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America envy this early in the morning? Ok ;>)
I agree Red, thanks
so Red, do you still hold fast to $3.67, or have you upped your estimate? Just curiopus. I know its a swag. ;>)
great Plat, feed my poor people or get out! What a country! LOL!
I don't think so Art. I don't think the US gives ERHE or W/Africa that much credit for our nations economic or financial security. Sure we need the oil, but we won't collapse from SNP being in a block. ;>)
OT: Sangamond, you ought to hear the one's we use in Texas! LOL!
kewel mark, thank you sir
I am long (5yrs or more from PSC sig date) on about 75% of my holdings. The other 25% I need to cash out when we get into the low dollars to git me sum stuff ;>)
The head of OPEC says 3/14
“The contract will be signed on March 14, 2006 and both parties have agreed to this and I do not see any reason we cannot proceed with the contract as it is.” Said Daukuro.
from saba on RB:
Failed JDZ Pack: Nigeria withdraws demand for apology.
BY Sunny Ofili
DATE : Thursday, 02 March 2006
The Nigerian government has withdrawn a demand that the government of Sao Tome and Principe “tender an unreserved apology” for a last-minute refusal to sign the Production Sharing Contract, PSC, between the Joint Development Authority (JDA) and Addax on Bloc 4 in the Joint Development Zone (JDZ) belonging to the two countries.
Nigeria’s Minister of state for Petroleum Resources and current OPEC president, Edmund Daukuro, made the government’s position known yesterday in Washington, DC at a forum organized by The Leon H. Sullivan Foundation to discuss Africa and International energy security.
While fielding questions from The Times Of Nigeria, Daukuro said that he might have been misquoted by last week’s reports in the media where he was quoted to have demanded an apology from Sao Tome for the failure to sign the document. “I don’t think I used the word apology. It was a misunderstanding.” He said.
“The matter has been resolved. I have been assured that it was a communications problem and both sides have agreed to a new date to sign the contract.”
“The contract will be signed on March 14, 2006 and both parties have agreed to this and I do not see any reason we cannot proceed with the contract as it is.” Said Daukuro.
Daukuro, who is on his first official visit to Washington after assuming the presidency of the petroleum cartel, OPEC, blamed the on-going crisis in Niger Delta on restless youths whom he said are impatient.
“Niger Delta problem is nothing new. The problem is caused by youths who are impatient. Guns will not do it. We want to encourage dialogue.” He said.
Daukuro called on the international community to assist oil-producing communities in securing the vast oil resources in order to guarantee supply. “The resource is huge but so also is the challenge.”
He predicted, “Gas will rival or overtake oil very soon” and that Nigeria is well positioned to take a lead in the gas market.
Daukoru urged oil-producing countries to be transparent in their operations by opening up the process to independent audit.
whooaa! Thanks Meridian
thanks mrogop, thank God for hobbies! LOL!
Spec, I hadn't read every message posted here today, but I surmise that most here are thinking 3/14 is in jeapordy because of this news piece from Lusa? I don't think this article casts any doubt we move forward as planned.
Beautiful weather this weekend in south east Tejas!
Thanks HP, but someone needs to get off their arse it seems,,
"Citing a National Petroleum Agency (ANP) communique issued late Saturday, it says STP has yet to receive a copy of the altered B-4 JOA it demanded to see before signing the respective PSC."
Red, with all the changes and now several SP valuations coming about from good posters both on RB and IH, where are you on the now years old $3.67 SP prediction you used to make over the last few years? Are you sticking to that or have you upped it a bit? Just curious, thanks
hey Leo, that wasn't my work, that was from Bullwriter on RB. He puts it out almost daily.
well Spec read it below and make sure my cold medz haven't decieved me,,,
Today (3/3) SWAG Share Price.
Assume ERHC gets a “2/1” in each block for full carry to first oil. (2/1=ERHC gets half the partner’s interest.)
ERHC ends up with around 21 2/3% of Block 2, 6 2/3% of Block 3, 17 2/3% of block 4 and 5% of blocks 5/6. Plus cash in blocks 2 and 4.
(Block 4 looks like ERHC gets $16 million (US) + full carry to first oil. Assume $25 million for block 2.) Assume a cost to first oil of $500 million.
Value of carry is in each block is: ERHC % interest x $500 million.
The Chinese just paid $4.60 bbl in the nearby Akpo field for proven plus probable reserves. Rumor is that Chevron's Block 1 find is an "elephant" with more than 1B bbls+ in ERHC controlled Block 2 so value block 2 similar to Akpo. The remainder of ERHC's blocks are unproven so value at $2 per bbl.
Scenario 1: 1B bbls in each of blocks 2, 3 and 4 with 0.5B bbls in each of blocks 5 and 6.
Share price = $2.64 = $1.59 for block 2 + $0.23 for block 3 + $0.64 for block 4 + $.09 for block 5 and block 6.
Scenario 2: 3B bbls in each of blocks 2 and 4, 1B bbls in block 3 with 0.5B bbls in each of blocks 5 and 6.
Share price = $6.44 = $4.39 for block 2 + $0.23 for block 3 + $1.64 for block 4 + $.09 for block 5 and block 6.
If all oil in Scenario is proven and valued at $10 bbl then the share price is $18.65.
IMHO, the current share price reflects scenario 1 but the price is discounted until PSC’s are signed. Once PSC’s are signed for blocks 2 and 4 then the price may quickly rise over $5.
Yesterday (3/2) SWAG Near Term Fair Share Price: $6+ per share.
The Chinese just paid $4.60 bbl in the nearby Akpo field for proven plus probable reserves. Rumor is that Chevron's Block 1 find is an "elephant" with more than 1B bbls+ in ERHC contolled Block 2. 65% of 1B is .65B bbls x $4.60 = $4.21 per share. A deal similar to Addax would leave ERHC with 32% and partner 33% of block 2. That suggests a partner, like Sinopec or Chevron, should be willing to pay around $2.10 per share in cash n carry for half of the 65% stake in block 2.
The remainder of ERHC's blocks are unproven. Assuming an additional 1B bbls each in blocks 2, 3 and 4, and, 250 mil bbls each in blocks 5 and 6 then ERHC has another 3.5B bbls in unproven which will be valued at less than $4.60 per bbl. Using $2 per bbl for ERHC's unproven interests in the JDZ and you get another $2.43 in share price. So a current share price for ERHC would be $4.21 + $2.43 = $6.64. If all the unproven became probable and valued at $4.60 then the share price would be over $10. If all reserves are proven, valued at $9 per bbl, then the share price would be around $20. If you add in STPEEZ reserves, (assuming 2B bbls to ERHC), plus natural gas then it's possible that several years down the road ERHC could have a share price over $40.
I was going back over Bullwriters DD post on RB he puts out almost daily, and I am greatful he does. BUT, with the lower interest across all of our blocks, Bulls SWAG price from yesterday and days previous was around $6, and now, today it's a little over $2. Shiite.
snow, did you forget the scraps we initially recieved years ago? Heck dude, quit yer bitchun, we're fine
What in the wide wide world of sports is going on here?!?!
LOL!
Been outside most of today. Other than BM giving us some rehash, did we get some facts today?
Kerrylass, thanks for the article - got a link?
BB, good to see BP wanting get involved.
Yes back in town once again. I have been working as an interim CIO for a client in Atlanta every week since last Halloween. They just hired there full time CIO, so I should be done there soon.
Being landlocked like that freaks me out! LOL!
Transocean to build drillship for Chevron
Houston Business Journal - 3:49 PM CST Wednesday
Chevron Corp. has awarded Transocean Inc. a contract to lead the construction of a new deepwater drillship.
Houston-based Transocean (NYSE: RIG) and Chevron have also signed contract extensions for two existing Chevron (NYSE: CVX) drillships.
Combined, the three deals could bring $1.7 billion in revenue to the Houston company.
cool, thanks. SO I guess further confirmation that we sign 3/14. Hope we can quit floundering around till then. I'd rather see a penny or two increase daily
hey dudes, just landed back in Houston
was there a BM? Other news? Noticed a nice .045 cent gain today!
but outside of the 3/14 signing, we may not get an announcement. We certainly do not know for sure CVX will say anything before then, do we?
doesn't say where Texsun but
you can read teh article in the Houston Chronicle
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/energy/3694965.html
bad dog, I have a 401k with my firm
I also have ROTH's, Coverdale IRA's, and a rolloever IRA with etrade
well heck, all my buy orders filled at .77. I'm glad I got back in via my IRA's but I contributed too much.
thanks strass. doing that now. jammun to etrade hold music
how can I? simply by mistake! LOL!
I'mo on the phone with etrade right now. You think the system would not let you contribute more than the law allows
arrghh! ;>)
crap, I'm not over 50! I transfered too much. It should have been 4k, not 4500
corrections
sold at .785 and have buy orders in at .77
I sold a little over $30,000 worth of shares from my brokerage (cash) account. Then I trasnferred for 2005 & 6 into the following"
Wife Roth: 9000
My Roth: 9000
Roll Over IRA: 9000
Coverdale IRA Son1: 2000
Coverdale IRA Son2: 2000
No I sold at .785, and placed orders at .77 for all the above and ain't got a bite. Damn.
Selling sure makes me nervous! But I am just trying to get into a better position tax-wise come the days when we are $20 SP
I still have over 150k shares in my brokerage
so Maestro, if I sell 100k shares today, take my 25% gain, pay long term cap gains on it,stick the cash back into my Roth's, buy the stock back, I should be ok from a net-net perspective? I just don't want to wind up with less having not sold.
I already asked an accountant. You cannot transfer from a non-retirement account into a retirement account and and suffer no tax conequences. You would have to seel out of your regular cash account, then place it in your IRA, then buy stock. Sux, but thats what I'm told.
OT> Mrogop, I read your post last night where think you were predicting a pretty poor US stock market for the next few years? If that is correct, could you provide further ballast to support this view? thanks
DQ, in your opinion, do you think it wise to sell my +100% long gainers (blocks) that are in my cash account and repurchase them in my IRA's? I feel like doing nothing for a few years, selling a good bit then, then moving it over to my IRA's. Thoughts?
OT> Oilman, I apologize for firing off on you yesterday over on the RB. Don't have any elaborate excuse other than I get riled up real quick when folks start bad mouthing the USA.
Moving forward. ;>)
Man wouldn't it be great?! Maybe I should get 120 acres instead? ;>)