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There is no bubble in 90% of the US
There are bubbles in some areas, but in most of the USA there is not. Where there is no bubble, there is none that can pop.
Seems to me that it is an error of attribution. People who live in bubble areas think that their experience is the same as everyone's. It is not.
Read the FDIC reports to view which markets are in bubble area and to see historic busts. Those reports are instructive, but of course this time "It is different", right?
FWIW, Portland is not in bubble area, but could move there as Oregon is the 10th fastest growing state (in % terms) according to the latest Census Bureau population update. OTOH, folks are leaving CA, MA, and NY for less expensive environs where they can afford housing and achieve a higher quality of life.
Ron
OT: Elephant at a zoo going to give birth live on webcam
http://www.wdr.de/themen/freizeit/freizeitgestaltung/zoo_koeln/livevideo.html
There is no national housing bubble
Real estate is local. There are markets that are overpriced, which is why lots of young people from those markets are moving to places like Kansas City, Dallas and other places.
The Bubble is a Myth. Over-priced, unsupportable real estate prices in some local/regional markets is not.
My selfish dream is that this exposure and inflow of cash will propel my favorite platform into greater user adoption
To quote our Zanny who art in cyberspace (and he reads this, I think)
It is Happening.
I hope there aren't any significant stumbles in the transition to Intel CPUs.
I am having real difficulties with the mighty mouse when using it with web browsers. It is not at all difficult for it to take me to a previous page when scrolling with it.
I think I will go out and buy a real two button mouse with a scroll wheel. Anyone else have this problem?
Ron
iPod success duration
I don't doubt you dilleet. I don't think they are milking the success of the Pods, I think they are building upon it. They have already established it as a platform and a whole lot of companies have created an iPod ecosystem. The products at the core of the ecosystem have been expanded and extended - downward in price point and upward in features.
Those analysts could be correct, I suppose, but my bet is on the other side of their predictions for now.
Ron
"I think they are truly starting to believe that the iPod fever has not run its course"
Does anyone believe that it has run its course? If so, on what basis do they think so? When we look back at FY2005 iPod sales from several years down the road, they will seem like small numbers, in my estimation.
Ron
mp3 and fm
I think they could still get differentiation by adding either Sirius or XM rather than FM - and maybe get a cut of the satellite radio subscription dollars.
Creating a x86 system significantly better than commodity PC
That is simple. Its the OS. Add to OS X the ability to boot into a Windows PC for those who want or need to and you've got a significantly better system by a pretty large factor.
I think it is good that iPods dominated Amazon.com's electronic sales, but the information would be more meaningful if they would give us units sold :).
FWIW, I think iPod sales wil, at a minimum double over the next year - and have a shot at doing considerably better than that.
I also thing there a pretty fair chance of the next three weeks being serious ka-ching time for those holding AAPL. That being said, none of us who post here are AAPL virgins, so I also think we need
1) a really good MW keynote by Steve - really good means product introductions that extend the move into home media - hopefully on the hardware side - a strong update on the Intel transition and the release of the first Mactel computers.
2) good revenue numbers for the quarter
3) good iPod sales numbers that are not too far off the mid-high range of expectations, and
4) good guidance.
If we don't get all four - well, what do you guys think? Is the bar to high?
On the move into home media. I know Apple's current home media offerings can be considered weak. However, last night we had friends over for a Boxing Day dinner. I cranked up slides of our Christmas trip to the coast using the remote on the iMac, turned on music and selected a playlist with it, and fooled around with it some.
Two of the guests are current Mac owners. I beleive their upgrade plans were accelerated. One fellow was particularly enthusiastic.
Ron
The beginning of the article
Even after a three-year run that has sent Apple shares heavenward, some bulls believe the company -- and its stock -- can only climb higher in 2006.
and the end of it
But others, like Jim Grossman, a portfolio manager at Thrivent who is long Apple, feel that with this company -- and stock -- you've just got to believe. "At times, you've got to abandon traditional financial metrics and, for lack of better terms, drink the Kool-Aid," he says.
With stuff on Pods, retail, quotes from fund managers etc.. in between
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/tech/gamesandgadgets/10258765_4.html
This quarter ramblings
We received a iTunes gift card from a nephew. Told Kathy it was hers to spend. Now the only thing I have to do is to make sure she spends it this week.
I wonder how many people are busily downloading gift card songs this week. Heard a snippet this morning that said average online song purchases this year were down to 15 from 25 - and leapt from that to the assertation that it mean there was an increase in illegally downloaded music.
Sense of humor??
I have a fine sense of humor.
When was the photo taken?
OT: I think it is a bunch of crap
When you choose to inflict upon all of us this shit of sparring over the topic of overpaid, pampered pro athletes and the concurrent regional chauvinism that seems to infect otherwise relatively healthy adults around teams of those athletes. In the greater scheme of things, they are less significant then the feces that you insist on rolling into little balls.
Take this shit private, please. It is more annoying than some other crap that you complain about incessantly on this board.
thanks in advance and Happy Holidays :)
Ron
I was by the Apple store at Bridgeport Village in Portland about 11 this morning
Not crowded, but there were two lines about 3-4 people deep at the two register stations.
Don't know about a blow-out quarter, seems expectations are pretty high
Hopefully Apple is busily cranking out those 100k a day Nanos we've read about and will ship another 1/2 million or so before the end of the day on Dec. 31.
Wonder how many it will take to refill the channel?
Amazon.com Customers Order over 108 Million Items Worldwide During 11th Holiday Season; More Than 99 Percent of Orders Shipped in Time to Meet Holiday Deadlines Worldwide
SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 26, 2005--Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) today announced that the 2005 holiday season finished as its best ever, with the company's Holiday Delight-O-Meter surpassing 108 million items ordered for the first time. The 2005 holiday season also brought another single-day record with the Delight-O-Meter tracking more than 3.6 million items ordered, or 41 items per second, on Dec. 12th.
Amazon.com's hot holiday sellers (Nov. 25 through Dec. 22 based on units ordered)
-- iPods ruled the holiday season in Electronics, owning the top three slots- the Apple 3 GB [sic] iPod Nano (Black), the Apple 30 GB iPod with Video Playback (Black), and the Apple 512 MB iPod Shuffle were the top sellers.
http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20051226005...
Direct. In fact, I bought some AAPL Jan 72.50's a while back in IRA.
Thanks Ms. Fibait.
Very much. I'm hypothesizing that your area is representative of sales in many other areas.
Just a hypothesis, of course :)
No options in IRAs
I do options with Fidelity traditional IRA.
Blind optimism
Not here. Just returned from a couple of days on the Oregon coast. No net access, just bald eagles within viewing distance during breakfast and some binocs with which to view them.
I have some shares I picked dup in the 71-72 range for a trade. Those will likely be gone by the time Steve finished his keynote, but you never know, you know :).
Other shares, picked up in the 51-52 range, after selling some gold shares for a good profit are going to be sticking to the IRA like glue on something or another.
I think we'll have a good year with Apple, viewed from December 2005 to December 2006.
Merry Christmas
Ron
Happy Holidays!!
We're heading out in a few hours for a couple of days at the coast. You guys all have a wonderful holiday, and I'll see you in a few days.
Ron
you can get an ed discount on hardware
I'm suggesting that
It was a dumb and very egocentric thing to say - so I reckon you'r right - prolonged adolescence. Hope you got some Ice-o-Derm for the zits :)
iTms is fine if you're in junior high school
That is the type of statement often heard by students in junior high schools.
Jan 10 - Ron taking day off to enjoy the Apple Frenzy
Jan 18 - Ron taking the afternoon off to view the Apple Frenzy
Happy Applemas.
Revenue prediction
6 billion 500 thousand dollars (American money)
Ron
Google has published its 2005 Year-End Google Zeitgeist.
The iPod was the most-searched-for product on Froogle this year.
Froogle is Google's product search engine and shopping directory. It assists consumers with locating products for sale online by presenting photos of relevant products.
Not only did the iPod figure at number one in the list, the iPod mini was at number four, the iPod shuffle at number eight, and the iPod nano at number ten, despite it being launched in September. The term MP3 player figured at number three.
http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/index.cfm?RSS&NewsID=13424
79.50 would also be good.
I'm figuring about half our shares are trading ones - to be gone by earnings unless I spaz out and think things are going to run post earnings. It is not an easy call - MacWorld could be awesome and provide some running energy if revs are good.
At 79.50, they'd be up pretty good and I would be inclined to take the profits - however......you know how that dance goes. If Apple does 11-12 million iPods - holy cow of calcutta.
Will see and play it by ear. I am inclined to take profits. Portfolios are at all time highs and I would not be thrilled with giving it a chance to go much below that.
re: put me down for $85
I'd like that.
Holiday channel check
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21993290
I nibbled back in a bit when gold hit $490 today. Not much, but a little bit. Still lots of cash waiting to see what happens over the next month or two.
Picked up some NG a buck off its high.
Interesting, that is the same link
As in the post you were responding to. I guess in that kind of thing, more is better :).
More on pocketporn
The flood of tiny explicit images might well have a transformative effect on public conduct. Steve Coulson, who runs PodGuide.tv and YesButNoButYes.com, a pair of blogs dedicated to video content for iPods and popular culture, respectively, says he's seen about 15 dedicated adult sites crop up since the video iPod was released.
A friend of his recently sat next to an iPod owner enlivening the train ride with a little on-screen skin. "If it had been me on that train, I'd have gotten up and walked across the aisle," says Coulson.
http://yahoo.smartmoney.com/stockwatch/index.cfm?story=20051221&afl=yahoo&pgnum=2
So far, so good.
Anyone care to make any predictions about the quarter and/or share price before the earnings report?
I'll go out on a limb on the latter. I'm guessing AAPL hits $80 between now and the day of the earnings report. Remember boys and girls, this is a guess :).
How hot do you think vPods will be in 2006? Will the combination of vPods and Nanos make 2005 iPod sales look anemic?
Intel-ization of the Mac: Will Mac owners be able to easily boot up Windows XP? Vista? Will these machines fulfill the CHRP promise? If so, will that bring new customers into the fold?
The growth in consumer spending is predicted to slow down - business spending is predicted to increase. Will Apple sell more computers to business than it has in the past?
Software and services - anyone have any comments on that, either for the past year or going forward.
And, the ongoing question: Is it happening? :)
Let us chat about something other than............hard drives :)
Roni are you and Bootz the new AAPL Bulls ?
Could be Altaire,
Gotta do something with all that cash while gold corrects :).
Wonder, if the news is good, how much of it is already baked in? Wonder if it will be like October of 2004, when AAPL ran like the devil was after it post-earnings (I think that was the year - I was in Kelowna, BC then at a conference, watched it once or twice a day from net access at a public library).
Vamos ver, as they say in much of the world
The sell though in iPods is amazing.
At this point, the sell-through in iPods is unreported :), but the signs do look positive. There is that failing to meet unrealistic expectations thing, though. Your memory is plenty good to remember those times, isn't it?
I have stop-losses out there, and do not feel greed-blinded most of the time; having been bindsided by my own greed before :).
January earnings / MacWorld and AAPL
Is anyone playing this like an aggressive, greed-blinded bull?
From a college email list this morning:
Dare to ask the question...
Is there an iPod in your future?
Your PCC [Portland Community College] Bookstore's have them in stock.
Apple's first $1.5 billion iPod Christmas?
From the friar's keyboard to the market's ears :).
Would be fun. I'm not too excited by some of the higher estimates of Pod shipments - I just hope AAPL does not get dragged into the "didn't meet unrealistic expectations" downdraft game.
If MW announcements pull enough folks into the RDF, hopefully that will not be a problem.