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Dew, what do you make of Merck's tortoise-like development program with Ridaforolimus?
Have they just 'given in' to Afinitor, or are they just a bunch of bumbling fools wondering which direction to take the drug?
So much for "best in class" for Ridaforolimus. Don't hear that from Berger anymore, huh?
Nothing updated.
I haven't seen a formal presentation on the data. All I know if Merck/Ariad are NOT going forward with it - and - instead - are using MK-646 and Rida combo (which is showing good results, I believe). Would like to have seen the poster presentation for the data at ASCO except it was never publicly released.
Merck is the worst partner right now.
Clueless buffoons. Clueless because they are still clueless as to the direction they want to go with Ridaforolimus.
Afinitor hits ANOTHER endpoint.
http://www.novartis.com/newsroom/media-releases/en/2011/1528340.shtml
Meanwhile, Merck just twiddles their thumbs with Ridaforolimus.
I can't see why it wouldn't.
It clearly works.
I dont think Merck will buy Ariad until Ariad has Ponatinib approved and 113 likely near approval. At that point, instead of Merck paying a couple billion for Ariad, like they could attempt to do now, they will have to pay about four times that....because thats the way large pharma works. Half-ass backwards and buffoonery.....and Merck is, by far, the biggest of the large pharma buffoons.
Oh, and thanks re: your comment. I agree
that will be a very good thing...
....just in time for the monkeys in D.C. to grandstand all the way to August 2.
they wont have dosed anyone in the 113 trial next week, other than a mouse.
sounds reasonable.
I am curious, but did the Baker Brothers buy YMI in the open market or did they buy them in some sort of private placement or financing YMI had in the low single digits? I vaguely remember the Baker Brothers as being large holders of ARIA after Berger over at Ariad did many famous PIPES in the low single digits, only to see their holdings go to zero in short order...as if they were just in there to flip the stock.
Maybe I should follow YMI more. I just was never highly impressed with Nimo and what always seemed to be a kind of "pump" ala 'super avatin' or 'super erbitux', whatever they like to call it.
LOL . I am sure he said something similar in 2000.
My money is watching his money.
Sorry. My business partner's 10 year old son was on my computer this a.m. and posted this.
I continue to be both amused and encouraged by how so many of these general media biopharma reporters don't even mention 113 as part of Ariad's portfolio-
Whaddaya know. CYCC just did a pisspoor offering.
You know you're involved with a real POS company when they PR that they had "pre-IND meetings with the FDA".
I don't own it, but saw it come across the tape yesterday.
What's causing the freefall??
ANSWER: all the high-5'ing and back-slapping that was happening here, like we all won the Superbowl, when ARIA got close to $12.00.
didn't take long for this to turn around and start acting like a POS again.
Several errors in a Seeking Alpha article?? Damn, you don't say.
Thats what happens when a once legitimate source of information now allows people sitting at home in their underwear, typing garbage, to submit articles that are captured by newsfeed services.
Before you type, you should probably verify your facts...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43599659
It probably dumps.
Counterfeit Ponatinib....LMFAO.
What are they going to use it recreationally?
I can't imagine we would get less than 100mil, which should take care of all immediate needs.
If they don't dilute soon, IMO, after all these presentations, etc., one could make a fair assumption that they have something big going on with partnering Ponatinib.
Don't know where else they would get money from.
Wish they'd just get it over with.
Raise $100 million...BOOM. They have enough money for all Ponatinib trials going forward, 113, and anything else they need for a long time.
stock goes to $15-20 in short time after the offering IMHO.
Because all of those "education" stocks have gotten the crap kicked out of them because of bad student loans.
You're already about one year late to that trade.
So when's the secondary? After the close?
You would need at least 10 million shares traded to have a blowoff.
I just don't like scumbag CEOs who fleece their investors (retail idiots are the ones who are getting fleeced...to their own fault) while they collect a $600,000 salary on a fledgling zero of a company. And, in the meantime, bungle everything they touch including clinical trials.
I don't think filing an IND is really a PR'able event. They very well could have already done it and we'll hear about it at the World Conference on Lung Cancer.
You know? Big deal...they filed an IND, ie., paperwork. They get no money for it, it's not like filing the NDA for Rida.
The bigger event is announcing trial design for 113 and initiation of the trial..
I'm sure that scumbag will reverse-split his shares back to nothing, and then keep diluting and diluting and diluting.
I've never owned that CTIC scam, but their CEO collecting the salary that he does should be a criminal offense.
Of course.....Rodman did the deal. LOL. Scumbags doing business with Scumbags.
Not ARIA specific, but worth a read.
There is nothing to stop another large company with BILLIONS in cash to make an offer for ARIAD. Anyone can make an offer...
Why wouldn't a large pharma want a company with Ariad's clinical pipeline?
More Buyout and M&A Candidates in BioHealth (INCY, LLY, NVS, CELG, CADX, HSP, SLXP)
June 27, 2011 · Filed Under Acquisitions, analyst calls, M&A
It seems that if there is one segment that everyone agrees will continue to see consolidation, it is the biotech, drug, and specialty pharmaceutical sector. A report this week from UBS has highlighted several possible deals that it could imagine from its universe of analysts and there were four possible deals in biotech and pharma that were touted and which we think were worth mentioning.
The companies covered as possible targets were Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ: INCY), Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG), Cadence Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: CADX), and Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (NASDAQ: SLXP). We have sort of handicapped each scenario with our own outlook and shown how these compare to an overall analyst consensus.
Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ: INCY) is called a biotech takeover target as it is partnered with Eli Lilly Co. (NYSE: LLY), a larger company which has shown a past appetite for making deals with partners. On LLY-104, Lilly owes Incyte $616 million in remaining milestones and which it splits operating profits equally. The firm believes that Lilly could acquire Incyte in order to consolidate economics on a key product in the pipeline. With a typical premium of about 50%, that would imply a price of at least $30.00 per share based upon a $20 price target. If you include the current pipeline and technology platform, the belief is that $30.00 would be a floor. Another Incyte partnership is with Novartis (NYSE: NVS) on ruxolitinib, but the outlook is less dependent on that product and partnership. At $18.58, the Thomson Reuters consensus price target is $22.57 and the 52-week range is $10.21 to $21.15.
Both Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ: INCY) and Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) are rated Buy at UBS.
Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) is one biotech we do not really agree with UBS on, but only because we imagine it being an acquirer to grow its enterprise. After all, its market cap is almost $27.5 billion. Still, UBS noted that Celgene is trading below an estimated intrinsic value if the company achieves success on its pipeline and receives its milestones. The idea here is a Big Pharma buyer somewhere under $80.00 per share with a value of $40 billion or so. UBS did at least note that the absolute likelihood of a deal happening here is not very high but it is more attractive compared to other large biotechs when considering patent terms, growth, and its strategic positioning. At $59.39, Thomson Reuters has a consensus price target of $66.91 and the 52-week trading range is $48.02 to $63.46.
Cadence Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: CADX) was given a very short write-up in the specialty pharmaceutical sector. It was noted as being that Hospira Inc. (NYSE: HSP) could drive significant SG&A synergies by leveraging its own sales force. UBS also only has a neutral rating, but this is in that sweet spot with a market cap of $585 million. We would note that the consensus Thomson Reuters data shows revenues growing from about $21.5 million in 2011 to just over $110 million in 2012. With shares around $9.22 today, the 52-week range is $6.41 to $10.00 and Thomson Reuters has a price target of $10.14 from its analyst pool.
Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (NASDAQ: SLXP) is also only given a Neutral rating at UBS, but its $2.24 billion market cap is one that UBS could be driven higher on synergies by leveraging its sales force to juice sales in Xifaxan. It is hard to get excited about the deal size projected too with a likely value of $2.5 to $3.0 billion.
As a reminder, just because M&A deals are dreamed about does not mean that a deal is imminent or even in the works. It is our take that some of the broad list of over 40 companies throughout many sectors not tied to healthcare or biohealth may have more attractive candidates for M&A. That is what makes a market.
JON C. OGG
Tags: CADX, CELG, HSP, INCY, LLY, NVS, SLXP
You're probably right. I've just seen way too many ups and downs I feel like dealing with over the past decade. Makes me not very optimistic....
I think Ariad has "graduated" from giving warrants to vultures like BVF or Orbimed or Deerfield. I don't think there is any way Ariad (barring mega-implosion) does another PIPE-type of financing.
If they do another financing/secondary I would hope they do it with someone they already do not have a banking relationship with, eg., Goldman Sachs. I'd like it if they had another bank pitching the deal and selling the idea to a whole new slew of clientele (not that there already isn't tons of overlap between the firms). I just think a Goldman research pump, after the deal, would goose the stock.
Personally, I wish I would wake up and see Lilly or someone trying to bid $25 for the whole company. That would make me happier that a pig in, you know what.
yeah someone keeps trying me to get AMRN but i keep declining bc its non-oncology. i know very little about AMRNs business and every time i do biotech outside of oncology i end up getting bent over...basically bc i dont understand the science at all.
btw...as i have always said, my biggest concern about owning ariad is this.............can u believe the imbeciles in DC are actually posturing over the debt ceiling??? both sides are playing chicken with a massive implosion in the global markets and huge downgrade to the US debt markets, all of which would make Lehmans crisis look like a hopscotch match.
yeah, i think the more you and i or anyone think about all this, the worse the decision.
day by day. its not like i hold 2 million shares that i would have to work out of...lol, unfortunately.
im really conflicted because i do think forteen to fifteen area is major resistance...along with overall market concerns, i might sell it all. the conflict is in the longterm which is that i think it could go meaningfully higher, i just dont believe in this market or economy.
i am up nearly one thousand percent in some of my stock. thats crazy.
i really want there to be a blowoff type of rally which will be evident of a medium term top, and enough for me to say i made a good decision. the grind upwards followed by pullbacks is a lot more of a tougher trade to exit imo.
btw, assuming i do sell stock in aria, i plan of putting it into CRIS where i just do not believe the Street has noticed yet. theres no momentum, no trading nothing. but technically, the thing looks like its forming a big base.
how did i manage to ride it to forty plus? because it went up twenty points at a time....not pennies or dimes.
those were good times...the best.
I actually thinnk if they did a financing it might make the stock go up...
I bought sub-2, and 3, and 4 and sold literally a few weeks later at around 43.00.
best trade of my life....will never forget it.
of course, ARIA at 43.00 then had a marketcap of well less than $1 billion.