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Yeah, it looks like the data coming out today has wall street on edge. I'm not going to get over technical but that trip down last night and the ensuing retrace back to the low 60's and then low 50's is setting the markets up for a move in either direction. That may sound like common sense, of course they're gonna move one way of the other but the point I'm making is it takes away any bias and leaves guys like me wondering and waiting for them to tip their hand.
As unlikely as this may seem if this move higher from the overnight lows is not a b wave we could see another high over 2081. It's not my base case but I have to point out the possibility. We only have two trading days remaining this week and I'm expecting a bottom before the weekend of Monday at the latest. Right now we need to see how and where this move lower works out.
Yeah what a tease. As long as we don't go over 2067 this can be a diagonal and we can head right back down.
Did they change the name from iHub to Tradershub?
Gold and silver haven't really done much since the close yesterday but gold did make a slightly lower low this morning so I'm still watching for clues to the next move. I have no reason to not continue to look lower but that tiny new low looks labored so we'll see if they have something else in store.
RGSE released earnings yesterday. Of course they weren't very good which was for the most part expected. This has a chance to squeeze again so I'm watching.
Uranium URA, I know we're watching these plays so I think it's a good idea to keep an eye on URA. Watch for the next low below $10. That should be our long term bottom. While this is considered a energy play the fundamentals are not the same so I don't group them with either oil or Nat Gas. This is a separate entity that should be dealt with accordingly.
Good Morning EST, I wanted to get an early start this morning and it's a good thing I did. The markets made a new low all the way down to 2033 but have since recovered to 2057. This is exactly and I mean to the penny where it should stop. Now since we got this immediate bounce it opens up a few possibilities that are somewhat more complex than the relatively straight forward prospect we were looking at yesterday. It's gonna take me a bit to mark up my charts but the markets don't open for about an hour anyway.
There are some good looking charts in that stack of pinchers.
One more thing before I go. I understand that most don't understand my methods but we're getting close to a major opportunity. Not only are the commodities setting up but so are the small caps. So what I'm going to do is to post a few charts that have what I call 1-2-i-ii set-ups in hopes that you guys can come up with as many other tickers that have a similar pattern. That way we go through and pick out the best of the bunch and let everyone know what we're playing before we even get close to an entry. I don't mind being above board because it's not like we're front loading pinks or something like that.
Actually the more plays we have on the list to start with the better off we'll be. At least that way the fundamental guys will have a chance to look them over and feel more confident when they put their money on the line. You know me I'm a chart guy but I can see how it could make the fundamentalist more comfortable if they had a chance to go over the numbers before we play 'em. You know I wouldn't mind having an additional opinion from the other side myself, it certainly couldn't hurt. I think it could work out pretty good for both sides. That's how the wall street firms operate. They have both fundamentalist and technicals on staff making decisions based of input from both. Smart if you think about.
Going to get some rest. See you guys in the morning.
Thanks, you guys keep me on my toes.
No worries, I'm just glad this ES play worked out. I'm gonna exit my short volatility plays at the bottom and make the switch to XIV again. I'm also watching gold, silver, miners, oil, nat gas, and energy plays for my next round or should I say my first round on plays for this Q. I also want to remind everyone that I'm still expecting IMW to pullback at which time I plan to add a basket of small caps for what I think will be a $15-$20 run. I'm not sure which one's I'm going to carry yet but whatever they are I'm gonna make sure they're set to move with the Russell.
Very red, ES dipped down into the 30's already and I still think it's going lower. My target remains 2020 but if you remember I did say there was an outside chance we could break 2000. We're currently targeting just above that but this move could end up gapping up after hours once it bottoms to trap shorts. So depending on where this move ends I mat cut out at skip the final little bounce and dip.
I see it but not overly concerned.
I'm thinking at least $27 but I don't want to start looking to far beyond they, "yet"........
My VXX target remains unchanged.
I don't think 1178 was bottom for gold but I do think we'll see the bottom in the morning. If we're close or even below that 1170 number in the morning I'm going to add NUGT and hold for a while. If this works out the way I think it will we're gonna see a huge return for NUGT.
Would have been nice to sell UVXY for $19.12 today, lol
Of course, didn't even consider selling
It is and actually we're targeting lower right for the moment.
Just made it back, see we got a nice close.
Yep!!!!!
The door is wide open for the markets to accelerate to the downside, all it's needs to do is step through.
That's about what I have but I think it's back over 13 before under 11.
We could see a brief spike here but nothing to be concerned about.
ES should stay below 2072.50
Ok this is it, ES should see a high on this bounce in the 71-73 area and roll over. So if you're planning on adding volitility this roll would be the time to do.
The markets are looking very much like we're gonna get the rest of the downside move. I'd like to see ES poke it's head back above 2070 one more time just to be sure.
I called for an 1170 bottom with gold and this morning it hit 1178, not sure if that gonna be it or we get one more dip, 1170 is the bottom of my target so we'll see.
Just so you guys know gold/oil are looking at local bottoms and if they find one in this general area they're gonna launch higher. As soon as I can confirm a bottom I will but I don't want to jump the gun and get any of us under water.
IWM is only .15 away from LOD, if that breaks it could lead the charge lower.
ES is in a position to confirm downside movement. We should get a bounce here in a few mins and if it doesn't move up impulsively we'll most likely see a hard drop when it completes.
The VXX chart is completely jacked up,
If we break 2082 I'll change my outlook but won't sell TVIX yet. If not I'll add TVIX and hold for the next move lower
Hard to argue with that.
Wow, over 160 tickers halted