wouldn't be so unfortunate after all.
Q3 earnings PR from IGC:
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/100210/0586087.html?.v=1
AXG+ -- I added 5k more at .261
I now believe that it's either going to get approved Friday, or they're going to motion to delay the vote again, and again, until they get enough votes through private transactions.
The reason I think that they are determined to get this deal done:
The special meetings of Atlas’ stockholders and warrantholders scheduled to be held on February 12, 2010 could be adjourned to provide time to seek out and negotiate additional arrangements if, at the time of the meeting, it appears that the requisite vote will not be obtained or that the conversion threshold will be exceeded, assuming that an adjournment proposal is presented and approved. Also, under Delaware law, Atlas’ board of directors may postpone the meeting at any time prior to it being called to order to provide time to seek out and negotiate such arrangements.
AXG/AXG+ PR'd an effort to shore up enough votes. Who in their right mind would vote against this deal? sheesh
Atlas Acquisition announces actions relating to securing stockholder approval of business combination with select staffing (AXG) 9.55 : The co announces it had been advised that its founding stockholders (including James Hauslein and Gaurav Burman) and the Sorensen Family Trust (the "Sorensen Trust"), the principal beneficial owner of Koosharem, a California limited liability company that does business as "Select Staffing," are negotiating arrangements with holders of shares of Atlas common stock and warrants as part of their efforts to secure stockholder approval of Atlas' proposed business combination with Select Staffing. In addition, Atlas announced that it has been advised that its founders and the Sorensen Trust are negotiating with potential buyers of shares of common stock of Atlas who will agree to vote in favor of the proposed business combination. The purpose of such arrangements would be to increase the likelihood that holders of a majority of the shares of Atlas common stock issued in its initial public offering (the "public shares") vote in favor of the Select Staffing business combination and that holders of less than 30% of the public shares demand conversion of their public shares into cash.
i don't know about TD waterhouse, but TD ameritrade is AXG+ when you put in the order. It'll show up differently on their software depending on where you look, but AXG+ is how you enter the order.
i have no clue how to estimate that, especailly considering that they're having to use some trust $ to buy dissenter shares.
systrader, I like the way you think. But I'm going to have to stick with "deal completion risk" until friday afternoon ;^)
tiger, use only your speculative dollars; nothing is for-sure
malc/tiger, I sense quite a bit of concern over these kinds of plays. Folks are very hesitant to dip their toes into "all or nothing" plays, and to some degree I can't blame them. Is this any different than buying call or put options? A little, but not much. Is it different than buying a normal stock? YES in terms of the cataclysmic event timing, but NO in terms of a 100% loss being a distinct possibility for either. I mean, how many times have we seen single-drug biotechs just get creamed when the FDA nixes them. SPAC votes aren't much different in terms of their downside risk. In both the biotech's case and the SPAC's case, we can gather bits of information through filings and by empirically watching the stock & warrants trade. The 6K filing today was a big deal to me, but I'd love to hear a side of the argument where the 6K maybe isn't that big a deal (e.g. there was a SPAC a week or two ago who PR'd that there was going to be a last-minute buy of shares in order to get the vote passed; well, the vote still didn't pass).
So to me it comes down to risk vs. reward. My avg is about 1.07/warrant, so risk = 1.07. The Reward calculation is less clear, but the scenario that I consider most likely is simply a reversal of the risk discount, which right now is about $2. Intrinsic value is about $3, so I'm thinking that I'll make $2 profit per 1.07 invested. But that doesn't even consider the possibility of a push over the trust's value of ~$8, nor the push that the stock would get from uplisting. If CFQCF were to go up to $10, then the warrants would react by going up near $5.
Bottom line is that the reward scenario is very enticing. Let's hope that we get to see it unfold with front-row seats.
More interesting stuff:
1) Buried in one of the 13G/A filings that I mentioned yesterday is this guy Samuels who reported owning 6.6%...of the WARRANTS (almost 500K of them). That's no chump change.
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1313610/000114420410004645/v172462_sc13ga.htm
That 495k is down 40k from a filing 1 year ago. http://msnmoney.brand.edgar-online.com/EFX_dll/EDGARpro.dll?FetchFilingHTML1?ID=6398730&SessionID=VS9eWEAOgVIBMD9
2) The 6K filed today covers about 20% of the total outstanding shares. If that doesn't eliminate most all of the dissenting shares, then this deal was doomed from the beginning. The way I read it, this 6K greatly increases the chance for a successful vote.
AXG/AXG-WT
With the vote just a couple days away, the volume in the warrants had a major spike today. A nice price move accompanied the volume. Conversely, the common traded down on light volume.
However this vote turns out, the merger partner (Select Staffing) sure is a good company. And in a time where many companies are opting for cheaper labor, it sure seems like AXG mgmt would do what it takes to get this deal through. I'm biased, so by definition I like its chances for approval, but we shall see.
AXG is kind of a strange one in that they're giving common shares in exchange for all the warrants. It complicates the exit strategy a bit, but I am fine with ending up with Select Staffing stock, if necessary. But there is potential for the warrants to triple+ from the low .20's, and if they were to do this prior to the share exchange, then that sounds good to me (less waiting is good!)
That 6K tells me that mgmt is on top of things; to what extent we'll see. But I took it as a sign to add more warrants @ 1.12
CFQCF/CFQWF: 6K detailing share purchase agreement filed today. Kind of bummed that they had dissenters, but at least the mgmt is being proactive.
Other Events
China Fundamental has entered into Stock Purchase Agreements or arrangements with several of its shareholders to purchase an aggregate of approximately 1.13 million shares of China Fundamental ordinary shares for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $9.03 million. Pursuant to the purchase agreements, such shareholders have agreed not to exercise their redemption rights or, if they have already exercised their redemption rights, to withdraw and revoke such exercise.
The purchase of shares of China Fundamental ordinary shares pursuant to these agreements will reduce the number of shares available to seek redemption of their ordinary shares for cash. The purchase of ordinary shares pursuant to these agreements will take place concurrently with or following the closing of the acquisition of Wowjoint and will be paid for with funds that will be released from China Fundamental’s trust account upon consummation of the acquisition.
6K filed today, detailing some share purchase agreements. Looks like they're shoring up dissenter votes; hopefully they've done a good job in determining who the dissenters are!
Other Events
China Fundamental has entered into Stock Purchase Agreements or arrangements with several of its shareholders to purchase an aggregate of approximately 1.13 million shares of China Fundamental ordinary shares for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $9.03 million. Pursuant to the purchase agreements, such shareholders have agreed not to exercise their redemption rights or, if they have already exercised their redemption rights, to withdraw and revoke such exercise.
The purchase of shares of China Fundamental ordinary shares pursuant to these agreements will reduce the number of shares available to seek redemption of their ordinary shares for cash. The purchase of ordinary shares pursuant to these agreements will take place concurrently with or following the closing of the acquisition of Wowjoint and will be paid for with funds that will be released from China Fundamental’s trust account upon consummation of the acquisition.
OT: Drex, I heard that Greece is going to try and pull out of their tailspin by spinning some new Greek Wedding movies, but this time with blue people.
Justin, your arguments are good. But keep in mind that growth was strong in China in '08 and early '09 when our beloved microcaps were one-third of where they are now, yet their invividual stories were the same. So the lesson that I learned is that even when value has strong growth, overall market sentiment can and does rule to some degree.
Heavy buy volume today on the common (475k); not sure it's meaningful considering the record-date for voting shares is long past.
Slew of 13G/A's filed today by HBK; near as I can tell they're an arbitrageur and might just be playing CFQCF for the risk-free rate of return. Unfortunately, if that's the reason for their investment, they'd usually be on the "NO" side of the fence when it comes vote time.
CFQWF - if I thought the deal were 50/50, I very well might not be in it. But that said, I only have observational evidence to think that it's higher than 50/50. I put it at 80/20, but if that 20 hits, it will be painful.
I'm not in agreement with your scenarios, but instead of burning up the keyboard, let's just agree to disagree, and find out what the market thinks on Friday.
Ryan, re: CFQWF - I understand where you are with your reasoning, but I don't agree with it.
When (if) the deal goes thru, the warrants will spike to somewhere close to intrinsic because the risk is gone. I can't pull up a chart for the old TMI-warrants any more (nor the CCME-warrants), but I recall them spiking on the vote approval or very shortly thereafter, from something like .50 to $3+. Those #'s are a bit off i'm sure, but the magnitude is approximately right (multi-baggers).
With TMI post-vote, there was indeed more $ to be made on the warrants, but that was primarily because the common was climbing and pulling the warrants with it.
Now, I'm not expecting the Wowjoint common to spike up to $15 or anything like that, mostly due to the valuations you pointed out.
But I get somewhat disappointed when I see traders/investors thinking that the possibility of a 100% loss should trigger an immediate red-flag to not invest. I mean, anybody that buys calls or puts has to deal with that very real possibility.
Best of luck though, and perhaps you'll be proven right.
CFQWF - Other than maybe one other SPACer i have my eye on, i see nothing out there that offers the draw of a triple in less than a week, so if you see other stocks like that, let me know.
The calculation that one needs to keep in mind for any trade is EXPECTED return. In CFQWF's case, there's a non-trivial chance for a 0% return, but that's overwhelmed by the part of the successful part of the equation.
I have a large chunk of CFQWF will be quite unhappy if it does not turn out well. Even at a 50/50 probability, this one is totally worth the speculative dollar from my point of view.
malc, re: CFQCF - hard to get a read on it for sure! This deal seems like a slam-dunk, but the warrants are clearly trading as if there's perceived risk. I'm concerned, but no so much so that it prevented me from bidding much of the day yesterday (and not getting a fill).
Steven, I don't have the mailer in front of me, but that's how I recall it too: "$29M per year". Wonder what the margins are on that.