Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Good job!
Bud makes a very valid point. BP will pay substantially more for assurance that a drug is going to work, hence guaranteed revenue. I agree that it will be interim data that will trigger Gilead to move. IMHO it will be the P3 Mono data. Adjunct data will be stellar paving the way for the prize they are after. Nader has told me in past conversations that BP is not going to get overly excited about Adjunct it's Mono as we all know that is the game changer that will disrupt SOC.
From the past data it would seem that even with a 50% success rate in suppressing viral load under the 400 copies bar for 6-12 months would be enough. I think the major data to be gleaned from interim P3 Mono trial is:
1- what will be the impact of twice weekly dosing and
2- can they isolate and identify the common thread as to why Pro-140 is not effective in some patients with the CCR5 trophic if in fact the increased dosing is not effective. If it is effective well then we can absolutely stick a fork in it.
Boom, that is both a very nice comment and an honor all in one. With your recent volatility relating to your posts I suspected you were a bit younger than I- now I know, gotcha by 20.
I have learned much about my own behavior, triggers, emotional stability, and humility in my 50's. May I recommend a short read that will make you a better husband, father, and person that is much more comfortable in your own skin? "The Untethered Soul" by Michael A. Singer. Wish I would have read this book when I was in my 20's.
Your opinions and posts are a benefit to this board - please keep them coming. Regardless of the fear in your posts at times I always had a good feeling about your character. My feelings have been confirmed - Absolute Humility is the ultimate goal.
Boom, it is a good thing to connect with the company and more here on the board should reach out for their own sanity- also the longer you can stay on the phone and intuitively ask questions the better chance you have of learning something new. Mike M is a bit dry but live bodies give us reassurance that people are working and that they are actually more concerned than we are as to the outcome.
As Mike told me years ago when the company was quiet for an extensive period of time and my mind was overthinking the situation. He said; "It's not like the drug is in a ditch" and most do sooner or later as an OTC Biotech. There job is to keep the drug out of the ditch. The key here is the data is positive and moving forward and we are building on that foundation towards a BLA. Approval is all that matters and so far we are on solid ground to achieve that. If Pro-140 was close to the ditch I'd be selling-that is Pears theme in his posts, that Pro-140 is dangerously close to the ditch- that is clearly not the case here.
As for BTD it could very well be they are working out some details that the FDA has requested. Tracie mentioned the complexity of the of the FDA and how time consuming and detailed the clinical process is. That is pure speculation but it seems to be a theme as Mike M mentioned the FDA also.
Goldenisla,
Your question on Warrants is a good one to understand. As stated many here own Warrants that have a .75 cost to convert. So they are in the money at a SP above .75. It takes 7-10 days to covert a Warrant to a non restricted share that can be sold. The .75 goes into the company's coffers and that is a good thing. The real pressure on the SP above .75 is not actually the Warrant but the shares that were purchased at .75 to obtain the Warrant rights. Those are the shares that are being unloaded in favor of keeping the risk free Warrants. So with a slow run up on SP in the mid 70's and 80's we will see some of that selling pressure. Major catalysts that blow by those levels into the $1.50 range may change that strategy as to perceived risk and further upside and many that were selling MAY adjust their strategy. Nothing is for sure but those are some of the scenarios.
Cytodyn management does not beat by the drum of the short term desires of Ihub followers or posters. They have bigger fish to fry. They also have more shares at stake than most on this board and lack of insider buying has been overblown in terms of their confidence and commitment to Pro-140 crossing the finish line.
Management is working much more diligently than is understood or perceived. Did they pay Anthony C. 200k per year and dangle 1 million warrants at .76 for him to show up at the office for a cameo once a week??? I think not-he's cutting a deal contingent on clinical trials meeting end points. He isn't concerned with the current SP that is below his .76 base. The current SP is meaningless in the big picture. The fact is silence is the greatest weapon when negotiating but at the same time has a way of creating fear that is nonexistent. Both fear and greed can kill a sound investment. This is nothing short of a very exciting time for Pro-140.
JPG, I think we see it the same way. This is tough on the patience but that is what is required. My eyes are wide open as to the data. That is the major factor for me staying long. So far so good. I think these guys know they've got a really desirable bone and there not going to give it up without a fair trade. Anthony C gives me confidence in there pathway. Until news says otherwise I'm in for the end game.
I spoke with Tracie Melchior at Cytodyn this morning. She is a soft spoken pleasant woman that is in the know but obviously tight lipped because she would like to keep her job and stay out of jail.
This is what she could tell me. The next conference call is tentatively scheduled for the third week in April. The addition of Anthony C has been a big plus and he is working around the clock...on what she would not tell me. I think we all have a short list of what that should be. Nader and Anthony C understand and want what everyone here on this board understands and wants and a whole lot more. The FDA is a complex animal and they are not in control - the FDA is, and Anthony C's job is utilize his experience and play the game precisely.
I could speculate but that is not really of value because it is speculation based on limited information. But I can't help myself so take it for what it's worth.
- I'm not sitting on pins and needles waiting for a PR that is going to push the SP to the moon tomorrow. I think we still have a ways to go.
- Anthoy C is getting down to business and is laser focused on seeing Pro-140 through to FDA Approval and an eventual buyout. He is the new Sheriff in town.
- Cytodyn knows what they have in Pro-140 and are not worried about the data. They do understand the importance of screening and enrolling the right patients vs. speed of enrollment which could potentially sink Pro-140.
-The tipping point for BP will be interim data on the P3 Mono Trial.
- If you believe in the science quit speculating as to the inefficiencies of management. This isn't Anthony C's first rodeo. If you think you know more and have a better way you are wrong because your nothing more than a Monday morning Quarterback.
As many wise posters have repeatedly posted - R-E-L-A-X. This is going to reward clear thinkers and the company will be sold at value that will dwarf any future diluting that is deemed necessary.
Time to hit the golf course and enjoy life. The future is bright and Life is good!
Thank you MJbiotech. I participated in that Raise and one of the key reasons was Jordan throwing down $1 million. That was his $.
Warrant holders would not be notified. An uplist does require the issuing of a new cusip and the shorts are forced to cover. I have seen that happen. It would make for quite a scramble.
If this scenario were to happen as Chump is suggesting it would change everything for us longs. Of course it will take a sweep on simultaneous catalysts to move the SP to over $2. With the silence it is a distinct possibility. IMO to realistically expect a buyout above $1 Billion an uplist would have to happen.
It's a nice thought - hopefully more. I bet the company reads all of this speculation and they probably chuckle out loud or bite their lip depending on the reality.
The waiting game. How long will the company remain silent?
As Lawman said the FDA may well be waiting on P3 Adjunct PE before granting BTD. Makes perfect sense. I think that is where we are. Million $ question is where are we in terms of completing enrollment? Perhaps we are right on the cusp and the company is waiting to complete before communicating with shareholders. Still could be golden quarter although time is running out.
Couldn't agree more Bulldog. I don't wish bad on anyone.
Well said gestalt. All have been clear here this morning that Pro-140 has the science and it will be revealed in the upcoming data. I have never been this anxious in my four years. I guess I know how much is riding on these upcoming events.
Misiu,
Thank you for your insight. You are a valuable asset to this community.
Can you address the complication with the profile and requirements for the 30 patients needed to complete the P3 Adjunct Trial. I find it interesting that in early January Nader announced that 7 patients had completed the P3 Adjunct and were going on the extension study. That would seem to be really good news. I mean that means that they had completed the entire study before enrollment was complete. You are correct as it seems clear that Pro-140 meets all of the criteria for BTD.
What I'm asking is for you to add some clarity as to the lag time to complete enrollment and what your thoughts are if we are given another delay to complete enrollment. I ask this because it is quite possible that the $ amount of the last raise was determined by time needed to complete Adjunct P3 PE which may be pushed back.
In the future I would hope that no poster cause you to go silent. You are needed Misiu.
My gut agrees with D, stay the course. If you sell here and have been long for a long time your going to need more than blood pressure meds when this plays out.
I also believe as Lawman says FDA may be holding out for P3 Adjunct data before ruling on BTD.
The plot thickens as Nader and company are quiet as a mouse.
Volume is down because the big money is sticking to their game plan.
A very pivotal place in time for Pro-140 and our investment.
Lots of possible outcomes to be revealed in the near term.
This is a test of patience....that I believe will be highly rewarded.
Tick Tock, Tick Tock, Tick Tock. The Waiting Game. It's as quiet as can be.
Good point JPG77, I agree that is where they will see a nice chunk of cash.
Because the warrants range from .65 to 1.35 with the majority priced at .75 one could assume that very few have been converted up to this point. My math would conclude there are approximately 50 million outstanding warrants. The question is at what SP would warrant holders exercise. I think we would see some serious movement when the SP hits $2. It would seem there has to be some cushion because it takes a week or two to complete the process so the risk or exposure is the SP dropping significantly in that window. That's the thing about a buy out it would cause all warrants to be exercised because the profit would be guaranteed.
Grip,I think they could raise another 50-100 million. P3 Adjunct would have to be strong along with BTD acceptance. If that happens the SP would be much higher and raising $'s would be a different story than at this moment. That is why the raises are small - just enough to get to the news.
Do I want to wait another year- NO, but I will if the return appears to be significantly greater than what we can get in the next couple of months. It is unknown if positive BTD and P3 Adjunct PE news will trigger a buyout. Many here seem to think it will. I think it may take more, such as strong interim data on the P3 Mono Trial because that is what BP is really interested in- a safe and efficacious single agent treatment.
To the contrary it could be argued that negotiations are going on right now. The biggest clue is how quiet and tight lipped the company is and news appears to be right around the corner. So at this point in time we are left to speculate because we don't have any new information. Bottom line is nobody knows other than those that can't say a word. Tick Tock, Tick Tock, Tick Tock.
Sorry to reply so late BH. You are one of my favorite posters and I think we are on the same page. Send the jet and I'll be packed and prepared for one helluva party! Just pray this comes to fruition.
When we are bought out I'm going to Vegas regardless to celebrate the culmination of a 3-4 year investment. I have purchased on the open market, participated in three Paulson raises, and I have kept every share and warrants to boot - This will be a moment of reflection and pure bliss. All of this would be greatly enhanced if spent with those that have been down the same road and stayed the course.
I pray this all comes to fruition as it is bad luck to count your chicken's before they hatch. We have a ways to go IMHO but I am ready to wake up one morning and check my cell phone and see a number that makes me slap myself to make sure I'm seeing correctly.
Indeed Wallstreet...have to meet you in person. Can't speak for Shane but he would seem to be the biggest winner.
Chump- that would be music to my ears. Hope your right so we can get to Vegas sooner than later.
I have been a Nader guy but my patience is wearing thin. All about results and yes SP at all time lows.
The problem is the Paulson raises that put so much selling pressure on the stock. I mean the last Paulson raise put 5.6 million shares into play on the sell side with no holding period. That is going to sink the SP no matter what Nader does. His only (or Anthony C's if he is indeed the man now) control is to complete P3 Adjunct and deliver positive data and get BTD. That might prevent another Paulson raise in three months or at least raise the offering to a fair value.
Is the storm about to lift in favor of sunny skies- we are about to find out. I hope the Shiek comment by Shane holds water.
$800 million sale fully diluted with warrants would be closer to $3.50-$4.00 share. My biggest concern is that Nader could disappoint with another delay with enrollment. He said "as early as Q1 for PE P3 Adjunct". That's not a guarantee.
We are in it together. The SP sucks but that hasn't changed the facts up to this point. Im in it to win it.
Shane,
You and your miss's may be plus $1,000,000 this coming week.
All requests for breakthrough therapy designation will be reviewed within 60 days of receipt, and FDA will either grant or deny the request.
Nader filed on Jan. 11. Question is what date did FDA receive the filing? Receipt starts the clock.
We need to go 2 for 2. FDA thumbs up on BTD and knockout P3 Adjunct PE. PR both pre-market on the same day would be pure bliss. This is possible but maybe asking too much for the same day. You know Nader and Anthony C woukd make this happen if within there reach. That would produce the golden quarter.
I believe the two events may be linked. Can you imagine what the FDA would look like if they granted BTD prior to completion of P3 Adjunct PE and then the trial fell flat a week or two later. Is the FDA wanting that data before making their decision? Just a thought, maybe too much thinking while we are playing the waiting game.
If management got the news from FDA on BTD previous to today meaning Thursday or earlier they would have released a PR today- pre market if positive and after market if negative. With no PR today the percentages say they have not received an answer from the FDA. As we all know 60 days would be tomorrow- a Saturday. Enjoy the weekend all.
Thanks for clarifying. Is it closed now...did you participate?
Paulson raises require investors to hold shares for 6 months before they can sell.
I am sorry to hear that Ahab. Not sure what that is all about as I welcome your posts. Unbiased professional opinions are needed.
Trding, I follow your logic. We are speculating so nothing is for sure. Fingers crossed...this is important for many reasons. Not a deal breaker as I have said but certainly a longer path.
By my calculations it is quite possible that we may get a PR on BTD tomorrow. Pre market PR would mean granted BTD. After market PR would be a thumbs down. I've seen BTD decision PR'ed both ways right at the 60 day mark. Just a hunch. Would be nice to see a Pre Market PR for Pears well being.
Z great to have you on board. Very good posts with insightful info.
For all that continue to question as to why It has taken too long to enroll 30 patients in the P3 Adjunct, do yourself a favor and READ Z's post. This is why Nader negotiated vehemently with the FDA to reduce patients from 300 to 150 to 30. Candidates that fit the profile are not easy to find. Regarding the P3 Mono Trial Nader has repeatedly stated "will be a much faster enrollment process". Nader and his team are competent at rolling out and implementing the shortest pathway to approval--however it is not as simple as one might think. Keep the posts coming Z.
About time Misiu....no more disappearing please:)
Yes. If we go past 60 days on BTD decision that is less than ideal. Logic says BTD will be granted because Pro-140 meets the criteria and purpose for BTD--however the FDA always makes me nervous, politics, power plays, BP, corruption, technicalities, all the unknown factors. It will not break Pro-140 if not granted but it will change the timeline and perception of the value of Pro-140. It is possible that the FDA may wait on P3's Adjunct PE data before making decision because it is hopefully so close. I'm cautiously optimistic.
This is as quiet as it gets... not a peep from the company. Guarded...and it all makes sense. Two huge milestones on the immediate horizon- BTD and P3 Adjunct PE, with the possibility of a third- update on P3 Mono enrollment. If the company knows this to be the status and runs the table, then Yes, Anthony may very well be in discussions.
Don't want to get ahead of myself but there may finally be enough data announced shortly to create the tipping point we as longs have been waiting for. All we can do is read the tea leaves.
Anything is possible as it is speculation from both perspectives. All I am saying is that is the logic...it doesn't mean that it will play out that way. I do believe that is what Nader is thinking right now.
Your condescending remarks say a lot about your character Kobe. I've read your posts so this type of reply is no surprise.
Have you ever had a face to face with Nader? Do you know him at all? His investment is his time and mind being all in- he's not a wealthy man and he has 1.4 million shares last I checked. Just because he didn't purchase them doesn't mean he doesn't have his life invested.
You obviously are not a supporter and you are entitled to your opinion. Your arrogance is another topic.
Glad you are enjoying the book. The insight into our SELF is amazingly impactful to a less stressful and more grounded life.
You pretty much nailed it with your post - don't think it will get deleted.
If the dragging SP was an indication of the reality of the value of Pro-140 I would be both shocked and disappointed. I see the SP as totally disconnected from the value of what we have even if we are not overly successful with Mono. There have been some that are of the opinion that strong Adjunct results will not be that meaningful as Pro-140 would just be another option as part of the HART cocktail. I disagree because of the safety, nearly zero side effects, and efficacy. We have at the very minimum a $3 SP. That's a nice profit although not what I am hoping for. So Yes, successful P3 Mono Trial is the major play and we all know that is what it will take for $10 per share pay day. Would the CYDY take $3 per share after announcing positive P3 Adjunt in the next weeks or months? I think that may very well be a real situation in the very near term and management is having to seriously consider what they will do with an offer in that range.
It's a helluva grind when the SP gets hammered by these raises- however in the end all those shares that are being dumped in favor of just holding warrants is going to come back to haunt a lot of people that took the safe way. The data is impressive to say the least, it just needs more validation...and that is where we are.
Have a great weekend...the book goes fast. I am on my second time through.