I can't reply to private messages. I only have the basic membership Sorry.
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Actually those are unrisked, not risked for the drilling targets.
with the price of oil threatening to push below $84 as I wirte this, we just might see those $3's
Here's to hoping we can hold the line . . .
From Small Cap Network
Small cap oil-drilling stock Hyperdynamics Corporation hasn't gone anywhere (net) since April, but don't be fooled - a storm is brewing that should hurl it out of this range and into some significant movement. But which direction will HDY go? That's still not super clear, but the odds say it's a bullish move looming.
As the nearby chart shows, there are a couple of support line HDY is dancing with; the lower one (orange) is at $3.16, and the upper one (blue) is at $4.04. At the same time, it's dealing with a ceiling (green) at $4.60. What's so interesting is that Hyperdynamics Corporation has been dealing with them for so long. It's something like a slingshot, where the longer you pull it back, the stronger the release.... and in this case, with a recent bullish cross of the moving averages (after a tight consolidation of those moving averages), the scale is tipped in favor of bullish break. Just wait for it to actually happen (above $4.60).
http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/Slowly-But-Surely-GU-HDY-and-BMTI-Chipping-Away/s/via/10/article/view/p/mid/1/id/55/
It looks like somebody is buying HDY with a little sense of urgency
t $4.5075 6,183 NDD 16:47:41
t $4.5100 12,000 NDD 16:31:24
t $4.5080 52,454 NDD 16:27:15
t $4.5100 19,877 NDD 16:24:25
t $4.5100 1,967 NDD 16:24:00
6 $4.5100 593,463 NYE 16:03:05
Do I detect a little bit of urgency to cover setting in? Almost a quarter of the day's volume at the close. Another 81K + since then. I wonder if someone was anticipating covering closer to $4 only it didn't happen with options expiration this time around.
I'm not surprised the tug-o-war between $5 puts and $4 calls was a stalemate. It will be interesting to see what monday brings now that we're out of the grips of max pain and on to the final leg of the Jasper Explorer journey to Guinea :)
HDY October max pain should be interesting to watch.
Is it being broadcast? Maybe we can find an internet link and watch. That would be awesome!
Could it be that JJ @ LL is nothing but a shill for the HDY shorts who are now desperately trying to unload their 28M shorted shares without driving up the price? I see they've managed to drop the number of shares out on loan about 5% the past 2 weeks. At that rate they'll still be trying to unload about 20M shorts when the results of the 2nd well are known, let alone the 1st. Jackass Joker @ Legacy Losers isn't going to laughing much longer.
Jackass Joker @ Legacy doesn't care that HDY has a drilling contract with AGR and a drill ship 15 days from being on location, never mind that they have aquired 2D and 3D surveys, all things HDY did not do under old management. He's too busy being a Jackass Joker to do any due diligence.
For those who haven't heard it, here's the link to the HDY presentation given yesterday @ the Rodman & Renshaw Conference
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/rrshq20/hdy
Link to the transcript of the HDY conference call
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/HDY/1396072933x0x498770/06eeb0b0-34c7-4011-8f6d-f1b8c39b6a6e/HDY%20Update%20Transcript%202011-09-07%20final.pdf
They are very low to respond to the change of averaged value of analyst ratings, which is what they base that number on. The average is now $9.50
Rodman and Renshaw $8
Howard Weil $11
http://classic.cnbc.com/id/44073846
Jasper Explorer Update - location now just south of Reunion Island off the coast of Madigascar
http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?mmsi=564347000¢erx=55.27569¢ery=-22.00199&zoom=10&type_color=9
From here it's only a SHORT haul to Cape Town :D
Could be, I just took the probability NSAI gave for each prospect and did a quick probability calc. They didn't break it down for each individual target. There's been some debate in IV whether the numbers they give can be (re)interpreted on the basis of each target rather than each prospect.
Rollover 1: .21
Rollover 4: .21
Rollover 1-4: .15
(btw I did the calc a while ago during a earlier discussion on this, and I posted it from memory. I think my memory failed me in retrospect, and that the number was actually somewhere in the low 40 percentile)
Of course a probability calc doesn't figure in any intangibles. Such as the conservative nature of NSAI for starters. I believe the odds of success are higher than what a probability calc can produce. The point of my post was to reflect the other side of the equation, so to speak. The thinking of the shorts, as opposed to the thinking of the longs. It's also a messy calc because there is clearly some relation between success with the 1st well and how that impacts the 2nd, but I have no clue how you would begin to factor that in.
also for bid/ask
http://www.level2stockquotes.com/level-ii-quotes.html
scroll down below the chart. Be cautioned that it's only capturing a portion of the level 2 data.
XOP now 4.6% and climbing. HDY could break through this sell-off yet and close up strong.
With XOP up 4.38%, at some point the sellers have to realize they're giving HDY away @ $4.40
If it does, I hope I can time it. Something like $30 pulling back to $15 would have me dancing in the street :D
So, what's holding the price down today? XOP is up 4.4% and of late we've been exceeding XOP on the up side.
That's how I'm beginning to think it will play out as well.
The other factor is the traders who fuel that volitility. They buy (and possibily cover) into the bottoms and sell (and possibly short) into the peaks. I have no idea how many shares they have in play, but I doubt it's insignificant. Any of them who have been playing this for any period of time may well have withdrawn their original cash investment by now are are working with turning profits into greater gains.
Agreed, but the shorts don't have an emotional attachment to the stock. It's a calculated risk, a game of averages. We all expect them to react with the emotion many investors bring to the stock, but they don't. They are playing the sector-wide shorting trend in addition to the HDY-specific shorting trend. To them, events like the sailing of a drill ship are a non-event.
When their numbers say short, they short. When those numbers say get out, they'll get out. When and if we strike oil, they'll be scrambling to get out, but when the share price reaches a high before pulling back and levelling, they'll be shorting again.
Finding oil is the game changer. I suspect if we find oil the stock will take off in the short term and then fall back to a price the reflects the stage of exploration we are at.
I think we need to keep our expectations in line with the events. If the first and/or second well prove oil, that is all they will have done. Unlike what I have read in some posts, we will not have proven 1.2B barrels with the first well, only that there is oil. I would suspect the impact on the price will reflect the confirmation that HDY is sitting on a potentially world class oil discovery. One well will not take us from unproven to a company sitting on billions of barrels. It will take us from a company with no proof of oil to one with proof and a strong probability of proving the reserves indicated in the 2D & 3D siesmic that is based on evidence of oil in the ground.
I have no idea how to calculate an impact like that on the share price. I think though that we would more than break the $10 price barrier. And that the current shorts would be decimated. I would also anticipate a new round of shorting once the initial spike shows signs of peaking.
For those shorts betting we don't find oil, covering now would be like paying off the bet before the game starts.
Keep something in mind. Statistically, based on the probablility given in the NSAI report, the odds of not finding oil with the first two wells are 60-40 in their favour.
HDY used to over-react to the moves of XOP on the downside. It now appears that for the second day straight she is trying to break the bonds that hold her :D
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HDY&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=XOP
August 15th Short interest 29,467,620 (increase of 2.71 M)
After watching the shares out on loan graph continue to climb, this came as no surprise.
She's out of range of the Marine Traffic tracking network and will be until it approaches the Cape (or Madigascar if it passes close enough).
They are planning on 45 days to drill each well according to the June CC
Kosmos announced the what turned into the Jubilee field while they were still completing the Mahogany 1 well. May we be so fortunate :)
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2007_June_18/ai_n19297024/
As goes XOP, so goes HDY
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/nasdaqlastsale.aspx?symbol=XOP&selected=XOP
HDY 2nd well is now confirmed
JASPER EXPLORER COMMENCES CONTRACT WITH AGR IN WEST AFRICA
AGR exercises option for Jasper Explorer to drill second well
Singapore, 22 August 2011 – Jasper Investments Limited, a Singapore-listed offshore drilling company, today announced that its drillship, the Jasper Explorer, has begun its mobilisation from Singapore to the Republic of Guinea, marking the commencement of its drilling contract with AGR Well Management Ltd. The vessel, which cleared acceptance and performance tests conducted by AGR in Singapore, is scheduled to arrive in West African waters in early October 2011 to begin drilling operations.
Jasper also announced that AGR has exercised its option for the Jasper Explorer to drill a second well in offshore Guinea for Hyperdynamics Corporation. This brings the estimated value of the drilling contract to around US$26 million and the duration of the drilling programme to about 90 days. AGR has the option to deploy the Jasper Explorer for another five wells on mutually agreeable terms.
Listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange, AGR is a well management company contracted by Hyperdynamics, an oil and gas exploration and production company listed on the New York Stock Exchange, to manage its exploration drilling programme in offshore Republic of Guinea.
Eisso Koenders, General Manager, Jasper Offshore, said: "We are pleased to have cleared the acceptance tests by AGR. This will allow the Jasper Explorer to commence drilling immediately when it arrives on location.
(see the entire press release here)
http://www.finanznachrichten.de/pdf/20110822_074216_FQ7_14A0ECDEE8174B22482578F300818C4D.1.pdf
I have full confidence in the management. Wouldn't be here if I didn't :)
Low volume days like this usually set up the scenario for those sudden downward lurches to clean out the stops ... won't surprise me to see a move at some point.
From what I've heard, I certainly can't blame you for the reaction :( I wasn't around then but I've read enough to understand. Sounds almost like a PTSD thing.
Now we just got all the 'tutes to worry about. Hopefully though they won't be able to reign in the price once oil is proven :D
Oil looks to be taking off again, hopefully we follow.
I don't think the drop had anything to do with the Watts. During the time frame HDY dropped from the $4.50 range to the $4.30 range, oil dropped from the $88.90 range to the $87.30 range. XOP also dropped from the $54.50 range to the $53.10 range during the same time frame.
It's third-hand conjecture at best. I personally don't put a lot of stock in it. I don't know what IR said, only what Dali says his friend says IR said.
When I was in grade six, our teacher had us sit in a circle. He wrote down a single line on a piece of paper and showed it to one person in the circle and instructed that person to tell the next person what the piece of paper said. By the time the saying went full circle, what was being passed on had no resemblance to what was written on the piece of paper.
Why would there be a first phase to a report if there isn't a second one? Doesn't that go without saying?
More to the point, "This report is the first phase of our 3D seismic-based assessment of prospects and leads, some of which were the subject of our report as of July 1, 2010, and dated September 7, 2010."
Sorry if my response was to the point. I guess I just figured that this, including that the drill prospects did not show in the original 2D, was common knowledge by now.
Well we've all known that these prospects did not show in the 2D since the last conference call. As for the balance of the 3D, anyone who took the time to read the first pages of the NSAI report knows the answer. Anyone who didn't might well be making investment decisions on information his buddy said he got from IR.
When I see babble like this about HDY from someone making recommendations I pity those who simply lap it up instead of doing their own research.
"Institutions hold 29.82% of the stock, whereas insider transactions have increased by 137.68% in the last six months. Target price is $8.00, which indicates an about 85.6% upside movement potential."
Really? So they don't know that there was a recent upgrade on target price to $11?
http://classic.cnbc.com/id/44073846
They don't know that institutional ownership is now 39% and climbing?
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=HDY&selected=HDY&FormType=Institutional
I wonder if they know anything about HDY other than what they retrieved from some their own outdated notes. Never mind what the rest of the twitt said. If you don't do your own due diligence . . . well it goes without saying . . .
Sounds like just another alpha twitt.
I hope they installed a bigger engine. It's 48 1/2 days @ 7.6 knots average travelling speed via the Cape of Good Hope and only something like 25 nautical miles shorter going via the Suez Canal.
http://www.maritimechain.com/partners/port_distance_call.asp
Nice. That's the second piece of news about other compnaies taking an interest in Guinea in the past month. Seems the exploration industry is finally waking up to the potential HDY has already discovered. Pity they're so late to the party :D
That's funny! I think you're about right with the date tho :D