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Time to play a little game where you win (a little) both ways:
Sell some of your PIOE shares at $1.10 or so and wait. You win by locking in some profit at that level.
When the price retreats further, buy them back at 80-90 cents or so. An increase back to $1.10 and you win again and have returned to your beginning position.
If the price never retreats but goes up, you can win again by selling at the new higher level.
The game is a variation on that old standard: "Buy Low Sell High".
Never forget that the risk of making buys and sells is not necessarily worse than just holding. You can lose your shirt either way. I like to do some trading rather than just hold. I feel more in control.
Right now I am waiting for $1.50 and would probably exit big time if we got there.
Prep for a test of $1.20, I'm hoping. We too low right now.
It's all timing, isn't it? If you sell, you are timing such that you can repurchase later at a lower price and miss some of the losses. But if you hold, you are still timing that there will be a recovery, and if there isn't you will accrue some losses. Timing either way-- can't avoid it.
I do not feel that it is right that buy and hold is always the best answer. Many stocks are on a decline to zero. (You could say all stocks are, given a long enough time frame.)
My best guess is to try to figure when the market becomes poor and it really is best to stay away from stocks in large proportion of one's investments for an extended time. I tend to not like to be wrong when I get out but the market makes gains. But being wrong at this might be worse than staying in when the market continues to lose.
Right now I am guessing that weakening toward September is fairly normal, so I am holding in my pink issues. But I am making a little change toward conservative in my 401k, which I will probably reverse by November.
But don't listen to me. My track record ain't great.
Better not go too slow, Chemist. If doncamel is a big buyer, he may push us back to $1.45 by himself!
I hear you. On about August 1, I was attracted by the low price to add a few shares, but found I couldn't purchase any at the ask. I chose to purchase above the ask. I don't think I've seen that with other issues.
When I would try a limit order at the ask, it wouldn't execute.
Raising the bid doesn't get a fill for me. I could try doing a market order to see what limit orders are out there and maybe get something below ask. But I don't like doing a market order and just holding my breath to see how much above the ask the order will fill at.
It seems a little shady to me.
What do you see as the big reasons that TMPS' share price has collapsed from 30 cents to 6 cents since April? (Aside from Malone's repetitive downward price forecasts.) Do you feel that it is mostly the passage of time with no new contracts and costs associated with that? Or are there weaknesses that are provably getting worse, in your opinion?
To have planes readying for service seems like it would be a positive, and to locate new offices in an airport vicinity does so as well. But share price doesn't believe so at this point.
The news uncovered on this board alone should be enough to push PIOE back up to its previous higher trading range! Thanks for all of the research that everyone is sharing here. It is very much appreciated.
So different than other boards, where they say useless things like, "Good morning, XXXX!" or "XXXX, Long & Strong!" or "XXXX bids are going to be whacked so fast!" etc. etc. etc., and even more meaningless drivel and hype.
Low profile because PIOE is merely RCP's device, in my opinion.
As I have often said, RCP considers itself to be "manager-owned" on its website (even though P10 Holdings says on its website that it owns RCP). I allow that both can be true, especially since RCP people are on the PIOE Board.
My assessment is that RCP fund managers each own their own activities since they get probably the lion's share of the earnings produced. But PIOE has the NOLs and is a useful device to save on taxes. The lenders backing PIOE are covered as well since what PIOE receives mainly pays off principal and interest.
It probably matters little to RCP whether RCP owns PIOE or PIOE owns RCP except that for tax purposes, PIOE had to be the parent company, I believe.
I am very happy that ACPW did not shed its shareholders in their bankruptcy and they are now plugged in to PIOE/RCP. Very happy! I also believe that PIOE shareholders will see appreciation of share value as the business expands-- just like the people who sell them printer ink cartridges will see more sales as the company grows.
This makes for probably a very safe and slow growth for us shareholders. But leaving the pink sheets and opening the doors to perhaps a new set of "owners" does not fit their aspirations, in my opinion.
You are right again. I use the term "company fundamentals" or "fundamentals" to mean present conditions, but I also consider how these conditions might affect future growth. It just happens to line up with a definition I found:
"By looking at the economics of a business, such as the balance sheet, the income statement, overall management and cash flow, investors are looking at a company's fundamentals, which help determine the company's health as well as its growth prospects."-Investopedia
So my point yesterday is that the recent price action does not seem to be happening because of any degradation of "the balance sheet, the income statement, overall management and cash flow", the "fundamentals". I don't think it has much to do with the company's outlook either, which remains that management is expecting earnings growth. My opinion is that selling is a little high because traders don't want to wait for it to happen. "Opportunity cost", as Paideia calls it.
Although I am also impatient to see PIOE appreciate, I am currently at my highest level of shares owned in PIOE. That is probably because my other pink sheet "investments" (i.e., "crap shoots") are getting slammed lately. Not the kind of "opportunities" I was hoping for...
Good point, but I will stick with trader-psychology reasons for the 20% decline.
A second quarter of negative earnings could have put pressure on the share price if it was unanticipated. But I didn't see that as a surprise or disappointment in view of what the management has laid out in having earnings growth later rather than now.
My point is that I think that the fundamentals of PIOE are strong and getting stronger, and that the share price decline doesn't spring from a business downturn or other sub-par results. If true, that is good news.
Sellers are merely impatient for awhile, without much good reason for it in the company's numbers. That's just my opinion.
A question about company fundamentals:
The company has lost about 20% of its share value recently, and I have attributed it completely to trading psychology, having to do with the release of the quarterly report that shed little new light or new items to be encouraged about. To me, the report was mainly an update on an upward track that had been laid out previously.
But does anyone see any fundamental reason for the 20% loss relating to earnings or reported company plans or outlook?
The falling share price may have more to do with timing than anything else. Fundamentals have not weakened, in my opinion.
The recent report wasn't bad, but it's a long wait until November. The sellers have overwhelmed for now because of their limited expectation of changes and therefore sent the price downward.
Next we may get the lower price attracting some new or returning buyers.
It has been more than a month since the quarter closed, so there is still the chance that a new acquisition or positive development may be announced.
My guess is that we never go as low as $1.
Good for you. But I would be frustrated to be buying at 10 cents when the bid/ask I am seeing is .07/.09 or thereabouts.
Just raised my bid a little. It is higher than best bid on Level II. It does not appear.
The bid size should be large enough. TMPS is not halted.
The OTCX ask has changed a few minutes ago, though, so something is happening.
??????
I tried buying at the ask today and poof! the ask went higher, so no execution.
My bid is now higher than the supposed best bid on Level II. Something is wrong.
Volatility is expected after reporting, but the paint should be drying in a few days. Right now, the new trading range looks to be lower.
But it may be that late exiters are getting burnt a little. I understand that we have extra sellers and only a low share volume. Bad timing to leave! Ah well, sometimes you have to pay extra for the convenience of leaving right when you want to.
Hopefully, a few more buyers will come in.
Worst morning to sell PIOE since the earnings were not in the positive surprise zone. But dollar volume is only around $100k as obviously some exiting is occurring.
Some folks smelled it coming, shown by a declining trading range lately. But we may recover to the $1.30s by later this afternoon. The $1.20s look about sold out on Level II. I don't feel that the stock is overvalued today.
I am at my maximum investment at this time because I couldn't resist that there would be blockbuster news coming in the report, so I took a hit with the rest of you. But I expect a bounce since the numbers are healthy and management is trustworthy.
It is tempting to invest elsewhere with flat to downward trading going on here, but are you also hedging your bets on a negative reaction to a possibly neutral 2nd quarter report?
Glad to see you posting again even though PIOE news is hard to come by lately.
I agree for my part that I don't know what I expect PIOE to report for their 2nd quarter. My only thought is that it will probably show the improved earnings trend that they have spoken of in the past, which they say should develop.
Meanwhile, recently PIOE shares selling is slightly outweighing buying, the fundamental cause of share price decline. Why? Maybe people have other investments to fund. I guess a share price improvement is not expected.
But of course you are right that often the price can drift downward before a sharp rise. This is the scenario that I hope for, that good news has occurred but has not leaked, and its report will cause a favorable reaction in the price. I believe RCP and PIOE managers are very ethical in their dealings, so I don't expect leaks or share price monkey business from that group.
I just added to my losing position here.
I hope the news is as good as some are saying, and this gets out of the red for me. I've been in for quite a while and need 17 cents to break even.
I've changed my strategy for PIOE. I was going to sell out (maybe temporarily) at $1.49. But I haven't been able to get it for several weeks of lying in wait.
I cancelled that order and will see what happens when they report the quarter any day now. (As you know, they broke their report-date pattern by reporting in early May. This quarter ended in June, so will early August indicate a new pattern, or will a different release date occur?)
I think that a continuation of the same story will lead to some further share price deterioration, but hopefully not much. But better than expected earnings, or a demonstration of earnings power, that so far management has merely talked about, may lift the stock past $1.49.
I am concerned that anticipation of/speculation on any possible surprise good news has so far not moved the share price upward. In fact, the price is performing more like a disappointment is expected.
Today is Malone Deep Discount Day, 8-cents mission accomplished!
6 cents is lousy even if it was only 2 shares!
Which? Blockbuster news or $0.08 Malone Day arrives?
Eight cents is getting too close for comfort.
Re: "5-year lockup period"
I admit I don't understand the restrictions of the lock-up, so here it is, from the audited Dec. 31, 2017 Annual Report:
The stock lockdown is 5 years. I am sure that I read this somewhere in the P10 press releases or reports. But, I looked and can't find it or I would give you the link.
PIOE headed off any possible pre-report speculation with their earlier-than-usual report in May (as if anyone here is speculating at this point).
We are wise to them this time. The quarter ended June 30, so it could happen any day, especially with Powers not setting timing (if he did that when he was there).
But, alas, there are perhaps no speculators who want to buy maximum shares in front of any news.
And also, as they move forward up their earnings curve, will it be enough to be higher than what is baked into the price already? We have already been told to expect improvement.
The top of your trading range would be very tempting to me right now.
But, I am not large enough to move the price on days when even 50,000 trade. I have moved the price when the market dries up, though.
I'm not going to sell like that. I am holding firmly to my Ask when I decide to leave. It will probably take some time to execute.
Amen.
I've been in and out (partially) of PIOE, as I have said before. The risk of missing blockbuster news seems low.
One of my biggest worries about PIOE is
that the paint
indeed
is
DRY.
No movement after that...
Back to the trading range. The departure was very short. Glad to be invested here along with all of you.
There are many views on the 2008 crash and slow economic recovery, and yours is very mainstream. But how do you see the risk of holding PIOE leading up to the midterms? I have a lot invested there and would be concerned if I thought a huge market correction is on the way. But I don't and I also see PIOE as on the fairly safe side of the investment spectrum.
Market seems sound to me & PIOE unaffected more than many by a downturn, in my opinion. When the blue chips crash, speculators might seek something like a PIOE that if it is nothing else, it is stable. Of course, severe pressure in the world of investments is tough on everyone, including RCP and PIOE.
But I see the midterm elections as a non-event to positive in the market.
I'm not intending to get into the politically controversial aspects of it. But one fundamental fact is germane. The Republicans tend to be pro-business or pro-corporations. The Democrats tend to be more regulatory, trying to equalize wealth among the citizens, which can be hard on corporate earnings. Both views have their merits, of course.
And second, the stock markets like a pro-business government, obviously.
These major trends were visible as the George Bush presidency was winding down and also at the Trump election. In the case of Bush, Democrats were widely expected to take over maybe two years before the 2008 election, and the market became under pressure. In Trump's case, his election was a surprise, so the upward movement in the market didn't begin in earnest until then. I am not speaking about personalities as much as which party will be regulating commerce.
As you can guess, I do not subscribe to the notion that you measure a President or party by Inauguration Day to Inauguration Day market results. The markets are forward-looking, so that measurement is utterly ridiculous.
That said, either the upcoming midterms will allow the GOP to continue in power, or else we will go into a gridlock situation. Both scenarios are not bad for the markets, in my opinion, because regulations and taxes should not be unfriendly.
So be not afraid.
By the way, of course Trump and the GOP are not business-friendly in every way. Look at what they are trying to do with cutting off inexpensive migrant labor sources, tariffs and restaurants that throw out their constituents! I am only speaking of general tendencies and public perceptions.
Looks like you crashed the trading range, hahahahaha.
$1.35/$1.37 bid/ask is perhaps that boredom factor setting in.
Ended up 7500 @ $1.39. Naturally the price sank a little further afterward, but no complaint. I waited a few weeks and PIOE dropped out of its trading range by just a little today.
These additional shares puts my holding into better balance with my other investments, but I may overweight PIOE later on if I get any whiff at all of a better than already published news item or earnings clue.
That would be $0.08, just like Malone says all the time!
I'm back in PIOE full force (for me).
I also appear to have been the last buyer left for over $1000-worth of the stock. Level 2 shows all bids as 870 shares or less clear down to $0.64 bid level. The only ask larger than that is 4000 @ $1.47.
I am concerned that sheer boredom might produce more sellers short term.
So far not burnt by being partially out of slow-rolling PIOE. I am having nice gains in CELZ, but that is DANGEROUS. It could go anywhere FAST.
As I keep saying, I don't want to miss a run-up into news in PIOE. News came earlier than usual in May, so there was zero speculation ahead of it. So speculation may come relatively earlier in this quarter.
I'm sitting at $0.1353 if you want out.
Trading curiosity: my $1.38 order didn't go first.
I have a good-til-cancelled in for 8500 shares at $1.38, which has carried over since maybe Wednesday. No special conditions or you wouldn't see it there on CDEL.
Somehow 700 shares sold ahead of me. Maybe 100 or so did that yesterday, too. I'm not sure how they got ahead of me since $1.38 was a new price at the time. But I know that many orders are hidden from Level 2, such as "all or none" or other special conditions. Perhaps there were some older than mine.
It may not be a bad thing if MM did a small trade to put the price at $1.38 to attract attention. It may actually help my larger order to fill if the price is now there. But I don't know how these sorts of things work. I am not suspecting foul play, at any rate. Just ignorant of how trading works at this level of complexity.