Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
PATCO, it's interesting to see how the market "picks up" on subtle clues, real or imagined, and reacts by fear or greed. I think the market is trading on Stoll's "enthusiasm factor". In my mind, the ASM didn't affect me in either direction.
I hope the 6 foot box contained 5.99 feet of observational/lab/empirical data and a few pages of succinct analysis so the FDA doesn't have to pore over every page, good god!
As for me, I think that IF (a big IF) the FDA is NOT corrupt, or road-blocking Cortex at the request (and payola) of some BP that is purposefully trying to pressure COR to steal it's assets at firesale prices (call me a conspiracy nut), then CX-717 dosing restriction will soon be fully lifted.
I wish I could say that I was 100% confident that the FDA was above board, but unfortunately, I believe that "the man" is easily corrupted. I am however, perhaps stupidly, giving the process the benefit of the doubt as I've never been more fully invested in COR than now. I believe that COR hired the right people and have played the game correctly. Approval is the payoff.
MF4
Alertmeipp and ampakineman. I don't appreciate your calling my quote "BS". It's the truth as I traded it. If you choose to think me a liar for some reason, that's your business, but at least be civil about it.
MF4
The slide from $3.10 to $2.60 was completely anticipated. Call it TA or whatever, but the bottom line is COR is in an uptrend due to positive anticipation. If/once the FDA clears the CX717 dosing restriction, the stock will double at least and hold above $5. Options will start trading. BP partnership rumors will drive to to another double around $10. There could then follow DNDN-like interest and exhuberance. This is a very reasonable scenario for the rest of 2007.
Currently, COR is trading very much by TA. As such, I would expect it to bottom in the $2.40-2.50 range on Friday. Then, accumulation for the rest of the day and a rally up towards $3.15 next week. I sold my options and trading shares in the $2.70-3.00 range. Not touching my core position. I'm looking for the final capitulation of the day traders and MF readers on Friday. I might be wrong by 10% one way or the other, but this pattern looks clear as day to me.
Good luck all,
MF4
I sold my last 20 Call options today. I was very disappointed that COR didn't rally to $3.15 earlier this week. That was my short-term target. I had bought 50 Call options at .05-.10 a month ago, so I can't bitch too much. I think I sold them for an average of .30, which is par value right now.
It just seems like the ASM was a bit of a let-down and there could be some additional small pullback in the next day or two. Of course, I'm probably completely wrong and the stock will rally hard into the close and hit $3.15 on Thursday, but with an option expiring in 7 more trading days, you gotta take some profit and be happy with it. Hindsight is 20:20. But a profit is a profit.
MF4
With all of the indications that Ampakines appear to work on, why the hell is COR selling for less than $5, not to mention $3??
I don't get it? Why isn't some BP tripping over itself to buy the whole IP estate for even $10/share?
As a layman, I don't understand the subtleties of drug development, but it seems Cortex has a really thick and valuable new drug pipeline. WTF?
MF4
That Rett's syndrome looks pretty lousy. Hopefully, Ampakines help with this disease.
MF4
Thoughts on the ASM?
What is likely to be said, or not said today that will affect COR stock price? I doubt they will announce an all-clear from the FDA today. So, if Stoll's message is "steady as she goes", does the stock price stay in the $2.60-3.10 range until FDA? What about announcing the aquisition of an unrelated in-licensing compound?
Any guesses?
MF4
OT: DNDN Holy crap, what a drop. Didn't this thing sell for $25 a few weeks ago? GFP made a few bucks on that casino ride.
MF4
For those who were wondering - GFP has clearly gotten back into Cortex in a big way. Why, I think he might have bet the farm on it. His tune has clearly changed. He reminds me of the old days, when GFP had his notebooks and was always inviting newbies to join the Cortex rocketship ride.
Yes, GFP sounds like a pumper again. It it true GFP? Are you gambling in the bio casino again? Say it isn't so?
MF4
File for regulatory approval before Oct 2007? Uh, doesn't CX516, CX717 and CX701 meet that criteria? File, doesn't mean approved, marketed, and available at a pharmacy, does it?
MF4
Meixatech, thanks for the explanation. Needless to say, my guess was wrong. I was, however correct about JerryDylan's moniker.
MF4
Meixatech,
Occasionally, I like to figure out someone's screen name. Judging from some of your writing, would it be fair to say that your name reflects what you do for a living? Maybe further guessing that you work with people that don't have a great command of the English language? And is your screen name said with a hint of humor? As in "Me ix a tech"? The correct meaning being "I am a tech"?
Just curious,
MF4
Doubt it. Looks like Elvis has left the building. Might even close down a cent. They just showed 300 shares at 2.97 after the close.
What does this all mean Jerry? Is this an example of "basing". Is today's action healthy? 682K shares is pretty good volume.
MF4
Perfect stasis at $3 with a half hour to go. Isn't this about the time the institutions get active? That's what it's gonna take to move this, but a 50K buy at the market would pop this .20 no problem.
MF4
The market seems to have reached equilibrium arount $3.05
I predict that it will hang around this level all day +/-.05 and will rally the last hour to close around $3.25 IMHO
MF4
After 20 minutes of trading, volume is 150K shares. There's a buyer at the market that's swallowing up supply every 5-10 minutes. Could be a big day........
MF4
Is COR halted? 1,700 pre-market and no volume after 5 minutes
I submit this and suddenly there's volume 40K shares around $3
MF4
I don't think the momo's have shown up yet. This thing could still rock into the upper 3's next week. The story is starting to leak out (MF articles), but the buying has been orderly.
COR was the 6th biggest AMEX advancer today though, so it's probably on the momo's radar now.
Looks like those May $2.5 Calls (at .25 a week ago) can be bought for .50 now. Nothing like a 100% return in a week. Is it time to double down?
Jerry, put down the brown acid and tell me where this is likely to consolidate, based on your charts.
MF4
Looks like some decent sized buys at the ask are happening heading into the close. Last sale $2.94 on 532K shares
UPDATE: 2 minutes left and someone's buying 10K blocks at the market. $2.95 555K shares
Final close: $2.95 on 569.1K shares. very orderly. Does this mean that Friday will be the gap up day? What say you JerryDylan?
MF4
I voted against Casamento. I always thought this guy was shady. CEO of Osteologix and COR board member. Osteo doesn't appear to trade anymore. He made the news for something today.
Anybody know if he is legit?
MF4
Ampa-man,
I agree with you and voted my shares against also.
MF4
Dominate,
Could you please cut and paste. I get a "session timed out" from your link. Thanks,
MF4
Alertmeipp,
I don't know about you, but I have already doubled down thanks to that little drop into the $1's. I have more shares now than I ever hoped to have. I'm comfortable with the bet.
Personally, I'd like it above $3 just so I can trade more options on it. But, I don't really sweat the gyrations. I've waited 12 years so far, what's another week or two?
MF4
Alert, No, Stoll won't raise more money here. 14 months of a hold, FDA consultants and clear data submitted.
He's just split two aces, dealer's showing a 6.
He's doubling down, with no insurance.
MF4
Who's the A-hole keeping the lid on this at $2.69?
He's trying to dump 9,000 shares. Let it ride a little. If it wasn't for this loser, COR might drift higher.
Jerry, is this expected price action before a push above $3?
MF4
DOW breaks through 13,000. COR drops early to let the MM accumulate shares before taking it through $3.
Film at 11
MF4
AmpaMan,
That's just a silly idea. They have hundreds of thousands of options on COR. Why would they tie up cash by owning shares? Are the shares paying a dividend?
Maybe when the shares are in the high teens and stable, they could think about exercising options, but there is no reason in the world that they would want to tie up cash and own shares outright currently, no matter how bright the future. The options have them covered.
MF4
That was a quicker pop than I had anticipated. Looks like the $2.50 May Calls are trading above .30 already.
If I had to guess, Wednesday looks like it will be a strong day.
Could be a perfect storm with the DOW set to break through 13,000 this week, there will likely be a torrent of green. DOW maybe up 250 points and COR could get caught in the updraft as those sitting on the sidelines become convinced that the days of sub-$3 shares are just about done.
MF4
Blade,
The only options left for COR are the May series that expire May 18. The reason why there are no other options is that the last time COR was above $3 was Oct 2006. At that time, May was the furthest month out.
Not all stocks that trade above $3 offer options, so I assume that a market maker submits a request to trade certain options, but that's just a guess. Presumably COR would offer a new series at least 6 months out when it gets and stays above $3 for a month??? Since, it would probably become actively traded again at that point, and could happen within the next month or two.
Does it make sense to purchase the May options? Possibly. It feels like there will be a slow and steady rise possibly up to $3 in anticipation of the dosing restriction being lifted. Buying the stock seems a decent bet right now.
There is the potential for an early release by the FDA, which would probably provide a large pop. I think the last time they released the hold, before we all realized that the dosing restiction effectively strangled the stock, it popped to $3.81 before drifting down. In that case the $.30 options would quintuple. 500% return may be worth some gamble??
As I've often stated, buying COR at $2.50 is like buying a long term call that never expires. Of course, in that case, the stock is also free.
MF4
AlDavid,
Regarding options, search some of my recent posts. I've elaborated scenarios with GFP fairly extensively. As far as options on COR goes, once the stock gets comfortably above $3, assuming it happens this year, some options will automatically begin trading again. I'm not sure what it will take for LEAPs??
But, if you are a long term holder and want to buy LEAPs, it will cost you quite a bit in premium. For stocks in the $15 range, a 2 year leap will have about a $2.50 premium cost. In COR case, you can buy the stock today (which doesn't expire) for that price.
If you anticipate COR will get to $15, you could buy 9-12 month $15 calls when the stock is at $5. It might cost .30/share. When the stock hits $15, sell the shares that equal the options you hold. Then for the length of time the options are still alive, you are protected in each direction. When the options expire, you can buy back at a cheaper price, or if the stock is higher, exercise your options to buy back at $15. You'll have only lost the premium.
A PUT option is the opposite of a CALL in the sense that if you own a PUT, you can force someone to buy your shares at a certain price. This would be a pure way to protect your profits in the event of a sudden share price drop. Lets say COR jumps to $15 in a month (like DNDN). Say you're willing to ride COR higher but you want to protect in case it drops back to $5. Buy the $12.50 PUT for the next month out. That way, if COR goes to $20, you still own the stock. But, if it goes to $5, you can exercise your PUT option and sell your position at $12.50. You can buy back in at $5 and wait for a recovery.
One thing that confuses people about options is who are you buying from or forcibly selling to? Answer: the exchange handles the transactions anonymously. At expiration all options that are in the money are automatically assigned to the writer of the Call or Put. If I wrote (sold) the option you bought, I would get a statement saying that I sold 100 shares at $5 (assuming I had sold you one $5 Call a few weeks earlier). Or, my statement would say that I bought 100 shares at $12.50 (assuming I had sold you a Put a few weeks earlier). Also in my statement would be proceeds I recieved from selling the option a few weeks earlier. In summary, an option that is sold and exercised will show two transactions on a statement: 1) the purchase or sale of the option, and 2) the purchase or sale of the underlying stock.
In the case where the option expires worthless, the seller recieves the premium as cash in his account, with no further transactions.
I hope that explains options,
MF4
Any idea why the AH quote is up to $2.40? Is this because it now looks like no more than 60 days for the "all clear"?
Sounds like COR is very busy. Perhaps reviewing some new term sheets? I imagine some of the interested parties from last year have been patiently waiting for clarification of the histo issue, with all negotiations pending that event. Does anyone think interested parties would be willing to make offers as of today's status of COR?
MF4
At $2.40, The expectation of having the hold lifted is NOT priced in. Near $5 when the hold is completely removed.
MF4
GFP, I say no more than 60 days before the FDA issues their final ruling. Feel free to wait until July to try to get back in.
MF4
I agree that the FDA submission appears confident. So, now we wait 30-60 days. That gives those May $2.50 options some value. Anything can happen soon.
OT: I was on the phone all day yesterday to HP tech support in the Phillipines trying to get my new Vista laptop to do a few things. Boy was that frustrating. I guess out-sourcing makes sense financially, but I would have paid a few more bucks to reach someone that spoke English as well as myself. Also, Microsoft could have made Vista better out of the box.
Today is a new day. I'm hoping the frustration of yesterday, and Cortex's one month data submission delay are behind me and I can look forward to COR finally putting this long 15 month delay behind it so Ampakines can finally help the long suffering stock holders and potential patients.
MF4
Are you sure it hasn't arrived and been forwarded to the FDA already? How would we know it's status?
MF4
GFP,
You are a rather skittish investor. Has that been sucessful for you over the years?
MF4
It also might just be one of Garren's gamblers picking up a 200K position at the market.
MF4
COR hits a low of $2.01 then suddenly it's taping at $2.27 on 200,000 shares 2 hours into trading????????
Something's up? Perhaps the projected timeframes of the posters are way too negative?
MF4
GFP, just listen to me and you would have sold in the $23s. I do great when not standing to gain personally.
MF4
GFP, 16 months of needless delays. If it goes that long, that would be absurd! But if it did, it would just add to the list of things wrong with America these days:
1. No internet gambling by credit card - thanks Tom Delay for letting Harrah's buy you.
2. Government theft of residence by Eminent Domain.
3. Political correctness - see Imus's firing
4. Losing free speech - see Imus's firing
5. Inept two party system with leaders that are idiots.
6. Thinking you can win a war against an ideology by occupying that country. Then not admitting your mistake.
7. Keeping a plant that grows naturally and relieves side effects of chemotherapy illegal and demonizing it.
8. Paying 50% of ones income to taxes (add em up).
9. FDA that punishes small, innovative, cash-poor companies.
Yeah, I know, if you don't like it, move. Maybe, it's time to scrap the crap and throw a revolution? Would anybody here show up?
MF4