You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you get want you need. Rolling Stones
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YMike, I saw most if not all of the post last night. I found it very entertaining reading through them. Although, one may think this board is for informational purposes only (concerning ERHC). I believe many posters and readers come here to enjoy the banter amongst the various characters that post here and we do have some real characters.
I believe posts that are "entertaining" to the members of our board should remain. ESPECIALLY my humorous posts and I am very upset that my posts were removed. I am sure those that read my posts enjoyed them and enjoyed the entire banter that went on last night. Life is too short to eliminate some of the "good" parts and last night was good for me. I am sorry it was not good for you. LIGHTEN UP!
DeGen
Ps: You have mail
Fishdog, good guess and the mystery post still remains unsolved. Maybe Mr. Phant will clear things up.
Ps: the 50 posts were better than American Idol!
April 15 should have NO effect on the SP. There should be little if ANY shares sold because of the tax deadline. Last year gains on any stock especially ERHC were far and few between. If anything investors had many other stock losses to offset any possible gains. Also, and most important, the tax deadline for calculating gains and losses is Dec 31 NOT April 15th.
Mr. Phant, it appears in your last comment/post, "Yea, Addax would openly talk about merger plans." there is a bit of sarcasm. Therefore, I must agree that with you that it is very unlikely that Addax would be discussing any merger plan openly IF negotiations were going on. But what I do not understand is why you have gone back to talking in riddles or sarcastically? There is no need to do this. We are all adults here and have a command of the English language. So I would appreciate only "straight talk" in the future. This will gain you more respect then you have garnished from you past riddles. And at this point in time you very much need to gain some respect.
Previously posted by Ruby, but I thought others may want to listen to the ADDAX presentation and not have to search it out.
Latest DETAILED JDZ updates tomorrow early 5:30AM EST
A live webcast of the London presentation will be available via the following link:
http://w.on24.com/r.htm?e=137992&s=1&k=3DAFF41278BAFFC2D19F4B5A419791E4
............
Addax Petroleum announces London and Toronto Capital Markets Days
CALGARY, March 17 Addax Petroleum will host a management presentation to financial analysts and investors on Monday, March 23, 2009 in London, U.K. and on Tuesday, March 24, 2009 in Toronto, Canada.
The Corporation's senior management team, including Mr. Jean Claude Gandur, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. James Pearce, Chief Operating Officer, Mr. Michael Ebsary, Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Jeff Schrull, General Manager Exploration, and Mr. Henry Legarre, Technical Manager Middle East will discuss the Corporation's most recent operating results and expectations regarding future operations.
Conference call / webcast details
London
Date: Monday, March 23, 2009
Time: 10:30 a.m. London, U.K. time / 5:30 a.m. EST
To listen to the conference calls, please call one of the following:
Toronto and International: +1 416 644 3414
Toll-free (Canada and the U.S): +1 800 733 7571
Toll-free (U.K.): 00 800 2288 3501
Toll-free (Switzerland): 00 800 2288 3501
A replay of the London conference call will be available at +1 (416) 640-1917 or +1 (877) 289-8525, passcode 21300638 followed by the number sign until Thursday, April 23, 2009.
SPP119, thank you for your reply and your input from the London (Addax) presentation. Aren't you one of the oil experts here that have indicated that you need more than one well drilled to prove up reserves? Aside from that, after drilling Kina and Bomu will Addax be able to "claim" more oil than that is reported at present (Kina (352Mmbls unrisked - figure includes Kina South) and Bomu (274Mmbls unrisked))? or will additional wells be needed to be drilled to substantiate any bigger numbers?
Also, those unrisked numbers stated by Addax would already indicate that ERHC has about half a billion of barrels of oil (unrisked) after you correlate EHRC's %s with Addax %s in blocks 2 & 4. It would appear to me that this London presentation is what is causing todays price rise. People are more and more beginning to realize how much oil ERHC has control over. Do you agree with my thoughts? TIA
Mark, some oil experts here indicate that drilling only one well is not enough to "prove" reserves. I realize that Kina will have a second well drilled, i.e. Kina South, but I wonder if that second Kina drilling will prove up reserves. I still really like the fact that the AA will be coming along to put 4-8 more holes in our blocks. Keep in mind only 3 of the 4 DP's holes will be in the JDZ. The more holes, the more the oil will be proven, even if the holes are drilled at different locations in the Blocks, if the results are good the share price will reflect any and all positive results of drilling. The more drilling the better we are off as ERHC shareholders. I will be very disappointed if the AA does not drill a few holes for ADDAX.
I think the short time traders who got in around 25 or under took this opportunity at 36-37 to take some quick profits (50%!) and look to get back in on a pull back. I do not think this will prove the correct strategy as more then likely the SP will continue upward with only minor pullbacks. The oil figures ADDAX put forth early this AM were VERY encouraging and the fact that the Red Chip report is shredded makes the ADDAX more meaningful. As I continue to say, the closer we get to when the drill hits the ocean bottom, the harder and harder it will be to buy cheap shares. There should be no more really cheap shares in the twenties, in the next week or two, it is likely those shares in the thirties will disappears, in several months those shares in the forties will be gone. Onward and upward to that dollar mark.
Although I have withstood the past down slide over the last three years, hopefully that was just an opportunity to buy more shares at low prices. My buys at 10.53, 25-26, 29, 23, and even those in the low 40s last May all brought my average cost down nicely. My first buys in Feb - Apr 2006, right before the DOJ "event" were very costly, especially the buys in the nineties. Right now I am very happy holding a boatload of shares and just waiting for the results of the all those wells that WILL be drilled over the next nine to twelve months.
kownski, If you think the BOD is going to do ANYTHING about the Red Chip report, please DO NOT hold your breath. The only only thing they will do is hold hope that as time goes by, the report is forgotten. The only thing EHRC will do is NEVER do any business ever again with Red Chip. No more money wasted on those presentations, thank God.
Pup, so glad to see you post more than one a year! I look forward to your input here and respect your postings.
To "analyze" what you said, although I did not like the thought that Sinopec does not like the idea of being an operator in the deep water, I do like the fact that they are talking with a National oil company. Hopefully discussing a partnership to help develop their interests in the JDZ or possibly sell out their interests. The fact that the March 2010 drilling deadline is FAST approaching, Sinopec must get their ass in gear to meet the deadline. Or Sinopec can pass along their interests and let someone else worry about the problem. Addaz certainly comes to mind and with JCG being a "cool operator" he may decide to become the kingpin in the JDZ. So all in all, I take your information as a positive, hoping JCG will take the ball and run (or slam dunk now that it is March madness).
petermantx, I am not stock expert either, nor do I follow (or believe in) charting stocks. But what I believe to be true is that if you want to buy, you buy at ask and if you want to sell you sell at bid. Therefore, the wider the spread between bid and ask, the less trading there is. No one want to buy at 32 and then only be able to sell it for 30. So if the spread is more than a 3%, trading slows to a crawl. In fact, a 3% spread is way too much and you would never have such a spread if the stock was listed on a major exchange. Stocks like Citibank even though they are trading for $2 the spread is about the same as our stock which is trading at 1/7 the price of Citibank. If you look at Apple, trading over 100, the bid/ask is usually about 5 cents apart if not LESS.
So the real key is keeping the bid/ask close enough together to encourage trading. Sometimes the MMs just do NOT want to do that and allow only desperate sellers to sell and over eager buyers to buy. This means very little volume. BWTFDIK
As the SP hovers around 30 cents with moderate to low volume I wonder why there isn't more of a push upwards since the price of oil continues to go up (breaking $50). There is been some correlation to the rise in the price of oil with our SP in the past. It also looks like our SP may break into the mid thirties very soon since there is only one MM at 31 ask and the next in line is at 34. The only problem is that bid is at 29 with no one in a hurry to buy. I would hope the urgency to buy will become more prominent as the time for drilling approaches.
DeGen
Ps: Kramer going to discuss oil tonight (6pm EST)
Michigan, you say it's same old,same old, but you can not expect high volume every day. There is still six months before drilling which gives people ample time to wait before jumping in. Also, and most important, the SP is NOT drifting down like it usually does with low volume. So it's not quite same old, same old. I expect the SP to finish in the green today or at least neutral. You have been waiting ten years so what's another few months! Keep the faith.
Troy, all the "research" (seismic studies) are in place and look really good to those in the know (I am Not an expect). The only thing left is to drill and prove up what we all suspect is down there. The wait for drilling gets shorter everyday and this will continue to put upward pressure on the SP. The expected drilling date is late September which is about six months away. This soon really does mean soon and this is not an AFrican Timeline this time.
DeGen
Ps: I keep thinking of that Rod Stewart song, Maggie Mae, "it's late September and should be back at school, but I'm making so much money (from ERHC) I could drool. Or something like that...
Although I have indicated all the investors in ERHC are degenerate gamblers in the past. It appears as the days pass the odds are now favoring us more and more. It appears the slow climb back up will continue and the BIG spike will occur both when drilling and the reported results occur. I sure like betting on a sure thing and now that I am "all in" I like my "bet" even better. I do not foresee any bad news on the horizon so this looks like a sure thing to me.
smallfish, you state ERHC did not do the pump. In your post that you accuse this of being a pump and dump you are responding to MY post. Therefore it appears to me you are accusing ME of pumping and dumping. I emphatically deny that accusation! I am a long term holder and have over the last three years only bought more and more (never dumping or selling). So you are dead wrong. Now as far as Oily is concerned, most here would agree he is a manipulator and very likely pumping and dumping.
I believe the drop in price on Fri PM is easily explained away by the selling of those shares that were VERY recently bought in the 10-15 cent range. This is a very nice double or triple in less than one month. Not too bad in today's market, in fact an almost impossible thing to do. So why not take the very nice gain. Also, those shareholders that just sold may not be followers of IHUB and have no clue as to the upcoming ROO announcement. The world does not revolve around IHUB and in fact MOST ERHC investors probably do not read IHUB. The investor world in general is probably not aware of the impending ROO announcement. We are the lucky ones and get all this great information early from the likes of Mark & SouthernMan, to whom I am forever grateful. I believe there "early" information is accurate and the next week or two will be the proof. I added 35% more shares to my boat load and am very glad I did. I almost feel guilty, like I was trading on inside information, but have no
fears of being "Martha Stewarted" (if there is such a word). Anyone here that did not take advantage of the information will be kicking themselves forever. I guess there may be a few more days to get in at under thirty cents, but I bet by Friday the 13th (a foreboding date), those days will be LONG gone.
I love Troy's market comparison and look at all the stocks I sold recently. All at huge losses, but that money is now in ERHC and I have bet my bottom dollar that all of that money will be recovered and then some. What other stock in today's market can do that? Will ERHC go bankrupt like many other companies out there? Not very likely! Will there be dry holes? Not very likely! Will ERHC be bought out for a huge premium in the next year or two? VERY likely. I, like many others, are very afraid of investing in today's market, but not at all afraid of ERHC. Even though you should never fall in love with a stock, I LOVE ERHC! I just hope I am not heart broken, as my wife will NEVER EVER let me hear the end of it.
The last sentence of that PR is noteworthy:
"Drilling equipment has been ordered and a rig is expected on site this year."
I would hope this drilling equipment will be there in time for Deepwater Pathfinder.
Cowboy, note the "lol"
I finally got a reply to my email to JCG:
"Dear Degenerate Gambler,
Although I am not a gambler like yourself, but I rarely strike out since I hit clean up for my "team".
JC"
Ps: lol!
I think we here all fall into various categories:
1. those that are holding long term (waiting for the amount of oil to be determined in at least the main three JDZ, if not the other JDZ blocks and the EEZ blocks). They have no current plans to sell or buy. They just watch and wait.
2. those that are holding long term (waiting for the amount of oil to be determined in at least the main three JDZ blocks, if not the other JDZ blocks and the EEZ blocks). However, they are buying more when their financial situation allows and when they believe there is a buying opportunity (whatever that means). They have no plans to sell in the near term, only plans to buy more.
3. those that are new investors and looking for an opportunity to buy some shares.
3. those that are looking for an near term point to sell their shares with the possibility of getting back in after the shareprice goes. They feel the shareprice is at a peak and now is the time to get out before the fall begins.
So we have HOLD, BUY OR SELL.
Whatever your situation, you should fall into one of these categories. The only question is when you situation changes, do you change the way you post to suit your needs?
Lately, I have not posted that much, because I have been buying and would rather keep a low profile when I am buying. Although I have believe these few days us IHUBBER have had advanced notice of the impending ROO announcement have been a golden opportunity to pick up shares at a price under 30 cents for the last time. As well as possibly get a double in the next month. I hope everyone has take advantage of this.
My email to JCG:
I have heard of your previous failures to obtain a ROO over the past year. I hope you do not let this one slip through your fingers, because three strikes and your out.
I wonder who all those buyers of the ~1.5mil shares were. I wonder how many here jumped in knowing the Pathfinder will be announced shortly. I know I jumped in for over 10% of those shares early in the morning at an average cost of ~26 cents. I just could not resist. Early this am, I sold all the rest of my stock holdings and now own only hold ERHC and hope for the best. Still have lots of dry powder but going to take a wait and see before I go any further. I think over a million and quarter shares of this baby will make me enough money over the next few years. One can only hope that the oil is there and there is a lot of it!!
DeGen
PS: I tried to short WYNN and LVS (Las Vegas Sands/Venetian) but there were no shares available and it could not be done. My broker said keep trying as availability constantly changes.
jsc, that post was purely hypothetical. IMO, there is no chance in hell, SEO would consider a $2 offer. I was just putting food for thought in Exceo's mind or anyone for that matter IF A TWO DOLLAR OFFER WAS PUT ON THE TABLE on Monday. It is not going to happen, so please do not get all upset if I am willing to take the $2 offer and run. I fully agree the long term outlook over the next few years is $5 to $10 and hope I will be hear to celebrate those prices.
Ps: OpusX, You know as well as I do, we are in this till the oil is found. Maybe will wait for the oil in the EEZ to be found as well. For Addax this is a company maker for the rest of us we will only make millions.
Alwright, if everyone did that, the measure would not pass and we would be back on the bulletin board and IHUB watching and waiting everyday for the next big event in the AS THE OIL DRILL TURNS, soap opera. Tune in on Monday to see if the ROO is announced, or if Exceo has to sleep on the sofa.
Exceo, I have a question for you to discuss with your wife. Let's say a PR comes out on Monday whereby the ERHC shareholders MUST vote with 7 days on a $2 all cash buy out offer to close in 30 days, after (if) the measure is approved. How would your wife vote, I know how my wife would. I say just keep her happy and never have to here about missing opportunities to sell ever again. I would put it in the bank and never ever look at the share price again. I bet your wife would also the offer in a NY minute. Ask her and let me know. (rcparker99@aol.com)
DeGen
Ps: we ain't getting any younger and that social security check is sooooo small!
Pss: Also keep in mind that would be over $2mil in the bank for me.
Addax is the logical "buyer" of ERHC and/or EEL as both smaller companies have oil interests in the JDZ or the GOG. It would make sense for Addax to own or control a bigger share of what they already have a big piece of. The big problem with any merger or buy out is price. What SEO thinks ERHC is worth may differ greatly from what JCG is willing to pay or at least what he feels could be sold to the Addax shareholders/BOD. The ten dollar figure tossed around by Bovell may be considered absurd by JCG. But like any negotiations, it is always possible for the buyer and seller to get together no matter how far apart they start out. JCG knows more about the drilling results from Block 1 then SEO in all likelihood, but SEO is not going in blind. The longer JCG waits (and he appears to like to wait things out) the more SEO will know about how much oil is down there as drilling transpires. Again, the waiting by JCG again appears to hurt him and benefit SEO. I like any share offer over $2.
midtier, our differing opinions on JCG are going to come to a head very shortly. JCG pissed away 6-12 months of time that could have been used to "prove up" the JDZ by drilling. How much is six months sooner oil worth? versus the savings on the ROO? Let see, JCG possibly saved millions but probably loss many, many more millions by not drilling. You make the call. But you already know, because you know everything about the oil industry and then some.
I greatly anticipate the actual news release about the ROO from ADDAX. Certainly just prior to ADDAX's cc on Wednesday would be ideal, but I would guess Monday or Tuesday is very likely as well. Anyone selling shares now must not be keeping up with what is going on, the news of the ROO is just around the corner. This time the "information" is coming from RIG NEWS a fairly reliable source. Plus our own two IHUBBER insiders here with their own little birdies chirping in their ears. But still one must worry about JCG track record of screwing up rig deals. I will say I do NOT think he will let this one fall through his fingers as he would look very bad to his investors for his continued failure to produce a ROO for his "company maker".
Tapco, I think you should re-read Peter's latest PR,
"On the exploration front, I can report that progress is being made in the effort to secure a deepwater drill ship – the so-called rig of opportunity. Our technical partners will take the lead in announcing any breakthroughs but we are pleased to be seeing action and are confident that exploration will commence in the coming months in at least one JDZ Block in which ERHC has interests.
Our technical partners Addax Petroleum and Sinopec Corp. have also contracted the deepwater drill ship Aban Abraham. It has been frustrating to endure the several postponements on the ship’s availability, which has prompted our partners to seek other solutions to prevent further delay. We expect that the Aban Abraham will be available before the end of the year."
It appears from the way this is worded, the ROO and the AA are not one in the same. Each rig is addressed in a different paragraph and it certain appears from what Peter says, they are two different rigs.
JMHO, but I bet we see $50 oil before we see under $40 oil. In fact, IMO, oil will never go below $40 ever again. Even though Oily predicted $27 oil, he is way off in this case.
Maybe Krombacher finally started his buying. Hopefully he got in when the price was in the teens but he does procrastinate and probably is still waiting to buy.
Fishdog, my prediction of reaching the twenties the morning was also spot on. Right now the bid ask is 19.5 / 20.5 but the nest ask is 24! That is NIKE a very big MM. Hopefully we will blow throw the 20.5 very soon.
Edit: Right after I wrote this the price DID hit 24, I hope it holds
As far as the long awaited "reserve report". I am not sure if this is disappointment or a revelation. I am not sure how much lower this report shows the amount of oil compared to the old numbers Peter was expounding about at the conferences. It is definitely lower, but the old number was probably considered by most a very high ballpark estimate. Now we have something MUCH more concrete that can be used in the 10K reports and actually put on the books. The market will decide how much this will reflect in the share price, but IMO I think we will start going north through the twenties and thirties over the next several months (even without a ROO announcement). If we get a ROO I would guess the share price would go up ~25% right after the announcement. I would also guess the share price will gap up into the twenties tomorrow morning. But I have been mostly wrong in my predictions before, so DO NOT BANK ON IT!
First on the ROO, although there have been MANY false alarms is the past, JCG had previously announced he would be going back "to the table" in February to see if the rig owners would "accept" his low ball offer(s). Well, everything I have read indicates the rig owners are not dropping their price dramatically and JCG may realize this by now. JCG may also realize the AA will not meet the time deadline for the JDZ. Maybe JCG finally realizes he does not hold the best hand and needs to buy more chips to get back in the game. Time is not on his side and he must realize that. Is risking the enforcement of the JDZ penalty clause worth the risk of saving some money by waiting out the rig owners? I think not, and I think JCG has realized that and has begun negotiations on a ROO and Peter heard this through the grape vine. However, we all know how good JCG is at letting a deal fall through. He has a proven track record of letting ROOs fall through and until he actually completes a ROO deal, I have my doubts. Like Strass, I will believe it, when I see it announced in a PR by Addax. Until then I continue to wait and hope JCG gets the process going and does not try to play hardball (or play poker without a large enough stake).
Printmail,
The post you wrote (the one I am now replying to) stated the following:
"You do the Math....
The SEC filings say ERHE is still being investigated
KBR was formally charged with FCPA violation in 2009 for an investigation that started in 2003 regarding bribes that happened in the early 1990s'
However > I suggest we let the lawyers and the government agencies handle the SOL because YOU for sure do NOT know the 100% correct answer , and I do not either, however I will say I DO have some case precedence that to me, IMO says , the SOL is not a concern for the govt investigation into ERHC Energy at this time."
You DO NOT have case precedence that you indicate you have. What you have is faulty logic as exposed in my post. For you to say "the SOL is not a concern for the govt investigation" is just simply WRONG. There is a 5 year limit (the SOL) the the government MUST conform with in any possible charges they may bring against ERHC. And that is no only the law, but a fact as well. Do you comprehend this yet?
Now let's consider the government's possible bribery case against ERHC. What bribes occurred within the 5 year SOL? The bribe would have to have occurred on or after Feb 20, 2004. What could have that possible have been? Why would ERHC be paying bribes AFTER receiving the JDZ awards? That makes no sense. Therefore, any bribes that may have occurred, are tolled by the SOL and not admissible in court and can not be used by government to charge ERHC with bribery.
It should be noted that the plead agreement with KBR was reached just prior to the SOL tolling. I would guess that the government told KBR that they would be filing charges very soon unless a plead agreement could be reached. KBR thought they could cut their losses by a plea agreement in lieu of a costly trial where they would probably lose anyway.
Printmail, you need some "legal" education. The case against KBR was "settled" (KBR pleaded guilty) prior to going to court and having any evidence presented and accepted by the court. What this means is that the government can report that the bribes occurred in 1994 because KBR "admitted" to those accusations by pleading guilty. It DOES NOT MEAN that the government could have used those 1994 bribes in court. That "fact" was never at issue. It did not matter to KBR that the SOL had tolled on those 1994 bribes, because KBR continued to 2004, still within the 5 year period when the SOL had NOT yet tolled and could be used in court. Only one bribe had to occur within the 5 year period for KBR to be guilty). You see even though the articles indicates there were bribes in 1994, that is no proof that these bribes were valid evidence. There is NOTHING said in the article that would indicate that bribes committed prior to the 5 year SOL could actual be used to convict KBR. You see there is no reason for KBR to dispute those bribes, since they knew they were guilty of some of the bribery charges, there was no reason to get picky with the government and contest those that already had tolled. Doing so would only aggravate the the government and waste time.
Therefore, you entire premise that the government CAN use bribes that occur outside of the 5 year SOL is not only incorrect, but your "evidence" that you base this on does not "prove up" what you are stating. In fact it is just plain WRONG and I would appreciate it if you stop bringing it up. If you do, I will just have to repost this information.
DeGen
Attorney at Law, Retired
Umbra, I like you dearly and apreciate your input here, but I am with Strass on this point. JCG deserves all (and then some) the criticism we hand out. IMO, he has made bad decisions and needs to be called on the carpet for them. The fact that he is in charge, let's him get away with it. Strass and I continue to point out he has been wrong in his decision to wait, wait and wait some more for a ROO trying to get a better deal. Soon the clock will run out and JCG will be desperate and the rig owners should be able to figure that out.