Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Sexton
During the last month an analyst, I think it was a fella named Wu, said you just have to throw away the traditional metrics and drink the kool-aid when it comes to Apple *grin*
I am not at great risk, though I am at some risk. I figure I sell the calls on Monday and Tuesday and I have trailing stops on my long shares.
Apple could use another consumer electronics hit - the video iPod will be one. They need another one.
The software business is strong. The services/music business is strong. The CPU business is growing far more rapidly than the industry rate. The server business and storage business is growing strongly, though under the radar. Enterprise is growing, again under the radar.
The product development model and process at Apple seems to be working well.
So there are risks, but I am, to the extent possible, protecting myself from them. The phone network will happen before the end of 2006, I think. It will be huge if Apple does their usual improvement of the user interface.
It is worth holding a core position and playing December is pretty much a no brainer, however, I would not be a buyer of long shares here - not because I don't think there may not be upside from here, but because the risk is too high.
Remember, in April 2003 the shares were at $7, split adjusted.
The rev C's
Kathy is enjoying hers.
Me, I'm gonna call AppleCare to find out about that email issue I wrote of a couple of weeks ago *grin*
Guy told me that if you say "Technician" right after pushing the button for desktop system, you get to a live person a lot faster.
I couldn't care lesser about
you grammarians. I just want Apple to go up a bit more on Monday. Not a whole lot, a wee bit would be fine. A whole lot would be fine also, but a wee bit would be otay.
I'd sell most of these calls, be up over 15% for the year before the 10th of January and have a glass of good wine to celebrate when I get home from work.
Might even put the profits into a Canadian coal company that has lots of metallurgical coal and pays a 15% divvy :) (FDG)
Burning answer to Blake
I do not know if investors have ramped up AAPL price to high. I think it will go higher on Monday before the MacWorld keynote on Tuesday.
Apple is not just an iPod maker. They are also not just a hardware company. They have multiple business lines, all of which have been doing pretty well. There are going to be some new software things - look for iWeb, a web design package for the masses and perhaps the addition of a spreadsheet and database to the iWork package.
Apple is a top to bottom user experience company. Hardware, software, content, user interface. Some people enjoy dinking around with stuff and making it work. Most folks do not.
I would like to see a 1 gig Nano.
I plan to be back to our core AAPL position before earnings are announced on Jan. 18. I may hold onto a few Feb 80 calls, but they are already paid for by profits on calls over the past week - and I am inclined against it. Expectations are pretty freaking high and disappointed expectations can be deadly to short term investments.
The demand for the video enabled iPods is pretty high. In fact, some people who model Apple revenues and earnings are modeling a slightly higher iPod average unit price due to video iPod demand.
There will be new products introduced next week. I dunno what, but the rumors are Intel Mac laptops and a new consumer electronics product on the hardware side.
Gold and stuff
I'm 25% miners now - GG, AUY, GRS and GPXM.
Am aggressive Apple Computer right now and for the next week or so.
Picked up large cap Latin America (ILF), mostly Brasil and Mexico for some diversification :), and some PIXR, mostly on projected reaction of an upcoming distribution deal with Disney (or someone else) - and they have a new movie coming out this year.
So far so good, up 12.5% for 2006 - but 60% of those gains come from options and that ain't sustainable as I am not bent towards much option playing. Getting spoiled, though, by seeing big green 3 of the last 4 days. I'm thinking I could go to sleep for the next 6 months and be in good shape, but only after selling the remaining options :).
No energy at this time, other than through the Latin American thing which has some exposure to Brasilian energy companies. That may change after the next week or so.
Could this be it?
Mr. Powerpage himself, Jason O'Grady, is laying down a rumor of Apple plasma displays at Macworld, alongside the annals of his recent breakfast at Wawa. At Wawa he grabbed a breakfast sandwich, but at Macworld he's expecting 42 and 50-inch plasma HDTVs with DVI-HDCP and VGA hookups. The real story here is that Apple would be cramming in whole VIIV computers into these things, including Mac OS 10.4.4 for x86, and charging a mere $2599 or $3299 respectively for the privledge. He's also saying the included remote will be all 12-buttoned and LCD sporting, but that no keyboard or mouse will be included, leaving these squarely targeted at working your media. Since we're hanging in Vegas we've already started the betting pool, which is currently at a buck fifty for and fifty cents against (high rollers, we know) but we'll leave it to Stevie J to verify this one on tuesday at Macworld -- our fingers are crossed.
http://www.engadget.com/2006/01/07/apple-to-launch-plasma-hdtvs-at-macworld-next-week/
Just for the record
I think MW is going to be huge. I think a new consumer electronic product will be introduced that will blow the socks off the industry - if not immediately, then within a year.
It will make CES seem like a high school science fair show, containing some nice, intelligent stuff, but nothing that really changes the way folks think about things like video, audio and the home entertainment industry.
That is my prediction.
edit: And, for the record, my money is where my mouth is.
iPods are a sideshow when it comes to a la carte video commerce
lango, you are certainly correct, in my opinion. The point is, video enabled iPods are not a sideshow when it comes to Apple's top or bottom line. A la carte video commerce, as things stand now and in the near future, is a sideshow in that arena.
There needs to be adequate iPod enabled content to support video enabled iPod marketing.
More on Google
While all of videos downloaded through Apple can be transferred onto a portable player -- albeit only its own iPod -- for on-the-go viewing, that won't be true at Google's service.
Google has developed its own copy protection technology that so far prevents content owners from moving their video downloads to a mobile playing device. In instances where the content provider adopts Google's copy protection scheme, watching a video sold through Google will require users to be online so they can log on and view it via the company's video player. CBS and the NBA are among the content owners adopting Google's copy protections.
However, if a content owner posts unrestricted video on Google, the user could move the video onto pretty much any portable device. Charlie Rose is among those offering unprotected video.
In another distinction from iTunes, Google Video so far works only on Microsoft Corp.'s Windows-based PCs and not yet on Apple's Macintosh computers.
By relying on its own proprietary copy-protection technology, Google threatens to compound the frustration that some consumers feel when they buy songs from one online source like the iTunes store, only to discover the music can't be played on an incompatible gadget such as Creative Technologies' Zen player.
Forrester Research analyst Josh Bernoff offered a possible explanation for Google's decision: "It's arrogance."
A majority of new media players and media centers, other than Apple's and Sony's devices, are built to work with Microsoft's copy-protection technology -- a setup that most entertainment companies have embraced.
"So now Google is telling Toshiba and others, 'No, you have to implement ours.' It's just crazy," Bernoff said.
Here is a big item on Google's video announcement
A launch date for the expansion has not been released.
I imagine the market is going to be big enough for multiple participants in the market. I imagine Apple is going to sell tens of millionns of video capable iPods.
I imagine it is going to be messy for a time :), but then I was napping while the goog-guy was talking.
all but declare war
Let the games begin :).
We'll find out how much a good user experience - software, hardware, store etc... is worth.
I suspect it is worth a lot to a lot of people. I suspect Google will have a much more difficult time delivering it than will Apple.
Odd option prices
I have Jan 75 and Feb 80
Record week.
Up 12.31% for the week, our combined IRA self-managed portfolios.
Bootz, everything in portfolio
Me too. Our IRAs could lose 1/3 of the gains over the afternoon, and we'd be up double digits for 2006 so far - or more than my 401k mutual fund portfolio was for 2005 (and I was pleased with its performance) - but with considerable more risk, they say.
mollyagain,
I don't know for sure what AAPL will end up doing for the year, but I think your broker has the right direction for AAPL movement.
Timing of the movement, I don't have a crystal ball, but I'd bet at least a nickel AAPL will be north of 75 on January's options expiration date.
Well, my thoughts about AAPL dropping
Weren't accurate, so I reloaded this morning. Pleased with the results so far.
Watch it sink like a stone in the ocean on Monday now :)
Philips, Microsoft team up on Internet phones
By teaming up with Microsoft, we are demonstrating our commitment to bringing the benefits of VoIP to consumers," said Nick Dosanjh, Vice President & General Manager Philips Home Communication. "IP-based telephony is growing in popularity among consumers making use of their home broadband connections for a whole new range of communications options and services. Our new cordless phone will allow consumers the ability to simplify their communications experiences and reduce their costs while providing them with the convenience of having a phone with live messaging, without sitting in front of their PC."
The VOIP433 represents an important development in Philips' 'Connected Planet ' vision, adding telecommunications to entertainment, thus providing consumers with greater freedom to benefit from wireless and Internet-enabled technology wherever they are at home.
"The world of web-based voice communications is exploding - to consumers' great benefit. We're excited to offer the simplicity and freedom of peer-to-peer voice communications by combining Philips cordless phone technology with Windows Live Messenger," said Blake Irving, corporate vice president of the MSN Communication Services and Member Platform group at Microsoft. "The VOIP433 handset with Windows Live Messenger delivers on our vision to extend integrated Windows Live communications beyond the PC. We're very proud of this product and service and are thrilled to be working with such a strong partner."
The new VOIP433 Dual Phone is portable and has a simple plug and play feature that provides customers with a worry-free broadband installation experience. Featuring cost-free installation, consumers simply plug the base station into the landline and the USB plug of a PC; the handset is then automatically ready to operate with Windows Live Messenger 8.0. The VOIP433 operates on Digitally Enhanced Cordless Telephone (DECT ) technology providing consumers with crystal clear sound by reducing noise interference.
The VOIP433 will debut in Europe, Asia Pacific (Autralia, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Singapore) and Latin America (Argentina, Brazil) and be available for purchase in the spring of 2006.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF547263F%2DE041%2D417B%2DAE13%2DE907F9FC217C%7D
If things go according to plan
AAPL will drop some more tomorrow. I'll buy a small quantity of calls in the afternoon. If it drops more on Monday after google's video announcements, I will buy some more. Strike price will depend on where the share price is.
Blue....yeeks
I'll be happy if they let me create bloglike stuff and easily publish it to my .Mac homepage - and if they will automatically create a clickable list of blog entries off to one side and so on.
I'm getting ready to re-learn some basic GoLive (which came with CS) in order to do a bit more than publish photos from iPhoto - but if Apple came out with an adequate package I'd be happy to sell CS@ GoLive Classroom in a Book to the high bidder.
from appleinsider
Sources had previously told AppleInsider that Apple was preparing to introduce a new Web design application during next week's Macworld Expo, which would integrate with the company's .Mac suite of Internet services.
The Web application, referred to as "Webpages 1.0" by AppleInsider sources, is said to draw heavily from components in Apple's "Pages" application to provide easy drag-and-drop capability for a variety of Web-optimized content and media types.
If Webpages and iWeb are one and the same, users of the application should be able to drag and drop everything from pictures and movies to widgets, iCal calendars and iTunes playlist into pre-designed Web page templates.
The application will reportedly bundle a set predefined modules with specific behaviors, such as: blank webpage; photo album; photo slideshow; movie album; blog; forms; comments; custom code (HTML & PHP) and; secure zone (https + authentication).
Enhancing .Mac
Members of Apple's .Mac Internet services may be able to purchase domain names (.com, .net, and .org) directly from within the Web application, sources have said. Alternatively, the application will allow quick and simple Web site publishing through a member's existing .Mac Web space.
iWeb slip up
Apple reportedly set out to design the new Web application in a way that it would enhance its consumer software offerings and drive subscriptions to its .Mac internet services (which it hopes will reach 1 million users sometime this year).
In effort to provide better value against a plethora of free services on the Internet -- including those offered by Internet giants such as Google and Yahoo! -- the company may also slash the yearly .Mac subscription fee from $99.95 to an appeal price of $69.95, sources added.
To support the new Web application and its many features, .Mac is also expected to receive a slight upgrade to support PHP and SQL. Additionally, sources say the application may provide more custom options--including pre- and user-defined templates--for all Web pages published to users' .Mac accounts through iMovie and iPhoto.
Alt
Please demonstrate some evidence of having read posts you respond to. You can earn extra credit for demonstrating that you thought about the content you read.
So far you do not have passing grade for the day.
Ron
When the iPod market finally peaks maybe in late 2008 their might be room to negotiate but until a formidable competitor surfaces I really don't see why Apple should do this.
The answer to the why in your words is to take action that reduces the chances for formidable competitors to surface. That is, after all, why Apple brought out the Shuffle.
Proactive, strategic moves, that is why.
Fairplay and iPods and the rest of them
Here are some questions I have been pondering:
1) What might the consequences be if Apple licensed Fairplay widely to other media companies, and/or
2) Enabled iPods to play other formats with other DRM schemes?
Seems to me like there is some of the age-old (for Apple) tension between selling hardware and software/content.
Would content sales from iTMS increase greatly as a result of #1? Could Apple pick up a wee bit of licensing money from Fairplay?
Would iPod sales increase appreciably from #2? Would it stave off competiton? What kind of business move would it be for Apple?
OT RNWK
Also a rumor about Google distributing RNWK as part of a software bundle. Can't bring myself to buy it though - more religious stuff :)
lango, it wasn't religious, really :)
Sold rest of trading shares at 74.41 for a $2.50 a share gain.
A wee cautious about the rest of this week - and the year has started off so nicely. Did gamble some, buying some PIXR @ 56.01 earlier this morning. Glad I sold all the last of the energy I held last week.
But then, when religious fanatics defend their blind devotion to the "superiority" of their chosen belief, reality and reason give way to rationalization stacked on rationalization.
And here I thought we weren't gonna talk about politics for while *grin*
Ron, out of context in the People's Republic of Portland.
AAPL strategy going into the next two weeks
I had purchased some Jan and Feb AAPL calls in batches on 12/20, 12/22 and 12/29. I finished selling them this morning for a nice gain with which to start the year. I think/thought there was too much uncertainty with GoogVid and CES annoucements to hold them.
Also sold one of 4 batches of trading shares this morning - these were purchased near $71.9.
So I still have some trading shares and a wad of cash. Will have to watch what happens. If Apple does a fairly good back-up by the end of the week, I will be tempted to buy some calls one strike price or so above the share price. Don't know that I will, but......
I know there are fantasies about a GoogVid Apple tie-in somehow - and it would be neat, but fantasies are not enough to hold calls that can be sold for a good profit - not for me anyway.
Any of you guys feel like sharing your AAPL thoughts over the next couple of weeks? What kind of plays are you planning - other than Bootz who already shared his purchases.
Apple has not offered a live streaming feed for their Macworld Keynote addresses for a number of years.
I am taking the day off anyway; thinking there will probably be a iChat room opened up for discussion, excited exclamations, sighs of disappointment and other signs of the ecstasy of victory and the agony of defeat :).
Apple has approved a license for the iSee, which requires ATO to pay a license fee and royalties.
I like this.
Maybe Apple will license FairPlay at some point in time. Seems like that could throw a whammy to competing standards, but maybe my seems like is too simplistic.
Airport updates, is something in the air?
Apple's not waiting for Macworld San Francisco to release software updates; a bundle of fixes and updates are available for Airport Extreme.
These include Airport Express Firmware Update 6.3 for OS X, Airport Extreme Firmware 5.7 The same-numbered updates are available for Windows as well.
The updates are for Airport, AirTunes and Base Stations. All offer a number of bug fixes and improvements.
Analysis: Hm. We think it's right to be suspicious only days before Macworld; sure, you get the little software updates out of the way before the big hardware announcements. But Airport updates? Is there something in the wind involving (say) Airport, the Mac Mini and, possibly, your big-screen TV? After all, it's always nice to have the firmware in place before you do the big announcement.
http://www.insanely-great.com/news.php?id=5630
At least it didn't start months ago
Hold off on biting into new Apple
Wait for more information about the shift to Intel chips before buying a new Macintosh.
Fortune Magazine
By Peter H Lewis, FORTUNE senior editor
January 3, 2006: 5:56 PM EST
Those are just the Central Banks covered by the Washington agreement, right?
Yield Curve
Maudlin's Dec 30 newsletter on this topic was a good, research based look at the yield curve hype.
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/
and hoping for a 2 gig shuffle is equiv to hoping the share price goes down.
Yeah, altaire, but do you believe it?
The .Mac increased bandwidth thing
So, how many think it was really an error?
From someone who used to work at an Apple store
Someone who lives somewhere we wanna live.
Luckily for the company, all of us who worked there loved the products and worked for that reason b/c the pay was definitely not a reason. It was a constant issue about the differences in pay, benefits, etc. between us and the corporate guys. Anyway, those on the sale floor were paid between $13-$9/hr (higher end being those who started before the company dropped the pay rates). Geniuses were paid no more than $35K (at least all the ones I know
I've never made 10% in a day before
It was fun - about 60% of it was on some calls I bought over the past two weeks - sold 2/3rds of them into strength. The rest was gold and AAPl shares. Fella could get used to that for a few days :).
So much for low paid, at least for the geniuses.