Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Geez. What an incredibly deal this thing was at .72 back when the world was coming to an end.
Never bought it, but congrats to anyone who owns this thing below $1
Incredible run.
In sarcoma, the nearest thing for 573 revenues, and wont be until mid-2012. The target approval date is 6 to 9 months generally after NDA submission...which puts it mid 2012, maybe a few months earlier. Merck, the morons that they are, are dragging their knuckles as long as they possibly can with this NDA and the entire Ridaforolimus program. They still havent indicated anything further for endometrial. They are only in beginning of Phase 2 for breast in combo with dalotuzumab. Ergo, it will not be at least 4 years until 573 sees a revenue in any indication other than sarcoma.
534 IMO sees revenues before 573, its going to be a very close call but I believe they will be able to "sell" 534 to T315i patients before Rida is approved for marketing.
You can thank for imbeciles at Merck for that.
Either way, iin 3 years, no one is going to give a rats ass about Ridaforiimus and Mercks knuckledragging of the program.
PS. i think berger learned his lessons about dealing with dinosaurs in big pharma...and i don expect him to deal with them in terms of development ever again.
Hey Berger..give this pile of sh*t some news.
I'm sick of waiting around for $15
ANALYSIS-Biotech buys seen in cancer, immunology, neurology
12:52 PM Eastern Daylight Time Jul 13, 2011
* Top targets include Dendreon, Vertex, Biogen
* Potential buyers gauging success of new drug launches
* Larger drugmakers looking to find new growth
By Deena Beasley
LOS ANGELES, July 13 (Reuters) - Biotech companies focused on cancer treatments are some of the hottest acquisition targets in the drug industry, growing in value with novel drugs that have the potential for high price tags.
Other takeover candidates include companies with promising drugs for immunological or neurological disorders
The group already has lofty valuations, partly fueled by takeover speculation. But they could still command premiums as high as 30 to 40 percent from larger drugmakers pressed to find new growth, according to investment bankers and industry sources.
"We have seen some very successful oncology drugs," said Fariba Ghodsian, chief investment officer at hedge fund DAFNA Capital. "Novel drugs with novel targets are in demand."
Current takeover candidates -- all of which operate at a loss -- include Dendreon <DNDN.O>, Pharmacyclics <PCYC.O>, Synta Pharmaceuticals <SNTA.O>, Threshold Pharmaceuticals <THLD.O>, Seattle Genetics <SGEN.O> and Exelixis <EXEL.O>, analysts and industry bankers said.
"Over the next year or two, you'd be right on at least half of these names (getting sold)," said one investment banker who declined to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media.
Past successes in oncology-related deals include Bristol-Myers Squibb's <BMY.N> 2009 purchase of Medarex, which has yielded the first successful treatment for melanoma, but the field is riddled with risk when it comes to the actual value of medical breakthroughs and regulatory scrutiny.
Seattle Genetics is a case in point. Shares in the company are up 32 percent this year, on hopes for its experimental drug to treat two rare types of blood cancer, compared with an 11 percent gain for the Amex Biotechnology Index. The medicine, Adcetris, is up for review this week by U.S. health regulators who cautioned on Tuesday it may be suitable for a smaller-than-expected patient group. [see story]
"Seattle Genetics I feel is very highly valued," Ghodsian said, adding that because the drug would be the company's first commercial product, potential acquirers are likely to hold off until they see how it does in the marketplace.
Another cancer drug developer with an expensive share price is Dendreon, which last year launched sales of Provenge, a novel vaccine treatment for prostate cancer that costs $93,000 per year. The company's shares have gained 10 percent in 2011.
"They have strong pricing power with Provenge," said Morningstar analyst Damien Conover. "A deal could hit the bottom line (of an acquirer) a lot quicker than some of the other firms out there."
Ghodsian said Dendreon will also likely "have to show that the launch is going really well for a period of time," before any buyers step up.
CANCER DRUG SALES OUTPACE
The allure of new cancer drugs is high -- growth in the global oncology market is expected to be twice that of the overall pharmaceutical market, reaching up to $80 billion in sales by 2012, according to IMS Health.
The drug research firm also estimates that $25.4 billion in U.S. drug sales are at risk of generic competition this year as patents expire on iconic drug brands like Pfizer Inc's <PFE.N> Lipitor or Bristol and Sanofi's <SASY.PA> Plavix.
At the same time, large drug makers are cutting research and development, giving them a greater appetite for buying products with significant sales potential. [see story]
In addition to cancer, Alzheimer's, rheumatoid arthritis and other "old age ailments" are cornerstone areas that all big pharma need to have more exposure to, bankers said.
Targets range from Biogen Idec <BIIB.O>, with a price-to-earnings ratio near 25, to smaller companies like InterMune <ITMN.O>, which trades at around 17 times trailing 12-month earnings. Shares in the S&P 500 trade, on average, at around 16 times earnings.
Conover said Biogen is an attractive buyout candidate given its relatively robust drug development pipeline combined with the profit-boost of existing products like multiple sclerosis drugs Avonex and Tysabri.
"There is at least a 30 percent chance of Biogen being taken out in the next three years," RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Yee said, citing the company's diversified product lines and capacity for manufacturing biotech drugs.
Full data from a key trial of the company's experimental MS drug, BG-12, will be presented this fall. Positive initial results, announced in April, sent Biogen shares up as much as 24 percent to an all-time high.
Two other biotechs with recently launched drugs -- Human Genome Sciences <HGSI.O> with lupus treatment Benlysta and Vertex Pharmaceuticals <VRTX.O> with hepatitis drug Incivek -- have new drugs that will define their value.
"They have to prove that they can deliver on the blockbuster potential of these franchises," said RBC's Yee.
He named Pharmasset <VRUS.O> as another potential buyout target involved in development of hepatitis drugs.
Ghodsian cited InterMune, which saw its pulmonary fibrosis drug Esbriet approved by European regulators in March, as a strong takeover candidate, even though the company said in April that it was not considering a sale.
"The feedback from physicians is that it (Esbriet) will be used extensively in Europe," she said. "The valuation is relatively low." InterMune is conducting a separate pivotal trial of the drug for review by U.S. regulators.
(Reporting by Deena Beasley, additional reporting by Jessica Hall; Editing by Tim Dobbyn)
Someone wanna goose this PIG???
no, i am the furthest thing from a former or current pharma employee.
ARRY
Dont know if this is what you saw as well:
On July 12, 2011, Array entered into a Collaboration and License Agreement with
ASLAN Pharmaceuticals Pte Ltd., a Singapore corporation ("ASLAN"), dated July
12, 2011, granting ASLAN the exclusive worldwide right to develop Array's HER2
/ EGFR inhibitor, ARRY-543, currently entering phase 2 development for solid
tumors. Under the agreement, ASLAN will fund and conduct clinical development
activities for ARRY-543 through clinical proof of concept. Upon achievement of
clinical proof of concept, ASLAN has agreed to seek to license the program to a
third party for phase 3 development and commercialization. In consideration for
the rights granted to ASLAN under the agreement, Array will receive a
significant portion of the consideration received under any such partnering
transaction. Under the agreement, ASLAN also has an option to negotiate to
license a second undisclosed compound from Array.
The agreement will remain in effect for two years after conclusion of the
initial development plan, unless ASLAN has entered into a license agreement
with a third party for the further development and commercialization of the
program, in which case the agreement shall remain in force and effect. Either
party may terminate the agreement prior to expiration of the term following
breach of the agreement by the other party. ASLAN is responsible for diligently
advancing development ARRY-543 under an agreed upon development plan. Array and
ASLAN have also agreed to indemnify the other party for certain of their
respective manufacturing and development activities under the agreement.
And Merck is still twidling their thumbs with the NDA .
What? You don't believe in the 9-day swing trade or the Elliot Wave Theory? :o)
LOL. I like technicals, but only the basics. When you start getting into Elliot Waves, and the like....you're really grasping at straws.
It seems as of more recently, having partnered all assets, is a hinderance on the upward mobility of a stock. Am I wrong about this?
Have you been following the ONTY story? If so, i would be interested in your thoughts on Stimuvax. I can see controversial results coming out of the study.... you know, sorta like Provenge. Or something like, showing a several month survival trend, but barely missing the primary endpoint or something like that.
too much overhead resistance? the all time high in the stock was around 8.00. A couple points away from where its trading now, and then theres no overhead resistance. zzzzzzz
Theres actually some intelligence of the ONTY Yahoo board. Redplate apparently used to work for Biomira and is pretty upbeat about Stimuvax. I guess we'll see... Lots of people thought Provenge was cooked, too. I consider Stimuvax a crapshoot, but if it hits, ONTY where it is right now IMO is terribly undervalued.
PGS, you are clearly a "paid schill" for the hedgies that are shorting ONTY and you are in collaboration with Adam Feuerstein...you are making it abundantly clear with your questions regarding Stimuvax. We now know your motives.
LMFAO. Of course I am only kidding. Did you think you were posting on Yahoo! for a second?
Thanks for your comments; I am long ONTY but would rather hear all sides.
I agree with that entirely. And I just had this discussion with one of my colleagues today about this very issue. They "fixed" Greece, so now they are going after whatever is next in line. And that 'next in line' is Italy. When Italy gets fixed, then it will be Portugal, when they fix Portugal, everyone will be saying "OMG, it's Spain." There's a lot of scumbags out there...vultures.
Thanks. I hear what you are saying. I wouldn't even pretend to give you an explanation.
I just think there is "evidence" of the drug working in the Phase 2b study. It's a crapshoot...like Provenge. Personally, I hope Merck KGaA just decides to buy them before the results...lol (i dont think it is remotely going to happen...but i wish it would). Would take a whole lot of agony off my back. Russian roulette.
Sorry to offend you, I don't mean you in particular, I just never understood the rationale of waiting for a stock that you love, to "come to you". I wonder how many people with that philosophy missed AAPL at 13.00, because they wanted to buy it at 12.75
If you think it's going to $20, why on Earth would you be so cheap to wait for it to get a few pennies lower?
I never really understood that rationale.
If someone came along and went "hostile" on Ariad tomorrow at $20-25/share I would be FREAKING GIDDYYYY.
No one knows what the future holds. To speak of "$45 in 2 years!!!" is just pie in the sky. For all I know, europe is going to implode, tghe global economy is going in the toilet, and bad things are going to happen in two years. I tend to think on a shorter term basis because when people start talking about "in 2 to 3 years"....well 2-3 years ago, in 2006, i'm sure lots of people were talking 2-3 years out real estate is going to double again etc etc and how did that turn out?
Again. PLEASE someone offer $20 for ARIAD. Please.
How do you explain the Phase 2b data which, I guess, verified their data mining in a previous Phase 2 study?
ONTY: Stimuvax.... a good read from AF
A good "primer" read.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/11179526/1/oncothyreon-deep-dive-into-stimuvax.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
If it "trickles" up to 15.00, I probably will not sell...I just see that area as a technical level. I am waiting for a big gap up..which is my selling point.
Don't use my targets. Use your own.
I am just a poster here. My buys or sells mean nothing in the scheme of things....there are a lot bigger fish out there that is FOR SURE.
So, tell me what FMR LLCs holdings are right now in ARIA.
Better yet, show me, as of 6/11/2011, what Wellington Management's holdings are in IBM.
I am telling you (you can believe me, or not, but, others like RKRW and DewDiligence can certainly verify this):
Hedge Funds and Asset Management Firms (generally over $100 million AUM and other requirements) are required by the SEC, 4 times a year, at the end of close on each quarter, within 45 days following the close of the quarter (for quarter ending June 30th (Q2), that would be ~August 15, 2011), to file their holdings in a 13F filing with the S.E.C. Asset Managers and others who take a 5% + beneficial stake in a company are required within 10 days to filed a 13D.
Either way, June 30th ended recently. As you can see, only three (3) firms have updated their CLOSE OF Q2 REPORTED HOLDINGS thus far:
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=ARIA&selected=ARIA&FormType=Institutional
Anything else on that list is AS-OF March 31, 2011....which they had until May 15, 2011 to file.
I am telling you, and you don't have to take my word for it if you don't want...and I do not know where you are getting your "Fidelity information" from, but it is old, outdated, and not AS-OF June 30, 2011...it's old information. FMR LLC has NOT filed their end of Q2 13F, and they do not publish their holdings month to month, week to week, or day to day. No firm I know of does this. If you think you have a website that is giving you this information, or god forbid, you are paying for this information...demand your money back, or don't use it.
FMR, Wellington, etc., generally file very late in the cycle, ie., for Q2, they will file around August 14-15.
This is all old data.
End of Q 2 reported holdings by asset managers isn't due until 45 days after close of quarter. ....so, mid August. ...although, some do not wait that long.
BTW, if you are looking up "real time " holdings on maffais.com (or whatever that pathetic site is)....throw it out the window. Hedge funds etc., do not, and will not (unless instructed to by law) report their holdings to the public in real-time.
yes the first interim happened at the time they said it should have. i agree with you about the fact if stimuvax succeeds it should have a marketcap well over one billion which would be nearly triple its current value...simply bc stimuvax works, but also bc all therisk is taken out of the stock and they have Px866 and ont10, a followup to stimuvax.
imo, stock simply sold bc of a bad stock market and daytrading. low volume trendbreak..i dont make anythig of it. i just hope the FDAs ridiculous halt of the trial doesnt somehow corrupt results.
and yes, a failure of the trial would be pretty disasterous for the stock. wouldnt be worthless bc of their PI3k drug, but, thats a pretty boring story and not a reason to own the stock imo. i am crossing my fingers.
personally, i hope merk kaag pulls a bmy and does a medarex type of acquisitiion before results....i would be fine with 20 share. lol.
these are all great threads. thanks for all the opinions.
definitely worth a read for anyone who hasnt read yet.
Right. The deal that Paseri did with DNA was pretty pathetic.
The only way I see GDC449 being a big money maker is in combination trials, such as pancreatic carcinomas. There are rumors that some of the NCI trials with 449 and Gem combo are showing good results. There are also several other NCI-Roche trials in combination studies some of which should be due this year.
Kind of strange that a drug that effectively eradicates massive tumors, lesions in peoples skin is worth so little from an investment standpoint. Where the Hh antagonists work, they work extremely well....just, so far, not in many indications.
BTW, while you weren't looking, GNBT.OB up 70%.
Garza? lol
The market shrugged off a steaming pile of sh*t today.
I'm not a seller.
Could they have possibly used any more biological words/terminology in that press release? I swear, this PR is like when I was 15 years old writing a english report and I just kept pressing on the Thesaurus feature trying to find "cool sounding" words so I don't sound like a simpleton.
I'm not a seller of good momentum ;)
I'd rather buy it on strength as it goes up. I want to buy more, I just don't want to commit any more capital to this market just yet, without re-allocating some of my other positions, which, at the moment, I do not want to do.
They do not have a terrible burn rate...$36 million isn't terrible, but it's definitely not great. They do need more cash for CUDC101.
currently, they have the same market cap as CTIC the Scam. Ridiculous...which, lol, could actually say more about the overvaluation of CTIC than the potential undervaluation of CRIS
.
Other than the fact that Joe Pantginis is one of the biggest low-life scumbag analysts on the Street (how much money does he making fleecing investors tied to banking deals??), he essentially said he liked the final data of 449 and also places 60% probability of success on their second study in operable BCC for 449 (due much later). Said its a billion dollar drug in the two indications (CEO of CRIS made a pathetic deal so that's probably only worth 10% of that money to CRIS). FWIW, Pantginis downgraded CRIS a month or so ago on price - he's a loser. The fact he upgraded it a month later means CRIS is likely planning an offering and they want higher price which Roth will be the co-financier.
Oh. $4 to $7 target now.
I don't ever think it will happen. It's not like Merck is really giving Ariad all that much in royalties as it is..
Clearly, at this point, Ariad is Ponatinib. Without Ponatinib, ARIA, IMO would be trading ~$5-6/share right now..if that.