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They live in either Portland, Oregon or Vancouver, Washington...I can assure you they are not golfing. Like Mike said you are not going to get any worthwhile new information by calling the company...your dreaming.
You don't think Nader and Anthony feel the heat and urgency to get the news we are looking for accomplished. Think again, Nader has his life invested in this deal- he feels it every second of every day. He's moved us along and is not late on announcing any news. He's fighting an uphill battle right now with the SP because of the Paulson raises that give away Warrants. If they had a better option they would use it. The raises are to get through short windows of time because they believe they can organically increase the SP with the news that is on the immediate horizon. That is the truth of the matter. If Nader was lagging significantly behind in completing enrollment for the P3 Adjunct he has promised "as early as the end of Q1 2017" he would have raised significantly more $'s.
All this reaching for straws is fear driven. There is nothing in the data up to this point that says P3 Adjunct is going to fail.
I'll take that as a compliment BioTec. I think sometimes we post for our own sanity as much as for everybody else...no wait...make that all the time. lol
While the Warrants that are the carrot for the Paulson raises have a negative impact on SP the impact is not immediate. The shares purchased to own the Warrants have to be held a minimum of six months.
The dip into the .60's seems to have investors here rattled because it makes no sense with where we are in the FDA process based on the strength of the data up to this point. The only logical explanation is shares from previous Paulson raises are being dumped at a loss to cut risk while keeping their Warrants. Certainly plays hell with the SP.
The good news is the selling is not associated with negative news. A big black cloud will be lifted with positive P3 Adjunct PE announcement. The FDA granting BTD at the same time would shift this 180 degrees. Sooner than later would certainly add years to our lives.
Well said- No resistance . Easier said than done but where I continually strive to live life. Read the Untethered Soul.
Yes agreed. The longer we progress if it be with a partnership we would have more upside but with that comes the risk. There is no free lunch here. The question is what are we as individual willing to accept in terms of risk. Risk tolerance is not static because the changing of data changes the risk. I love this board because people are constantly reevaluating if the they have assessed the risk correctly. The key for me is to sift out the emotion and assumptions that are not based on facts but rather fear. Thank you for your opinions and perspective. It's a free country we all have the right to discount or reject...I'm looking for what I am missing because that can be quite damaging to the wallet and even more so to ones mental state.
I'll tell you Blane a deal is a deal. Partnership or Buyout is what we will take because it's a win. I've been in a long time and own a lot of shares and warrants. Would like to close the book on CYDY and move on.
Everything takes longer than expected so that becomes the expected. The question everyone is trying to ascertain is how close are we? Nobody knows except those that are not legally able to disclose. Even those close to the story can't say a peep or they'd screw their source. It's a much different investment mindset for those on the inside-they sleep better. Over the years I've learned how to process the information and remain grounded for the most part although I have had my moments.
I'm ready for some momentum that derisks Pro-140 to the level that BP moves...and that could be very soon.
The bar is set so low in the Adjunct Trial it is nearly impossible that PE will not be achieved given results up to this point. I think the duration of enrollment is what has most here concerned. That is simply a lack of understanding about the complexity of the protocol for the study and the lengthily communication with the FDA to reduce number of patients. Once enrollment is completed PE will be achieved one week later so that can be any day or worst case we slip into April.
The wild card is BTD. My experience is the FDA generally takes the entire 60 days regardless of which way they are leaning. Time generally provides more data for the FDA to base their decision on. It is impossible to know what the FDA is thinking and they can hang their hat on any minor detail to reject. Generally it is a safety issue combined with a lack efficacy-Pro-140 IMO easily passes all the criteria. Many on this board downplay the significance of BTD and while it is not a deal breaker it is like saying no to upgrading to a Ferrari when you are currently driving a Prius...your going to finish the race much later.
If we hit both catalysts the stage will be set for a possible end game this year. Final data P3 Adjunct and interim data P3 Mono will tell the story if we make it that far before being bought out. So we are on schedule and no news is not bad news. A very important month that will lead to even more important months- it's only going to get more exciting or intense depending on your mindset.
Anybody checking into this board lately would feel one thing- FEAR. Amazing how raising needed capital and no news translates into a gloomy future. As Lawman just posted it's all about the data-everything else is just noise. Couldn't agree more.
Thanks Jboat- that is clear.
I have seriously considered unloading some or all of my shares in favor of keeping the risk free warrants. My average strike price is .85. And yes I will go super long on those shares. The expiration on warrants is also a factor as my first expiration comes up Oct 2018. I averaged in with a big position at .80. And then the warrants as my risk free insurance. IMO we are at a very pivotal point with BTD and Adjunct P3 PE around the corner. If I was playing it safe I would obviously unload all my shares, keep the warrants and move on. I have to say my gut tells me that we sell for at least $2.5 per share worst case. Wait through P3 Mono interim with great data and the hole ballgame shifts to $7-$10 or more per shares. Pro-140 has a place in the Adjunct space at worst. The risk is we drag the P3 enrollment out and more HIV solutions become attractive. Bottom line is I'm waiting through these next two milestones. With the potential of Mono I'm all in at this point.
Jboat, I don't follow your math on a 10 bagger for Warrant holders that sold their shares. What price are you suggesting they sold their shares at? Also are you saying conservative buyout at 500m is $1.5-$2 per share?
How do you know BP has no interest. You/we have no idea what is going on behind closed doors and the wheels that are turning. BTD acceptance by the FDA and P3 Adjunct PE may bring a deal to fruition that is percolating right now. No news is not bad news especially when the news is not due out. Your posts for the most part are overkill-like taking ground beef that's already been ground and re-grinding over and over again until it turns into a paste that nobody wants to eat.
Marty, I never put anybody on ignore and I read everyone's perspective. Do you have any skin in the game? You showed up recently and make very pointed posts and expect to be idolized. Are you stirring the pot, looking for love, or serious about making a play here. If your done why should anybody care...do you have some perspective and insight that is missing on this board. If so please share.
Thank you for saying it just one more time. It is so obvious yet we have to listen to Pears, Mr. Experience ride this dead horse into the ground.
Yes. However the end result-long term result will not be altered. The short term implications on SP are negative. I could care less on the day trading BS. Not in it for minimal moves...there is going to be short attacks and plenty of reasons to bale. Can't wait until this heats up.
Couldn't have stated it better geastalt2. Thumbs up!
The quality of posts here has no place to go but up...a great board that went South...hopefully temporarily.
Respect is at the core of all lasting relationships. Those that demonstrate respect and humility are rich with the strength and depth of their relationships. Those that don't have decided they are more important than the whole and the people they come in contact with. Opinions are welcome but only when presented with respect. I would encourage all that understand and demonstrate that principle to contribute and not be run off this platform by the ignorance and lack of integrity of a few.
It would seem you are correct BH. The challenge is to think clearly. This message board is an example of how people's mind can wander down a path that is fear driven that is not the reality of where Pro-140 is. Speculation is just that...an educated guess at best. The fact is we have had no news bad or good for quite some time. CROI was a success but not a SP mover. We are in a holding pattern waiting on news that will dictate the fate of Pro-140. Silence makes people nervous...the silence is about to be broken.
I like the Google analogy. Pro-140 is disruptive and a couple steps away so we are just another Biotech play in the grind of the P3 process too many. Early adopters are the visionaries that make big $'s if they get it right.
Pro-140 is a calculated risk that has ALL major catalysts in play. With every catalyst that is cleared the risk will diminish. The unknown is will Pro-140 run the table on these catalysts or will we hit a wall at some point in the process. The Billion $ question is at what point will BP be convinced enough to take Pro-140 out. My belief is we have to make it to overwhelmingly positive interim data in reference to P3 Mono Trial-that is for a major return...10 bagger plus. Anything sooner is substantially less. Mono is what BP is really interested in. As Pears said a successful Adjunct P3 is the first bridge that must be crossed. The good news is the P3 Mono is in full tilt recruiting so they are being conducted simultaneously. My focus is on the data on both P3's which will tell us if Pro-140 is an unmarketable toothbrush or a Google. The data to this point heavilly favors a Google scenario.
Nice try Marty but your out in right field on that one. The reality is GILD is praying Pro-140 is everything and more - this has the the potential to preserve their dominance in the HIV space they are trying to protect. You can't protect an investment that is expiring you have to replace it.
Well said Gestalt. I have tried to maintain a perspective that allows me to see the forest through the trees as it is easy to get to close and lose perspective.
The science, efficacy, and safety is undeniable as a second line treatment. Nader's pathway for Pro-140 was to not attempt to eat the apple in one bite by going straight after Mono. The FDA basically said you are going to choke with that approach-prove Pro-140 as a second line Combo and we will consider the whole apple. Does anybody in their right mind think Pro-140 will not be approved as a second line treatment? Yes a few that have a fear of the five patients that experienced a rebound. As Misiu has stated a number of times the data is still strong and convincing even with the rebounders. The VL numbers were still very close to the 400 copies. I don't want to talk about info that has already been discussed. Point is Pro-140 is worth a minimum of $4-$6 per share with Adjunct/Combo label approval. That's going to happen at some point. Nader is focused on the rest of the apple. That is where the speculation and risk is concentrated. If I was betting my 500k shares on single agent Mono alone I would reduce my position. Fortunately we don't have to make that kind of bet, however we get the whole APPLE.
There is some truth to that Goldenisla however the action here was nonexistent two years ago. I mean I never posted because there was zip going on.
This now is a different ball game from every angle. The convergence of major milestones is accelerating at an increasing rate with each passing day. Investors and day traders / flippers are drawn to events that will Impact short and long term valuation and risk. We are in the hot zone right now and the temp is rising. This is what I have been waiting for for nearly four years. It's like reading a great novel and now the author is going to pull it all together in the final chapter and tell you how it plays out. A very rewarding final chapter is headed our way but not without a few twists.
Just because things are quiet doesn't mean GILD isn't interested or even talking with Anthony C. IMO the wheels are turning and GILD is well aware of the major milestones that are in play. At this point every significant catalyst is in play and that is great news. Let's see how many green lights CYDY can string together.
Ok Pears, I will take your word on that-I think you could go one day.
I understand your a confrontational, devils advocate type personality that has a tendency to overweigh some of the downside. That is because the chance that you may read this play wrong would be a blow to your intelligence and your wallet. The same feeling will be there if you bail and this ends up being a Grand Slam. We are all in the same predicament however some are more confident than others. It is good to be aware of all the moving parts and a disciplined investor has a responsibility to weigh all the facts. You are making sure we go through that exercise even when we don't want to hear the noise. If I could give you one word of advice it would be to demonstrate respect at all times...you owe that to yourself and the board.
Pears with humility like that you do have a side that do I dare say is likeable. Don't prove me wrong...at least not today lol.
And there you have it...Nice summary...I know which side I'm committed to...Do you?
I think there is a lot of nervous energy on both Adjunct P3 PE and the BTD decision due out between now and Mar 11. The warrant holders are on auto pilot dumping in this SP range. IMO those two milestones have the potential to completely change the valuation and perceived level of risk we have have been subject to. Im not worried about Adjunct because the past data says we will easily hit the numbers in VL copies. The FDA on the other hand is always a wildcard no matter how convincing the story seems to be. The good news is the FDA is guiding Nader or they wouldn't have applied without encouragement.
The best case near term scenario is first meeting and announcing P3 Adjunct PE and then follow it up with the FDA granting BTD. That would make sense and establish some serious momentum. This next month or so is going to dictate the speed at which Pro-140 is permitted to move down the pathway to BLA submission and FDA approval. Most importantly if the ball rolls our way it creates more urgency for a buyout. Anthony C just needs a little more bargaining power and he just may have it very soon.
Because of the private raises there is an endless supply of shares cashing out at the .75 range. It is hard to imagine the bar won't be raised significantly with positive P3 Adjunct PE and hopefully BTD. Just those two milestones will likely garner a more serious conversation between Anthony C and GILD. I can't imagine being out or reducing my position at this juncture. I mean how can a logical person build a position up to this point and run for the sidelines...this is what it's all about...right now through the remainder of the year if need be.
I think you nailed the big picture Grip it. All the clues are there...just a question of when we are sold and for how much. "If" we are sold doesn't enter my mind. It is a distinct possibility that we are sold at $4-$5 in April. Hope we hold out for Mono interim data and double that number. IMHO obviously.
If there was ever such a thing as a slam dunk it would be Adjunct PE. With the Viral Loads that are set for PE that is not the concern. On the radar...how many will go on the extension...that is the news...and then how long will they go? They will still be in Pro-140 when we are bought out.
BH, I think we see things through the same lens. Been extremely patient with CYDY as I bought into the science four years ago and have increased my position with private raises over the years. Not a day trader-I'm an investor and a business owner. Last year was one of disappointments as Adjunct enrollment was put on hold as Nader was stuck negotiating protocol for P3 Adjunct - time well spent... have to grind to get to the big dance. Finally rounding 3rd base and I sincerely believe we are oh so close to home plate. Your posts are far and between - more would be a plus.
Thank you Tony for your experience and opinion. Interesting that I spoke to a very savvy investor just after that post that echoed your comments. GILD is actually thrilled that they can swoop up a potential revenue producer like Pro-140 that could turn their ship around. They want Pro-140 to be a game changer. Pro-140 is very close to the tipping point. Just look at the clues:
Anthony C is brought into the forefront with a promotion and gifted 1M warrants at .76-message-go get it done big dog- your the man with the experience to negotiate a deal with GILD
Pro-140 is front and center at CROI conference surrounded by GILD presenters- Interest in the Themed Q&A is dominated by CYDY and Pro-140
Granting of BTD is within grasp and quite likely
Nader has already drilled down on dosing and made adjustment
P3 Adjunct PE results will be out within the next couple of months
P3 Mono in full tilt
GILD is looking to purchase rather than spend $'s on R&D
I agree with everything you said in your post. My belief is the current SP would be easily over $2 if the behind the scenes moves were known. This is a perfect storm waiting to happen. The only question in my mind is when and how much will Pro-140 garner. Obviously the longer this goes, risk is decreased and the bigger the number.
Pears, you are stuck in a world and a perspective that is as close to the "sky is falling" as I have ever witnessed. Do you know most people get what they think they are going to get- be careful. Your energy is so negative and polarizing that for the most part it carries very little credibility other than I am worried as s#!t. The reason I still read your posts is that you do bring up a relevant point now and then and I want ALL of the information and opinions even if I have to wade through a lot of muck to find a pearl.
For your own health and sanity listen to what Blane and Lawman posted...it's where we are right now. Instead of letting the wave crush you...ride it!
Personally after listening to Dr. Kush Dhody and the way he handled the questions I felt the same way. Not a resistance problem as increased dosing could dramatically impact results positively.
I am very excited about what I see with the data and the pathway and strategy Pro-140 is implementing. The P3 Mono is going to tell the story and long before it is completed. BTD expedites everything including urgency for BP (i.e. GILD specifically) to make some big decisions. IMO we are still a few catalysts away from getting BP to move but they are now monitoring Pro-140 progress more closely. BTD will ramp up the monitoring. CYDY has been like a little gnat buzzing around continuing to be a nuisance to BP...with the granting of BTD and successful P3 Adjunct we become a Bee that can sting.
BTD is a big deal period. It places Pro-140 front and center with the FDA. It will give the credibility we are desperately in need of. FDA support in the form of BTD sends a huge message to GILD and GSK. They will have to take Pro-140 seriously now not later.
Make that 3.
I don't think the FDA will take the full 60 days. Could have an answer any day...fingers crossed. Just never know with the FDA.
Dr. Kush Dhody does a good job of presenting at the "I want a new drug" Themed discussion. Of the several Gilead presentations along with Merck, Little CYDY received most of the questions in Q&A portion. Kush did an excellent job of explaining and answering questions about the efficacy and safety of Pro-140. IMHO Pro-140 has the HIV's scientific community's attention and curiosity. In listening my takeaway was Adjunct P3 will be successful. The real hard data that will make the difference between a $3-$5 buyout and a $10 plus is pinpointing doseage in the P3 Mono and determining why some patients experienced a rebound in Viral Load. Although the failure rate was low through the P2 trials that is the most important question that needs to be answered. If this can be identified so that the patient profile that will not respond is defined BP is going to jump like a wolf on a buyout. It is quite possible that it is simply a dosing issue. All and all my takeaway was we are completely different and disruptive and we have BP's attention. GILD and GSK would like to see us go away-I hope that are not powerful enough to influence a nagative decision from the FDA on granting BTD. This is going to get very interesting. Good job Dr. Kush Dhody! The medical professionals on this board need to listen and weigh in. Go to www.cytodyn.com. It's all there.
I have not been contacted about a private raise by Paulson. Even though they raised 1.2 M recently they will need more $'s soon. My guess is they raised a small amount thinking BTD might be granted or Adjunct P3 enrollment completed or other catalysts would be met in the short term allowing for a pop in SP. that would make for a higher SP for a private offering. Maybe they thought they would get a more substantial pop out of CROI and we still might. It would be nice to know everything Nader knows. All speculation on my part.
Let's talk about the elephant in the room. Paulson private raises have funded CYDY for quite some time and appear to be our best option to raise $'s. Total transparency with these raises has been communicated by myself and others on this board. The "Paulson Idiot" is not happy with the Paulson raises. I think we would all agree we would prefer a different method to raise $'s. The fact is the majority of the shares that are purchased to obtain the rights to warrants are going to be dumped at or close to their purchase price-its where we are right now and will not change until more catalysts are hit creating a tipping point that derisks CYDY as an investment. The good news is even if you can't get into the private raise that is coming you can purchase on the open market RIGHT NOW at very close to the last and I would suspect the upcoming Private raise SP. BTD or positive news in Adjunct or Mono P3 would move the SP and offering price up. There are some rules that buffer the impact of these offerings. The shares in the private raise cannot be sold for a minimum of six months in most cases to decrease impact on SP. Timing is everything and with so many major catalysts on the short term horizon (Q1-Q2) the dumping could stop on a dime and shift to a very bullish market. As I've said I'm all in - not selling any shares - I'm keeping everything, shares I purchased myself years ago, shares from private offerings and the warrants obviously- the whole enchilada. When Pro-140 hits the tipping point in terms of data which will be led by the FDA granting BTD this stock is not going to look back.