Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
GFP,
If you got out of COR in the $5s, and can buy back in in the $2s, you've done very well.
I often thought when the price languished in the low $1s that someone could accumulate millions of shares and make the supply scarce when good news comes out. Perhaps someone was doing just that?
Just as last year, COR could do no right, things may be setting up for a "perfect storm" of positive news this year. I think the FDA will be swifter in their response than the end of June, as you suggest. They have derailed CX-717 long enough. I will be on vacation in Mexico the week of March 18th, so that might be a big news/activity week?
Also, as soon as the limitation is lifted, I would expect some deals to be inked. A good one for both sides. Unplanned positive news from Organon also. Scarcity of shares. This could hit double digits concievably in 2007. Now, I'm not calling it a slam dunk, but some positive surprises might very well surface.
I really hope you can liquidate some funds and participate in the long overdue price appreciation that is due Cortex shareholders.
Also, notice that all of the insider activity has been purchases by option exercise and/or open market buys. This has to be another positive.
MF4
Here's a way to safely play the FDA binary event:
Chances of picking up the shares below $2 will probably disappear by Friday. Here's an idea: Buy your position Friday. Also buy the May $2.50 calls in an equal number as your position (one call option controls one-hundred shares).
Once the stock hits $2.50 (or anything over that), sell the shares. You will be able to buy the shares back anytime before the middle of May for $2.50 because of the options you hold. But, you've locked in a profit, and if the stock plummets again, you're only out the cost of the options.
Two concerns: The cost of the options will rise (currently .25/share) the closer COR gets to the price of $2.50, and if the FDA binary event occurs after the expiration in mid-May, you can't buy back in for $2.50 It would be nice if the option MM would offer August strike options.
MF4
COR is top AMEX gainer. Up 42% on big volume. Momo players sure to pop this tommorrow.
Jerry, I told myself that I should double my position at the open. Unfortunately, I was asleep for the first 15 minutes. And the price was higher at $1.3 I bought 10% of what I wanted and waited for a pullback. Well, I just woke up and see that the volume is huge and stock is above $1.60 I wish I would have bought more, but I've gotten burned alot lately by COR.
However, Stoll couldn't have been more definitive in his statement, and at $1.60 it's still cheap. There's a very good chance it gaps up at the open and has strong follow through, so I bought 20% more. Maybe it settles at $1.50? But, in a month, I see it higher.
A year ago, I wished for the opportunity to double my position at half of $5+ Then it came and I only nibbled. Caution. Be careful what you wish for, right? I've bought quite a few May call options. So, if the stock goes above $2.50 by then, Cummulatively, I will control almost twice as many shares as a year ago.
CD's are fine for the majority of my funds (that's where they are), but you don't get big rewards without risk. And COR has a great risk/reward ratio here. I think $6 is a very reasonable target. So 300-400% return in 3 months would be quite sweet.
MF4
GFP, you are incredibly negative on Cortex. Why don't you just cover your short? You made a killing already.
MF4
GFP, All I can say is that I share your pain. 2005 was the first year that my picks actually made me a profit in 15 years. I have had remarkably bad timing. I guess it may be a bit of a blessing that my losses were less than $5K/year. But, the missed opportunity of timing mistakes were much larger.
I have felt that level of disgust many times over the years and have developed a more diversified approach. I have to gamble a little to keep it interesting though. Hence, the COR.
One of my most nauseated moments happened in Feb or March of 2006, when COR was at $5+ and I was sitting on a buttload of shares, contemplating retirement. I checked the stock price early one morning while at work and saw the price had been halved. I did a double-take, thinking it was a typo. But no, that was the day the FDA hold was announced. I went home sick that day.
COR halved again and then some since that fateful day. Ouch! I'm very comfortable holding at this price and I have been adding to my position too. In my view, it's already got multiple disappointments priced in, but I think the odds of an upside surprise are very favorable. Looking at my record, I might be a good contraindicator?
MF4
Yes, only the legal drugs are allowed in this country. The ones that make you think outside of the box, and question your involvement in the system will always be illegal. They like to control us all with fear and laws so we can do our little part to keep the whole thing propped up like good little slaves.
Mid-February now. Isn't it time for a go/no-go decision on CX-717?
MF4
I knew the flashbacks would eventually surface here.
Jerry, your amazement that Garcia played well on various drugs caught my eye. While some drugs (alchohol, downers) create motor and cognitive slugishness, others (psychedelics, Ampakines) have the potential to enhance one's abilities.
I remember back in the day, I went skiing with a buddy of mine who pulled out a bag of shrooms while we were driving up the hill. He grabbed a handful. I, being a shroom virgin, decided to injest half a cap. An hour later, I stood on a mound afraid to move for a few minutes. After steeling my nerves, I decided to try it. Awkward at first, I made it down the hill still upright. My motor instincts took over, and as I realized that I was still quite capable, I soon discovered that I was much more in tune with my body and the conditions. I skied the rest of the day better than I ever had. I got very aggressive and pulled off everything I attempted. It turned out to be an amazing experience.
Psychedelics reduce or remove the filters that protect the brain from overload of stimulus. If the dose is low enough, it can enhance ones perceptions. It is my belief that what is being percieved is not an hallucination. The feeling that I've heard about at Dead shows that the audience and the band were all in tune with each other is very likely the result of all of those people in attendance, due to the drug-induced hieghtened awareness, tapping into universal consciousness present at the event. Although I didn't care for their music, I regret not going to a Dead show and sharing that experience.
MF4
At this price, I've added to my position some trading shares. I will hold everything and roll the dice, anticipating FDA dose restriction being lifted. I will watch to see what action ensues. I expect a pop above $5, but with this stock, I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't budge. If it gets above $5 and starts looking toppy, I will sell my trading shares and hold my core.
I also anticipate a nice pop from a deal that will probably establish a per share price. What I'd really like to do is see COR become a hot, volotile stock because I will make a fortune writing covered calls, which was my hope before the GD FDA destroyed that scenario a year ago.
MF4
How much longer until the 5.6 million shares are absorbed?
As a backup plan, could the people on this board form a large enough block of buyers that we could buy say 3 million shares around this price, if needed rather than the hedgies? We would get cheap warrants too and if Stoll needs to do another offering and we can present a reasonably easy source, we might get it.
If interested, just add your quantity (assuming $1/share) below:
NAME # shares Cumulative number
---------------------- ------------- -------------------
MarketFest4 10,000 10,000
I've learned not to ever expect good news with COR, but I figure what else can go wrong? There's been nothing but bad news for eleven months now. The company might surprise us with a good PR, or let one of the Garys give a presentation, rather than Stoll.
Maybe, something good and unexpected will happen? At this price, all it needs is anything positive to pop 50 or 100%, then you can kiss $1 goodbye. Back when it was at $5, I berated myself for not having more shares and wished I could double my position at $2. Well, here it is at $1, and I'm only nibbling at it, so I understand how market psychology works on us.
Doesn't it just feel like it's going higher? I think it does.
MF4
Is the risk of missing out on unexpected GOOD news worth saving up to ten cents a share?
At this price, you're trying to "time" the market?
MF4
And Kiera Knightly visits me nightly........Man, that's some good sh*t!
MF4
It appears that Mr.David has inadvertently ingested some brown acid he had misplaced during the 60s. The effect should moderate within 12 hours Al. Try to stay mellow in the meantime,
MF4
GFP,
With your perspective, should I sell all of my shares today and wait until May for the FDA go/no-go? When, if it's a go, the stock will open above $3. Or, do I keep what I have (underwater now) at $1.12?
I could always buy 25 shares of Google while I'm waiting. Put that money to good use, huh?
MF4
Unless Stoll is lying. Seriously, Davidal GFP has "been there/done that" with high risk Bio. He's perpetually waiting for the other shoe to drop and doesn't trust himself to ever truly embrace COR again. As far as his in-depth analysis goes, I think he's "mailing it in" lately. But perhaps he's right? Time will tell.
But, I'm optimistic a bit. And at this price, I don't think MEMY type price action is out of the question.
MF4
GFP,
you really need to study up on options a bit. The stock is at $1.14. The only protective put you could buy would be at a strike of $2.50. That put would cost you $1.50 and would protect you if the stock fell to zero. You would save your $1.14
That's an absurd scenario. COR at $1.14 is a protective put. The common stock is like an option. The only way a put might make sense is if you bought here and if the stock got above $4 when the binary event was approaching, you could buy $2.50 or $5 puts to protect some of your profit without limiting your upside, but at this price? fuggedaboutit.
MF4
GFP,
Thanks for confirming my expectation that you would find the dark cloud in today's conference call. Maybe you should buy a few hundred shares and jump on the bandwagon. What's $200 bucks to you?
C'mon, big fella. Who's your buddy?
MF4
Could be the private placement folks cashing out and keeping their warrants. What a deal. How do I get free warrants?
MF4
Fearfrost,
I think COR has burned so many that there is now excessive pessimism that will keep a lid on it longer than would normally be expected. Therefore, I expect some appreciation, but I think $5 will prove to be a major resistance level that will only be breached for good after a deal is announced. But, you can't beat this price to average down and add to your position with the extremely good, best-case scenario conference call we just got.
I can't wait to hear how GFP spins this all as a negative.
MF4
I'm thinking it will pop in the last half hour and stabilize around $1.30 today. Slowly inching up to the mid $2s in the next month. When the FDA clears it for ADHD at any dose..... a deal will be inked. We will be way above $5 some time in 2007.
MF4
It sounded like he just wanted to secure a compound, for a very low cost today. And hold it until 2008 when they would advance it when they have more money to work with. Implied here is some new source of funding, perhaps a deal expected to be inked in 2007.
Also, it gives them a back-up place to apply their scientists and resources should current drugs be put on hold for some reason. If the new compound has very low aquisition and carrying costs and resources are not significantly diverted to it, all it does is strengthen the pipeline. That's what I got out of it at least.
It doesn't sound like they plan to be too aggressive with it, which is a good thing. Ampakines are still the main focus of COR. And the indication that the histo problem appears related to fixation and not a living side effect is extremely good news!!
MF4
Sounds good to me. Bought more just now. Have more than ever. What a price!!!
MF4
I agree. Only $1.07 to go and we will have found bottom.
MF4
I'm getting deja vu. 701 is to 717 as 717 was to 516. It was 2 or 3 years ago. 516 failed, the stock sunk and we got hyped on 717 and the stock rebounded. Will the promise of an even MORE potent CX-701 give Stoll and company another three years at the options trough and us shareholders with dashed dreams yet again?
This time I'd like to do a few things differently: 1) Have Gary (the enthusiastic one) give all future presentations about Ampakines. And 2)Partner with a rich, motivated BP to have them do all of the testing and FDA back room deals so this stuff can finally get some traction. COR can't handle anything more than discovering and patenting the new variants.
MF4
So COR would go from $1.07 to $1.32 - That would be a good deal? Then, a week later the FDA sneezes and it drops to $.90 and then what?
I'm sorry, but until this thing gets above $5, I could give a crap about a 20% move.
MF4
Nuero. Yes, but when you only have $10M cash, you don't go looking for brand new commitments. You maximize your strengths. Anything else IS stupid!
MF4
I read Stoll's email response to John as positive. I bought back half of what I sold at $1.32 at $1.08 yesterday. I will buy more if the price goes below a buck.
MF4
I agree with Al David, the Greatful Dead hippy himself. COR should be focused on Ampakines, period. The idea that they are considering diversifying away from ampakines is disturbing either because: a) they have no confidence going forward in Ampas, or b) they have a poor grasp on reality. Neither one of these options give me much faith in Stoll and his ilk. But, it this price, why sell after 12 years?
The reality is COR is a one-trick pony and that trick is Ampas. We, the holders, are "all-in". If we manage, despite all of the obstacles faced, to suceed and Ampas survive and thrive, then management has my blessing to diversify with in-licensing on their way to becoming the next Amgen. But, today's reality is we live and die with Ampas. Any management that doesn't get that is incompetent!
MF4
Just kidding you DavidAl. Still doesn't explain the misspelling of Ect/Etc
JerryDylan's real identity is none other than Davidal66
Why? And this is pure speculation, but:
1. DavidAl is two first names, but David is also a last name. We know Davidal is a bit of a hippie and perhaps when thinking about the name of his alter-ego, he decided to combine the names of two of his favorite 60's mucisians: Jerry Garcia and Bob Dylan?
2. They both use the incorrect abbreviation for Et Cetera as Ect. The correct spelling is: Etc.
"do we really need more restaurants, retail concepts, strip malls, casinos, corporate office buildings ect.." from post 2925. I noticed this spelling frequently from Davidal on the Yahoo boards.
The previous speculation was purely for my entertainment:
MF4
I wish Stoll would offer shareholders a chance to buy a share of COR and get a warrant for the same price. I'd double my position. I'd love to get warrants at this price. Good God!
GFP, look at message 1202 again. Dimension states that going into Sept.18 there was 600 open interest. But, on that day 5,000 contracts was the trading volume. And the open interest remained above 5,000 on the Nov 5 Puts for some time after. I remember thinking it odd that every other COR options contract had relatively low open interests in the <400 range, but this one had 10+ times the OI.
Another explanation for insider activity could have been that with the stock in the low $3s in September, most brokerages won't allow shorting, correct? So, buying the puts on a "sure thing" is similar to a hedged short position (if it goes above $5, you just lose your premium).
These puts were almost $2 in the money at the time they were purchased on a $3 stock. If they were used for hedging a long position, the buyer would be protecting below $3 and giving up all gain from $3-5. Only above $5 would the theoretical hedger start making money dollar per dollar, but that gain would be reduced $2 per share buy the cost of the puts. That's a huge percentage to give up for a hedge position. That's why I doubt it was an investor being cautious before a binary event.
It could be coincidence? But, it stinks of insider trading. I know that options trades aren't reported to the IRS. But stock trades are. Perhaps options aren't as easily traceable by the SEC as stock trades are either? Perhaps somebody's grandma wouldn't find it as obvious as some are guessing?
How does one trigger an investigation into this sort of thing anyway?
MF4
This is from Post 1202 on September 18, 2006 from a poster named Dimension:
A rather interesting development on the technical side of things today.
Current Open Interest on the Nov 5.00 puts were 600. Today, the volume was 5000+ (more than 8X the OI).
Something is afoot...as i don't think that's "Average Joe" that made that/those plays.
--------------------------------------
Sept. 18 COR Range $3.16 - $3.24 on 35,000 shares
5,000 put options bought. very unusual.
Oct. 26 COR range $2.96 - $3.12 on 130,400 shares
Oct. 27 COR range $1.80 - $2.27 on 3,147,800 shares
It opened at $2.25 and closed at $1.85 on huge volume.
The Put options last trading day was November 17. The stock closed at $1.63 and the puts were $3.37 in the money. Whomever bought these puts in September probably made $500-700K on a $1M investment.
Look at the timing: The Puts were bought 5 weeks before the drop, which happened the day after the after-hours conference call explaining that there was a histo finding. Previous to that, the initial lifting of the FDA hold was announced sans details of the dosing restriction on Oct. 9th. The puts were purchased just three weeks prior to that. The FDA must have known by Sept. 18 that they were going to release CX-717 with restrictions. Can we also assume that they were in touch with COR about it prior to Sept 18?
If so, it looks like somebody (either at the FDA or COR) leaked something or traded with insider information, while you and me got screwed. Is anybody else pissed off about this? Or do you think it's just a coincidence?
MF4
Hey Blade, I think of it as B & D. Organon is ridiculously slothful.
But, it may be that they are backing a competitor and are holding ampakines down deliberately.
That's another reason that any parnership MUST include EXPENSIVE time penalties for slothful behavior.
MF4
This reminds me about the 5,000 COR Put options that were bought this fall. GFP and myself had some discussion about how somebody must know something since that number of options controls half a million shares, and was very unusual in a single day. VERY!
Also, remember that at the time, the stock was in the $3+ range. The options were either $5 or $2.50 strike, Nov expiration, I believe.
If anybody knows how to trace or report this unusual activity, I bet the buyer was a single entity or maybe a couple. And odds are excellent that they "knew something", in retrospect. I would love for somebody who profitted from insider info (COR or FDA person) to get busted and do some jail time.
MF4
GFP. Don't you get it yet? There is a huge deal that is being tweaked right now that involves an equity swap, plenty of cash and two compounds for in-licensing in a swap. All with the same BP.
Quit being so negative!
MF4
Another suspicious news event adding to the spectre of doom that hangs over COR. Incredible! At $1 and change, people are still selling? Owning COR is like buying an option on Ampakines that doesn't expire. We know the stuff works. It's only a matter of time until Stoll can get us to a positive place (call me an optimist). But, 2006 has certainly been a bummer!!!
Remember in early March,2006 how we finally felt like COR was heading to the stars? WOW! I feel like I was sucker punched!
I've lost so much on paper already, what's another $1.30? Worse than losing that money would be kicking myself for eternity should the ship get righted and I had to live with myself having sold at the bottom and missed out on what I've waited 12 years for.
The re-assembled North American rights and synergy with Aricept alone make this a compelling risk. Unfortunately, with more dilution - but it can still work.
MF4
No more $5-10M deals. That's the previous CEO's M.O.