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How much do they make? Do they get spiffed for anything?
Store feedback
Stores here in Portland have been busy everytime I have gone by them, most recently the Bridgeport Village store yesterday early afternoon. About 10 people in cash register lines - store was busy but not crowded.
I see signs pointing to very nice January events. What contrary signs could I be missing? I am excited enough to have taken January 10th and half of the 18th off work.
Ron
I agree on the political post thing. Maybe Blue or someone could crank up a listerv for such a purpose, for those who want to keep the discussion entre nous.
Firewire is dead. Long live firewire
Interesting times, these.
Sold enough
of the Jan 72.50 and Feb 80's that I had bought earlier to come within a wee bit of covering the cost of those two positions. Holding the rest of them (about 1/3 of them) will be a more tranquil experience now.
Tranquility can be good.
Shuffle deriv action
Do you think Apple will do a 1 gig Nano? Seems like it would be a hit, leveraging the Nano popularity. Don't know what you'd do about the low end, then, though.
.Mac bandwidth
Does it make sense to tie the content distribution system to .Mac? It does in some ways, if .Mac becomes Windows friendly and the price goes down.
Or, maybe I'm reading something into the reported increase / planned increase in .Mac bandwidth that just isn't there.
In the meantime, gold stocks be flying :)
Ron
Wearable headset system makes video iPod seem like a 105" display
A company that makes video display products for military and industrial uses is setting its sights on a new market -- the iPod.
Bellevue-based eMagin Corp. has developed a wearable headset system that plugs into Apple Computer's portable media device and displays video from it in front of one eye, using optical technology designed to give the picture a higher resolution and make it appear larger than on the iPod's screen.
Gary Jones, president and CEO of eMagin Corp. of Bellevue, demonstrates his company's new wearable display for video iPods. Using the EyeBud headset is akin to watching a 105-inch display from 12 feet away. "Suddenly you've got this big-screen, movie-screen, home-theater experience wherever you are," he says.
The system, dubbed the EyeBud 800, is another entry in the booming ecosystem of accessories and complementary products that has emerged around Apple's portable music player. But this isn't in the realm of a $20 carrying case. Scheduled to debut in the first half of this year, the EyeBud is expected to retail for as much as $599 -- $200 more than the cost of a 60-gigabyte iPod.
But eMagin's executives are betting that the notion of a virtual big screen will win people over. With the proximity of the screen to the eye, and the magnifying effect of the company's optical technology, the company says that using the headset is akin to watching a 105-inch display from 12 feet away.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/254134_ipodscreen02.html?source=iL
i don't know if Apple is ready yet,
Heck we're not even sure what their strategy is, but.......
Given the timing of the VIIV platform, the intro of Vista in late 2006, the Cisco set top box initiative and any other things that are out there - this MW sure would seem a good time to come forth with a home entertainment center announcement. It would give Apple time to bring out improvements / feature fixes this summer and to be on the market for a while before that other stuff gets pumped.
OT tomm
Natural resource extraction has environmental consequences. No doubt.
Semi OT: I'm making a list, checking it twice
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=9083048
I'm making a list, checking it twice
And here is what I come up with for 2006 for the individual stock part of my portfolio.
Unlike Frank, I like gold :), and have moved from the $500 in '05 club to the $600 in '06 club. I took a lot of profits in October and December, did a couple of trades in Yamana, Gammon Lake, Goldcorp and Novagold in December and ended the year holding GG and Gammon Lake. I plan to add Yamana and Novagold sometime in the first quarter and then I plan to hold for the rest of the year, contingent, of course, on developments during the year.
Just read some of the Placer Dome exploration results of the high grade zone that crosses into the Campbell mine property from GG's Red Lake property. I likey the fact that GG will end up with this property soon.
Yamana's purchase of RNC Gold at what can only be described as a very good price caused me to like this company even more. Before the purchase they had good reserves and projected increasing production through 2007-08.
Gammon Lake goes into production in Q1 2006. This from their website:
A positive feasibility study was completed in November 2004 for phase one development of the Ocampo Project, demonstrating extremely robust economic potential. Annual production is expected to average 270,000 ounces gold-equivalent (170,000 oz. gold and 6-million oz. silver) over the first seven years of mining, at a cash cost of US $151.74 per gold-equivalent ounce. Production from the first year of operation is anticipated to exceed 300,000 gold-equivalent ounces. At a US $400 gold price and US $6.50 silver price, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for the Project is 65%.
Novagold - well, big reserves, low political risk. I wonder how Barrick will want to move on the JV at Donlin Creek it is picking up in the Placer Dome deal.
I am unsure about energy fore 2006, going to watch it some. I like the CHK insider buys and that company is on the list. I am completely out of energy for now. Could be back in with a small position or two pretty quickly, but I don't think I'll be as heavy as I was during part of 2005 - when I was 1/3 energy for part of the year.
Apple Computer. Overweight now, will be taking some profits going into MacWorld and earnings annoucements over the next 2 1/2 weeks (may be optimistic of me to think it is going up during that time frame :) ), but will hold core position throughout the year and probably for the rest of the decade. I would have done better last year if I had not traded AAPL. Resolving to have a core position for all of 2006.
Then there is that speculative position in Golden Phoenix (GPXM). They should start producing molybdenum this year. I have been patient with it, buying in at .143 and am still holding. Hope good things happen to it this year.
That is it for now. Main changes are going from the gold mutual fund and stocks to just gold stocks in 2006 and having no energy going into the year. About 10% cash in this account now, and that will move to near 40% as I sell Apple trading shares.
It is pretty concentrated. Diversification comes in another account - a 401k like one. That one gained 10.3% in 2005. The one I've been writing about here did 4x better than that in 2005. I think 2006 will be pretty good also. I have improved somewhat since I started doing this stuff in 1998. Have traded some during the last month, which is a bit out of my comfort zone, but it has worked out all right. Hope to be back to the 'hold longer' style by March.
May market forces and our choices yield excellent results in 2006!! Hoping amarksp has a good year with Yamana :)!!
Ron
Have good years ya'll.
fuzzy for whom
I think it is a little fuzzier today than it was when we were running visicalc on a IIe. I suspect it is going to get fuzzier as we move toward more ubiquitous computing devices, many of them specialized.
I just thought I would raise the point. If Apple releases a Mac Mini based media box with a iPod dock that can easily hook up to your TV and stream movies and other video content - that can also run MSFT Office, is it a computer or a media center?
Over/Under
Another question. If Apple brings out a home entertainment server/whatever - do they count as computers?
Things seem to be getting pretty fuzzy out there.
tomm asks us to post our predictions in the board info graphic.
I predict that both Kathy and I will have some AAPL in our IRA's every day in 2006.
I predict we won't be sorry come December 31, 2006.
2006 Prediction #1: The Year Of The Mac
Posted by Stowe Boyd December 30, 2005
* Apple and the Battle for the Living Room -- I am predicting that Apple's Kaliedoscope project, which couples a souped-up Mac Mini with DVR software and iPod docking station, will destroy Microsoft's hopes for living room/entertainment center dominance. This product will be a huge, iPod-sized hit, and all of a sudden millions of American hopes will have a Mac in the living room. Game over.
This is my number 1 dream for the MacWorld Just One More Thing award.
http://www.corante.com/getreal/archives/2005/12/30/2006_prediction_1_the_year_of_the_mac.php
Intel - Apple - media center article
Recent rumblings on the West coast of Intel giving Apple preferrential treatment, much to the chagrin of veteran Intel PC partners, further aligns itself with views that Apple and Intel's partnership may just be much richer and complex than first imagined. In fact, the full nature of Apple's switch to Intel processors is not totally understood, leading many to speculate about what that relationship fully entails.
and more at:
http://www.architosh.com/news/2005-12/2005a1230_intel-homeapple.html
I hope it is not a bake-off with a Windows machine. I hope we are so passed that - as in that is so 90's. It ain't about speed any more, not for a MW.
I would like to see Steve make a call to Phil with his iPhone and ask Phil to crank up a movie on an Apple iHome Entertainment box that plays in hi-def on a really big flat-panel telly.
Then, come WWDC, bring out the big iron bake-offs:)
MacWorld predictions - One More Thing
There are allegations and rumours that MW will be a circus this year - new video content deals, intel inside computers, continued creeping toward a home media scheme, maybe a 1 gig Nano (I think that would be brilliant and should replace the 1 gig shuffle altogether) etc....
What are your prognostications for the One More Thing during the keynote at MW 2006?
Photo Booth Popular with Apple store visitors
December 30, 2005
It’s not clear how many iMac computers Apple is selling because of its included Photo Booth software, but it’s become popular with visitors, who use the software to snap their picture and e-mail it to friends right from the store. The photo album site Flickr and others have scores of Photo Booth photos posted, showing wild colors and strangely-distorted faces staring into the iMac screen in the midst of an Apple store. The only thing missing from the set-up–the curtain.
It is a fun little app. Between starting a photo slide show and iTunes with the little remote and snapping photos with photo booth, our Boxing Day guests were very impressed with the new iMac. It is a very impressive machine
http://www.ifoapplestore.com/2005/12/30/photo-booth-a-big-hit-with-store-visitors/
Would be nice to see a bounce here, but......
My money is staying where it is unless AAPL goes to the mid 60's in the next week or so
lango - uber-bull :). eom.
Re: The college should buy me one
A couple of distinctions are needed. I am not a prof, I am administrative - the Research Evaluation Coordinator for the district. The district includes 3 comprehensive community college campuses and numerous other sites. Not near as large as Dade Country Community College, but one of the 25 or so largest in the country, nonetheless.
At most universities/colleges, computer stuff is part of the negotiation with new, incoming faculty, and they get pretty much what they ask for.
Administrative computing is different. Our IT staff is either hostile or indifferent to Macs - despite the challenges of supporting/protecting Windows machines. The Dean of Students at one campus is a Mac user, but she is the only administrator I see on a regular basis who takes her iBook everywhere with her.
As the number 2 staffer in the Office of Institutional Effectiveness (Institutional Research, Assessment and Planning), I think I could talk my boss, the Director, into it. Accounting would have nothing to do with it, other than paying the bill. Budget stuff is an issue. I might have to shame them into it by offering to pay the difference out of pocket.
Here is the thing, though. Using an XP box is not a burden. It is not significantly worse than OS X to use. It just works 98% of the time. That is the truth. Not as purty as an iMac, but functional, given our enterprise virus/spyware protection capabilities.
Ron
Schiller, marketing, backlash, etc...
One would hope that Apple has learned some lessons since introducing the iPod for Windows. The specific lesson would be that increasing the pool of potential customers can increase hardware sales.
I will always have a Mac at home. I will never have one at work, unless.....I can boot XP on it and run SAS for Windows and SurveyPro on it. If Apple came out with a machine that could boot to Windows and the cost differential between it and a Windows box was not too great, I think I could pretty easily make the case that the college should buy one for me.
While I am a unique being, I am sure there are many others out there. I hypothesize that Apple will significantly reduce its sales if they lock out other OSs on their new Intel hardware. I sure hope they can find a way to control the installation of OS X on non-Apple boxes.
Apple should control when they want to sell OS X to Dell, HP and other boxmakers :)
Thanks tomm,
that is fine by me. I would like to be able to run Windows on a Mactel - concurrent Windows / OS X sessions on a mactel would be best.
Well then please use a few more words and tell us what you mean :).
Apple staff had been quoted as saying they would not prevent people from booting to XP on these boxes. Are you suggesting that Apple will prevent that?
I seem to be having a dense day, please forgive me.
Tom, do you mean concurrent multi OS? eom.
Paper,
I think one should be able to run windows on the Mactels, if I have read things correctly you should be able to boot into OS X or Windows.
I do not have a clue if we will be able to run both concurrently. If we were able to, I think I could get the college to buy me a Mac for my office. I have to be able to use Windows here, for a couple of programs for which there are not Mac versions. These are the two I rely on the most to make a living :).
Ron
Will the fruit bounce off the 20 day moving average?
Has it worked off its overbought status? Will it go oversold before reversing.
Maybe we'll have an answer by the end of the day.
But just holding will answer all these questions - but if we get what looks like an attractive buying point - I might do some buying. It is within a wee bit of where I bought me last bushel.
Bootz.
Good luck!!
This here investing stuff is fun
and I think I am getting a little better at it. Course, it seems like any human capable of reading and learning and stuff should after a few years :).
Here is another one, with aa table to real estate prices in 147 markets along with YOY changes. At least it lets you get to some real data without the data that I found confusing and misleading in the WSJ article.
For example, it referred to changes in the Spokane market - where there was quite a change but where the median house price, according to the CNN/Money article was under 170k. San Diego, OTOH, had a median price of 615k.
http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/nar_3q05/city.html#table
Note to Stevie
Accelerate iTunes/iPod phone development
iPod accessory shorts
http://www.freshpair.com/Play-iBoxer-Solid-Boxer-013976.html
bought some CHK @ 30.95 in the pre-mkt trading session.
Had sold FSNGX on December 20.
re: I think 2006 should be a very good year for Apple's business,
I'm with you on that one - just so there is no misunderstanding by anyone reading words of mine that are tinged with some caution.
Thanks lango
In the Portland market buying v. renting today makes very little sense when looked at in terms of monthly cost of housing. OTOH, about 5000 apartments were convereted or are in the process of being converted to condos - and the significant dislocation for those who rented and cannot afford to buy their apartments have been in the news.
If I were single, I probably would have sold this past summer and paid cash for a small condo - but I am not and Kathy loves her house and has done significant remodeling / projects. As far as selling and renting - if one bought at the house prices of 5-6 years ago, that does not save one monthly money in this neck of the woods.
Personal bottom line - we gotta live somewhere, we have a nice little house with a bigger than average lot (1/4 acre - most new homes are being built on 1/8 acre or smaller), and we are in the best school district in the state. Our payment/taxes/insurance is around 1200 a month - it has appreciated in price an average of 2000 a month in the 5 1/2 years we have owned it. Current appraised value is higher today than what I have in my retirement planning spreadsheets for the year 2011 :).
I know that real estate speculators may get stung and that has consequences beyond home owners who plan to stay put for quite a while. I know that folks with ARMs or some of the new mortgage products may get stung and that has implications for the broader economy. I have not studied at any depth what the extent of those implications may be, but with other factors possibly affecting disposable income for consumers over the next period of time, it makes me a bit cautious going forward.
This is particularly true for investments in Apple Computer, which seems more directly connected to consumer spending than, for example, Dell Computer. It is one reason why the three lots of AAPL I bought in the past month and the Jan and Feb calls I am holding will probably be gone in the next month - but they were bought for a trade. The other AAPL, well I still think the bull case for AAPL for 2006 and beyond is pretty strong and I plan to hold those.
Fund managers at the California Public Employees Retirement System and at Hermes Pensions Management Ltd in the United Kingdom said this month they may invest in commodities for the first time. Investor demand will drive gold to US$515 an ounce on average next year, Goldman Sachs Group said last week. The average this year is US$444.
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/art/2005/12/28/231917/Analysts_forecast_a_new_rush_to_gold.htm
OK, alt and lango
Alt - I ever asserted there was no real estate bubble. I asserted that in much of the country there was not. I was referring to geographic areas. If you did it by population centers, I am not sure how it would turn out.
On Apple and economic conditions. I have been sharing my concerns for some time re: the effect of higher home heating bills on Apple sales this winter - and that will show up in the next quarter, if it is going to.
Lango - I like the affordability index better than the rental - ownership thing. I cannot recall exactly all the figures on the affordability index from the last time I checked, but it sucked for markets like Las Vegas, the SF bay area, and San Diego. Portland had the most affordable market on the west coast, followed by Seattle. In Portland, 78% of those at the median income could afford a house at the median house price, as I recall. The number for SF Bay area and San Diego were in the low 40's, as I recall.
On the Apple and economy thing. I view it kind of like poker hands. We have a good hand on this deal and can play it aggressivly right now. A new hand will be dealt within a few weeks. In my view, it will be best not to risk whatever winnings we have on the next hand. Ante up, yes. Call some small raises, certainly. Go all in at that point - not this cowboy.
So, to summarize, there are markets in the US where there probably are real estate bubbles. Lots of people live in those markets. There are many markets where there are not bubbles.
Do a search on real estate bubbles and FDIC. You should find a couple of articles with historical data on bubbles and busts. They may be a bit optimistic, since the increases in RE value over the past few years is not the norm.
Ron
Altaire,
I'd prefer to let the pros define what is a bubble and what is a bust. In most of the USA no bubble exists. That is the fact.
Will real estate prices decline in most USA markets? Time will tell. We'll know in a year or two. Until then we be gum-flapping :)